Association between brown sugar intake and decreased risk of cancer in the Amami islands region, Japan.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although excess white sugar intake imposes various health burdens, brown sugar is high in minerals, polyphenols, and polycosanol. However, few epidemiological studies have assessed brown sugar intake for health benefit. People in the Amami islands region, with a relatively high proportion of individuals with longevity, consume brown sugar as a type of refreshment. This cohort study was conducted in Amami to clarify the association of brown sugar intake with mortality risk and cancer incidence. METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN: Participants were recruited from the general population of Amami as part of the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort Study. The number of eligible participants was 5004 (2057 men and 2947 women). During the median follow-up period of 13.4 years, 274 deaths and 338 cases of cancer were observed. HRs and 95% CIs were estimated using the Cox proportional hazard model, after adjusting for sugar-related and other variables. RESULTS: After adjusting for their related confounding factors, brown sugar intake was associated with decreased HRs and a decreasing trend for all-site and stomach cancer incidence (p = 0.001 and 0.017, respectively) in women and men, and for breast cancer incidence (p = 0.034) in women. Additionally, a decreasing trend in the HRs for lung cancer incidence was observed among never and ex-smokers (p = 0.039). Decreased HRs for overall death, cancer, and cardiovascular disease were not apparent. CONCLUSIONS: Brown sugar intake was associated with decreased risk of all-site, stomach, and breast cancer incidences in the Amami population.

Changes in body composition and low blood urea nitrogen level related to an increase in the prevalence of fatty liver over 20 years: A cross-sectional study.

AIM: Qualitative body composition (BC) change, characterized by the combination of visceral fat gain and muscle loss, is drawing attention as a risk factor for fatty liver (FL). The present study aimed to describe trends in BC change and its association with FL in the Japanese population. METHODS: Data from medical checkups carried out on 56 639 Japanese participants every 5 years from 1997 to 2017 were analyzed. Fat mass index (FMI) and fat-free mass index (FFMI) were calculated using body mass index and body fat percentage. Subjects were divided into two groups according to deviations from the correlation line of FMI and FFMI as the reference: FMI-predominant BC and FFM-dominant BC. Fatty liver was determined using abdominal ultrasonography. RESULTS: The prevalence of FL significantly increased from 27.3% to 42.7% in men and from 18.0% to 25.5% in women. The prevalence of FMI predominance significantly increased from 33.6% to 43.9% in men and from 29.1% to 47.0% in women. Fat mass index predominance was independently associated with FL in men and women (odds ratio: 1.96 and 1.94, respectively). Serum blood urea nitrogen level was inversely associated with FL in men and women (0.958 and 0.961, respectively) and significantly decreased from 15.8 to 14.9 mg/dl in men and from 15.1 to 14.0 mg/dl in women. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing FMI-predominant BC and decreasing serum blood urea nitrogen level could account for the increase in the prevalence of FL over 20 years. We believe that these factors stem from current lifestyle habits in Japan.

Gender differences in the risk factors associated with atherosclerosis by carotid intima-media thickness, plaque score, and pulse wave velocity.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death, but the risk factors for CVD differ between men and women. Although carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), carotid plaque, and pulse wave velocity (PWV) are useful atherosclerotic parameters, patient backgrounds have differed in previous reports. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate gender differences in associations between these three parameters and traditional risk factors in the same population. We enrolled 3888 participants (women: 743) who underwent routine health checkups. High IMT, high carotid plaque score (PS), or high brachial-ankle PWV (baPWV) were defined by the median values for each gender. We analyzed the association between each parameter and atherosclerotic risk factors, such as obesity, smoking, blood pressure (BP) elevation, impaired fasting glucose (IFG), and dyslipidemia (DL). In both sexes, BP elevation was the only common risk factor for high IMT, high PS, and high baPWV in the multivariate logistic regression analysis adjusted for age. In men, IFG and DL were common risk factors for the three parameters. Furthermore, obesity was an additional risk factor for high IMT and smoking was an additional risk factor for high IMT and high PS. In contrast, in women, obesity, DL, or IFG was an additional risk factor for high IMT, high PS, or high baPWV, respectively. The risk factors for IMT, PS, and baPWV differ in in men and women. The management for atherosclerotic risk factors on early stage should be considered in terms of gender-specific risk factors.

Sex-specific relationship between abdominal obesity and new-onset atrial fibrillation in the general Japanese population.

