State transitions across the Strep A disease spectrum: scoping review and evidence gaps.

The spectrum of diseases caused by Streptococcus pyogenes (Strep A) ranges from superficial to serious life-threatening invasive infections. We conducted a scoping review of published articles between 1980 and 2021 to synthesize evidence of state transitions across the Strep A disease spectrum. We identified 175 articles reporting 262 distinct observations of Strep A disease state transitions. Among the included articles, the transition from an invasive or toxin-mediated disease state to another disease state (i.e., to recurrent ARF, RHD or death) was described 115 times (43.9% of all included transition pairs) while the transition to and from locally invasive category was the lowest (n = 7; 0.02%). Transitions from well to any other state was most frequently reported (49%) whereas a relatively higher number of studies (n = 71) reported transition from invasive disease to death. Transitions from any disease state to locally invasive, Strep A pharyngitis to invasive disease, and chronic kidney disease to death were lacking. Transitions related to severe invasive diseases were more frequently reported than superficial ones. Most evidence originated from high-income countries and there is a critical need for new studies in low- and middle-income countries to infer the state transitions across the Strep A disease spectrum in these high-burden settings.

WHO-led consensus statement on vaccine delivery costing: process, methods, and findings.

BACKGROUND: Differences in definitions and methodological approaches have hindered comparison and synthesis of economic evaluation results across multiple health domains, including immunization. At the request of the World Health Organization's (WHO) Immunization and Vaccines-related Implementation Research Advisory Committee (IVIR-AC), WHO convened an ad hoc Vaccine Delivery Costing Working Group, comprising experts from eight organizations working in immunization costing, to address a lack of standardization and gaps in definitions and methodological guidance. The aim of the Working Group was to develop a consensus statement harmonizing terminology and principles and to formulate recommendations for vaccine delivery costing for decision making. This paper discusses the process, findings of the review, and recommendations in the Consensus Statement. METHODS: The Working Group conducted several interviews, teleconferences, and one in-person meeting to identify groups working in vaccine delivery costing as well as existing guidance documents and costing tools, focusing on those for low- and middle-income country settings. They then reviewed the costing aims, perspectives, terms, methods, and principles in these documents. Consensus statement principles were drafted to align with the Global Health Cost Consortium costing guide as an agreed normative reference, and consensus definitions were drafted to reflect the predominant view across the documents reviewed. RESULTS: The Working Group identified four major workstreams on vaccine delivery costing as well as nine guidance documents and eleven costing tools for immunization costing. They found that some terms and principles were commonly defined while others were specific to individual workstreams. Based on these findings and extensive consultation, recommendations to harmonize differences in terminology and principles were made. CONCLUSIONS: Use of standardized principles and definitions outlined in the Consensus Statement within the immunization delivery costing community of practice can facilitate interpretation of economic evidence by global, regional, and national decision makers. Improving methodological alignment and clarity in program costing of health services such as immunization is important to support evidence-based policies and optimal resource allocation. On the other hand, this review and Consensus Statement development process revealed the limitations of our ability to harmonize given that study designs will vary depending upon the policy question that is being addressed and the country context.

Geographical distribution of risk factors for invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella at the subnational boundary level in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) is a growing health-concern in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa. iNTS is associated with fatal diseases such as HIV and malaria. Despite high case fatality rates, the disease has not been given much attention. The limited number of population-based surveillance studies hampers accurate estimation of global disease burden. Given the lack of available evidence on the disease, it is critical to identify high risk areas for future surveillance and to improve our understanding of iNTS endemicity. METHODS: Considering that population-based surveillance data were sparse, a composite index called the iNTS risk factor (iNRF) index was constructed based on risk factors that commonly exist across countries. Four risk factors associated with the prevalence of iNTS were considered: malaria, HIV, malnutrition, and safe water. The iNRF index was first generated based on the four risk factors which were collected within a 50 km radius of existing surveillance sites. Pearson product-moment correlation was used to test statistical associations between the iNRF index and the prevalence of iNTS observed in the surveillance sites. The index was then further estimated at the subnational boundary level across selected countries and used to identify high risk areas for iNTS. RESULTS: While the iNRF index in some countries was generally low (i.e. Rwanda) or high (i.e. Cote d'Ivoire), the risk-level of iNTS was variable not only by country but also within a country. At the provincial-level, the highest risk area was identified in Maniema, the Democratic Republic of Congo, whereas Dakar in Senegal was at the lowest risk. CONCLUSIONS: The iNRF index can be a useful tool to understand the geographically varying risk-level of iNTS. Given that conducting a population-based surveillance study requires extensive human and financial resources, identifying high risk areas for iNTS prior to a study implementation can facilitate an appropriate site-selection process in the future.

