RESUMO
OBJECTIVE: This national analysis aimed to calculate the diagnostic yield from gastroscopy for common symptoms, guiding improved resource utilisation. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study was conducted of diagnostic gastroscopies between 1 March 2019 and 29 February 2020 using the UK National Endoscopy Database. Mixed-effect logistic regression models were used, incorporating random (endoscopist) and fixed (symptoms, age and sex) effects on two dependent variables (endoscopic cancer; Barrett's oesophagus (BO) diagnosis). Adjusted positive predictive values (aPPVs) were calculated. RESULTS: 382 370 diagnostic gastroscopies were analysed; 30.4% were performed in patients aged <50 and 57.7% on female patients. The overall unadjusted PPV for cancer was 1.0% (males 1.7%; females 0.6%, p<0.01). Other major pathology was found in 9.1% of procedures, whereas 89.9% reported only normal findings or minor pathology (92.5% in females; 94.6% in patients <50).Highest cancer aPPVs were reached in the over 50s (1.3%), in those with dysphagia (3.0%) or weight loss plus another symptom (1.4%). Cancer aPPVs for all other symptoms were below 1%, and for those under 50, remained below 1% regardless of symptom. Overall, 73.7% of gastroscopies were carried out in patient groups where aPPV cancer was <1%.The overall unadjusted PPV for BO was 4.1% (males 6.1%; females 2.7%, p<0.01). The aPPV for BO for reflux was 5.8% and ranged from 3.2% to 4.0% for other symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer yield was highest in elderly male patients, and those over 50 with dysphagia. Three-quarters of all gastroscopies were performed on patients whose cancer risk was <1%, suggesting inefficient resource utilisation.
Assuntos
Esôfago de Barrett , Bases de Dados Factuais , Gastroscopia , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Gastroscopia/estatística & dados numéricos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Transversais , Esôfago de Barrett/diagnóstico , Idoso , Neoplasias Gástricas/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Gástricas/epidemiologia , Adulto , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Gastroenterologia/estatística & dados numéricos , Transtornos de Deglutição/diagnósticoRESUMO
Improving cancer outcomes through innovative cancer detection initiatives in primary care is an international policy priority. There are unique implementation challenges to the roll-out and scale-up of different innovations, requiring synchronisation between national policy levers and local implementation strategies. We draw on implementation science to highlight key considerations when seeking to sustainably embed cancer detection initiatives within health systems and clinical practice. Points of action include considering the implications of change on the current configuration of responsibility for detecting cancer; investing in understanding how to adapt systems to support innovations; developing strategies to address inequity when planning innovation implementation; and anticipating and making efforts to mitigate the unintended consequences of innovation. We draw on examples of contemporary cancer detection issues to illustrate how to apply these recommendations to practice.
Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Neoplasias , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Atenção Secundária à Saúde , Humanos , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Neoplasias/terapia , Atenção Primária à Saúde/organização & administração , Atenção Secundária à Saúde/organização & administração , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Ciência da Implementação , Difusão de InovaçõesRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Identifying patients presenting with nonspecific abdominal symptoms who have underlying cancer is a challenge. Common blood tests are widely used to investigate these symptoms in primary care, but their predictive value for detecting cancer in this context is unknown. We quantify the predictive value of 19 abnormal blood test results for detecting underlying cancer in patients presenting with 2 nonspecific abdominal symptoms. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to the National Cancer Registry, Hospital Episode Statistics and Index of Multiple Deprivation, we conducted a population-based cohort study of patients aged ≥30 presenting to English general practice with abdominal pain or bloating between January 2007 and October 2016. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV), sensitivity, and specificity for cancer diagnosis (overall and by cancer site) were calculated for 19 abnormal blood test results co-occurring in primary care within 3 months of abdominal pain or bloating presentations. A total of 9,427/425,549 (2.2%) patients with abdominal pain and 1,148/52,321 (2.2%) with abdominal bloating were diagnosed with cancer within 12 months post-presentation. For both symptoms, in both males and females aged ≥60, the PPV for cancer exceeded the 3% risk threshold used by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence for recommending urgent specialist cancer referral. Concurrent blood tests were performed in two thirds of all patients (64% with abdominal pain and 70% with bloating). In patients aged 30 to 59, several blood abnormalities updated a patient's cancer risk to above the 3% threshold: For example, in females aged 50 to 59 with abdominal bloating, pre-blood test cancer risk of 1.6% increased to: 10% with raised ferritin, 9% with low albumin, 8% with raised platelets, 6% with raised inflammatory markers, and 4% with anaemia. Compared to risk assessment solely based on presenting symptom, age and sex, for every 1,000 patients with abdominal bloating, assessment incorporating information from blood test results would result in 63 additional urgent suspected cancer referrals and would identify 3 extra cancer patients through this route (a 16% relative increase in cancer diagnosis yield). Study limitations include reliance on completeness of coding of symptoms in primary care records and possible variation in PPVs if extrapolated to healthcare settings with higher or lower rates of blood test use. CONCLUSIONS: In patients consulting with nonspecific abdominal symptoms, the assessment of cancer risk based on symptoms, age and sex alone can be substantially enhanced by considering additional information from common blood test results. Male and female patients aged ≥60 presenting to primary care with abdominal pain or bloating warrant consideration for urgent cancer referral or investigation. Further cancer assessment should also be considered in patients aged 30 to 59 with concurrent blood test abnormalities. This approach can detect additional patients with underlying cancer through expedited referral routes and can guide decisions on specialist referrals and investigation strategies for different cancer sites.