The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is expected to increase with increasing obesity and number of geriatric patients in Japan. Although higher body mass index and abdominal obesity are associated with an increased risk of AF, the sex-specific relationship between abdominal obesity and new-onset AF is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the sex-specific relationship between abdominal obesity and new-onset AF. This retrospective study evaluated the annual health checkup data of 67,379 adults (33,562 males; age, 54 ± 10 years) without baseline AF from April 2008 to March 2016. Participants were grouped according to waist circumference (WC): large-WC group (males, ≥ 85 cm; females, ≥ 90 cm) and normal-WC group. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the strength of the association between abdominal obesity and new-onset AF, overall and separately for males and females. During a median follow-up of 5 years, 280 (0.4%) new cases of AF were recorded. Univariate analysis revealed a significant increase in new-onset AF in males (odds ratio [OR], 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.49-2.60; p < 0.001) but not in females (OR, 1.69; 95% CI, 0.96-2.97; p = 0.068) in the large-WC group. After adjusting for clinical variables, multivariate analysis revealed that a large WC was significantly associated with new-onset AF in males (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.31-2.36; p < 0.001) but not in females (OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.68-2.18; p = 0.514). Abdominal obesity is associated with an increased risk of new-onset AF in men.

Distribution and Characteristics of Hypouricemia within the Japanese General Population: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Background and objectives: There is insufficient epidemiological knowledge of hypouricemia. In this study, we aimed to describe the distribution and characteristics of Japanese subjects with hypouricemia. Materials and Methods: Data from subjects who underwent routine health checkups from January 2001 to December 2015 were analyzed in this cross-sectional study. A total of 246,923 individuals, which included 111,117 men and 135,806 women, met the study criteria. The participants were divided into quartiles according to their serum uric acid (SUA) levels. We subdivided the subjects with hypouricemia, which was defined as SUA level ≤ 2.0 mg/dL, into two groups and compared their characteristics, including their cardiovascular risks. Results: The hypouricemia rates were 0.46% overall, 0.21% for the men and 0.66% for the women (P < 0.001). The number of the subjects with hypouricemia showed two distributions at SUA levels of 0.4⁻1.1 mg/dL (lower hypouricemia group), which included a peak at 0.7⁻0.8 mg/dL, and at SUA levels of 1.4⁻2.0 mg/dL (higher hypouricemia group). The men in the higher hypouricemia group had lower body mass indexes (BMI) and triglyceride (TG) levels and had higher fasting blood glucose levels than those in the lower hypouricemia group. The women in the higher hypouricemia group were younger; had lower BMI, total protein, TG, total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels; and had higher estimated glomerular filtration rates levels compared to those in the lower hypouricemia group. Conclusions: The characteristics of the individuals in the lower and higher hypouricemia groups differed significantly, indicating different pathophysiologies within each group.

Association of Serum Triglycerides With Arterial Stiffness in Subjects With Low Levels of Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol.

BACKGROUND: The independent role of serum triglyceride (TG) levels as a cardiovascular risk factor is still not elucidated. We aimed to investigate if the effect of TG on arterial stiffness is influenced by the serum level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Methods and Results: We studied 11,640 subjects who underwent health checkups. They were stratified into 4 groups according to LDL-C level (≤79, 80-119, 120-159, and ≥160 mg/dL). Arterial stiffness was evaluated by brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV). In each group, univariate and multivariete logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between high TG (≥150 mg/dL) and high baPWV (>1,400 cm/s). In the univarite analysis, high TG was significantly associated with high baPWV in LDL-C <79 mg/dL (OR, 3.611, 95% CI, 2.475-5.337; P<0.0001) and 80-119 mg/dL (OR, 1.881; 95% CI, 1.602-2.210; P<0.0001), but not in LDL-C 120-159 mg/dL and ≥160 mg/dL. In the multivariate analysis, high TG was significantly associated with high baPWV in LDL-C ≤79 mg/dL (OR, 2.558; 95% CI, 1.348-4.914; P=0.0040) and LDL-C 80-119 mg/dL (OR, 1.677; 95% CI, 1.315-2.140; P<0.0001), but not in LDL-C 120-159 mg/dL and ≥160 mg/dL. CONCLUSIONS: High TG and increased arterial stiffness showed an independent relationship in a Japanese general population with LDL-C ≤119 mg/dL. TG-lowering therapy might be an additional therapeutic consideration in these subjects.

