Farmland practices are driving bird population decline across Europe.

Declines in European bird populations are reported for decades but the direct effect of major anthropogenic pressures on such declines remains unquantified. Causal relationships between pressures and bird population responses are difficult to identify as pressures interact at different spatial scales and responses vary among species. Here, we uncover direct relationships between population time-series of 170 common bird species, monitored at more than 20,000 sites in 28 European countries, over 37 y, and four widespread anthropogenic pressures: agricultural intensification, change in forest cover, urbanisation and temperature change over the last decades. We quantify the influence of each pressure on population time-series and its importance relative to other pressures, and we identify traits of most affected species. We find that agricultural intensification, in particular pesticides and fertiliser use, is the main pressure for most bird population declines, especially for invertebrate feeders. Responses to changes in forest cover, urbanisation and temperature are more species-specific. Specifically, forest cover is associated with a positive effect and growing urbanisation with a negative effect on population dynamics, while temperature change has an effect on the dynamics of a large number of bird populations, the magnitude and direction of which depend on species' thermal preferences. Our results not only confirm the pervasive and strong effects of anthropogenic pressures on common breeding birds, but quantify the relative strength of these effects stressing the urgent need for transformative changes in the way of inhabiting the world in European countries, if bird populations shall have a chance of recovering.

The use of pembrolizumab monotherapy for the management of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in the UK.

Pembrolizumab has received approval in the UK as first-line monotherapy for recurrent and/or metastatic HNSCC (R/M HNSCC) following the results of the KEYNOTE-048 trial, which demonstrated a longer overall survival (OS) in comparison to the EXTREME chemotherapy regimen in patients with a combined positive score (CPS) ≥1. In this article, we provide retrospective real-world data on the role of pembrolizumab monotherapy as first-line systemic therapy for HNSCC across 18 centers in the UK from March 20, 2020 to May 31, 2021. 211 patients were included, and in the efficacy analysis, the objective response rate (ORR) was 24.7%, the median progression-free survival (PFS) was 4.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.6-6.1), and the median OS was 10.8 months (95% CI 9.0-12.5). Pembrolizumab monotherapy was well tolerated, with 18 patients having to stop treatment owing to immune-related adverse events (irAEs). 53 patients proceeded to second-line treatment with a median PFS2 of 10.2 months (95% CI: 8.8-11.5). Moreover, patients with documented irAEs had a statistically significant longer median PFS (11.3 vs. 3.3 months; log-rank p value = <.001) and median OS (18.8 vs. 8.9 months; log-rank p value <.001). The efficacy and safety of pembrolizumab first-line monotherapy for HNSCC has been validated using real-world data.

Advances in the Treatment of Hand and Wrist Injuries in the Elite Athlete.

Caring for hand and wrist injuries in the elite athlete brings distinct challenges, with case-by-case decisions regarding surgical intervention and return-to-play. Metacarpal fractures, thumb ulnar collateral ligament tears, and scaphoid fractures are common upper-extremity injuries in the elite athlete that can be detrimental to playing time and future participation. Treatment should therefore endure the demand of accelerated rehabilitation and return-to-activity without compromising long-term outcomes. Fortunately, the literature has supported emerging management options that support goals specific to the athlete. This review examined the advances in surgical and perioperative treatment of metacarpal fractures, thumb ulnar collateral ligament injuries, and scaphoid fractures in the elite athlete.

Introducing a common taxonomy to support learning from failure in conservation.

Although some sectors have made significant progress in learning from failure, there is currently limited consensus on how a similar transition could best be achieved in conservation and what is required to facilitate this. One of the key enabling conditions for other sectors is a widely accepted and standardized classification system for identifying and analyzing root causes of failure. We devised a comprehensive taxonomy of root causes of failure affecting conservation projects. To develop this, we solicited examples of real-life conservation efforts that were deemed to have failed in some way, identified their underlying root causes of failure, and used these to develop a generic, 3-tier taxonomy of the ways in which projects fail, at the top of which are 6 overarching cause categories that are further divided into midlevel cause categories and specific root causes. We tested the taxonomy by asking conservation practitioners to use it to classify the causes of failure for conservation efforts they had been involved in. No significant gaps or redundancies were identified during this testing phase. We then analyzed the frequency that particular root causes were encountered by projects within this test sample, which suggested that some root causes were more likely to be encountered than others and that a small number of root causes were more likely to be encountered by projects implementing particular types of conservation action. Our taxonomy could be used to improve identification, analysis, and subsequent learning from failed conservation efforts, address some of the barriers that currently limit the ability of conservation practitioners to learn from failure, and contribute to establishing an effective culture of learning from failure within conservation.

