Earth and field observations underpin metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes: Near-term study on carabids.

Understanding risks to biodiversity requires predictions of the spatial distribution of species adapting to changing ecosystems and, to that end, Earth observations integrating field surveys prove essential as they provide key numbers for assessing landscape-wide biodiversity scenarios. Here, we develop, and apply to a relevant case study, a method suited to merge Earth/field observations with spatially explicit stochastic metapopulation models to study the near-term ecological dynamics of target species in complex terrains. Our framework incorporates the use of species distribution models for a reasoned estimation of the initial presence of the target species and accounts for imperfect and incomplete detection of the species presence in the study area. It also uses a metapopulation fitness function derived from Earth observation data subsuming the ecological niche of the target species. This framework is applied to contrast occupancy of two species of carabids (Pterostichus flavofemoratus, Carabus depressus) observed in the context of a large ecological monitoring program carried out within the Gran Paradiso National Park (GPNP, Italy). Results suggest that the proposed framework may indeed exploit the hallmarks of spatially explicit ecological approaches and of remote Earth observations. The model reproduces well the observed in situ data. Moreover, it projects in the near term the two species' presence both in space and in time, highlighting the features of the metapopulation dynamics of colonization and extinction, and their expected trends within verifiable timeframes.

MOCRA: a Monte Carlo code for the simulation of radiative transfer in the atmosphere.

This paper describes the radiative transfer model (RTM) MOCRA (MOnte Carlo Radiance Analysis), developed in the frame of DOAS (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) to correctly interpret remote sensing measurements of trace gas amounts in the atmosphere through the calculation of the Air Mass Factor. Besides the DOAS-related quantities, the MOCRA code yields: 1- the atmospheric transmittance in the vertical and sun directions, 2- the direct and global irradiance, 3- the single- and multiple- scattered radiance for a detector with assigned position, line of sight and field of view. Sample calculations of the main radiometric quantities calculated with MOCRA are presented and compared with the output of another RTM (MODTRAN4). A further comparison is presented between the NO2 slant column densities (SCDs) measured with DOAS at Evora (Portugal) and the ones simulated with MOCRA. Both comparisons (MOCRA-MODTRAN4 and MOCRA-observations) gave more than satisfactory results, and overall make MOCRA a versatile tool for atmospheric radiative transfer simulations and interpretation of remote sensing measurements.

Predicting the vulnerability of seasonally-flooded wetlands to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin.

Wetlands have been declining worldwide over the last century with climate change becoming an additional pressure, especially in regions already characterized by water deficit. This paper investigates how climate change will affect the values and functions of Mediterranean seasonally-flooded wetlands with emergent vegetation. We simulated the future evolution of water balance, wetland condition and water volumes necessary to maintain these ecosystems at mid- and late- 21st century, in 229 localities around the Mediterranean basin. We considered future projections of the relevant climatic variables under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios assuming a stabilization (RCP4.5) or increase (RCP 8.5) of greenhouse gases emissions. We found similar increases of water deficits at most localities around 2050 under both RCP scenarios. By 2100, however, water deficits under RCP 8.5 are expected to be more severe and will impact all localities. Simulations performed under current conditions show that 97% of localities could have wetland habitats in good state. By 2050, however, this proportion would decrease to 81% and 68% under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, decreasing further to 52% and 27% by 2100. Our results suggest that wetlands can persist with up to a 400 mm decrease in annual precipitation. Such resilience to climate change is attributed to the semi-permanent character of wetlands (lower evaporation on dry ground) and their capacity to act as reservoir (higher precipitation expected in some countries during winter). Countries at highest risk of wetland degradation and loss are Algeria, Morocco, Portugal and Spain. Degradation of wetlands with emergent vegetation will negatively affect their biodiversity and the services they provide by eliminating animal refuges and primary resources for industry and tourism. A sound strategy to preserve these wetlands would consist of proactive management to reduce non-climate stressors.

Evidence for a link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and annual asthma mortality rates in the US.

An association between climatic conditions and asthma mortality has been widely assumed. However, it is unclear whether climatic variations have a fingerprint on asthma dynamics over long time intervals. The aim of this study is to detect a possible correlation between climatic indices, namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and asthma mortality rates over the period from 1950 to 2015 in the contiguous US. To this aim, an analysis of non-stationary and non-linear signals was performed on time series of US annual asthma mortality rates, AMO and PDO indices to search for characteristic periodicities. Results revealed that asthma death rates evaluated for four different age groups (5-14 yr; 15-24 yr; 25-34 yr; 35-44 yr) share the same pattern of fluctuation throughout the 1950-2015 time interval, but different trends, i.e. a positive (negative) trend for the two youngest (oldest) categories. Annual asthma death rates turned out to be correlated with the dynamics of the AMO, and also modulated by the PDO, sharing the same averaged ∼44 year-periodicity. The results of the current study suggest that, since climate patterns have proved to influence asthma mortality rates, they could be advisable in future studies aimed at elucidating the complex relationships between climate and asthma mortality.

Implications of climate change on landslide hazard in Central Italy.

