Metformin Use in the First Trimester of Pregnancy and Risk for Nonlive Birth and Congenital Malformations: Emulating a Target Trial Using Real-World Data.

BACKGROUND: Metformin is a first-line pharmacotherapy for type 2 diabetes, but there is limited evidence about its safety in early pregnancy. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the teratogenicity of metformin use in the first trimester of pregnancy. DESIGN: In an observational cohort of pregnant women with pregestational type 2 diabetes receiving metformin monotherapy before the last menstrual period (LMP), a target trial with 2 treatment strategies was emulated: insulin monotherapy (discontinue metformin treatment and initiate insulin within 90 days of LMP) or insulin plus metformin (continue metformin and initiate insulin within 90 days of LMP). SETTING: U.S. Medicaid health care administration database (2000 to 2018). PARTICIPANTS: 12 489 pregnant women who met the eligibility criteria. MEASUREMENTS: The risk and risk ratio of nonlive births, live births with congenital malformations, and congenital malformations among live births were estimated using standardization to adjust for covariates. RESULTS: A total of 850 women were in the insulin monotherapy group and 1557 in the insulin plus metformin group. The estimated risk for nonlive birth was 32.7% under insulin monotherapy (reference) and 34.3% under insulin plus metformin (risk ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.01 to 1.04]). The estimated risk for live birth with congenital malformations was 8.0% (CI, 5.7% to 10.2%) under insulin monotherapy and 5.7% (CI, 4.5% to 7.3%) under insulin plus metformin (risk ratio, 0.72 [CI, 0.51 to 1.09]). LIMITATION: Possible residual confounding by glycemic control and body mass index. CONCLUSION: Compared with switching to insulin monotherapy, continuing metformin and adding insulin in early pregnancy resulted in little to no increased risk for nonlive birth among women receiving metformin before pregnancy. Under conventional statistical criteria, anything between a 49% decrease and a 9% increase in risk for congenital malformations was highly compatible with our data. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

Effectiveness and safety of empagliflozin: final results from the EMPRISE study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Limited evidence exists on the comparative safety and effectiveness of empagliflozin against alternative glucose-lowering medications in individuals with type 2 diabetes with the broad spectrum of cardiovascular risk. The EMPagliflozin compaRative effectIveness and SafEty (EMPRISE) cohort study was designed to monitor the safety and effectiveness of empagliflozin periodically for a period of 5 years with data collection from electronic healthcare databases. METHODS: We identified individuals ≥18 years old with type 2 diabetes who initiated empagliflozin or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) from 2014 to 2019 using US Medicare and commercial claims databases. After 1:1 propensity score matching using 143 baseline characteristics, we identified four a priori-defined effectiveness outcomes: (1) myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke; (2) hospitalisation for heart failure (HHF); (3) major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE); and (4) cardiovascular mortality or HHF. Safety outcomes included lower-limb amputations, non-vertebral fractures, diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), acute kidney injury (AKI), severe hypoglycaemia, retinopathy progression, and short-term kidney and bladder cancers. We estimated HRs and rate differences (RDs) per 1000 person-years, overall and stratified by age, sex, baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and heart failure. RESULTS: We identified 115,116 matched pairs. Compared with DPP-4i, empagliflozin was associated with lower risks of MI/stroke (HR 0.88 [95% CI 0.81, 0.96]; RD -2.08 [95% CI (-3.26, -0.90]), HHF (HR 0.50 [0.44, 0.56]; RD -5.35 [-6.22, -4.49]), MACE (HR 0.73 [0.62, 0.86]; RD -6.37 [-8.98, -3.77]) and cardiovascular mortality/HHF (HR 0.57 [0.47, 0.69]; RD -10.36 [-12.63, -8.12]). Absolute benefits were larger in older individuals and in those with ASCVD/heart failure. Empagliflozin was associated with an increased risk of DKA (HR 1.78 [1.44, 2.19]; RD 1.59 [1.08, 2.09]); decreased risks of AKI (HR 0.62 [0.54, 0.72]; RD -2.39 [-3.08, -1.71]), hypoglycaemia (HR 0.75 [0.67, 0.84]; RD -2.46 [-3.32, -1.60]) and retinopathy progression (HR 0.78 [0.63, 0.96)]; RD -9.49 [-16.97, -2.10]); and similar risks of other safety events. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Empagliflozin relative to DPP-4i was associated with risk reductions of MI or stroke, HHF, MACE and the composite of cardiovascular mortality or HHF. Absolute risk reductions were larger in older individuals and in those who had history of ASCVD or heart failure. Regarding the safety outcomes, empagliflozin was associated with an increased risk of DKA and lower risks of AKI, hypoglycaemia and progression to proliferative retinopathy, with no difference in the short-term risks of lower-extremity amputation, non-vertebral fractures, kidney and renal pelvis cancer, and bladder cancer.