Introducción de una taxonomía común como apoyo al aprendizaje a partir del fracaso en la conservación Resumen Mientras que algunos sectores han progresado significativamente en el aprendizaje a partir del fracaso, actualmente hay un consenso limitado sobre cómo podría lograrse una transición similar en la conservación y qué se requiere para facilitarla. Una de las condiciones habilitantes más importantes en otros sectores es un sistema de clasificación estandarizado y aceptado por la mayoría para la identificación y análisis de las causas fundamentales del fracaso. Diseñamos una taxonomía completa de las causas fundamentales del fracaso que afecta a los proyectos de conservación. Para desarrollarla, solicitamos ejemplos de esfuerzos de conservación reales que de alguna manera se consideraron como fracasos, identificamos las causas fundamentales no aparentes de su fracaso y luego las usamos para desarrollar una taxonomía genérica de tres niveles de las maneras en las que fracasan los proyectos, en cuyo nivel superior están seis categorías de causas generales que después se dividen en categorías de nivel medio de categorías de causas y causas fundamentales específicas. Pusimos a prueba la taxonomía al pedirle a los practicantes de la conservación que la usaran para clasificar las causas del fracaso de los esfuerzos de conservación en los que han participado. No identificamos vacíos o redundancias importantes durante esta fase de prueba. Después, analizamos la frecuencia con la que los proyectos de esta muestra se enfrentaron a causas fundamentales particulares, lo que sugirió que algunas causas fundamentales tienen mayor probabilidad de ocurrir y que un número reducido de causas fundamentales tiene mayor probabilidad de ocurrir en proyectos que implementan ciertos tipos de acciones de conservación. Nuestra taxonomía podría usarse para mejorar el análisis, identificación y aprendizaje subsecuente a partir del fracaso de los esfuerzos de conservación; tratar algunas de las barreras que en la actualidad limitan a los practicantes de la conservación a aprender del fracaso; y contribuir al establecimiento de una cultura efectiva del aprendizaje a partir del fracaso dentro de la conservación.

Sub-regional analysis of the parotid glands: model development for predicting late xerostomia with radiomics features in head and neck cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: The irradiation of sub-regions of the parotid has been linked to xerostomia development in patients with head and neck cancer (HNC). In this study, we compared the xerostomia classification performance of radiomics features calculated on clinically relevant and de novo sub-regions of the parotid glands of HNC patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: All patients (N = 117) were treated with TomoTherapy in 30-35 fractions of 2-2.167 Gy per fraction with daily mega-voltage-CT (MVCT) acquisition for image-guidance purposes. Radiomics features (N = 123) were extracted from daily MVCTs for the whole parotid gland and nine sub-regions. The changes in feature values after each complete week of treatment were considered as predictors of xerostomia (CTCAEv4.03, grade ≥ 2) at 6 and 12 months. Combinations of predictors were generated following the removal of statistically redundant information and stepwise selection. The classification performance of the logistic regression models was evaluated on train and test sets of patients using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) associated with the different sub-regions at each week of treatment and benchmarked with the performance of models solely using dose and toxicity at baseline. RESULTS: In this study, radiomics-based models predicted xerostomia better than standard clinical predictors. Models combining dose to the parotid and xerostomia scores at baseline yielded an AUCtest of 0.63 and 0.61 for xerostomia prediction at 6 and 12 months after radiotherapy while models based on radiomics features extracted from the whole parotid yielded a maximum AUCtest of 0.67 and 0.75, respectively. Overall, across sub-regions, maximum AUCtest was 0.76 and 0.80 for xerostomia prediction at 6 and 12 months. Within the first two weeks of treatment, the cranial part of the parotid systematically yielded the highest AUCtest. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that variations of radiomics features calculated on sub-regions of the parotid glands can lead to earlier and improved prediction of xerostomia in HNC patients.

The influence of migration patterns on exposure to contaminants in Nearctic shorebirds: a historical study.

