Autonomic nervous system activity as risk predictor in the medical emergency department: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate heart rate deceleration capacity, an electrocardiogram-based marker of autonomic nervous system activity, as risk predictor in a medical emergency department and to test its incremental predictive value to the modified early warning score. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Medical emergency department of a large university hospital. PATIENTS: Five thousand seven hundred thirty consecutive patients of either sex in sinus rhythm, who were admitted to the medical emergency department of the University of Tübingen, Germany, between November 2010 and March 2012. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Deceleration capacity of heart rate was calculated within the first minutes after emergency department admission. The modified early warning score was assessed from respiratory rate, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, body temperature, and level of consciousness as previously described. Primary endpoint was intrahospital mortality; secondary endpoints included transfer to the ICU as well as 30-day and 180-day mortality. One hundred forty-two patients (2.5%) reached the primary endpoint. Deceleration capacity was highly significantly lower in nonsurvivors than survivors (2.9 ± 2.1 ms vs 5.6 ± 2.9 ms; p < 0.001) and yielded an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.780 (95% CI, 0.745-0.813). The modified early warning score model yielded an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.706 (0.667-0.750). Implementing deceleration capacity into the modified early warning score model led to a highly significant increase of the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve to 0.804 (0.770-0.835; p < 0.001 for difference). Deceleration capacity was also a highly significant predictor of 30-day and 180-day mortality as well as transfer to the ICU. CONCLUSIONS: Deceleration capacity is a strong and independent predictor of short-term mortality among patients admitted to a medical emergency department.

Sex-specific differences in adverse outcome events among patients with atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether women with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a higher risk of adverse events than men during long-term follow-up since controversial data have been published. METHODS: In the context of two very similar observational multicentre cohort studies, we prospectively followed 3894 patients (28% women) with previously documented AF for a median of 4.02 (3.00-5.83) years. The primary outcome was a composite of ischaemic stroke, myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death. Secondary outcomes included the individual components of the composite outcome, hospitalisation for heart failure, major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding, stroke or systemic embolism and non-cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Mean age was 73.1 years in women vs 70.8 years in men. The incidence of the primary endpoint in women versus men was 2.46 vs 3.24 per 100 patient-years, respectively (adjusted HR (aHR) 0.74, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.94; p=0.01). Women died less frequently from cardiovascular (aHR 0.57, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.78; p<0.001) and non-cardiovascular causes (aHR 0.68, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.98; p=0.04). There were no significant sex-specific differences in stroke (incidence 1.05 vs 1.00; aHR 1.02, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.49, p=0.93), myocardial infarction (incidence 0.67 vs 0.72; aHR 0.98, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.57, p=0.94), major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding (incidence 4.51 vs 4.34; aHR 0.95, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.15, p=0.63) or heart failure hospitalisation (incidence 3.28 vs 3.07; aHR 1.06, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.32, p=0.60). CONCLUSION: In this large study of patients with established AF, women had a lower risk of death than men, but there were no sex-specific differences in other adverse outcomes.

Long-term risk of adverse outcomes according to atrial fibrillation type.

Sustained forms of atrial fibrillation (AF) may be associated with a higher risk of adverse outcomes, but few if any long-term studies took into account changes of AF type and co-morbidities over time. We prospectively followed 3843 AF patients and collected information on AF type and co-morbidities during yearly follow-ups. The primary outcome was a composite of stroke or systemic embolism (SE). Secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction, hospitalization for congestive heart failure (CHF), bleeding and all-cause mortality. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates were used to compare hazard ratios (HR) according to AF type. At baseline 1895 (49%), 1046 (27%) and 902 (24%) patients had paroxysmal, persistent and permanent AF and 3234 (84%) were anticoagulated. After a median (IQR) follow-up of 3.0 (1.9; 4.2) years, the incidence of stroke/SE was 1.0 per 100 patient-years. The incidence of myocardial infarction, CHF, bleeding and all-cause mortality was 0.7, 3.0, 2.9 and 2.7 per 100 patient-years, respectively. The multivariable adjusted (a) HRs (95% confidence interval) for stroke/SE were 1.13 (0.69; 1.85) and 1.27 (0.83; 1.95) for time-updated persistent and permanent AF, respectively. The corresponding aHRs were 1.23 (0.89, 1.69) and 1.45 (1.12; 1.87) for all-cause mortality, 1.34 (1.00; 1.80) and 1.30 (1.01; 1.67) for CHF, 0.91 (0.48; 1.72) and 0.95 (0.56; 1.59) for myocardial infarction, and 0.89 (0.70; 1.14) and 1.00 (0.81; 1.24) for bleeding. In this large prospective cohort of AF patients, time-updated AF type was not associated with incident stroke/SE.