Uric Acid Level and New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in the Japanese General Population　- Longitudinal Study.

BACKGROUND: The independent role of uric acid (UA) as a risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF) has not been fully elucidated. Methods and Results: We studied 111,566 subjects (53,416 men; 58,150 women) who underwent annual health check-ups. We divided them by sex into tertile of baseline UA. To investigate the predictive power of UA for new-onset AF, we performed Cox proportional hazard analysis including UA tertiles, body mass index, creatinine, smoking and drinking status, and presence of hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia. During 4.1 years, 467 men (0.87%) and 180 women (0.31%) had AF (P<0.001). Cut-off points for tertiles of UA were as follows: women, ≤3.9, 4.0-4.8, and ≥4.9 mg/dL; men, ≤5.4, 5.5-6.4, and ≥6.5 mg/dL. Hazard ratio (HR) for third to first tertile was 1.74 (95% CI: 1.15-2.70; P=0.008), whereas there were no differences between tertiles in men. Rate of new-onset AF was significantly higher in the group with initially increased UA (ΔUA ≥0.3 mg/dL) than that with unchanged UA (ΔUA, -0.2 or +0.2 mg/dL) in the third tertile of baseline UA in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: Higher baseline UA was significantly associated with higher AF incidence in women. Initial increase in UA was significantly associated with AF incidence when baseline UA was ≥6.5 mg/dL in men, and ≥4.9 mg/dL in women.

High Pulse Wave Velocity Has a Strong Impact on Early Carotid Atherosclerosis in a Japanese General Male Population.

BACKGROUND: Although there have been several reports on the risk factors associated with intima-media thickness (IMT), many questions remain. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between IMT and cardiovascular risk factors in a Japanese general population.Methods and Results:The study group consisted of 1,583 male subjects undergoing routine health checkups. IMT of the common carotid artery was measured by high-resolution ultrasonography. Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was measured using an automated device. Univariate analysis demonstrated that carotid IMT significantly associated with age, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), baPWV, fasting glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides (TG), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). Multiple logistic regression analysis for carotid atherosclerosis (carotid IMT ≥1.0 mm) was performed using obesity (BMI ≥25.0 kg/m2), high BP (SBP ≥130 mmHg or DBP ≥85 mmHg), dyslipidemia (LDL-C ≥140 mg/dL, TG ≥150 mg/dL, or HDL-C <40 mg/dL), impaired fasting glucose (IFG) (fasting glucose ≥110 g/dL), and high baPWV (≥1,400 cm/s). Carotid atherosclerosis was significantly associated with only high baPWV (OR: 2.22, 95% CI: 1.24-4.17, P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: High baPWV was a stronger predictor of early carotid atherosclerosis than high BP, dyslipidemia, or IFG in a Japanese general male population.

Uric Acid Level and Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation in a Japanese General Population of 285,882.

BACKGROUND: The association between serum uric acid (UA) levels and atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population in Japan is not well known.Methods and Results:In total, 285,882 consecutive subjects (men, 130,897; women, 154,985; age, 58±15 years) not receiving treatment for hyperuricemia who underwent health checkups were enrolled. Subjects were stratified into deciles according to age, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, systolic blood pressure, and UA level. AF prevalence was calculated for each decile. The odds ratio that defined the decile with the lowest AF prevalence as reference was calculated in each sex. In men, the mean UA was 6.0±1.4 mg/dl; AF prevalence was 1.8% and was lowest in the decile with UA 4.4-4.9 mg/dl. Deciles with both high and low UA (5.4-5.6 mg/dl to >7.8 mg/dl and <4.3 mg/dl) were associated with significantly higher AF prevalence. In women, the mean UA was 4.5±1.1 mg/dl; AF prevalence was 0.7% and was lowest in the decile with UA 3.6-3.8 mg/dl. Deciles with highest UA (5.0-5.2 mg/dl to >5.9 mg/dl) were associated with significantly higher AF prevalence. The analysis adjusted for other clinical covariates demonstrated an independent association between UA and AF in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: In a representative Japanese general population, UA level was significantly associated with AF, independently of other cardiovascular risk factors. (Circ J 2016; 80: 2453-2459).

Association between anthropometric indices and 5-year hypertension incidence in the general Japanese population.

