Dynamic predictive accuracy of electrocardiographic biomarkers of sudden cardiac death within a survival framework: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND: The risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is known to be dynamic. However, the accuracy of a dynamic SCD prediction is unknown. We aimed to measure the dynamic predictive accuracy of ECG biomarkers of SCD and competing non-sudden cardiac death (non-SCD). METHODS: Atherosclerosis Risk In Community study participants with analyzable ECGs in sinus rhythm were included (n = 15,716; 55% female, 73% white, age 54.2 ± 5.8 y). ECGs of 5 follow-up visits were analyzed. Global electrical heterogeneity and traditional ECG metrics (heart rate, QRS, QTc) were measured. Adjudicated SCD was the primary outcome; non-SCD was the competing outcome. Time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC(t) AUC) analysis was performed to assess the prediction accuracy of a continuous biomarker in a period of 3,6,9 months, and 1,2,3,5,10, and 15 years using a survival analysis framework. Reclassification improvement as compared to clinical risk factors (age, sex, race, diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke) was measured. RESULTS: Over a median 24.4 y follow-up, there were 577 SCDs (incidence 1.76 (95%CI 1.63-1.91)/1000 person-years), and 829 non-SCDs [2.55 (95%CI 2.37-2.71)]. No ECG biomarkers predicted SCD within 3 months after ECG recording. Within 6 months, spatial ventricular gradient (SVG) elevation predicted SCD (AUC 0.706; 95%CI 0.526-0.886), but not a non-SCD (AUC 0.527; 95%CI 0.303-0.75). SVG elevation more accurately predicted SCD if the ECG was recorded 6 months before SCD (AUC 0.706; 95%CI 0.526-0.886) than 2 years before SCD (AUC 0.608; 95%CI 0.515-0.701). Within the first 3 months after ECG recording, only SVG azimuth improved reclassification of the risk beyond clinical risk factors: 18% of SCD events were reclassified from low or intermediate risk to a high-risk category. QRS-T angle was the strongest long-term predictor of SCD (AUC 0.710; 95%CI 0.668-0.753 for ECG recorded within 10 years before SCD). CONCLUSION: Short-term and long-term predictive accuracy of ECG biomarkers of SCD differed, reflecting differences in transient vs. persistent SCD substrates. The dynamic predictive accuracy of ECG biomarkers should be considered for competing SCD risk scores. The distinction between markers predicting short-term and long-term events may represent the difference between markers heralding SCD (triggers or transient substrates) versus markers identifying persistent substrate.

Does Sex Modify an Association of Electrophysiological Substrate with Sudden Cardiac Death? The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

BACKGROUND­: Sex is a well-recognized risk factor for sudden cardiac death (SCD). We hypothesized that sex modifies the association of electrophysiological (EP) substrate with SCD. METHODS­: Participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study with analyzable ECGs (n=14,725; age, 54.2±5.8 yrs; 55% female, 74% white) were included. EP substrate was characterized by heart rate, QRS, QTc, Cornell voltage, spatial ventricular gradient (SVG), and sum absolute QRST integral (SAI QRST) ECG metrics. Two competing outcomes were adjudicated SCD and nonSCD. Interaction of ECG metrics with sex was studied in Cox proportional hazards and Fine-Gray competing risk models. Model 1 was adjusted for prevalent cardiovascular disease (CVD) and risk factors. Time-updated model 2 was additionally adjusted for incident non-fatal CVD. Relative hazard ratio (RHR) and relative sub-hazard ratio (RSHR) with a 95% confidence interval for SCD and nonSCD risk for women relative to men was calculated. Model 1 was adjusted for prevalent CVD and risk factors. Time-updated model 2 was additionally adjusted for incident non-fatal CVD. RESULTS­: Over a median follow-up of 24.4 years, there were 530 SCDs (incidence 1.72 (1.58-1.88)/1000 person-years). Women as compared to men experienced a greater risk of SCD associated with Cornell voltage (RHR 1.18(1.06-1.32); P=0.003), SAI QRST (RHR 1.16(1.04-1.30); P=0.007), and SVG magnitude (RHR 1.24(1.05-1.45); P=0.009), independently from incident CVD. CONCLUSION­: In women, the global EP substrate is associated with up to 24% greater risk of SCD than in men, suggesting differences in underlying mechanisms and the need for sex-specific SCD risk stratification.