Frailty to predict unplanned hospitalization, stroke, bleeding, and death in atrial fibrillation.

AIMS: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and frailty are common, and the prevalence is expected to rise further. We aimed to investigate the prevalence of frailty and the ability of a frailty index (FI) to predict unplanned hospitalizations, stroke, bleeding, and death in patients with AF. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with known AF were enrolled in a prospective cohort study in Switzerland. Information on medical history, lifestyle factors, and clinical measurements were obtained. The primary outcome was unplanned hospitalization; secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality, bleeding, and stroke. The FI was measured using a cumulative deficit approach, constructed according to previously published criteria and divided into three groups (non-frail, pre-frail, and frail). The association between frailty and outcomes was assessed using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models. Of the 2369 included patients, prevalence of pre-frailty and frailty was 60.7% and 10.6%, respectively. Pre-frailty and frailty were associated with a higher risk of unplanned hospitalizations [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.49-2.22; P < 0.001; and aHR 3.59, 95% CI 2.78-4.63, P < 0.001], all-cause mortality (aHR 5.07, 95% CI 2.43-10.59; P < 0.001; and aHR 16.72, 95% CI 7.75-36.05; P < 0.001), and bleeding (aHR 1.53, 95% CI 1.11-2.13; P = 0.01; and aHR 2.46, 95% CI 1.61-3.77; P < 0.001). Frailty, but not pre-frailty, was associated with a higher risk of stroke (aHR 3.29, 95% CI 1.2-8.39; P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Over two-thirds of patients with AF are pre-frail or frail. These patients have a high risk for unplanned hospitalizations and other adverse events. These findings emphasize the need to carefully evaluate these patients. However, whether screening for pre-frailty and frailty and targeted prevention strategies improve outcomes needs to be shown in future studies. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier number: NCT02105844.

Association of psychosocial factors with all-cause hospitalizations in patients with atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: A high burden of cardiovascular comorbidities puts patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) at high risk for hospitalizations, but the role of other factors is less clear. HYPOTHESIS: To determine the relationship between psychosocial factors and the risk of unplanned hospitalizations in AF patients. METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study of 2378 patients aged 65 or older with previously diagnosed AF across 14 centers in Switzerland. Marital status and education level were defined as social factors, depression and health perception were psychological components. The pre-defined outcome was unplanned all-cause hospitalization. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 2.0 years, a total of 1713 hospitalizations occurred in 37% of patients. Compared to patients who were married, adjusted rate ratios (aRR) for all-cause hospitalizations were 1.28 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-1.69) for singles, 1.31 (95%CI, 1.06-1.62) for divorced patients, and 1.02 (95%CI, 0.82-1.25) for widowed patients. The aRRs for all-cause hospitalizations across increasing quartiles of health perception were 1.0 (highest health perception), 1.15 (95%CI, 0.84-1.59), 1.25 (95%CI, 1.03-1.53), and 1.66 (95%CI, 1.34-2.07). No different hospitalization rates were observed in patients with a secondary or primary or less education as compared to patients with a college degree (aRR, 1.06; 95%CI, 0.91-1.23 and 1.05; 95%CI, 0.83-1.33, respectively). Presence of depression was not associated with higher hospitalization rates (aRR, 0.94; 95%CI, 0.68-1.29). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that psychosocial factors, including marital status and health perception, are strongly associated with the occurrence of hospitalizations in AF patients. Targeted psychosocial support interventions may help to avoid unnecessary hospitalizations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02105844.