Methodological Considerations for Cost of Illness Studies of Enteric Fever.

This article presents a selection of practical issues, questions, and tradeoffs in methodological choices to consider when conducting a cost of illness (COI) study on enteric fever in low- to lower-middle-income countries. The experiences presented are based on 2 large-scale COI studies embedded within the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project II (SEAP II), in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan; and the Severe Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa (SETA) Program in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Madagascar. Issues presented include study design choices such as controlling for background patient morbidity and healthcare costs, time points for follow-up, data collection methods for sensitive income and spending information, estimating enteric fever-specific health facility cost information, and analytic approaches in combining patient and health facility costs. The article highlights the potential tradeoffs in time, budget, and precision of results to assist those commissioning, conducting, and interpreting enteric fever COI studies.

Review on the Recent Advances on Typhoid Vaccine Development and Challenges Ahead.

Control of Salmonella enterica serovar typhi (S. typhi), the agent of typhoid fever, continues to be a challenge in many low- and middle-income countries. The major transmission route of S. typhi is fecal-oral, through contaminated food and water; thus, the ultimate measures for typhoid fever prevention and control include the provision of safe water, improved sanitation, and hygiene. Considering the increasing evidence of the global burden of typhoid, particularly among young children, and the long-term horizon for sustained, effective water and sanitation improvements in low-income settings, a growing consensus is to emphasize preventive vaccination. This review provides an overview of the licensed typhoid vaccines and vaccine candidates under development, and the challenges ahead for introduction.

Decision Making and Implementation of the First Public Sector Introduction of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine-Navi Mumbai, India, 2018.

BACKGROUND: Typhoid fever prevention and control efforts are critical in an era of rising antimicrobial resistance among typhoid pathogens. India remains one of the highest typhoid disease burden countries, although a highly efficacious typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV), prequalified by the World Health Organization in 2017, has been available since 2013. In 2018, the Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation (NMMC) introduced TCV into its immunization program, targeting children aged 9 months to 14 years in 11 of 22 areas (Phase 1 campaign). We describe the decision making, implementation, and delivery costing to inform TCV use in other settings. METHODS: We collected information on the decision making and campaign implementation in addition to administrative coverage from NMMC and partners. We then used a microcosting approach from the local government (NMMC) perspective, using a new Microsoft Excel-based tool to estimate the financial and economic vaccination campaign costs. RESULTS: The planning and implementation of the campaign were led by NMMC with support from multiple partners. A fixed-post campaign was conducted during weekends and public holidays in July-August 2018 which achieved an administrative vaccination coverage of 71% (ranging from 46% in high-income to 92% in low-income areas). Not including vaccine and vaccination supplies, the average financial cost and economic cost per dose of TCV delivery were $0.45 and $1.42, respectively. CONCLUSION: The first public sector TCV campaign was successfully implemented by NMMC, with high administrative coverage in slums and low-income areas. Delivery cost estimates provide important inputs to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and affordability of TCV vaccination through public sector preventive campaigns.

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fever Outbreaks: A Worldwide Review, 1990-2018.