Since the 1970s, many populations of shorebirds, including those breeding in the Arctic region, have been declining. One factor that may contribute to some of these declines is exposure to contaminants throughout the annual cycle. Here, we compared contaminant exposure (organochlorines, toxic trace elements) of four Arctic-breeding shorebirds (semipalmated plover Charadrius semipalmatus, semipalmated sandpiper Calidris pusilla, lesser yellowlegs Tringa flavipes, and short-billed dowitcher Limnodromus griseus), collected during breeding, migration, and wintering to examine how and when contaminants might pose a threat to these species. In general, plovers and dowitchers had higher levels of most organochlorine pesticides, and renal cadmium (Cd) and selenium (Se) than the other species. Although we found seasonal differences, no clear patterns in contaminant concentrations among sampling locations were detected but the concentrations found at the breeding grounds were always the highest for chlorinated pesticides and mercury (Hg). Our results suggest that birds migrating south are slowly depurating contaminant burdens, and that spring-migrating birds were exposed to primarily North American rather than Latin American contaminant sources at the time of sampling. We present these data collected in the 1990s to better interpret current-day trends, and potential contaminant exposure impacts on shorebird populations.

Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales.

Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we investigate the recent impact of multiple environmental changes on European farmland birds, here focusing on climate change and land use change. We analyze more than 800 time series from 18 countries spanning the past two decades. Analysis of long-term population growth rates documents simultaneous responses that can be attributed to both climate change and land-use change, including long-term increases in populations of hot-dwelling species and declines in long-distance migrants and farmland specialists. In contrast, analysis of annual growth rates yield novel insights into the potential mechanisms driving long-term climate induced change. In particular, we find that birds are affected by winter, spring, and summer conditions depending on the distinct breeding phenology that corresponds to their migratory strategy. Birds in general benefit from higher temperatures or higher primary productivity early on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach will be of general use when high-resolution time series are available in large-scale biodiversity surveys.

Prone position for acute respiratory failure in adults.

BACKGROUND: Acute hypoxaemia de novo or on a background of chronic hypoxaemia is a common reason for admission to intensive care and for provision of mechanical ventilation. Various refinements of mechanical ventilation or adjuncts are employed to improve patient outcomes. Mortality from acute respiratory distress syndrome, one of the main contributors to the need for mechanical ventilation for hypoxaemia, remains approximately 40%. Ventilation in the prone position may improve lung mechanics and gas exchange and could improve outcomes. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this review are (1) to ascertain whether prone ventilation offers a mortality advantage when compared with traditional supine or semi recumbent ventilation in patients with severe acute respiratory failure requiring conventional invasive artificial ventilation, and (2) to supplement previous systematic reviews on prone ventilation for hypoxaemic respiratory failure in an adult population. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2014, Issue 1), Ovid MEDLINE (1950 to 31 January 2014), EMBASE (1980 to 31 January 2014), the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) (1982 to 31 January 2014) and Latin American Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS) (1992 to 31 January 2014) in Ovid MEDLINE for eligible randomized controlled trials. We also searched for studies by handsearching reference lists of relevant articles, by contacting colleagues and by handsearching published proceedings of relevant journals. We applied no language constraints, and we reran the searches in CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and LILACS in June 2015. We added five new studies of potential interest to the list of "Studies awaiting classification" and will incorporate them into formal review findings during the review update. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that examined the effects of prone position versus supine/semi recumbent position during conventional mechanical ventilation in adult participants with acute hypoxaemia. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently reviewed all trials identified by the search and assessed them for suitability, methods and quality. Two review authors extracted data, and three review authors reviewed the data extracted. We analysed data using Review Manager software and pooled included studies to determine the risk ratio (RR) for mortality and the risk ratio or mean difference (MD) for secondary outcomes; we also performed subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses. MAIN RESULTS: We identified nine relevant RCTs, which enrolled a total of 2165 participants (10 publications). All recruited participants suffered from disorders of lung function causing moderate to severe hypoxaemia and requiring mechanical ventilation, so they were fairly comparable, given the heterogeneity of specific disease diagnoses in intensive care. Risk of bias, although acceptable in the view of the review authors, was inevitable: Blinding of participants and carers to treatment allocation was not possible (face-up vs face-down).Primary analyses of short- and longer-term mortality pooled from six trials demonstrated an RR of 0.84 to 0.86 in favour of the prone position (PP), but findings were not statistically significant: In the short term, mortality for those ventilated prone was 33.4% (363/1086) and supine 38.3% (395/1031). This resulted in an RR of 0.84 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 to 1.02) marginally in favour of PP. For longer-term mortality, results showed 41.7% (462/1107) for prone and 47.1% (490/1041) for supine positions, with an RR of 0.86 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.03). The quality of the evidence for both outcomes was rated as low as a result of important potential bias and serious inconsistency.Subgroup analyses for mortality identified three groups consistently favouring PP: those recruited within 48 hours of meeting entry criteria (five trials; 1024 participants showed an RR of 0.75 (95% CI 0.59 to 94)); those treated in the PP for 16 or more hours per day (five trials; 1005 participants showed an RR of 0.77 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.99)); and participants with more severe hypoxaemia at trial entry (six trials; 1108 participants showed an RR of 0.77 (95% CI 0.65 to 0.92)). The quality of the evidence for these outcomes was rated as moderate as a result of potentially important bias.Prone positioning appeared to influence adverse effects: Pressure sores (three trials; 366 participants) with an RR of 1.37 (95% CI 1.05 to 1.79) and tracheal tube obstruction with an RR of 1.78 (95% CI 1.22 to 2.60) were increased with prone ventilation. Reporting of arrhythmias was reduced with PP, with an RR of 0.64 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.87). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found no convincing evidence of benefit nor harm from universal application of PP in adults with hypoxaemia mechanically ventilated in intensive care units (ICUs). Three subgroups (early implementation of PP, prolonged adoption of PP and severe hypoxaemia at study entry) suggested that prone positioning may confer a statistically significant mortality advantage. Additional adequately powered studies would be required to confirm or refute these possibilities of subgroup benefit but are unlikely, given results of the most recent study and recommendations derived from several published subgroup analyses. Meta-analysis of individual patient data could be useful for further data exploration in this regard. Complications such as tracheal obstruction are increased with use of prone ventilation. Long-term mortality data (12 months and beyond), as well as functional, neuro-psychological and quality of life data, are required if future studies are to better inform the role of PP in the management of hypoxaemic respiratory failure in the ICU.

Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain.

Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases: Preliminary consultation with experts within five groups (plants, terrestrial invertebrates, freshwater invertebrates, vertebrates and marine species) to derive ranked lists of potential IAS. Consensus-building across expert groups to compile and rank the entire list of potential IAS. Five hundred and ninety-one species not native to Great Britain were considered. Ninety-three of these species were agreed to constitute at least a medium risk (based on score and consensus) with respect to them arriving, establishing and posing a threat to native biodiversity. The quagga mussel, Dreissena rostriformis bugensis, received maximum scores for risk of arrival, establishment and impact; following discussions the unanimous consensus was to rank it in the top position. A further 29 species were considered to constitute a high risk and were grouped according to their ranked risk. The remaining 63 species were considered as medium risk, and included in an unranked long list. The information collated through this novel extension of the consensus method for horizon scanning provides evidence for underpinning and prioritizing management both for the species and, perhaps more importantly, their pathways of arrival. Although our study focused on Great Britain, we suggest that the methods adopted are applicable globally.

Surveying the global landscape of post-transcriptional regulators.

Numerous proteins regulate gene expression by modulating mRNA translation and decay. To uncover the full scope of these post-transcriptional regulators, we conducted an unbiased survey that quantifies regulatory activity across the budding yeast proteome and delineates the protein domains responsible for these effects. Our approach couples a tethered function assay with quantitative single-cell fluorescence measurements to analyze ~50,000 protein fragments and determine their effects on a tethered mRNA. We characterize hundreds of strong regulators, which are enriched for canonical and unconventional mRNA-binding proteins. Regulatory activity typically maps outside the RNA-binding domains themselves, highlighting a modular architecture that separates mRNA targeting from post-transcriptional regulation. Activity often aligns with intrinsically disordered regions that can interact with other proteins, even in core mRNA translation and degradation factors. Our results thus reveal networks of interacting proteins that control mRNA fate and illuminate the molecular basis for post-transcriptional gene regulation.

Air Quality Implications of Using Ammonia as a Renewable Fuel: How Low Can NOx Emissions Go?

In addition to their lifecycle carbon emissions, another important issue with decarbonized energy pathways is their air quality, water, or land use implications. This paper considers the air quality issue for ammonia combustion. When directly combusting ammonia, reactions of its N atom with atmospheric oxygen lead to NOx emissions that are O(103) ppm, 2 orders of magnitude higher than EPA limits or the amount emitted by current natural-gas-fired technologies. In order to provide guidance to policymakers and technologists on what is fundamentally possible, this Perspective analyzes the fundamental minimum NOx emissions that can be produced from ammonia combustion. The analysis shows that it is possible to achieve quite low NOx emission levels of O(10) ppm, but these designs differ markedly from those used in today's lean, premixed combustion systems.