Assuntos
Dor Abdominal , Testes Hematológicos , Neoplasias , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/sangue , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Dor Abdominal/diagnóstico , Dor Abdominal/etiologia , Idoso , Adulto , Estudos de Coortes , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Idoso de 80 Anos ou maisRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: Offering advice and support for smoking, obesity, excess alcohol, and physical inactivity is an evidence-based component of primary care. The objective was to quantify the impact of the pandemic on the rate of advice or referral for these four risk factors. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using primary care data from 1847 practices in England and 21,191,389 patients contributing to the Oxford Clinical Informatics Digital Hub. An interrupted time series analysis was undertaken with a single change point (March 2020). Monthly trends were modelled from 1st January 2018 - 30th June 2022 using segmented linear regression. RESULTS: There was an initial step reduction in advice and referrals for smoking, obesity, excess alcohol, and physical inactivity in March 2020. By June 2022, advice on smoking (slope change -0.02 events per hundred patient years/month (EPH/month); 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.17, 0.21), obesity (0.06 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.12), alcohol (0.02 EPH/month; 95% CI -0.01, 0.05) and physical inactivity (0.05 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.09) had not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Similarly, smoking cessation referral remained lower (0.01 EPH/month; 95% CI -0.01, 0.09), excess alcohol referral returned to similar levels (0.0005 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.0002, 0.0008), while referral for obesity (0.14 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.10, 0.19) and physical inactivity (0.01 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.02) increased relative to pre-pandemic rates. CONCLUSION: Advice and support for smoking, and advice for weight, excess alcohol and physical inactivity have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Clinicians and policy makers should prioritise preventive care in COVID-19 recovery plans.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Adulto , Humanos , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Análise de Séries Temporais Interrompida , Estudos Retrospectivos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Atenção à Saúde , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Obesidade/prevenção & controle , Atenção Primária à SaúdeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Serrated polyposis syndrome is the most common polyposis syndrome that has neoplastic potential. However, the natural history, genetic basis, and risk of dysplasia and neoplasia of serrated polyposis syndrome are incompletely understood. The objective of this study is to define the epidemiology of serrated polyposis syndrome. Using this data, we aim to evaluate candidate variables for predicting the risk of dysplasia and neoplasia in sessile serrated lesions found in serrated polyposis syndrome patients. Finally, we aim to use this data to create and evaluate clinical prediction models for accuracy in predicting dysplastic sessile serrated lesions in serrated polyposis syndrome patients. METHODS: This was a regional Australian single-centre retrospective cohort study. Data was prospectively collected data from the clinical record database of a regional Australian gastroenterology practice. All patients undergoing colonoscopy at Port Macquarie Gastroenterology between January 2015 and September 2021 were screened for this study. Collected data included patient demographic, endoscopic, and histopathological findings. Clinical and endoscopic multivariate logistic regression models were created to predict dysplastic sessile serrated lesions. Model performance was examined using the area under the receiver operating curve. RESULTS: In total 8401 patients underwent a colonoscopy procedure during the study period. Serrated polyposis syndrome was diagnosed in 247, representing a prevalence of 2.94% (mean age 67.15 years, 62.75% female). Logistic regression identified; older age at serrated polyposis syndrome diagnosis, a personal history of colorectal cancer, size of the largest sessile serrated lesions removed, and total sessile serrated lesions count as predictors of dysplastic sessile serrated lesions. The clinical and endoscopic model had an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.75. CONCLUSION: Serrated polyposis syndrome is more common than previously described. The clinical and endoscopic variables identified in logistic regression have acceptable accuracy in predicting the risk of dysplasia, however other populations need to be studied to achieve generalisability and improve model performance.
