The EDGE2 protocol: Advancing the prioritisation of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered species for practical conservation action.

The conservation of evolutionary history has been linked to increased benefits for humanity and can be captured by phylogenetic diversity (PD). The Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) metric has, since 2007, been used to prioritise threatened species for practical conservation that embody large amounts of evolutionary history. While there have been important research advances since 2007, they have not been adopted in practice because of a lack of consensus in the conservation community. Here, building from an interdisciplinary workshop to update the existing EDGE approach, we present an "EDGE2" protocol that draws on a decade of research and innovation to develop an improved, consistent methodology for prioritising species conservation efforts. Key advances include methods for dealing with uncertainty and accounting for the extinction risk of closely related species. We describe EDGE2 in terms of distinct components to facilitate future revisions to its constituent parts without needing to reconsider the whole. We illustrate EDGE2 by applying it to the world's mammals. As we approach a crossroads for global biodiversity policy, this Consensus View shows how collaboration between academic and applied conservation biologists can guide effective and practical priority-setting to conserve biodiversity.

Predicting Long Pendant Edges in Model Phylogenies, with Applications to Biodiversity and Tree Inference.

In the simplest phylogenetic diversification model (the pure-birth Yule process), lineages split independently at a constant rate $\lambda$ for time $t$. The length of a randomly chosen edge (either interior or pendant) in the resulting tree has an expected value that rapidly converges to $\frac{1}{2\lambda}$ as $t$ grows and thus is essentially independent of $t$. However, the behavior of the length $L$ of the longest pendant edge reveals remarkably different behavior: $L$ converges to $t/2$ as the expected number of leaves grows. Extending this model to allow an extinction rate $\mu$ (where $\mu<\lambda$), we also establish a similar result for birth-death trees, except that $t/2$ is replaced by $t/2 \cdot (1-\mu/\lambda)$. This "complete" tree may contain subtrees that have died out before time $t$; for the "reduced tree" that just involves the leaves present at time $t$ and their direct ancestors, the longest pendant edge length $L$ again converges to $t/2$. Thus, there is likely to be at least one extant species whose associated pendant branch attaches to the tree approximately half-way back in time to the origin of the entire clade. We also briefly consider the length of the shortest edges. Our results are relevant to phylogenetic diversity indices in biodiversity conservation, and to quantifying the length of aligned sequences required to correctly infer a tree. We compare our theoretical results with simulations and with the branch lengths from a recent phylogenetic tree of all mammals. [Birth-death process; phylogenetic diversification models; phylogenetic diversity.].

Capturing diversity: Split systems and circular approximations for conservation.

We investigated the implications of employing a circular approximation of split systems in the calculation of maximum diversity subsets of a set of taxa in a conservation biology context where diversity is measured using Split System Diversity (SSD). We conducted a comparative analysis between the maximum SSD score and the maximum SSD set(s) of size k, efficiently determined using a circular approximation, and the true results obtained through brute-force search based on the original data. Through experimentation on simulated datasets and SNP data across 50 Atlantic Salmon populations, our findings demonstrate that employing a circular approximation can lead to the generation of an incorrect max-SSD set(s). We built a graph-based split system whose circular approximation led to a max-SSD set of size k=4 that was less than the true max-SSD set by 17.6%. This discrepancy increased to 25% for k=11 when we used a hypergraph-based split system. The same comparison on the Atlantic salmon dataset revealed a mere 1% difference. However, noteworthy disparities emerged in the population composition between the two sets. These findings underscore the importance of assessing the suitability of circular approximations in conservation biology systems. Caution is advised when relying solely on circular approximations to determine sets of maximum diversity, and careful consideration of the data characteristics is crucial for accurate results in conservation biology applications.

Corrigendum: Reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nature24295.

Reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending.