BACKGROUND: Analyses of the global spatial and temporal distribution of enteric fever outbreaks worldwide are important factors to consider in estimating the disease burden of enteric fever disease burden. METHODS: We conducted a global literature review of enteric fever outbreak data by systematically using multiple databases from 1 January 1990 to 31 December 2018 and classified them by time, place, diagnostic methods, and drug susceptibility, to illustrate outbreak characteristics including spatial and temporal patterns. RESULTS: There were 180 940 cases in 303 identified outbreaks caused by infection with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) and Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi A or B (S. Paratyphi). The size of outbreak ranged from 1 to 42 564. Fifty-one percent of outbreaks occurred in Asia, 15% in Africa, 14% in Oceania, and the rest in other regions. Forty-six percent of outbreaks specified confirmation by blood culture, and 82 outbreaks reported drug susceptibility, of which 54% had multidrug-resistant pathogens. Paratyphoid outbreaks were less common compared to typhoid (22 vs 281) and more prevalent in Asia than Africa. Risk factors were multifactorial, with contaminated water being the main factor. CONCLUSIONS: Enteric fever outbreak burden remains high in endemic low- and middle-income countries and, despite its limitations, outbreak data provide valuable contemporary evidence in prioritizing resources, public health policies, and actions. This review highlights geographical locations where urgent attention is needed for enteric fever control and calls for global action to prevent and contain outbreaks.

A Multicenter Cost-of-Illness and Long-term Socioeconomic Follow-up Study in the Severe Typhoid Fever in Africa Program: Study Protocol.

BACKGROUND: There are limited data on typhoid fever cost of illness (COI) and economic impact from Africa. Health economic data are essential for measuring the cost-effectiveness of vaccination or other disease control interventions. Here, we describe the protocol and methods for conducting the health economic studies under the Severe Typhoid Fever in Africa (SETA) program. METHODS: The SETA health economic studies will rely on the platform for SETA typhoid surveillance in 4 African countries-Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Madagascar. A COI and long-term socioeconomic study (LT-SES) will be its components. The COI will be assessed among blood culture-positive typhoid fever cases, blood culture-negative clinically suspected cases (clinical cases), and typhoid fever cases with pathognomonic gastrointestinal perforations (special cases). Repeated surveys using pretested questionnaires will be used to measure out-of-pocket expenses, quality of life, and the long-term socioeconomic impact. The cost of resources consumed for diagnosis and treatment will be collected at health facilities. RESULTS: Results from these studies will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at scientific conferences to make the data available to the wider health economics and public health research communities. CONCLUSIONS: The health economic data will be analyzed to estimate the average cost per case, the quality of life at different stages of illness, financial stress due to illness, and the burden on the family due to caregiving during illness. The data generated are expected to be used in economic analysis and policy making on typhoid control interventions in sub-Saharan Africa.

The Monitoring and Evaluation of a Multicountry Surveillance Study, the Severe Typhoid Fever in Africa Program.

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on the best practices for monitoring multicountry epidemiological studies. Here, we describe the monitoring and evaluation procedures created for the multicountry Severe Typhoid Fever in Africa (SETA) study. METHODS: Elements from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) recommendations on monitoring clinical trials and data quality, respectively were applied in the development of the SETA monitoring plan. The SETA core activities as well as the key data and activities required for the delivery of SETA outcomes were identified. With this information, a list of key monitorable indicators was developed using on-site and centralized monitoring methods, and a dedicated monitoring team was formed. The core activities were monitored on-site in each country at least twice per year and the SETA databases were monitored centrally as a collaborative effort between the International Vaccine Institute and study sites. Monthly reports were generated for key indicators and used to guide risk-based monitoring specific for each country. RESULTS: Preliminary results show that monitoring activities have increased compliance with protocol and standard operating procedures. A reduction in blood culture contamination following monitoring field visits in two of the SETA countries are preliminary results of the impact of monitoring activities. CONCLUSIONS: Current monitoring recommendations applicable to clinical trials and routine surveillance systems can be adapted for monitoring epidemiological studies. Continued monitoring efforts ensure that the procedures are harmonized across sites. Flexibility, ongoing feedback, and team participation yield sustainable solutions.

The Severe Typhoid Fever in Africa Program: Study Design and Methodology to Assess Disease Severity, Host Immunity, and Carriage Associated With Invasive Salmonellosis.