A population-based cohort defined risk of hyperkalemia after initiating SGLT-2 inhibitors, GLP1 receptor agonists or DPP-4 inhibitors to patients with chronic kidney disease and type 2 diabetes.

Hyperkalemia is a common adverse event in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and type 2 diabetes and limits the use of guideline-recommended therapies such as renin-angiotensin system inhibitors. Here, we evaluated the comparative effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) on the risk of hyperkalemia. We conducted a population-based active-comparator, new-user cohort study using claims data from Medicare and two large United States commercial insurance databases (April 2013-April 2022). People with CKD stages 3-4 and type 2 diabetes who newly initiated SGLT-2i vs. DPP-4i (141671 patients), GLP-1RA vs. DPP-4i (159545 patients) and SGLT-2i vs. GLP-1RA (93033 patients) were included. The primary outcome was hyperkalemia diagnosed in inpatient or outpatient settings. Secondary outcomes included hyperkalemia diagnosed in inpatient or emergency department setting, and serum potassium levels of 5.5 mmol/L or more. Pooled hazard ratios and rate differences were estimated after propensity score matching to adjust for over 140 potential confounders. Initiation of SGLT-2i was associated with a lower risk of hyperkalemia compared with DPP-4i (hazard ratio 0.74; 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.80) and contrasted to GLP-1RA (0.92; 0.86-0.99). Compared with DPP-4i, GLP-1RA were also associated with a lower risk of hyperkalemia (0.80; 0.75-0.86). Corresponding absolute rate differences/1000 person-years were -24.8 (95% confidence interval -31.8 to -17.7), -5.0 (-10.9 to 0.8), and -17.7 (-23.4 to -12.1), respectively. Similar findings were observed for the secondary outcomes, among subgroups, and across single agents within the SGLT-2i and GLP-1RA classes. Thus, SGLT-2i and GLP-1RA are associated with a lower risk of hyperkalemia than DPP-4i in patients with CKD and type 2 diabetes, further supporting the use of these drugs in this population.

Cardiorenal effectiveness of empagliflozin vs. glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: final-year results from the EMPRISE study.

BACKGROUND: No randomized clinical trials have directly compared the cardiorenal effectiveness of empagliflozin and GLP-1RA agents with demonstrated cardioprotective effects in patients with a broad spectrum of cardiovascular risk. We reported the final-year results of the EMPRISE study, a monitoring program designed to evaluate the cardiorenal effectiveness of empagliflozin across broad patient subgroups. METHODS: We identified patients ≥ 18 years old with type 2 diabetes who initiated empagliflozin or GLP-1RA from 2014 to 2019 using US Medicare and commercial claims databases. After 1:1 propensity score matching using 143 baseline characteristics, we evaluated risks of outcomes including myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke, hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE - MI, stroke, or cardiovascular mortality), a composite of HHF or cardiovascular mortality, and progression to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) (in patients with chronic kidney disease stages 3-4). We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and rate differences (RD) per 1,000 person-years, overall and within subgroups of age, sex, baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and heart failure (HF). RESULTS: We identified 141,541 matched pairs. Compared with GLP-1RA, empagliflozin was associated with similar risks of MI or stroke [HR: 0.99 (0.92, 1.07); RD: -0.23 (-1.25, 0.79)], and lower risks of HHF [HR: 0.50 (0.44, 0.56); RD: -2.28 (-2.98, -1.59)], MACE [HR: 0.90 (0.82, 0.99); RD: -2.54 (-4.76, -0.32)], cardiovascular mortality or HHF [HR: 0.77 (0.69, 0.86); RD: -4.11 (-5.95, -2.29)], and ESKD [0.75 (0.60, 0.94); RD: -6.77 (-11.97, -1.61)]. Absolute risk reductions were larger in older patients and in those with baseline ASCVD/HF. They did not differ by sex. CONCLUSIONS: The cardiovascular benefits of empagliflozin vs. cardioprotective GLP-1RA agents were larger in older patients and in patients with history of ASCVD or HF, while they did not differ by sex. In patients with advanced CKD, empagliflozin was associated with risk reductions of progression to ESKD.