No existing reports demonstrate the association between anthropometric indices (body mass index, waist circumference, body roundness index, a body shape index) and hypertension according to sex and age in the general Japanese population. This retrospective analysis involved individuals aged 30-69 years who underwent annual medical checkups at Kagoshima Koseiren Hospital in 2005-2019, and who did not meet hypertension criteria at baseline. The outcome was hypertension incidence after 5 years, and its association with baseline anthropometric indices was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression analysis by sex and age. In 41,902 participants (age 52.3 ± 10.2 years, 47.7% men), 7622 individuals (18.2%) developed hypertension after 5 years. Body mass index, waist circumference, and body roundness index were significantly associated with the development of hypertension in both men and women across all age categories from 30 s to 60 s. In the population with a body mass index <25 kg/m2, waist circumference and body roundness index were significantly associated with hypertension after 5 years. A body shape index was significantly associated with the development of hypertension in men in their 40 s and 50 s but not in women of any age group. The area under the curve values were lower for a body shape index than for body mass index, waist circumference, and body roundness index in both men and women of all age groups. A body shape index was not a stronger indicator for 5-year hypertension incidence than body mass index, waist circumference, or body roundness index in both men and women across age groups from their 30s-60 s. The results of this study will help to more efficiently identify populations at high risk of developing hypertension and provide preventive interventions. A total of 41,902 participants from health checkup programs were stratified by gender and age to investigate the association between baseline anthropometric indices and hypertension incidence over a 5-year period. BMI, WC, and BRI were almost equally effective and showed a better association with risk of developing hypertension in women and young adults compared to men and old adults. Conversely, ABSI showed no greater association than BMI or WC in any age group in both men and women. ABSI, a body shape index; AUC, area under the curve from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis; BMI, body mass index; BRI, body roundness index; WC, waist circumference.

Triglyceride-glucose index predicts future chronic kidney disease development in all populations, including normotensive and isolated diastolic hypertension.

Hypertension and insulin resistance are established risk factors for chronic kidney disease. However, the association between chronic kidney disease and insulin resistance in detailed hypertension pattern groups such as isolated diastolic hypertension remains unclear. Triglyceride-glucose index has been noted as an indicator of insulin resistance. This study investigated the association between the triglyceride-glucose index and chronic kidney disease in four blood pressure groups: isolated diastolic hypertension, isolated systolic hypertension, systolic diastolic hypertension, and normotension. Using a database of 41,811 middle-aged men who had two or more annual health checkups from 2007 to 2019, those with chronic kidney disease at the first visit, antihypertensive/diabetes/dyslipidemia medication users, and incomplete data were excluded. Four groups were categorized using the 140/90 mmHg threshold. A COX proportional hazards model was used to assess the triglyceride-glucose index with incident chronic kidney disease. Participants were divided: isolated diastolic hypertension: 2207 (6.72%), isolated systolic hypertension: 2316 (7.06%), systolic-diastolic hypertension: 3299 (10.05%), normal: 24,996 (76.17%). The follow-up period was 6.78 years. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs per unit increase in triglyceride-glucose index: isolated diastolic hypertension (HR = 1.31, 95% CI (1.06-1.62)), isolated systolic hypertension (HR = 1.36, 95% CI (1.12-1.64)), systolic-diastolic hypertension (HR = 1.40, 95% CI (1.19-1.64)), normal (HR = 1.18, 95% CI (1.09-1.28)). Triglyceride-glucose index is relevant for predicting chronic kidney disease development in all subtypes of hypertension. The results may lead to early prediction and prevention of the development of chronic kidney disease.

Sex-specific associations between serum uric acid levels and risk of hypertension for different diagnostic reference values of high blood pressure.