Assuntos
Colonoscopia , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Estudos Retrospectivos , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Austrália/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Pólipos do Colo/patologia , Pólipos do Colo/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/patologia , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Modelos Logísticos , Prevalência , SíndromeRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: People being investigated for cancer face a wealth of complex information. Non-specific symptom pathways (NSS) were implemented in the United Kingdom in 2017 to address the needs of patients experiencing symptoms such as weight loss, fatigue or general practitioner 'gut feeling', who did not have streamlined pathways for cancer investigation. This study aimed to explore the health literacy skills needed by patients being investigated for cancer in NSS pathways. METHODS: This study employed ethnographic methods across four hospitals in England, including interviews, patient shadowing and clinical care observations, to examine NSS pathways for cancer diagnosis. We recruited 27 patients who were shadowed and interviewed during their care. We also interviewed 27 professionals. The analysis focused on patient communication and understanding, drawing on the concepts of personal and organisational health literacy. RESULTS: Our analysis derived six themes highlighting the considerable informational demands of the NSS pathway. Patients were required to understand complex blood tests and investigations in primary care and often did not understand why they were referred. The NSS pathway itself was difficult to understand with only a minority of patients appreciating that multiple organs were being investigated for cancer. The process of progressing through the pathway was also difficult to understand, particularly around who was making decisions and what would happen next. The results of investigations were complex, often including incidental findings. Patients whose persistent symptoms were not explained were often unsure of what to do following discharge. CONCLUSION: We have identified several potential missed opportunities for organisations to support patient understanding of NSS pathways which could lead to inappropriate help-seeking post-discharge. Patients' difficulties in comprehending previous investigations and findings could result in delays, overtesting or inadequately targeted investigations, hindering the effective use of their medical history. Third, patients' limited understanding of their investigations and results may impede their ability to engage in patient safety by reporting potential care errors. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Patient, public, clinical and policy representatives contributed to developing the research objectives through a series of meetings and individual conversations in preparation for the study. We have held several events in which patients and the public have had an opportunity to give feedback about our results, such as local interest groups in North London and academic conferences. A clinical contributor (J.-A. M.) was involved in data analysis and writing the manuscript.
Assuntos
Antropologia Cultural , Letramento em Saúde , Neoplasias , Humanos , Neoplasias/terapia , Feminino , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Inglaterra , Idoso , Adulto , Entrevistas como Assunto , Comunicação , Pesquisa QualitativaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Following referral for investigation of urgent suspected cancer within the English National Health Service referral system, 7% of referred individuals are diagnosed with cancer. This study aimed to investigate the risk of cancer occurrence within 1-5 years of finding no cancer following an urgent suspected cancer referral. METHODS: This national cohort study used urgent suspected cancer referral data for England from the Cancer Waiting Times dataset and linked it with cancer diagnosis data from the National Cancer Registration dataset. Data were extracted for the eight most commonly referred to urgent suspected cancer referral pathways (breast, gynaecological, head and neck, lower and upper gastrointestinal, lung, skin, and urological) for the period April 1, 2013, to March 31, 2014, with 5-year follow-up for individuals with no cancer diagnosis within 1 year of referral. The primary objective was to investigate the occurrence and type of subsequent cancer in years 1-5 following an urgent suspected cancer referral when no cancer was initially found, both overall and for each of the eight referral pathways. The numbers of subsequent cancers were compared with expected cancer incidence in years 1-5 following referral, using standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) based on matched age-gender distributions of expected cancer incidence in England for the same time period. The analysis was repeated, stratifying by referral group, and by calculating the absolute and expected rate of all cancers and of the same individual cancer as the initial referral. FINDINGS: Among 1·18 million referrals without a cancer diagnosis in years 0-1, there were 63â112 subsequent cancers diagnosed 1-5 years post-referral, giving an absolute rate of 1338 (95% CI 1327-1348) cancers per 100â000 referrals per year (1038 [1027-1050] in females, 1888 [1867-1909] in males), compared with an expected rate of 1054 (1045-1064) cancers per 100â000 referrals per year (SIR 1·27 [95% CI 1·26-1·28]). The absolute rate of any subsequent cancer diagnosis 1-5 years after referral was lowest following suspected breast cancer referral (746 [728-763] cancers per 100â000 referrals per year) and highest following suspected urological (2110 [2070-2150]) or lung cancer (1835 [1767-1906]) referral. For diagnosis of the same cancer as the initial referral pathway, the highest absolute rates were for the urological and lung pathways (1011 [984-1039] and 638 [598-680] cancers per 100â000 referrals per year, respectively). The highest relative risks of subsequent diagnosis of the same cancer as the initial referral pathway were for the head and neck pathway (SIR 3·49 [95% CI 3·22-3·78]) and lung pathway (3·00 [2·82-3·20]). INTERPRETATION: Cancer risk was higher than expected in the 5 years following an urgent suspected cancer referral. The potential for targeted interventions, such as proactive monitoring, safety-netting, and cancer awareness or risk reduction initiatives should be investigated. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK.