The relation between climate change and its potential effects on the stability of slopes remains an open issue. For rainfall induced landslides, the point consists in determining the effects of the projected changes in the duration and amounts of rainfall that can initiate slope failures. We investigated the relationship between fine-scale climate projections obtained by downscaling and the expected modifications in landslide occurrence in Central Italy. We used rainfall measurements taken by 56 rain gauges in the 9-year period 2003-2011, and the RainFARM technique to generate downscaled synthetic rainfall fields from regional climate model projections for the 14-year calibration period 2002-2015, and for the 40-year projection period 2010-2049. Using a specific algorithm, we extracted a number of rainfall events, i.e. rainfall periods separated by dry periods of no or negligible amount of rain, from the measured and the synthetic rainfall series. Then, we used the selected rainfall events to forcethe Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model TRIGRS v. 2.1. We analyzed the results in terms of variations (or lack of variations) in the rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides, in the probability distribution of landslide size (area), and in landslide hazard. Results showed that the downscaled rainfall fields obtained by RainFARM can be used to single out rainfall events, and to force the slope stability model. Results further showed that while the rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence are expected to change in future scenarios, the probability distribution of landslide areas are not. We infer that landslide hazard in the study area is expected to change in response to the projected variations in the rainfall conditions. We expect our results to contribute to regional investigations of the expected impact of projected climate variations on slope stability conditions and on landslide hazards.

Plasma nerve growth factor (NGF) and inflammatory cytokines (IL-6 and MCP-1) in young and adult subjects with Down syndrome: an interesting pathway.

OBJECTIVES: Down's syndrome (DS) is the most frequent chromosomal aberration in men and it is invariably associated with mental retardation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Plasma levels of nerve growth factor (NGF), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) from non demented DS subjects of three different age-cohorts (2-14 years; 20-50 yrs; >60 yrs) and healthy controls were measured. No clinical and sub-clinical inflammation was apparent in DS patients. RESULTS: Plasma levels of NGF were higher in children, adult and old DS subjects than in controls. However, a significant age-related decrease of NGF levels was present in DS subjects. Serum levels of IL-6 and MCP-1 were also increased in DS children and adults, but not in older DS patients. CONCLUSIONS: High levels of circulating NGF might protect DS from clinical complications of atherosclerosis. However, the striking decrement of peripheral NGF levels with advancing age may predispose DS to clinical manifestation of dementia after adulthood.

Dynamic QuantiFERON Response in Psoriasis Patients Taking Long-Term Biologic Therapy.

INTRODUCTION: The risk of active tuberculosis is increased in psoriasis patients receiving biologic drug therapy. The QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube assay (QFT) is used for latent tuberculosis screening in these patients. This study presents a retrospective analysis on repeated QFT assays, investigating the influence of biologic drugs and isoniazid therapy on the outcome of the assay. METHODS: Serial QFTs of 58 psoriasis patients, who received biologic drug therapy, were evaluated at baseline and after 12 months of treatment. Patients were retrospectively divided in four groups according to QFT results at baseline and at follow-up: patients having a QFT reversion (from positive to negative results); patients with a conversion (from negative to positive); patients confirming the baseline results, either positive or negative. RESULTS: At the end of the 12-months period, 11.1% of patients with a negative QFT result at baseline presented a conversion, showing low interferon (IFN)-gamma values, whereas 6.9% of positive patients presented a QFT reversion. When the test was repeated after 2-3 months without isoniazid chemoprophylaxis, patients with QFT conversion showed negative results. No patient developed active tuberculosis. CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing biologic therapy, a positive QFT assay needs to be further confirmed, as false-positive results may occur after long-term therapy. Repeating QFT tests in patients with low IFN-gamma values could reduce the incidence of false-positive latent tuberculosis infection diagnosis, thus preventing unnecessary tuberculosis chemoprophylaxis. In conclusion, a dynamic QFT response is possible in psoriasis patients undergoing biologic therapy.

Use of dithiothreitol to improve the diagnosis of prosthetic joint infections.

Diagnosis of prosthetic joint infections (PJIs) remains a challenge for microbiologists, despite new techniques for bacteria isolation have been developed in recent years. A widely recognized standard method has not yet been indicated mainly because of limitations due difficult procedures and need of dedicated instrumentation. We evaluated the ability of a sulfhydryl compound routinely used in microbiology laboratories, dithiothreitol (DTT), to dislodge bacteria from biofilm, keeping them alive and cultivable for identification and antibiotic susceptibility testing. We compared DTT treatment against sonication of prosthesis and culture of periprosthetic tissues, in order to establish if it could be introduced in routine microbiological diagnosis of PJIs. The study was conducted on 76 patients, 34 with aseptic loosening of their prosthesis and 42 who were diagnosed for PJI. DTT treatment gave results similar to sonication in terms of bacterial yielding. Sonication provided higher sensitivity (71.4%) and specificity (94.1%) respect to periprosthetic tissue culture, while DTT showed the same specificity of sonication but a better sensitivity (85.7%), especially when the causative microorganism was Staphylococcus epidermidis. In conclusion, we demonstrated that DTT could be used for PJIs diagnosis, thanks to its ease of use and its high sensitivity and specificity.