The association between uric acid (UA) and hyperuricemia with 5-year hypertension incidence using different blood pressure (BP) diagnostic references in men and women without cardiometabolic diseases is unknown. We used the checkup data from Kagoshima Kouseiren Hospital. All participants with hypertension or on BP medication, diabetes, dyslipidemia, obesity, estimated glomerular filtration rate<60 ml/min/1.73m2, metabolic syndrome, history of gout, and UA-lowering medication were excluded. UA was categorized into sex-specific quartiles and hyperuricemia was defined as UA > 7 mg/dl in men and UA > 6 mg/dl in women. We performed multivariate logistic regression to assess the effects of UA on hypertension development. The 5-year hypertension incidence was defined as subsets of BP ≥ 140/90 mmHg in cohort 1 and BP ≥ 130/80 mmHg in cohort 2. The study enrolled 21,443 participants (39.8%, men) in cohort 1 and 15,245 participants (36.5%, men) in cohort 2. The incidence of hypertension in cohorts 1 and 2 over 5 years was 16.3% and 29.7% in men and 10.9% and 21.4% in women, respectively. When comparing the fourth to the first UA quartile, there was an association with hypertension in men in cohort 1, with odds ratio (OR): 1.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.63, p < 0.01) and cohort 2, OR: 1.31 (95%CI, 1.09-1.57, p < 0.01), respectively, but not in women. Additionally, an association between hyperuricemia and hypertension was observed in men only in cohort 1, with OR: 1.23 (95%CI, 1.07-1.42, p = 0.02), and in women in cohort 2, OR: 1.57 (95%CI, 1.14-2.16, p < 0.01). The effect of UA on the development of hypertension is influenced by sex and incidence differs with the BP reference used. Uric acid effect on the development of hypertension is affected by sex and incidence differs with the BP reference used.

Association between weight gain following smoking cessation and development of hypertension in the future.

Although quitting smoking lowers the risk of developing chronic conditions, it usually leads to weight gain. Literature on the association between weight gain after quitting smoking and the future development of hypertension is scarce. Among 234 596 individuals who visited our health center, 856 who had quit smoking for whom data were available at least 6 years after smoking cessation were included. We evaluated changes in blood pressure and antihypertensive drug prescription rate at 1 and 6 years after smoking cessation. We also compared weight and blood pressure between the smoking cessation and continued smoking groups after 6 years. Multiple regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of changes in systolic and diastolic blood pressures using covariates affecting blood pressure. Since a median weight gain of 1.8 kg was observed at 1 year after smoking cessation, we divided the participants into high and low-weight gain groups. No significant intergroup difference in the antihypertensive drug prescription rate was observed after 6 years. The high weight gain group showed significant increases in systolic and diastolic blood pressures after 6 years. Multiple regression analyses revealed that systolic blood pressure was affected by age and high weight gain, while diastolic blood pressure was affected by high weight gain. Our findings suggest that weight gain following smoking cessation leads to blood pressure elevation: the smoking cessation group gained more weight and had higher blood pressure than the continued smoking group. Therefore, weight loss guidance may be useful for individuals who want to quit smoking. Participants in the high weight gain group showed significant increases in systolic and diastolic blood pressures at 6 years after smoking cessation that were significantly different from those observed in participants in the low weight gain group and the continued smoking group.

Simple risk scoring using sinus rhythm electrocardiograms predicts the incidence of atrial fibrillation in the general population.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an arrhythmic disease. Prediction of AF development in healthy individuals is important before serious complications occur. We aimed to develop a risk prediction score for future AF using participants' data, including electrocardiogram (ECG) measurements and information such as age and sex. We included 88,907 Japanese participants, aged 30-69 years, who were randomly assigned to derivation and validation cohorts in a ratio of 1:1. We performed multivariate logistic regression analysis and obtained the standardised beta coefficient of relevant factors and assigned scores to them. We created a score based on prognostic factors for AF to predict its occurrence after five years and applied it to validation cohorts to assess its reproducibility. The risk score ranged from 0 to 17, consisting of age, sex, PR prolongation, QT corrected for heart rate prolongation, left ventricular hypertrophy, premature atrial contraction, and left axis deviation. The area under the curve was 0.75 for the derivation cohort and 0.73 for the validation cohort. The incidence of new-onset AF reached over 2% at 10 points of the risk score in both cohorts. Thus, in this study, we showed the possibility of predicting new-onset AF using ECG findings and simple information.

Cutoff Values of Brachial-Ankle Pulse Wave Velocity for Atherosclerotic Risks by Age and Sex in the Japanese General Population.