Halting global biodiversity loss is central to the Convention on Biological Diversity and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, but success to date has been very limited. A critical determinant of success in achieving these goals is the financing that is committed to maintaining biodiversity; however, financing decisions are hindered by considerable uncertainty over the likely impact of any conservation investment. For greater effectiveness, we need an evidence-based model that shows how conservation spending quantitatively reduces the rate of biodiversity loss. Here we demonstrate such a model, and empirically quantify how conservation investment reduced biodiversity loss in 109 countries (signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity and Sustainable Development Goals), by a median average of 29% per country between 1996 and 2008. We also show that biodiversity changes in signatory countries can be predicted with high accuracy, using a dual model that balances the effects of conservation investment against those of economic, agricultural and population growth (human development pressures). Decision-makers can use this model to forecast the improvement that any proposed biodiversity budget would achieve under various scenarios of human development pressure, and then compare these forecasts to any chosen policy target. We find that the impact of spending decreases as human development pressures grow, which implies that funding may need to increase over time. The model offers a flexible tool for balancing the Sustainable Development Goals of human development and maintaining biodiversity, by predicting the dynamic changes in conservation finance that will be needed as human development proceeds.

Formal Links between Feature Diversity and Phylogenetic Diversity.

The extent to which phylogenetic diversity (PD) captures feature diversity (FD) is a topical and controversial question in biodiversity conservation. In this short paper, we formalize this question and establish a precise mathematical condition for FD (based on discrete characters) to coincide with PD. In this way, we make explicit the two main reasons why the two diversity measures might disagree for given data; namely, the presence of certain patterns of feature evolution and loss, and using temporal branch lengths for PD in settings that may not be appropriate (e.g., due to rapid evolution of certain features over short periods of time). Our article also explores the relationship between the "Fair Proportion" index of PD and a simple index of FD (both of which correspond to Shapley values in cooperative game theory). In a second mathematical result, we show that the two indices can take identical values for any phylogenetic tree, provided the branch lengths in the tree are chosen appropriately. [Evolutionary distinctiveness; feature diversity; phylogenetic diversity; shapley value.].

Evolutionary legacies in contemporary tetrapod imperilment.

The Tree of Life will be irrevocably reshaped as anthropogenic extinctions continue to unfold. Theory suggests that lineage evolutionary dynamics, such as age since origination, historical extinction filters and speciation rates, have influenced ancient extinction patterns - but whether these factors also contribute to modern extinction risk is largely unknown. We examine evolutionary legacies in contemporary extinction risk for over 4000 genera, representing ~30,000 species, from the major tetrapod groups: amphibians, birds, turtles and crocodiles, squamate reptiles and mammals. We find consistent support for the hypothesis that extinction risk is elevated in lineages with higher recent speciation rates. We subsequently test, and find modest support for, a primary mechanism driving this pattern: that rapidly diversifying clades predominantly comprise range-restricted, and extinction-prone, species. These evolutionary patterns in current imperilment may have important consequences for how we manage the erosion of biological diversity across the Tree of Life.

Observations on spindly leg syndrome in a captive population of Andinobates geminisae.

Amphibian health problems of unknown cause limit the success of the growing number of captive breeding programs. Spindly leg syndrome (SLS) is one such disease, where affected individuals with underdeveloped limbs often require euthanization. We experimentally evaluated husbandry-related factors of SLS in a captive population of the critically endangered frog, Andinobates geminisae. SLS has been linked to tadpole nutrition, vitamin B deficiency, water filtration methods, and water quality, but few of these have been experimentally tested. We tested the effects of water filtration method and vitamin supplementation (2017) and the effects of tadpole husbandry protocol intensity (2018) on time to metamorphosis and the occurrence of SLS. We found that vitamin supplementation and reconstituted reverse osmosis filtration of tadpole rearing water significantly reduced SLS prevalence and that reduced tadpole husbandry delayed time to metamorphosis. A fortuitous accident in 2018 resulted in a decrease in the phosphate content of rearing water, which afforded us an additional opportunity to assess the influence of phosphate on calcium sequestration. We found that tadpoles that had more time to sequester calcium for ossification during development had decreased the prevalence of SLS. Taken together, our results suggest that the qualities of the water used to rear tadpoles plays an important role in the development of SLS. Specifically, filtration method, vitamin supplementation, and calcium availability of tadpole rearing water may play important roles. Focused experiments are still needed, but our findings provide important information for amphibian captive rearing programs affected by high SLS prevalence.

Ecological constraints associated with genome size across salamander lineages.