Empagliflozin and Risk of Incident Gout: Analysis from the EMPagliflozin Comparative Effectiveness and SafEty (EMPRISE) Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Hyperuricemia is frequently observed in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and is associated with increased risk of gout and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Empagliflozin lowers serum urate levels by enhancing its urinary excretion. OBJECTIVE: To compare initiators of empagliflozin vs dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP4i) and initiators of empagliflozin vs glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) with respect to the risk of incident gout events. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Using three claims-based datasets from 08/2014 to 09/2019, we generated two cohorts (cohort 1: empagliflozin vs DPP4i; cohort 2: empagliflozin vs GLP-1RA) of adult patients with T2D and without prior history of gout or gout-specific medication dispensing separately in each dataset. To assess the risk of incident gout, we estimated hazard ratios (HR) and rate differences (RD) per 1000 person-years (PY) with their 95% confidence intervals (CI) before and after 1:1 propensity score (PS) matching adjusting for 141 baseline covariates. KEY RESULTS: We identified 102,262 pairs of 1:1 propensity score-matched adults in cohort 1 and 131,216 pairs in cohort 2. Over a mean follow-up period of 8 months on treatment, the risk of gout was lower in patients initiating empagliflozin compared to DPP4i (HR = 0.69: 95% CI (0.60-0.79); RD = - 2.27: 95% CI (- 3.08, 1.46)) or GLP-1RA (HR = 0.83: 95% CI (0.73-0.94); RD = - 0.99: 95% CI (- 1.66, - 0.32)). Results were consistent across subgroups (sex, age, body mass index, chronic kidney disease, heart failure, cardiovascular disease, and concurrent diuretic use) and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults with T2D, the initiation of empagliflozin vs a DPP4i or GLP-1RA was associated with lower risk of incident gout, complementing results from a post hoc analysis of the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial and previously published observational research focusing on the sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor class in more narrowly defined study populations.

Bariatric surgery and all-cause mortality: A methodological review of studies using a non-surgical comparator.

AIM: Non-randomized studies on bariatric surgery have reported large reductions in mortality within 6-12 months after surgery compared with non-surgical patients. It is unclear whether these findings are the result of bias. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We searched PubMed to identify all non-randomized studies investigating the effect of bariatric surgery on all-cause mortality compared with non-surgical patients. We assessed these studies for potential confounding and time-related biases. We conducted bias analyses to quantify the effect of these biases. RESULTS: We identified 21 cohort studies that met our inclusion criteria. Among those, 11 were affected by immortal time bias resulting from the misclassification or exclusion of relevant follow-up time. Five studies were subject to potential confounding bias because of a lack of adjustment for body mass index (BMI). All studies used an inadequate comparator group that lacked indications for bariatric surgery. Bias analyses to correct for potential confounding from BMI shifted the effect estimates towards the null [reported hazard ratio (HR): 0.78 vs. bias-adjusted HR: 0.92]. Bias analyses to correct for the presence of immortal time also shifted the effect estimates towards the null (adjustment for 2-year wait time: reported HR: 0.57 vs. bias-adjusted HR: 0.81). CONCLUSION: Several important sources of bias were identified in non-randomized studies of the effectiveness of bariatric surgery versus non-surgical comparators on mortality. Future studies should ensure that confounding by BMI is accounted for, considering the choice of the comparator group, and that the design or analysis avoids immortal time bias from the misclassification or exclusion.