BACKGROUND: Invasive salmonellosis is a common community-acquired bacteremia in persons residing in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is a paucity of data on severe typhoid fever and its associated acute and chronic host immune response and carriage. The Severe Typhoid Fever in Africa (SETA) program, a multicountry surveillance study, aimed to address these research gaps and contribute to the control and prevention of invasive salmonellosis. METHODS: A prospective healthcare facility-based surveillance with active screening of enteric fever and clinically suspected severe typhoid fever with complications was performed using a standardized protocol across the study sites in Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Nigeria. Defined inclusion criteria were used for screening of eligible patients for enrollment into the study. Enrolled patients with confirmed invasive salmonellosis by blood culture or patients with clinically suspected severe typhoid fever with perforation were eligible for clinical follow-up. Asymptomatic neighborhood controls and immediate household contacts of each case were enrolled as a comparison group to assess the level of Salmonella-specific antibodies and shedding patterns. Healthcare utilization surveys were performed to permit adjustment of incidence estimations. Postmortem questionnaires were conducted in medically underserved areas to assess death attributed to invasive Salmonella infections in selected sites. RESULTS: Research data generated through SETA aimed to address scientific knowledge gaps concerning the severe typhoid fever and mortality, long-term host immune responses, and bacterial shedding and carriage associated with natural infection by invasive salmonellae. CONCLUSIONS: SETA supports public health policy on typhoid immunization strategy in Africa.

Hepatitis E infection in Odisha, India: A descriptive analysis.

Up to 25% of hepatitis E virus (HEV)-infected pregnant women in their third trimester die. Despite HEV being an important cause of viral hepatitis, no robust surveillance exists in India. We reviewed jaundice outbreaks records and hospital records from jaundiced individuals seeking treatment and linked those records to laboratory results (HEV immunoglobulin M enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) for January 2012 to September 2013 in Odisha state. A total of 14 HEV confirmed outbreaks were identified, of which 33% of 139 jaundiced cases were HEV positive. There were two deaths. An additional 495 jaundiced cases were identified through hospital records, of which 18% were HEV positive. Among HEV-positive women (n = 35), 34% were of childbearing age. While one may not be able to generalize our results, this finding suggests HE is widespread in Odisha and may represent hidden disease burden in this region. The policymakers should monitor HEV infections in similar geographical areas, especially among population of childbearing age women to initiate evidence-based control measures.

Lessons learnt from 12 oral cholera vaccine campaigns in resource-poor settings.

Improving water and sanitation is the preferred choice for cholera control in the long-term. Nevertheless, vaccination is an available tool that has been shown to be a cost-effective option for cholera prevention in endemic countries or during outbreaks. In 2011 the first low-cost oral cholera vaccine for international use was given prequalification by the World Health Organization (WHO). To increase and prioritize use of the vaccine, WHO created a global stockpile in 2013 from which countries may request oral cholera vaccine for reactive campaigns. WHO has issued specific guidelines for applying for the vaccine, which was previously in short supply (despite prequalification for a second oral vaccine in 2015). The addition of a third WHO-prequalified oral cholera vaccine in 2016 is expected to increase the global stockpile considerably and alleviate supply issues. However, prioritization and best use of the vaccine (e.g. how, when and where to use) will remain challenges. We describe 12 past oral cholera vaccine campaigns, conducted in settings with varying burdens of cholera. These case studies illustrate three key challenges faced in the use of the oral cholera vaccines: regulatory hurdles, cold chain logistics and vaccine coverage and uptake. To pave the way for the introduction of current and future oral cholera vaccines, we discuss operational challenges and make recommendations for future research with respect to each of these challenges.