Machine-learning with region-level radiomic and dosimetric features for predicting radiotherapy-induced rectal toxicities in prostate cancer patients.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study aims to build machine learning models to predict radiation-induced rectal toxicities for three clinical endpoints and explore whether the inclusion of radiomic features calculated on radiotherapy planning computerised tomography (CT) scans combined with dosimetric features can enhance the prediction performance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 183 patients recruited to the VoxTox study (UK-CRN-ID-13716) were included. Toxicity scores were prospectively collected after 2 years with grade ≥ 1 proctitis, haemorrhage (CTCAEv4.03); and gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity (RTOG) recorded as the endpoints of interest. The rectal wall on each slice was divided into 4 regions according to the centroid, and all slices were divided into 4 sections to calculate region-level radiomic and dosimetric features. The patients were split into a training set (75%, N = 137) and a test set (25%, N = 46). Highly correlated features were removed using four feature selection methods. Individual radiomic or dosimetric or combined (radiomic + dosimetric) features were subsequently classified using three machine learning classifiers to explore their association with these radiation-induced rectal toxicities. RESULTS: The test set area under the curve (AUC) values were 0.549, 0.741 and 0.669 for proctitis, haemorrhage and GI toxicity prediction using radiomic combined with dosimetric features. The AUC value reached 0.747 for the ensembled radiomic-dosimetric model for haemorrhage. CONCLUSIONS: Our preliminary results show that region-level pre-treatment planning CT radiomic features have the potential to predict radiation-induced rectal toxicities for prostate cancer. Moreover, when combined with region-level dosimetric features and using ensemble learning, the model prediction performance slightly improved.

Clinical, Radiographic, and Patient-Reported Outcomes of First Metatarsophalangeal Interposition Arthrodesis Using Porous Titanium Wedges.

BACKGROUND: First metatarsophalangeal (MTP) arthrodesis is a common surgical procedure for addressing hallux MTP pathology. In the setting of revision procedures with significant bone loss, porous titanium wedges may provide an alternative to structural bone autograft or allograft. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to report the clinical and radiographic outcomes achieved in first MTP interposition arthrodesis using porous titanium wedges. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 9 patients with a mean age 65.4 years (45-82 years) who underwent first MTP interposition arthrodesis with the use of porous titanium wedges from February 2014 to September 2017 was performed. Outcomes were assessed using both plain-film radiographs and computed tomography (CT) scans, as well as patient-reported outcome measures, including Foot and Ankle Ability Measure (FAAM) (Sports and Activities of Daily Living), pain Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and 36-Item Short Form Survey (SF-36). Average follow-up time was 34.2 months (14-72 months). RESULTS: At final follow-up, the average FAAM score was 91.1 ± 14.7 (75.1 ± 5.3 FAAM Activities of Daily Living; 17.9 ± 9.9 FAAM Sports). Average pain VAS score was 1.9 ± 1.7. Postoperative computed tomography (CT) imaging was obtained for 5 patients, all of which demonstrated good bony apposition or osseous integration of the wedge. Four patients underwent subsequent surgical procedures, including 3 isolated dorsal fixation revisions, and 1 complete MTP arthrodesis revision. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this study represents the first reported clinical and radiographic outcomes in patients undergoing first MTP interposition arthrodesis with use of porous titanium wedges. While we found this technique to be a viable alternative to bone grafting for this difficult problem, further research should focus on comparative data with other commonly performed operative techniques. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level IV: Case series.

Assessing the generalisability of radiomics features previously identified as predictive of radiation-induced sticky saliva and xerostomia.

Background and purpose: While core to the scientific approach, reproducibility of experimental results is challenging in radiomics studies. A recent publication identified radiomics features that are predictive of late irradiation-induced toxicity in head and neck cancer (HNC) patients. In this study, we assessed the generalisability of these findings. Materials and Methods: The procedure described in the publication in question was applied to a cohort of 109 HNC patients treated with 50-70 Gy in 20-35 fractions using helical radiotherapy although there were inherent differences between the two patient populations and methodologies. On each slice of the planning CT with delineated parotid and submandibular glands, the imaging features that were previously identified as predictive of moderate-to-severe xerostomia and sticky saliva 12 months post radiotherapy (Xer12m and SS12m) were calculated. Specifically, Short Run Emphasis (SRE) and maximum CT intensity (maxHU) were evaluated for improvement in prediction of Xer12m and SS12m respectively, compared to models solely using baseline toxicity and mean dose to the salivary glands. Results: None of the associations previously identified as statistically significant and involving radiomics features in univariate or multivariate models could be reproduced on our cohort. Conclusion: The discrepancies observed between the results of the two studies delineate limits to the generalisability of the previously reported findings. This may be explained by the differences in the approaches, in particular the imaging characteristics and subsequent methodological implementation. This highlights the importance of external validation, high quality reporting guidelines and standardisation protocols to ensure generalisability, replication and ultimately clinical implementation.