Salamanders have some of the largest, and most variable, genome sizes among the vertebrates. Larger genomes have been associated with larger cell sizes, lower metabolic rates, and longer embryonic and larval durations in many different taxonomic groups. These life-history traits are often important for dictating fitness under different environmental conditions, suggesting that a species' genome size may have the potential to constrain its ecological distribution. We test how genome size varies with the ephemerality of larval habitat across the salamanders, predicting that species with larger genomes will be constrained to more permanent habitats that permit slower development, while species with smaller genomes will be more broadly distributed across the gradient of habitat ephemerality. We found that salamanders with larger genomes are almost exclusively associated with permanent aquatic habitats. In addition, the evolutionary transition rate between permanent and ephemeral larval habitats is much higher in salamander lineages with smaller genome sizes. These patterns suggest that genome size may act as an evolutionary constraint on the ecological habitats of salamanders, restricting those species with large genomes and slower development to habitats with permanent sources of water.

The dynamics underlying avian extinction trajectories forecast a wave of extinctions.

Population decline is a process, yet estimates of current extinction rates often consider just the final step of that process by counting numbers of species lost in historical times. This neglects the increased extinction risk that affects a large proportion of species, and consequently underestimates the effective extinction rate. Here, we model observed trajectories through IUCN Red List extinction risk categories for all bird species globally over 28 years, and estimate an overall effective extinction rate of 2.17 × 10-4/species/year. This is six times higher than the rate of outright extinction since 1500, as a consequence of the large number of species whose status is deteriorating. We very conservatively estimate that global conservation efforts have reduced the effective extinction rate by 40%, but mostly through preventing critically endangered species from going extinct rather than by preventing species at low risk from moving into higher-risk categories. Our findings suggest that extinction risk in birds is accumulating much more than previously appreciated, but would be even greater without conservation efforts.

Guiding the prioritization of the most endangered and evolutionary distinct birds for new zoo conservation programs.

Zoos have played a pivotal role in the successful reinforcement and reintroduction of species threatened with extinction, but prioritization is required in the face of increasing need and limited capacity. One means of prioritizing between species of equal threat status when establishing new breeding programs is the consideration of evolutionary distinctness (ED). More distinct species have fewer close relatives such that their extinction would result in a greater overall loss to the Tree of Life. Considering global ex situ holdings of birds (a group with a complete and well-detailed evolutionary tree), we investigate the representation of at-risk and highly evolutionarily distinct species in global zoo holdings. We identified a total of 2,236 bird species indicated by the Zoological Information Management System as being held in zoological institutions worldwide. As previously reported, imperiled species (defined as those possessing endangered or critically endangered threat status) in this database are less likely to be held in zoos than non-imperiled species. However, we find that species possessing ED scores within the top 10% of all bird species are more likely to be held in zoos than other species, possibly because they possess unique characteristics that have historically made them popular exhibits. To assist with the selection of high priority ED species for future zoo conservation programs, we provide a list of imperiled species currently not held in zoos, ranked by ED. This list highlights species representing particular priorities for ex situ conservation planners, and represents a practical tool for improving the conservation value of zoological collections.

Conserving Phylogenetic Diversity Can Be a Poor Strategy for Conserving Functional Diversity.

For decades, academic biologists have advocated for making conservation decisions in light of evolutionary history. Specifically, they suggest that policy makers should prioritize conserving phylogenetically diverse assemblages. The most prominent argument is that conserving phylogenetic diversity (PD) will also conserve diversity in traits and features (functional diversity [FD]), which may be valuable for a number of reasons. The claim that PD-maximized ("maxPD") sets of taxa will also have high FD is often taken at face value and in cases where researchers have actually tested it, they have done so by measuring the phylogenetic signal in ecologically important functional traits. The rationale is that if traits closely mirror phylogeny, then saving the maxPD set of taxa will tend to maximize FD and if traits do not have phylogenetic structure, then saving the maxPD set of taxa will be no better at capturing FD than criteria that ignore PD. Here, we suggest that measuring the phylogenetic signal in traits is uninformative for evaluating the effectiveness of using PD in conservation. We evolve traits under several different models and, for the first time, directly compare the FD of a set of taxa that maximize PD to the FD of a random set of the same size. Under many common models of trait evolution and tree shapes, conserving the maxPD set of taxa will conserve more FD than conserving a random set of the same size. However, this result cannot be generalized to other classes of models. We find that under biologically plausible scenarios, using PD to select species can actually lead to less FD compared with a random set. Critically, this can occur even when there is phylogenetic signal in the traits. Predicting exactly when we expect using PD to be a good strategy for conserving FD is challenging, as it depends on complex interactions between tree shape and the assumptions of the evolutionary model. Nonetheless, if our goal is to maintain trait diversity, the fact that conserving taxa based on PD will not reliably conserve at least as much FD as choosing randomly raises serious concerns about the general utility of PD in conservation.