Assuntos
Neoplasias Pulmonares , Medicina Estatal , Masculino , Feminino , Humanos , Estudos de Coortes , Risco , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Pulmonares/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia , Encaminhamento e ConsultaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Analysis of circulating tumour DNA could stratify cancer risk in symptomatic patients. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a methylation-based multicancer early detection (MCED) diagnostic test in symptomatic patients referred from primary care. METHODS: We did a multicentre, prospective, observational study at National Health Service (NHS) hospital sites in England and Wales. Participants aged 18 or older referred with non-specific symptoms or symptoms potentially due to gynaecological, lung, or upper or lower gastrointestinal cancers were included and gave a blood sample when they attended for urgent investigation. Participants were excluded if they had a history of or had received treatment for an invasive or haematological malignancy diagnosed within the preceding 3 years, were taking cytotoxic or demethylating agents that might interfere with the test, or had participated in another study of a GRAIL MCED test. Patients were followed until diagnostic resolution or up to 9 months. Cell-free DNA was isolated and the MCED test performed blinded to the clinical outcome. MCED predictions were compared with the diagnosis obtained by standard care to establish the primary outcomes of overall positive and negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity. Outcomes were assessed in participants with a valid MCED test result and diagnostic resolution. SYMPLIFY is registered with ISRCTN (ISRCTN10226380) and has completed follow-up at all sites. FINDINGS: 6238 participants were recruited between July 7 and Nov 30, 2021, across 44 hospital sites. 387 were excluded due to staff being unable to draw blood, sample errors, participant withdrawal, or identification of ineligibility after enrolment. Of 5851 clinically evaluable participants, 376 had no MCED test result and 14 had no information as to final diagnosis, resulting in 5461 included in the final cohort for analysis with an evaluable MCED test result and diagnostic outcome (368 [6·7%] with a cancer diagnosis and 5093 [93·3%] without a cancer diagnosis). The median age of participants was 61·9 years (IQR 53·4-73·0), 3609 (66·1%) were female and 1852 (33·9%) were male. The MCED test detected a cancer signal in 323 cases, in whom 244 cancer was diagnosed, yielding a positive predictive value of 75·5% (95% CI 70·5-80·1), negative predictive value of 97·6% (97·1-98·0), sensitivity of 66·3% (61·2-71·1), and specificity of 98·4% (98·1-98·8). Sensitivity increased with increasing age and cancer stage, from 24·2% (95% CI 16·0-34·1) in stage I to 95·3% (88·5-98·7) in stage IV. For cases in which a cancer signal was detected among patients with cancer, the MCED test's prediction of the site of origin was accurate in 85·2% (95% CI 79·8-89·3) of cases. Sensitivity 80·4% (95% CI 66·1-90·6) and negative predictive value 99·1% (98·2-99·6) were highest for patients with symptoms mandating investigation for upper gastrointestinal cancer. INTERPRETATION: This first large-scale prospective evaluation of an MCED diagnostic test in a symptomatic population demonstrates the feasibility of using an MCED test to assist clinicians with decisions regarding urgency and route of referral from primary care. Our data provide the basis for a prospective, interventional study in patients presenting to primary care with non-specific signs and symptoms. FUNDING: GRAIL Bio UK.
Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Neoplasias , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , País de Gales/epidemiologia , Medicina Estatal , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Inglaterra/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Cancer survival has improved since the 1990s, but to different extents across age groups, with a disadvantage for older adults. We aimed to quantify age-related differences in relative survival (RS-1-year and 1-year conditioning on surviving 1 year) for 10 common cancer types by stage at diagnosis. We used data from 18 United States Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results cancer registries and included cancers diagnosed in 2012 to 2016 followed until December 31, 2017. We estimated absolute differences in RS between the 50 to 64 age group and the 75 to 84 age group. The smallest differences were observed for prostate and breast cancers (1.8%-points [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.5-2.1] and 1.9%-points [95% CI: 1.5-2.3], respectively). The largest was for ovarian cancer (27%-points, 95% CI: 24-29). For other cancers, differences ranged between 7 (95% CI: 5-9, esophagus) and 18%-points (95% CI: 17-19, pancreas). Except for pancreatic cancer, cancer type and stage combinations with very high (>95%) or very low (<40%) 1-year RS tended to have smaller age-related differences in survival than those with mid-range prognoses. Age-related differences in 1-year survival conditioning on having survived 1-year were small for most cancer and stage combinations. The broad variation in survival differences by age across cancer types and stages, especially in the first year, age-related differences in survival are likely influenced by amenability to treatment. Future work to measure the extent of age-related differences that are avoidable, and identify how to narrow the survival gap, may have most benefit by prioritizing cancers with relatively large age-related differences in survival (eg, stomach, esophagus, liver and pancreas).