Améliorer l'accès à l'eau et à l'assainissement est le meilleur moyen de lutter contre le choléra à long terme. Néanmoins, la vaccination s'avère être un outil accessible et rentable pour la prévention du choléra dans les pays où cette maladie est endémique ou pendant des épidémies. En 2011, l'Organisation mondiale de la Santé (OMS) a présélectionné le premier vaccin anticholérique oral à faible coût destiné à un usage international. Afin de favoriser et de hiérarchiser l'usage de ce vaccin, l'OMS a créé en 2013 une réserve mondiale auprès de laquelle les pays peuvent demander des vaccins anticholériques oraux et mettre en œuvre des campagnes réactives. L'OMS a publié des directives spécifiques pour demander ce vaccin, qui n'était auparavant disponible qu'en quantité limitée (malgré la présélection d'un second vaccin oral en 2015). L'ajout, en 2016, d'un troisième vaccin anticholérique oral présélectionné par l'OMS devrait permettre d'augmenter sensiblement les réserves mondiales et d'atténuer les problèmes d'approvisionnement. Il restera cependant à traiter les questions de la hiérarchisation et du meilleur usage du vaccin (par ex., comment, à quel moment et à quel endroit l'utiliser). Nous décrivons ici 12 campagnes de vaccination orale contre le choléra qui ont été menées dans des régions diversement touchées par cette maladie. Ces études de cas illustrent trois grands défis qui se posent lors de l'utilisation de vaccins anticholériques oraux: les obstacles règlementaires, la logistique de la chaîne du froid et la couverture ainsi que le taux de vaccination. Afin de préparer l'introduction de vaccins anticholériques oraux, existants et futurs, nous examinons les difficultés opérationnelles et formulons des recommandations concernant de futurs travaux de recherche sur chacune de ces difficultés.

La mejora del agua y el saneamiento es la opción preferida para el control del cólera a largo plazo. Sin embargo, la vacunación es una herramienta disponible que ha demostrado ser una alternativa rentable para la prevención del cólera en países endémicos o durante brotes. En 2011, la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) precalificó la primera vacuna anticolérica oral de bajo coste para uso internacional. Para aumentar y priorizar el uso de la vacuna, en 2013 la OMS creó una reserva global de la cual los países podían solicitar vacunas anticoléricas orales para campañas reactivas. La OMS ha publicado directrices específicas para la aplicación de la vacuna, cuyo suministro era escaso anteriormente (a pesar de la precalificación para una segunda vacuna oral en 2015). Está previsto que el hecho de añadir una tercera vacuna anticolérica oral precalificada por la OMS en 2016 aumente las reservas globales de forma considerable y reduzca los problemas de suministro. No obstante, la priorización y el buen uso de la vacuna (por ejemplo, cómo, cuándo y dónde utilizarla) seguirán siendo asuntos importantes. Se describen 12 campañas anteriores de vacunación oral contra el cólera, realizadas en entornos con distintos niveles de cólera. Estos estudios de casos ilustran los tres problemas principales que surgen al utilizar vacunas anticoléricas orales: obstáculos reglamentarios, logística de la gestión de la cadena de frío y cobertura y aceptación de la vacuna. Para allanar el terreno en la introducción de vacunas anticoléricas orales en el presente y en el futuro, se analizan las dificultades operativas y se presentan recomendaciones para futuras investigaciones con respecto a estos problemas.

Geographical distribution of typhoid risk factors in low and middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: While the global burden of typhoid fever has been often brought up for attention, the detailed surveillance information has only been available for the limited number of countries. As more efficacious vaccines will be available in the near future, it is essential to understand the geographically diverse patterns of typhoid risk levels and to prioritize the right populations for vaccination to effectively control the disease. METHODS: A composite index called the typhoid risk factor (TRF) index was created based on data with the Global Positioning System (GPS). Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and National Geographical Data Center (NGDC) satellite lights data were used for this analysis. A count model was adopted to validate the TRF index against the existing surveillance burden data. The TRF index was then re-estimated for 66 countries using the most recent data and mapped out for two geographical levels (sub-national boundary and grid-cell levels). RESULTS: The TRF index which consists of drinking water sources, toilet facility types, and population density appeared to be statistically significant to explain variation in the disease burden data. The mapping analysis showed that typhoid risk levels vary not only by country but also by sub-national region. The grid-cell level analysis highlighted that the distribution of typhoid risk factors is uneven within the sub-national boundary level. Typhoid risk levels are geographically heterogeneous. CONCLUSIONS: Given the insufficient number of surveillance studies, the TRF index serves as a useful tool by capturing multiple risk factors of the disease into a single indicator. This will help decision makers identify high risk areas for typhoid as well as other waterborne diseases. Further, the study outcome can guide researchers to find relevant places for future surveillance studies.