AIM: In this study, we aim to analyze the correlation between brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) and Suita score or Framingham risk score and obtain the cutoff value of baPWV by sex and age for cardiovascular risk, as assessed by these scores in the large Japanese annual health checkup data. METHODS: In total, 25,602 participants (14,539 men and 11,063 women), who had their annual health checkups, were included in this study. Cutoff values of baPWV for the moderate- and high-risk groups stratified by sex and age were obtained using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: As per our findings, the Suita score demonstrated better correlations with baPWV than the Framingham risk score in both sexes (men, Suita score R2=0.41 and Framingham risk score R2=0.37; women, Suita score R2=0.54 and Framingham risk score R2=0.33). The ROC curve analysis demonstrated the cutoff values of baPWV for moderate- and high-risk groups estimated using the Suita score, and they are as follows: in men, the baPWV cutoff values were 1,350 cm/s in the 40s, 1,430 cm/s in the 50s, 1,520 cm/s in the 60s, and 1,880 cm/s in the 70s. In women, the baPWV cutoff values were 1,350 cm/s in the 40s, 1,430 cm/s in the 50s, 1,570 cm/s in the 60s, and 1,800 cm/s in the 70s. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated that baPWV significantly correlated with the Suita score or Framingham risk score in both men and women, with the former presenting a stronger correlation than the latter. We propose the cutoff values of baPWV for moderate- and high-risk groups estimated using the Suita score.

J-shaped Association between Serum Uric Acid Levels and the Prevalence of a Reduced Kidney Function: A Cross-Sectional Study Using Japanese Health Examination Data.

Objective While an association between a reduced kidney function and hyperuricemia has been reported, its association with hypouricemia is not well understood. The present study therefore investigated this association. Methods Using a large Japanese health examination dataset, we performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis to assess the association between serum uric acid (SUA) levels and a reduced kidney function. The covariates included the age, body mass index, alcohol intake, and the presence of hypertension, dyslipidemia, or diabetes. Patients This study included 227,672 patients (104,854 men; 46.1%), and the analyses were performed separately for men and women. The patients were classified into 5 groups: hypouricemia (SUA ≤2.0 mg/dL) (1st) and four other (2nd-5th) groups with SUA levels of ≤2.0, 2.1-5.1, 5.2-5.9, 6.0-6.8, ≥6.9 mg/dL in men and ≤2.0, 2.1-3.7, 3.8-4.4, 4.5-5.1, ≥5.2 mg/dL in women, respectively. Results The characteristics of the study population were as follows: men, age 55.9±14.9 years old, SUA 5.9±1.3 mg/dL, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 80.0±17.2 mL/min/1.73 m2, and a reduced kidney function (eGFR<60.0 mL/min/1.73 m2) 9.4%; women, age 57.3±15.0 years old, SUA 4.5±1.1 mg/dL, eGFR 81.2±18.0 mL/min/1.73 m2, and a reduced kidney function 9.4%. Compared with the 2nd group, the other 4 groups groups had a significantly higher prevalence of a reduced kidney function [odds ratio (OR), 2.58; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.64-4.06 in men; OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.16-2.39 in women]. Conclusion The prevalence of a reduced kidney function was high in both men and women in the hypouricemia and high-SUA groups. SUA levels and the prevalence of a reduced kidney function showed a J-shaped association.

Clinical significance of atherosclerotic risk factors differs in early and advanced stages of plaque formation: A longitudinal study in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Carotid plaque is a well-known prognostic factor for cardiovascular diseases. It is unclear which risk factors are associated with the transformation of carotid plaque over time. In this longitudinal study, we examined the risk factors related to carotid plaque progression. METHODS: We enrolled 738 men without medication (mean age: 55 ± 10 years) who underwent the first and second health examinations. We measured carotid plaque thickness (PT) at three points of the right and left carotid artery. Plaque score (PS) was calculated by summing all the PTs. We divided the PS into three groups: None-group (PS <1.1), Early-group (1.1 ≤ PS <5.1), and Advanced-group (PS ≥5.1). We analyzed the relationship between PS progression and parameters such as age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting blood sugar, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and smoking and exercise habits. RESULTS: In multivariable logistic regression analysis, age and SBP were independent factors for PS progression from none to early stages (age, OR 1.07, p = 0.002; SBP, 10 mmHg, OR 1.27, p = 0.041). Age, follow-up period and LDL-C were independently associated factors for PS progression from early to advanced stages (age, OR 1.08,p < 0.001; follow-up period OR1.19, p = 0.041; LDL-C, 10 mg/dL, OR 1.10, p = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: SBP was independently associated with the progress of early atherosclerosis, while LDL-C was independently associated with the progression of advanced atherosclerosis in the general population. Further studies are needed to assess whether early control of SBP and LDL-C levels can reduce the occurrence of future cardiovascular events.