Stratified analysis in comparative effectiveness studies that emulate randomized trials.

PURPOSE: For observational cohort studies that employ matching by propensity scores (PS), preliminary stratification by consequential predictors of outcome better emulates stratified randomization and potentially reduces variance and bias through relaxed dependence on modeling assumptions. We assessed the impact of pre-stratification in two real-life examples. For both, prior evidence from placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials (RCTs) suggested small or no risk reduction, but observational analysis suggested protection, presumably the result of confounding bias. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The study populations consisted of Medicare beneficiaries (2014-18) with type 2 diabetes initiating either (i) empagliflozin versus dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) or (ii) empagliflozin versus glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA). The outcome was myocardial infarction or stroke. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and rate differences (RD) after controlling for 143 pre-exposure covariates via 1:1 PS matching after (1) PS estimation in the total cohort (total-cohort PS-matching) and (2) PS estimation separately by baseline cardiovascular disease (stratified PS matching). RESULTS: Stratified PS matching resulted in HRs that exceeded those from total-cohort PS-matching by 13% and 9%, respectively, for the comparisons of empagliflozin to DPP-4i and GLP-1RA. Against both comparators, HRs and RDs after stratified PS matching were closer to the null, with slightly higher variances (2%-3%) than those after total-cohort PS matching. CONCLUSION: Stratified PS matching produced effect estimates closer to the expected trial findings than total-cohort PS matching. The price paid in increased variance was minimal.

Successful implementation of a stakeholder engagement program for pharmacoepidemiologic research.

PURPOSE: Rigorously conducted pharmacoepidemiologic research requires methodologically complex study designs and analysis yet evaluates problems of high importance to patients and clinicians. Despite this, participation in and mechanisms for stakeholder engagement in pharmacoepidemiologic research are not well-described. Here, we describe our approach and lessons learned from engaging stakeholders, of varying familiarity with research methods, in a rigorous multi-year pharmacoepidemiologic research program evaluating the comparative effectiveness of diabetes medications. METHODS: We recruited 5 patient and 4 clinician stakeholders; each was compensated for their time. Stakeholders received initial formal training in observational research and pharmacoepidemiologic methods sufficient to enable contribution to the research project. After onboarding, stakeholder engagement meetings were held virtually, in the evening, 2-3 times annually. Each was approximately 90 min and focused on 1-2 specific questions about the project, with preparatory materials sent in advance. RESULTS: Stakeholder meeting attendance was high (89%-100%), and all stakeholders engaged with the research project, both during and between meetings. Stakeholders reported positive experiences with meetings, satisfaction, and interest in the research project and its findings, and dedication to the success of the project's goals. They affirmed the value of receiving materials to review in advance and the effectiveness of a virtual platform. Their contributions included prioritizing and suggesting research questions, optimizing written evidence briefs for a lay audience, and guidance on broader topics such as research audience and methods of dissemination. CONCLUSIONS: Stakeholder engagement in pharmacoepidemiologic research using complex study designs and analysis is feasible, acceptable, and positively impacts the research project.

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors vs. sitagliptin in heart failure and type 2 diabetes: an observational cohort study.