Revisiting typhoid fever surveillance in low and middle income countries: lessons from systematic literature review of population-based longitudinal studies.

BACKGROUND: The control of typhoid fever being an important public health concern in low and middle income countries, improving typhoid surveillance will help in planning and implementing typhoid control activities such as deployment of new generation Vi conjugate typhoid vaccines. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review of longitudinal population-based blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever studies from low and middle income countries published from 1(st) January 1990 to 31(st) December 2013. We quantitatively summarized typhoid fever incidence rates and qualitatively reviewed study methodology that could have influenced rate estimates. We used meta-analysis approach based on random effects model in summarizing the hospitalization rates. RESULTS: Twenty-two papers presented longitudinal population-based and blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever incidence estimates from 20 distinct sites in low and middle income countries. The reported incidence and hospitalizations rates were heterogeneous as well as the study methodology across the sites. We elucidated how the incidence rates were underestimated in published studies. We summarized six categories of under-estimation biases observed in these studies and presented potential solutions. CONCLUSIONS: Published longitudinal typhoid fever studies in low and middle income countries are geographically clustered and the methodology employed has a potential for underestimation. Future studies should account for these limitations.

What proportion of Salmonella Typhi cases are detected by blood culture? A systematic literature review.

Blood culture is often used in definitive diagnosis of typhoid fever while, bone marrow culture has a greater sensitivity and considered reference standard. The sensitivity of blood culture measured against bone marrow culture results in measurement bias because both tests are not fully sensitive. Here we propose a combination of the two cultures as a reference to define true positive S. Typhi cases. Based on a systematic literature review, we identified ten papers that had performed blood and bone marrow culture for S. Typhi in same subjects. We estimated the weighted mean of proportion of cases detected by culture measured against true S. Typhi positive cases using a random effects model. Of 529 true positive S. Typhi cases, 61 % (95 % CI 52-70 %) and 96 % (95 % CI 93-99 %) were detected by blood and bone marrow cultures respectively. Blood culture sensitivity was 66 % (95 % CI 56-75 %) when compared with bone marrow culture results. The use of blood culture sensitivity as a proxy measure to estimate the proportion of typhoid fever cases detected by blood culture is likely to be an underestimate. As blood culture sensitivity is used as a correction factor in estimating typhoid disease burden, epidemiologists and policy makers should account for the underestimation.

Mapping the incidence rate of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: With more than 1.2 million illnesses and 29,000 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, typhoid fever continues to be a major public health problem. Effective control of the disease would benefit from an understanding of the subnational geospatial distribution of the disease incidence. METHOD: We collated records of the incidence rate of typhoid fever confirmed by culture of blood in Africa from 2000 to 2022. We estimated the typhoid incidence rate for sub-Saharan Africa on 20 km × 20 km grids by exploring the association with geospatial covariates representing access to improved water and sanitation, health conditions of the population, and environmental conditions. RESULTS: We identified six published articles and one pre-print representing incidence rate estimates in 22 sites in 2000-2022. Estimated incidence rates showed geospatial variation at sub-national, national, and regional levels. The incidence rate was high in Western and Eastern African subregions followed by Southern and Middle African subregions. By age, the incidence rate was highest among 5-14 yo followed by 2-4 yo, > 14 yo, and 0-1 yo. When aggregated across all age classes and grids that comprise each country, predicted incidence rates ranged from 43.7 (95% confidence interval: 0.6 to 591.2) in Zimbabwe to 2,957.8 (95% CI: 20.8 to 4,245.2) in South Sudan per 100,000 person-years. Sub-national heterogeneity was evident with the coefficient of variation at the 20 km × 20 km grid-level ranging from 0.7 to 3.3 and was generally lower in high-incidence countries and widely varying in low-incidence countries. CONCLUSION: Our study provides estimates of 20 km × 20 km incidence rate of typhoid fever across sub-Saharan Africa based on data collected from 2000 through 2020. Increased understanding of the subnational geospatial variation of typhoid fever in Africa may inform more effective intervention programs by better targeting resources to heterogeneously disturbed disease risk.