Assuntos
Neoplasias da Mama , Neoplasias , Masculino , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Idoso , Programa de SEER , Sistema de Registros , Prognóstico , Análise de SobrevidaRESUMO
Faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) has a high sensitivity for the detection of colorectal cancer (CRC). In a symptomatic population FIT may identify those patients who require colorectal investigation with the highest priority. FIT offers considerable advantages over the use of symptoms alone, as an objective measure of risk with a vastly superior positive predictive value for CRC, while conversely identifying a truly low risk cohort of patients. The aim of this guideline was to provide a clear strategy for the use of FIT in the diagnostic pathway of people with signs or symptoms of a suspected diagnosis of CRC. The guideline was jointly developed by the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland/British Society of Gastroenterology, specifically by a 21-member multidisciplinary guideline development group (GDG). A systematic review of 13 535 publications was undertaken to develop 23 evidence and expert opinion-based recommendations for the triage of people with symptoms of a suspected CRC diagnosis in primary care. In order to achieve consensus among a broad group of key stakeholders, we completed an extended Delphi of the GDG, and also 61 other individuals across the UK and Ireland, including by members of the public, charities and primary and secondary care. Seventeen research recommendations were also prioritised to inform clinical management.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer is an important cause of death worldwide. The number of years of life lost (YLL) due to prostate cancer is a metric of the toll of prostate cancer and using projections of demographic changes, can be used to measure future burden. METHODS: Prostate cancer mortality data by country and world region was retrieved from the Global Cancer Observatory and the World Health Organization mortality data set, and life expectancy was from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. We estimated YLL as the difference between age at death in people with prostate cancer and remaining life expectancy for people of the same age in the general population. We also estimated the age-standardized YLL rates per 100,000 males over 50 and the average annual percentage change in YLL rates over the period 2000-2019 and the number of YLL for the year 2040 by applying population projections to the 2020 YLL rates. RESULTS: In 2020, 3.5 million person-years of life were lost due to prostate cancer in males over 50, and 40% of YLL were in those aged over 75. Age-standardized rates varied greatly between and within regions. Over the last two decades, rates of YLL have increased in many Asian and African countries while they have decreased in northern American and European countries. Globally, YLL are anticipated to double by 2040 to reach 7.5 million, with the greatest increases in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. CONCLUSION: There are wide variations in the burden of prostate cancer globally as measured by YLL. The burden of prostate cancer is projected to increase over time and appears to be highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean. It will be critical to plan and implement programs to reduce the burden of prostate cancer globally.
Assuntos
Expectativa de Vida , Neoplasias da Próstata , Idoso , Região do Caribe/epidemiologia , Humanos , Masculino , Neoplasias da Próstata/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: It remains unclear to what extent reductions in urgent referrals for suspected cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic were the result of fewer patients attending primary care compared to GPs referring fewer patients. METHODS: Cohort study including electronic health records data from 8,192,069 patients from 663 English practices. Weekly consultation rates, cumulative consultations and referrals were calculated for 28 clinical features from the NICE suspected cancer guidelines. Clinical feature consultation rate ratios (CRR) and urgent referral rate ratios (RRR) compared time periods in 2020 with 2019. FINDINGS: Consultations for cancer clinical features decreased by 24.19% (95% CI: 24.04-24.34%) between 2019 and 2020, particularly in the 6-12 weeks following the first national lockdown. Urgent referrals for clinical features decreased by 10.47% (95% CI: 9.82-11.12%) between 2019 and 2020. Overall, once patients consulted with primary care, GPs urgently referred a similar or greater proportion of patients compared to previous years. CONCLUSION: Due to the significant fall in patients consulting with clinical features of cancer there was a lower than expected number of urgent referrals in 2020. Sustained efforts should be made throughout the pandemic to encourage the public to consult their GP with cancer clinical features.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , Neoplasias , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Humanos , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/terapia , Pandemias , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Encaminhamento e ConsultaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Faecal immunochemical tests (FITs) are used to triage primary care patients with symptoms that could be caused by colorectal cancer for referral to colonoscopy. The aim of this study was to determine whether combining FIT with routine blood test results could improve the performance of FIT in the primary care setting. METHODS: Results of all consecutive FITs requested by primary care providers between March 2017 and December 2020 were retrieved from the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. Demographic factors (age, sex), reason for referral, and results of blood tests within 90 days were also retrieved. Patients were followed up for incident colorectal cancer in linked hospital records. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of FIT alone, FIT paired with blood test results, and several multivariable FIT models, were compared. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine colorectal cancers were diagnosed (0.8%). Sensitivity and specificity of FIT alone at a threshold of 10 µg Hb/g were 92.1 and 91.5% respectively. Compared to FIT alone, blood test results did not improve the performance of FIT. Pairing blood test results with FIT increased specificity but decreased sensitivity. Multivariable models including blood tests performed similarly to FIT alone. CONCLUSIONS: FIT is a highly sensitive tool for identifying higher risk individuals presenting to primary care with lower risk symptoms. Combining blood test results with FIT does not appear to lead to better discrimination for colorectal cancer than using FIT alone.