Atrial fibrillation for internists: current practice.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) has become a global epidemic and puts affected patients at high risk of adverse events. In this review we summarise the current evidence on risk factors and complications of AF, describe current treatment strategies, and outline new fields of research. Current evidence shows that hypertension and obesity are the two most important modifiable risk factors for the development of AF. Patients with AF face an increased stroke risk. Oral anticoagulation reduces this risk substantially. Mainly for reasons of safety and ease of use, non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants are preferred for stroke prevention. Rate and rhythm control interventions remain important and are mainly used for symptom control in AF patients. Rate control is recommended as an initial treatment and in patients with a low or absent symptom burden. Following the advent of AF ablation 20 years ago, the chances of successful sustained rhythm control have increased. Nevertheless, the procedural risks, although low, must be discussed with the patient in the context of the potential benefits. Heart failure and AF often coexist, which creates a further challenge for optimal AF management. Recent studies have shown that AF patients have a high burden of silent brain lesions, and that these lesions are associated with cognitive dysfunction. A better understanding of these interrelationships may eventually help the development of new prevention and treatment strategies to decrease the burden and complications associated with AF.

Incidence and Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation Progression.

Background The incidence and predictors of atrial fibrillation (AF) progression are currently not well defined, and clinical AF progression partly overlaps with rhythm control interventions (RCIs). Methods and Results We assessed AF type and intercurrent RCIs during yearly follow-ups in 2869 prospectively followed patients with paroxysmal or persistent AF. Clinical AF progression was defined as progression from paroxysmal to nonparoxysmal or from persistent to permanent AF. An RCI was defined as pulmonary vein isolation, electrical cardioversion, or new treatment with amiodarone. During a median follow-up of 3 years, the incidence of clinical AF progression was 5.2 per 100 patient-years, and 10.9 per 100 patient-years for any RCI. Significant predictors for AF progression were body mass index (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.05), heart rate (HR per 5 beats/min increase, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08), age (HR per 5-year increase 1.19; 95% CI, 1.13-1.27), systolic blood pressure (HR per 5 mm Hg increase, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00-1.05), history of hyperthyroidism (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.16-2.52), stroke (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.19-1.88), and heart failure (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.34-2.13). Regular physical activity (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.66-0.98) and previous pulmonary vein isolation (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.53-0.90) showed an inverse association. Significant predictive factors for RCIs were physical activity (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.20-1.68), AF-related symptoms (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.47-2.30), age (HR per 5-year increase, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.85-0.92), and paroxysmal AF (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.51-0.73). Conclusions Cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities were key predictors of clinical AF progression. A healthy lifestyle may therefore reduce the risk of AF progression.

[Mechanic valve prosthesis and pregnancy: Is Phenprocoumon replaceable?]. / Kunstklappe in der Schwangerschaft: Ist Phenprocoumon ersetzbar? - Fall 2 / 2016.

HISTORY AND ADMISSION FINDINGS: We report the case of a 30-year-old pregnant patient with mechanical valve replacement in mitral and aortic position. She had discontinued Phenprocoumon-treatment in the 5+4 week of pregnancy by herself. Because of rheumatic fever she had undergone a mechanical aortic and mitral valve replacement 12 years ago. Due to a thrombosis of the mitral valve, an acute reoperation had to be done 5 years later. 2 years ago, a partially re-thrombosis of the mechanical mitral valve was treated by intravenous thrombolysis. These complications had been probably due to incomplicance. The patient had experienced 3 abortions before. INVESTIGATIONS: The vaginal sonography determined an intact gestation. The laboratory test revealed an INR of 1.2. The transesophageal echocardiography showed a partially thrombosed mechanical mitral valve. The abdominal ultrasonography detected an embolic splenic infarction. DIAGNOSIS, TREATMENT AND CLINICAL COURSE: These findings were consistent with partially thrombosed mechanical mitral valve with thromboembolic splenic infarction among incompetent oral anticoagulation. After initial heparinization with under twice daily control of the partial thromboplastin time the joint decision was made to restart Phenprocoumon (target INR 2.5 to 3.5, and additional ASS 100 mg /day). 9 days later the patient had a missed abortion. An uncomplicated curettage was performed under therapeutic i.v. heparinization. CONCLUSIONS: The use of coumarins in pregnancy carries a fetal risk. But it is the most secure anticoagulation after a mechanical valve replacement, especially in high-risk patients. Alternatives are heparins. They don't cross the placenta but are associated with a slightly elevated risk of thromboembolism.