Global economic burden per episode for multiple diseases caused by group A Streptococcus.

Considering the lack of existing evidence on economic burden for diseases caused by group A Streptococcus, we estimated the economic burden per episode for selected diseases. Each cost component of direct medical costs (DMCs), direct non-medical costs (DNMCs), and indirect costs (ICs) was separately extrapolated and aggregated to estimate the economic burden per episode by income group as classified by the World Bank. Adjustment factors for DMC and DNMC were generated to overcome related data insufficiencies. To address uncertainty surrounding input parameters, a probabilistic multivariate sensitivity was carried out. The average economic burden per episode ranged from $22 to $392 for pharyngitis, $25 to $2,903 for impetigo, $47 to $2,725 for cellulitis, $662 to $34,330 for invasive and toxin-mediated infections, $231 to $6,332 for acute rheumatic fever (ARF), $449 to $11,717 for rheumatic heart disease (RHD), and $949 to $39,560 for severe RHD across income groups. The economic burden for multiple Group A Streptococcus diseases underscores an urgent need to develop effective prevention strategies including vaccines.

The potential global cost-effectiveness of prospective Strep A vaccines and associated implementation efforts.

Group A Streptococcus causes a wide range of diseases from relatively mild infections including pharyngitis to more severe illnesses such as invasive diseases and rheumatic heart disease (RHD). Our aim is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical Strep A vaccine on multiple disease manifestations at the global-level. Cost-effectiveness analyses were carried out by building on the potential epidemiological impact of vaccines that align with the WHO's Preferred Product Characteristics for Strep A vaccines. Maximum vaccination costs for a cost-effective vaccination strategy were estimated at the thresholds of 1XGDP per capita and health opportunity costs. The maximum cost per fully vaccinated person for Strep A vaccination to be cost-effective was $385-$489 in high-income countries, $213-$312 in upper-income-income countries, $74-$132 in lower-middle-income countries, and $37-$69 in low-income countries for routine vaccination at birth and 5 years of age respectively. While the threshold costs are sensitive to vaccine characteristics such as efficacy, and waning immunity, a cost-effective Strep A vaccine will lower morbidity and mortality burden in all income settings.

Comparison of model predictions of typhoid conjugate vaccine public health impact and cost-effectiveness.

Models are useful to inform policy decisions on typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) deployment in endemic settings. However, methodological choices can influence model-predicted outcomes. To provide robust estimates for the potential public health impact of TCVs that account for structural model differences, we compared four dynamic and one static mathematical model of typhoid transmission and vaccine impact. All models were fitted to a common dataset of age-specific typhoid fever cases in Kolkata, India. We evaluated three TCV strategies: no vaccination, routine vaccination at 9 months of age, and routine vaccination at 9 months with a one-time catch-up campaign (ages 9 months to 15 years). The primary outcome was the predicted percent reduction in symptomatic typhoid cases over 10 years after vaccine introduction. For three models with economic analyses (Models A-C), we also compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), calculated as the incremental cost (US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. Routine vaccination was predicted to reduce symptomatic cases by 10-46 % over a 10-year time horizon under an optimistic scenario (95 % initial vaccine efficacy and 19-year mean duration of protection), and by 2-16 % under a pessimistic scenario (82 % initial efficacy and 6-year mean protection). Adding a catch-up campaign predicted a reduction in incidence of 36-90 % and 6-35 % in the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. Vaccine impact was predicted to decrease as the relative contribution of chronic carriers to transmission increased. Models A-C all predicted routine vaccination with or without a catch-up campaign to be cost-effective compared to no vaccination, with ICERs varying from $95-789 per DALY averted; two models predicted the ICER of routine vaccination alone to be greater than with the addition of catch-up campaign. Despite differences in model-predicted vaccine impact and cost-effectiveness, routine vaccination plus a catch-up campaign is likely to be impactful and cost-effective in high incidence settings such as Kolkata.