Development of a risk prediction score and equation for chronic kidney disease: a retrospective cohort study.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a risk factor for end-stage renal disease and contributes to increased risk of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk prediction score and equation for future CKD using health checkup data. This study included 58,423 Japanese participants aged 30-69 years, who were randomly assigned to derivation and validation cohorts at a ratio of 2:1. The predictors were anthropometric indices, life style, and blood sampling data. In derivation cohort, we performed multivariable logistic regression analysis and obtained the standardized beta coefficient of each factor that was significantly associated with new-onset CKD and assigned scores to each factor. We created a score and an equation to predict CKD after 5 years and applied them to validation cohort to assess their reproducibility. The risk score ranged 0-16, consisting of age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, hyperuricemia, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78 for the derivation cohort and 0.79 for the validation cohort. The CKD incidence gradually and constantly increased as the score increased from ≤ 6 to ≥ 14. The equation consisted of the seven indices described above, with AUC of 0.88 for the derivation cohort and 0.89 for the validation cohort. We developed a risk score and equation to predict CKD incidence after 5 years in Japanese population under 70 years of age. These models had reasonably high predictivity, and their reproducibility was confirmed through internal validation.

Development of predictive equation and score for 5-year metabolic syndrome incidence in Japanese adults.

BACKGROUND: Predicting metabolic syndrome (MetS) is important for identifying high-risk cardiovascular disease individuals and providing preventive interventions. We aimed to develop and validate an equation and a simple MetS score according to the Japanese MetS criteria. METHODS: In total, 54,198 participants (age, 54.5±10.1 years; men, 46.0%), with baseline and 5-year follow-up data were randomly assigned to 'Derivation' and 'Validation' cohorts (ratio: 2:1). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed in derivation cohort and scores were assigned to factors corresponding to ß-coefficients. We evaluated predictive ability of the scores using area under the curve (AUC), then applied them to validation cohort to assess reproducibility. RESULTS: The primary model ranged 0-27 points had an AUC of 0.81 (sensitivity: 0.81, specificity: 0.81, cut-off score: 14), and consisted of age, sex, blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), serum lipids, glucose measurements, tobacco smoking, and alcohol consumption. The simplified model (excluding blood tests) ranged 0-17 points with an AUC of 0.78 (sensitivity: 0.83, specificity: 0.77, cut-off score: 15) and included: age, sex, systolic BP, diastolic BP, BMI, tobacco smoking, and alcohol consumption. We classified individuals with a score <15 and ≥15 points as low- and high-risk MetS, respectively. Furthermore, the equation model generated an AUC of 0.85 (sensitivity: 0.86, specificity: 0.55). Analysis of the validation and derivation cohorts yielded similar results. CONCLUSION: We developed a primary score, an equation model, and a simple score. The simple score is convenient, well-validated with acceptable discrimination, and could be used for early detection of MetS in high-risk individuals.

Development of a risk prediction score for hypertension incidence using Japanese health checkup data.

Hypertension is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We developed a simple scoring method for predicting future hypertension using health checkup data. A total of 41,902 participants aged 30-69 years without baseline hypertension who underwent annual health checkups (mean age, 52.3 ± 10.2 years; male, 47.7%) were included. They were randomly assigned to derivation (n = 27,935) and validation cohorts (n = 13,967) at a ratio of 2:1. In the derivation cohort, we performed multivariable logistic regression analysis and assigned scores to each factor significantly associated with 5-year hypertension. We evaluated the predictive ability of the scores using area under the curve (AUC) analysis and then applied them to the validation cohort to assess their validity. The score including items requiring blood sampling ranged from 0 to 14 and included seven indicators (age, body mass index, blood pressure, current smoking, family history of hypertension, diabetes, and hyperuricemia). The score not including items requiring blood sampling ranged from 0 to 12 and included five indicators (the above indicators, except diabetes and hyperuricemia). The score not including items requiring blood sampling was better; blood sampling did not improve diagnostic ability. The AUC of the score not including items requiring blood sampling was 0.76, with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.82 and 0.60, respectively, for scores ≥6 points. The incidence of hypertension gradually and constantly increased (from 0.9 to 49.6%) as the score increased from 0 to ≥10. Analysis in the validation cohort yielded similar results. We developed a simple and useful clinical prediction model to predict the 5-year incidence of hypertension among a general Japanese population. The model had reasonably high predictive ability and reproducibility.