Assuntos
Neoplasias Colorretais , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Colonoscopia/métodos , Neoplasias Colorretais/diagnóstico , Neoplasias Colorretais/epidemiologia , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Humanos , Sangue Oculto , Atenção Primária à SaúdeRESUMO
For the past decade, within family medicine there has been a focus on cultivating doctors gut feelings as 'a way of knowing' in cancer diagnostics. In this paper, building on interviews with family doctors in Oxford shire, UK we explore the embodied and temporal dimensions of clinical reasoning and how the cultivation of doctors' gut feelings is related to hierarchies of medical knowledge, professional training, and doctors' fears of litigation. Also, we suggest that the introduction of gut feeling in clinical practice is an attempt to develop a theory of clinical reasoning that fits the biopolitics of our contemporary. The turn towards predictive medicine and the values introduced by accelerated diagnostic regimes, we conclude, introduce a need for situated and embodied modes of reading bodies. We contribute theoretically by framing our analysis within a sensorial anthropology approach.
Assuntos
Medicina de Família e Comunidade , Médicos , Atitude do Pessoal de Saúde , Emoções , Humanos , PolíticaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Unexpected weight loss (UWL) is a presenting feature of cancer in primary care. Existing research proposes simple combinations of clinical features (risk factors, symptoms, signs, and blood test data) that, when present, warrant cancer investigation. More complex combinations may modify cancer risk to sufficiently rule-out the need for investigation. We aimed to identify which clinical features can be used together to stratify patients with UWL based on their risk of cancer. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from 63,973 adults (age: mean 59 years, standard deviation 21 years; 42% male) to predict cancer in patients with UWL recorded in a large representative United Kingdom primary care electronic health record between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2012. We derived 3 clinical prediction models using logistic regression and backwards stepwise covariate selection: Sm, symptoms-only model; STm, symptoms and tests model; Tm, tests-only model. Fifty imputations replaced missing data. Estimates of discrimination and calibration were derived using 10-fold internal cross-validation. Simple clinical risk scores are presented for models with the greatest clinical utility in decision curve analysis. The STm and Tm showed improved discrimination (area under the curve ≥ 0.91), calibration, and greater clinical utility than the Sm. The Tm was simplest including age-group, sex, albumin, alkaline phosphatase, liver enzymes, C-reactive protein, haemoglobin, platelets, and total white cell count. A Tm score of 5 balanced ruling-in (sensitivity 84.0%, positive likelihood ratio 5.36) and ruling-out (specificity 84.3%, negative likelihood ratio 0.19) further cancer investigation. A Tm score of 1 prioritised ruling-out (sensitivity 97.5%). At this threshold, 35 people presenting with UWL in primary care would be referred for investigation for each person with cancer referred, and 1,730 people would be spared referral for each person with cancer not referred. Study limitations include using a retrospective routinely collected dataset, a reliance on coding to identify UWL, and missing data for some predictors. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that combinations of simple blood test abnormalities could be used to identify patients with UWL who warrant referral for investigation, while people with combinations of normal results could be exempted from referral.
Assuntos
Análise Custo-Benefício , Testes Hematológicos/instrumentação , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Fatores de Risco , Redução de Peso , Estudos de Coortes , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Neoplasias/etiologia , Neoplasias/fisiopatologia , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Estudos Retrospectivos , Reino UnidoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: We aimed to understand the time period of cancer diagnosis and the cancer types detected in primary care patients with unexpected weight loss (UWL) to inform cancer guidelines. METHODS: This retrospective matched cohort study used cancer registry linked electronic health records from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink from between 2000 and 2014. Univariable and multivariable time-to-event analyses examined the association between UWL, and all cancers combined, cancer site and stage. RESULTS: In all, 63,973 patients had UWL recorded, of whom 1375 (2.2%) were diagnosed with cancer within 2 years (days-to-diagnosis: mean 181; median 80). Men with UWL (HR 3.28 (2.88-3.73)) and women (1.87 (1.68-2.08)) were more likely than comparators to be diagnosed with cancer within 3 months. The association was greatest in men aged ≥50 years and women ≥70 years. The commonest cancers were pancreas, cancer of unknown primary, gastro-oesophageal, lymphoma, hepatobiliary, lung, bowel and renal-tract. The majority were late-stage, but there was some evidence of association with stage II and stage III cancers. In the 3-24 months after presenting with UWL, cancer diagnosis was less likely than in comparators. CONCLUSION: UWL recorded in primary care is associated with a broad range of cancer sites of early and late-stage.