Evolutionary isolation and phylogenetic diversity loss under random extinction events.

The extinction of species at the present leads to the loss of 'phylogenetic diversity' (PD) from the evolutionary tree in which these species lie. Prior to extinction, the total PD present can be divided up among the species in various ways using measures of evolutionary isolation (such as 'fair proportion' and 'equal splits'). However, the loss of PD when certain combinations of species become extinct can be either larger or smaller than the cumulative loss of the isolation values associated with the extinct species. In this paper, we show that for trees generated under neutral evolutionary models, the loss of PD under a null model of random extinction at the present can be predicted from the loss of the cumulative isolation values, by applying a non-linear transformation that is independent of the tree. Moreover, the error in the prediction provably converges to zero as the size of the tree grows, with simulations showing good agreement even for moderate sized trees (n=64).

Approaching a state shift in Earth's biosphere.

Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale 'tipping point' highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.

Salmon nutrients are associated with the phylogenetic dispersion of riparian flowering-plant assemblages.

A signature of nonrandom phylogenetic community structure has been interpreted as indicating community assembly processes. Significant clustering within the phylogenetic structure of a community can be caused by habitat filtering due to low nutrient availability. Nutrient limitation in temperate Pacific coastal rainforests can be alleviated to some extent by marine nutrient subsidies introduced by migrating salmon, which leave a quantitative signature on the makeup of plant communities near spawning streams. Thus, nutrient-mediated habitat filtering could be reduced by salmon nutrients. Here, we ask how salmon abundance affects the phylogenetic structure of riparian flowering plant assemblages across 50 watersheds in the Great Bear Rainforest of British Columbia, Canada. Based on a regional pool of 60 plant species, we found that assemblages become more phylogenetically dispersed and species poor adjacent to streams with higher salmon spawning density. In contrast, increased phylogenetic clumping and species richness was seen in sites with low salmon density, with steeper slopes, further from the stream edge, and within smaller watersheds. These observations are all consistent with abiotic habitat filtering and biotic competitive exclusion acting together across local and landscape-scale gradients in nutrient availability to structure assembly of riparian flowering plants. In this case, rich salmon nutrients appear to release riparian flowering-plant assemblages from the confines of a low-nutrient habitat filter that drives phylogenetic clustering.

The evolutionary relationships and age of Homo naledi: An assessment using dated Bayesian phylogenetic methods.

Homo naledi is a recently discovered species of fossil hominin from South Africa. A considerable amount is already known about H. naledi but some important questions remain unanswered. Here we report a study that addressed two of them: "Where does H. naledi fit in the hominin evolutionary tree?" and "How old is it?" We used a large supermatrix of craniodental characters for both early and late hominin species and Bayesian phylogenetic techniques to carry out three analyses. First, we performed a dated Bayesian analysis to generate estimates of the evolutionary relationships of fossil hominins including H. naledi. Then we employed Bayes factor tests to compare the strength of support for hypotheses about the relationships of H. naledi suggested by the best-estimate trees. Lastly, we carried out a resampling analysis to assess the accuracy of the age estimate for H. naledi yielded by the dated Bayesian analysis. The analyses strongly supported the hypothesis that H. naledi forms a clade with the other Homo species and Australopithecus sediba. The analyses were more ambiguous regarding the position of H. naledi within the (Homo, Au. sediba) clade. A number of hypotheses were rejected, but several others were not. Based on the available craniodental data, Homo antecessor, Asian Homo erectus, Homo habilis, Homo floresiensis, Homo sapiens, and Au. sediba could all be the sister taxon of H. naledi. According to the dated Bayesian analysis, the most likely age for H. naledi is 912 ka. This age estimate was supported by the resampling analysis. Our findings have a number of implications. Most notably, they support the assignment of the new specimens to Homo, cast doubt on the claim that H. naledi is simply a variant of H. erectus, and suggest H. naledi is younger than has been previously proposed.