Drivers of the changing abundance of European birds at two spatial scales.

Detecting biodiversity change and identifying its causes is challenging because biodiversity is multifaceted and temporal data often contain bias. Here, we model temporal change in species' abundance and biomass by using extensive data describing the population sizes and trends of native breeding birds in the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). In addition, we explore how species' population trends vary with species' traits. We demonstrate significant change in the bird assemblages of the UK and EU, with substantial reductions in overall bird abundance and losses concentrated in a relatively small number of abundant and smaller sized species. By contrast, rarer and larger birds had generally fared better. Simultaneously, overall avian biomass had increased very slightly in the UK and was stable in the EU, indicating a change in community structure. Abundance trends across species were positively correlated with species' body mass and with trends in climate suitability, and varied with species' abundance, migration strategy and niche associations linked to diet. Our work highlights how changes in biodiversity cannot be captured easily by a single number; care is required when measuring and interpreting biodiversity change given that different metrics can provide very different insights. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species' ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the changing distributions of 378 European breeding bird species over 30 years to explore the putative drivers of recent range dynamics, considering the effects of climate, land cover, other environmental variables, and species' traits on the probability of local colonisation and extinction. On average, species shifted their ranges by 2.4 km/year. These shifts, however, were significantly different from expectations due to changing climate and land cover. We found that local colonisation and extinction events were influenced primarily by initial climate conditions and by species' range traits. By contrast, changes in climate suitability over the period were less important. This highlights the limitations of using only climate and land cover when projecting future changes in species' ranges and emphasises the need for integrative, multi-predictor approaches for more robust forecasting.

Effects of density, species interactions, and environmental stochasticity on the dynamics of British bird communities.

Our knowledge of the factors affecting species abundances is mainly based on time-series analyses of a few well-studied species at single or few localities, but we know little about whether results from such analyses can be extrapolated to the community level. We apply a joint species distribution model to long-term time-series data on British bird communities to examine the relative contribution of intra- and interspecific density dependence at different spatial scales, as well as the influence of environmental stochasticity, to spatiotemporal interspecific variation in abundance. Intraspecific density dependence has the major structuring effect on these bird communities. In addition, environmental fluctuations affect spatiotemporal differences in abundance. In contrast, species interactions had a minor impact on variation in abundance. Thus, important drivers of single-species dynamics are also strongly affecting dynamics of communities in time and space.

Long-term trends of second generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs) show widespread contamination of a bird-eating predator, the Eurasian Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) in Britain.

Second generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs) are widely used to control rodents around the world. However, contamination by SGARs is detectable in many non-target species, particularly carnivorous mammals or birds-of-prey that hunt or scavenge on poisoned rodents. The SGAR trophic transfer pathway via rodents and their predators/scavengers appears widespread, but little is known of other pathways of SGAR contamination in non-target wildlife. This is despite the detection of SGARs in predators that do not eat rodents, such as specialist bird-eating hawks. We used a Bayesian modelling framework to examine the extent and spatio-temporal trends of SGAR contamination in the livers of 259 Eurasian Sparrowhawks, a specialist bird-eating raptor, in regions of Britain during 1995-2015. SGARs, predominantly difenacoum, were detected in 81% of birds, with highest concentrations in males and adults. SGAR concentrations in birds were lowest in Scotland and higher or increasing in other regions of Britain, which had a greater arable or urban land cover where SGARs may be widely deployed for rodent control. However, there was no overall trend for Britain, and 97% of SGAR residues in Eurasian Sparrowhawks were below 100 ng/g (wet weight), which is a potential threshold for lethal effects. The results have potential implications for the population decline of Eurasian Sparrowhawks in Britain. Fundamentally, the results indicate an extensive and persistent contamination of the avian trophic transfer pathway on a national scale, where bird-eating raptors and, by extension, their prey appear to be widely exposed to SGARs. Consequently, these findings have implications for wildlife contamination worldwide, wherever these common rodenticides are deployed, as widespread exposure of non-target species can apparently occur via multiple trophic transfer pathways involving birds as well as rodents.