Development and evaluation of a prediction model for peripheral artery disease-related major adverse limb events using novel biomarker data.

OBJECTIVE: Prognostic tools for individuals with peripheral artery disease (PAD) remain limited. We developed prediction models for 3-year PAD-related major adverse limb events (MALE) using demographic, clinical, and biomarker data previously validated by our group. METHODS: We performed a prognostic study using a prospectively recruited cohort of patients with PAD (n = 569). Demographic/clinical data were recorded including sex, age, comorbidities, previous procedures, and medications. Plasma concentrations of three biomarkers (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], fatty acid binding protein 3 [FABP3], and FABP4) were measured at baseline. The cohort was followed for 3 years. MALE was the primary outcome (composite of open/endovascular vascular intervention or major amputation). We trained three machine learning models with 10-fold cross-validation using demographic, clinical, and biomarker data (random forest, decision trees, and Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost]) to predict 3-year MALE in patients. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was the primary model evaluation metric. RESULTS: Three-year MALE was observed in 162 patients (29%). XGBoost was the top-performing predictive model for 3-year MALE, achieving the following performance metrics: AUROC = 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.94); sensitivity, 88%; specificity, 84%; positive predictive value, 83%; and negative predictive value, 91% on test set data. On an independent validation cohort of patients with PAD, XGBoost attained an AUROC of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.82-0.90). The 10 most important predictors of 3-year MALE consisted of: (1) FABP3; (2) FABP4; (3) age; (4) NT-proBNP; (5) active smoking; (6) diabetes; (7) hypertension; (8) dyslipidemia; (9) coronary artery disease; and (10) sex. CONCLUSIONS: We built robust machine learning algorithms that accurately predict 3-year MALE in patients with PAD using demographic, clinical, and novel biomarker data. Our algorithms can support risk stratification of patients with PAD for additional vascular evaluation and early aggressive medical management, thereby improving outcomes. Further validation of our models for clinical implementation is warranted.

Inflammatory Protein Panel: Exploring Diagnostic Insights for Peripheral Artery Disease Diagnosis in a Cross-Sectional Study.

Cytokine-induced neutrophil chemoattractant 1 (CINC-1), a cluster of differentiation 95 (CD95), fractalkine, and T-cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain 1 (TIM-1) are circulating proteins known to be involved in inflammation. While their roles have been studied in neurological conditions and cardiovascular diseases, their potential as peripheral artery disease (PAD) biomarkers remain unexplored. We conducted a cross-sectional diagnostic study using data from 476 recruited patients (164 without PAD and 312 with PAD). Plasma levels of CINC-1, CD95, fractalkine, and TIM-1 were measured at baseline. A PAD diagnosis was established at recruitment based on clinical exams and investigations, defined as an ankle-brachial index < 0.9 or toe-brachial index < 0.67 with absent/diminished pedal pulses. Using 10-fold cross-validation, we trained a random forest algorithm, incorporating clinical characteristics and biomarkers that showed differential expression in PAD versus non-PAD patients to predict a PAD diagnosis. Among the proteins tested, CINC-1, CD95, and fractalkine were elevated in PAD vs. non-PAD patients, forming a 3-biomarker panel. Our predictive model achieved an AUROC of 0.85 for a PAD diagnosis using clinical features and this 3-biomarker panel. By combining the clinical characteristics with these biomarkers, we developed an accurate predictive model for a PAD diagnosis. This algorithm can assist in PAD screening, risk stratification, and guiding clinical decisions regarding further vascular assessment, referrals, and medical/surgical management to potentially improve patient outcomes.