Targeting global conservation funding to limit immediate biodiversity declines.

Inadequate funding levels are a major impediment to effective global biodiversity conservation and are likely associated with recent failures to meet United Nations biodiversity targets. Some countries are more severely underfunded than others and therefore represent urgent financial priorities. However, attempts to identify these highly underfunded countries have been hampered for decades by poor and incomplete data on actual spending, coupled with uncertainty and lack of consensus over the relative size of spending gaps. Here, we assemble a global database of annual conservation spending. We then develop a statistical model that explains 86% of variation in conservation expenditures, and use this to identify countries where funding is robustly below expected levels. The 40 most severely underfunded countries contain 32% of all threatened mammalian diversity and include neighbors in some of the world's most biodiversity-rich areas (Sundaland, Wallacea, and Near Oceania). However, very modest increases in international assistance would achieve a large improvement in the relative adequacy of global conservation finance. Our results could therefore be quickly applied to limit immediate biodiversity losses at relatively little cost.

Bayesian analysis of a morphological supermatrix sheds light on controversial fossil hominin relationships.

The phylogenetic relationships of several hominin species remain controversial. Two methodological issues contribute to the uncertainty-use of partial, inconsistent datasets and reliance on phylogenetic methods that are ill-suited to testing competing hypotheses. Here, we report a study designed to overcome these issues. We first compiled a supermatrix of craniodental characters for all widely accepted hominin species. We then took advantage of recently developed Bayesian methods for building trees of serially sampled tips to test among hypotheses that have been put forward in three of the most important current debates in hominin phylogenetics--the relationship between Australopithecus sediba and Homo, the taxonomic status of the Dmanisi hominins, and the place of the so-called hobbit fossils from Flores, Indonesia, in the hominin tree. Based on our results, several published hypotheses can be statistically rejected. For example, the data do not support the claim that Dmanisi hominins and all other early Homo specimens represent a single species, nor that the hobbit fossils are the remains of small-bodied modern humans, one of whom had Down syndrome. More broadly, our study provides a new baseline dataset for future work on hominin phylogeny and illustrates the promise of Bayesian approaches for understanding hominin phylogenetic relationships.

A molecular genetic time scale demonstrates Cretaceous origins and multiple diversification rate shifts within the order Galliformes (Aves).

The phylogeny of Galliformes (landfowl) has been studied extensively; however, the associated chronologies have been criticized recently due to misplaced or misidentified fossil calibrations. As a consequence, it is unclear whether any crown-group lineages arose in the Cretaceous and survived the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg; 65.5 Ma) mass extinction. Using Bayesian phylogenetic inference on an alignment spanning 14,539 bp of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequence data, four fossil calibrations, and a combination of uncorrelated lognormally distributed relaxed-clock and strict-clock models, we inferred a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny for 225 of the 291 extant Galliform taxa. These analyses suggest that crown Galliformes diversified in the Cretaceous and that three-stem lineages survived the K-Pg mass extinction. Ideally, characterizing the tempo and mode of diversification involves a taxonomically complete phylogenetic hypothesis. We used simple constraint structures to incorporate 66 data-deficient taxa and inferred the first taxon-complete phylogenetic hypothesis for the Galliformes. Diversification analyses conducted on 10,000 timetrees sampled from the posterior distribution of candidate trees show that the evolutionary history of the Galliformes is best explained by a rate-shift model including 1-3 clade-specific increases in diversification rate. We further show that the tempo and mode of diversification in the Galliformes conforms to a three-pulse model, with three-stem lineages arising in the Cretaceous and inter and intrafamilial diversification occurring after the K-Pg mass extinction, in the Paleocene-Eocene (65.5-33.9 Ma) or in association with the Eocene-Oligocene transition (33.9 Ma).