Assuntos
Neoplasias , Redução de Peso , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Estudos de Coortes , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Risco , Reino Unido , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) are pivotal to detecting current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and duration of detectable virus indicating potential for infectivity. METHODS: We conducted an individual participant data (IPD) systematic review of longitudinal studies of RT-PCR test results in symptomatic SARS-CoV-2. We searched PubMed, LitCOVID, medRxiv, and COVID-19 Living Evidence databases. We assessed risk of bias using a QUADAS-2 adaptation. Outcomes were the percentage of positive test results by time and the duration of detectable virus, by anatomical sampling sites. RESULTS: Of 5078 studies screened, we included 32 studies with 1023 SARS-CoV-2 infected participants and 1619 test results, from - 6 to 66 days post-symptom onset and hospitalisation. The highest percentage virus detection was from nasopharyngeal sampling between 0 and 4 days post-symptom onset at 89% (95% confidence interval (CI) 83 to 93) dropping to 54% (95% CI 47 to 61) after 10 to 14 days. On average, duration of detectable virus was longer with lower respiratory tract (LRT) sampling than upper respiratory tract (URT). Duration of faecal and respiratory tract virus detection varied greatly within individual participants. In some participants, virus was still detectable at 46 days post-symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: RT-PCR misses detection of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection; early sampling minimises false negative diagnoses. Beyond 10 days post-symptom onset, lower RT or faecal testing may be preferred sampling sites. The included studies are open to substantial risk of bias, so the positivity rates are probably overestimated.
Assuntos
Betacoronavirus/isolamento & purificação , Infecções por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Pneumonia Viral/diagnóstico , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase Via Transcriptase Reversa/métodos , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase Via Transcriptase Reversa/normas , Betacoronavirus/genética , COVID-19 , Teste para COVID-19 , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico , Infecções por Coronavirus/genética , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Pandemias , Pneumonia Viral/genética , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include reducing the global maternal mortality rate to less than 70 per 100,000 live births and ending preventable deaths of newborns and children under five years of age, in every country, by 2030. Maternal and perinatal death audit and review is widely recommended as an intervention to reduce maternal and perinatal mortality, and to improve quality of care, and could be key to attaining the SDGs. However, there is uncertainty over the most cost-effective way of auditing and reviewing deaths: community-based audit (verbal and social autopsy), facility-based audits (significant event analysis (SEA)) or a combination of both (confidential enquiry). OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of different types of death audits and reviews in reducing maternal, perinatal and child mortality. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the following from inception to 16 January 2019: CENTRAL, Ovid MEDLINE, Embase OvidSP, and five other databases. We identified ongoing studies using ClinicalTrials.gov and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and searched reference lists of included articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Cluster-randomised trials, cluster non-randomised trials, controlled before-and-after studies and interrupted time series studies of any form of death audit or review that involved reviewing individual cases of maternal, perinatal or child deaths, identifying avoidable factors, and making recommendations. To be included in the review, a study needed to report at least one of the following outcomes: perinatal mortality rate; stillbirth rate; neonatal mortality rate; mortality rate in children under five years of age or maternal mortality rate. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) group methodological procedures. Two review authors independently extracted data, assessed risk of bias and assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE. We planned to perform a meta-analysis using a random-effects model but included studies were not homogeneous enough to make pooling their results meaningful. MAIN RESULTS: We included two cluster-randomised trials. Both introduced death review and audit as part of a multicomponent intervention, and compared this to current care. The QUARITE study (QUAlity of care, RIsk management, and TEchnology) concerned maternal death reviews in hospitals in West Africa, which had very high maternal and perinatal mortality rates. In contrast, the OPERA trial studied perinatal morbidity/mortality conferences (MMCs) in maternity units in France, which already had very low perinatal mortality rates at baseline. The OPERA intervention in France started with an outreach visit to brief obstetricians, midwives and anaesthetists on the national guidelines on morbidity/mortality case management, and was followed by a series of perinatal MMCs. Half of the intervention units were randomised to receive additional support from a clinical psychologist during these meetings. The OPERA intervention may make little or no difference to overall perinatal mortality (low certainty evidence), however we are uncertain about the effect of the intervention on perinatal mortality related to suboptimal care (very low certainty evidence).The intervention probably reduces perinatal morbidity related to suboptimal care (unadjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 0.95; 165,353 births; moderate-certainty evidence). The effect of the intervention on stillbirth rate, neonatal mortality, mortality rate in children under five years of age, maternal mortality or adverse effects was not reported. The QUARITE intervention in West Africa focused on training leaders of hospital obstetric teams using the ALARM (Advances in Labour And Risk Management) course, which included one day of training about conducting maternal death reviews. The leaders returned to their hospitals, established a multidisciplinary committee and started auditing maternal deaths, with the support of external facilitators. The intervention probably reduces inpatient maternal deaths (adjusted OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.98; 191,167 deliveries; moderate certainty evidence) and probably also reduces inpatient neonatal mortality within 24 hours following birth (adjusted OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.90; moderate certainty evidence). However, QUARITE probably makes little or no difference to the inpatient stillbirth rate (moderate certainty evidence) and may make little or no difference to the inpatient neonatal mortality rate after 24 hours, although the 95% confidence interval includes both benefit and harm (low certainty evidence). The QUARITE intervention probably increases the percent of women receiving high quality of care (OR 1.87, 95% CI 1.35 - 2.57, moderate-certainty evidence). The effect of the intervention on perinatal mortality, mortality rate in children under five years of age, or adverse effects was not reported. We did not find any studies that evaluated child death audit and review or community-based death reviews or costs. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: A complex intervention including maternal death audit and review, as well as development of local leadership and training, probably reduces inpatient maternal mortality in low-income country district hospitals, and probably slightly improves quality of care. Perinatal death audit and review, as part of a complex intervention with training, probably improves quality of care, as measured by perinatal morbidity related to suboptimal care, in a high-income setting where mortality was already very low. The WHO recommends that maternal and perinatal death reviews should be conducted in all hospitals globally. However, conducting death reviews in isolation may not be sufficient to achieve the reductions in mortality observed in the QUARITE trial. This review suggests that maternal death audit and review may need to be implemented as part of an intervention package which also includes elements such as training of a leading doctor and midwife in each hospital, annual recertification, and quarterly outreach visits by external facilitators to provide supervision and mentorship. The same may also apply to perinatal and child death reviews. More operational research is needed on the most cost-effective ways of implementing maternal, perinatal and paediatric death reviews in low- and middle-income countries.
Assuntos
Mortalidade da Criança , Auditoria Clínica , Mortalidade Infantil , Mortalidade Perinatal , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Gravidez , Complicações na Gravidez , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , NatimortoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: One-stop clinics provide comprehensive diagnostic testing in one outpatient appointment. They could benefit patients with conditions, such as cancer, whose outcomes are improved by early diagnosis, and bring efficiency savings for health systems. OBJECTIVE: To assess the use and outcomes of one-stop clinics for symptoms where cancer is a possible diagnosis. DESIGN AND SETTING: Systematic review of studies reporting use and outcomes of one-stop clinics in primary care patients. METHOD: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane Library for studies assessing one-stop clinics for adults referred after presenting to primary care with any symptom that could be indicative of cancer. Study selection was carried out independently in duplicate with disagreements resolved through discussion. RESULTS: Twenty-nine studies were identified, most were conducted in the UK and observational in design. Few included a comparison arm. A pooled comparison of the cancer conversion rate of one-stop and multi-stop clinics was only possible for breast symptoms, and we found no significant difference. One-stop clinics were associated with significant reductions in the interval from referral to testing (15 versus 75 days) and more patients diagnosed on the same day (79% versus 25%) compared to multi-stop pathways. The majority of patients and GPs found one-stop clinics to be acceptable. CONCLUSION: This review found one-stop clinics were associated with reduced time from referral to testing, increased same day diagnoses, and were acceptable to patients and GPs. Our conclusions are limited by high levels of heterogeneity, scarcity of comparator groups, and the overwhelmingly observational nature of included studies.
Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Clínicos Gerais , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Encaminhamento e Consulta/organização & administração , Humanos , Avaliação de Resultados em Cuidados de Saúde , Ensaios Clínicos Controlados Aleatórios como Assunto , Tempo para o TratamentoRESUMO
To understand Cancer Antigen 125 (CA125) testing in primary care in relation to a national guideline, we conducted a retrospective observational study including CA125 data from a well-defined region in the UK, from 2003 to 2014. 51,033 CA125 tests from 30,737 women were stratified by month and year of testing, location of test request and patient age. Absolute numbers and rates of testing, rates and proportions of positive and negative tests, and frequencies of single and repeat tests were calculated. Negative binomial and logistic regression were used to test the effect of the guideline's introduction. Primary care testing spiked in the three months following the release of the guideline. However, there was no difference in the increase in testing observed across age groups. The proportion of positive tests decreased over time despite both the rates of positive and negative tests increasing. Retesting and repeat testing were associated with the initial CA125 value with no significant difference between women whose first test was 30-35 and >35 IU/L. Large studies using linked data are required to investigate the impact of increasing CA125 testing on onward intervention and patient outcomes. CA125 guidelines should be refined to avoid over-investigation in low risk age-groups.