AIMS: The effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) in patients with heart failure (HF) in routine clinical practice is not extensively studied. This study aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of SGLT2i vs. sitagliptin in older adults with HF and type 2 diabetes and to investigate whether there were any differences between agents within the SGLT2i class or for reduced and preserved ejection fraction. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Medicare claims data (April 2013 to December 2019), 16 253 SGLT2i initiators vs. 43 352 initiators of sitagliptin aged ≥65 years with type 2 diabetes and HF were included. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality, hospitalization for HF or urgent visit requiring intravenous diuretics; secondary outcomes included its individual components. Propensity score fine stratification weighted Cox regression was used to adjust for 100 pre-exposure characteristics. Mean age was 74 years; 49.8% were women. Initiation of SGLT2i vs. sitagliptin was associated with a lower risk of the primary composite outcome [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.72; 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.77]. The adjusted HRs were 0.70 (0.63-0.78) for all-cause mortality, 0.64 (0.58-0.70) for hospitalization for HF, and 0.77 (0.69-0.86) for urgent visit requiring intravenous diuretics. Similar associations with the primary composite outcome were observed for all three agents within the SGLT2i class, for reduced and preserved ejection fraction, and subgroups based on demographics, comorbidities, and other HF treatments. Bias-calibrated HRs for the primary endpoint using negative and positive control outcomes ranged between 0.81 and 0.89, suggesting that the observed benefit could not be fully explained by residual confounding. CONCLUSION: In routine US clinical practice, SGLT2i demonstrated robust clinical effectiveness in older adults with HF and type 2 diabetes compared with sitagliptin, with no evidence of heterogeneity across the SGLT2i class or across ejection fraction.

Safety of SGLT2i with regard to bone and mineral metabolism in patients with CKD.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) represent a relatively new class of oral glucose-lowering agents that reduce adverse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes among individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Emerging evidence suggests that SGLT2i may also affect bone and mineral metabolism. This review analyzes recent evidence on the safety of SGLT2i with respect to bone and mineral metabolism in people with CKD, and discusses potential underlying mechanisms and clinical implications. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent studies have documented the beneficial effects of SGLT2i on cardiovascular and renal outcomes among individuals with CKD. SGLT2i may alter renal tubular phosphate reabsorption and are associated with increased serum concentrations of phosphate, fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23), parathyroid hormone (PTH), decreased 1,25-hydroxyvitamin D levels, as well as increased bone turnover. Clinical trials have not demonstrated an increased risk of bone fracture associated with SGLT2i use among patients with CKD with or without diabetes mellitus. SUMMARY: Although SGLT2i are associated with abnormalities of bone and mineral metabolism, they have not been linked to a higher risk of fracture among patients with CKD. More research is needed on the association between SGLT2i and fracture risk in this population.

Contemporary trends in the utilization of second-line pharmacological therapies for type 2 diabetes in the United States and the United Kingdom.

AIM: To examine trends of second-line glucose-lowering therapies among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating first-line metformin in the United States and the United Kingdom, overall and by subgroups of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and calendar time. METHODS: Using the US Optum Clinformatics and the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we identified adults with T2D who initiated first-line metformin or sulphonylurea monotherapy, separately, from 2013 to 2019. Within both cohorts, we identified patterns of second-line medications through June 2021. We stratified patterns by CVD and calendar time to investigate the impact of rapidly evolving treatment guidelines. RESULTS: We identified 148 511 and 169 316 patients initiating treatment with metformin monotherapy in the United States and the United Kingdom, respectively. Throughout the study period, sulphonylureas and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors were the most frequently initiated second-line medications in the United States (43.4% and 18.2%, respectively) and the United Kingdom (42.5% and 35.8%, respectively). After 2018, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists were more commonly used as second-line agents in the United States and the United Kingdom, although these agents were not preferentially prescribed among patients with CVD. Initiation of first-line sulphonylureas was much less common, and most sulphonylurea initiators had metformin added as the second-line agent. CONCLUSIONS: This international cohort study shows that sulphonylureas remain the most common second-line medications prescribed following metformin in both the United States and the United Kingdom. Despite recommendations, the use of newer glucose-lowering therapies with cardiovascular benefits remains low.

Achieving comparability in glycemic control between antidiabetic treatment strategies in pregnancy when using real world data.

PURPOSE: Healthcare utilization databases often lack information on glycemic control, a key confounder when studying the safety of antidiabetic treatments, since patients with worse control are channeled to second-line agents, in particular insulin, versus first-line agents such as metformin. We evaluated whether adjustment for measured characteristics attains balance in glycemic control when comparing antidiabetic treatment strategies in pregnant women with pregestational type 2 diabetes (T2DM). METHODS: In a US insurance claims database, we identified 3360 women with T2DM pregnant between 2004 and 2015, of whom a subset of 996 had data on hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c ) levels. We selected insulin only as the comparator group and used propensity score (PS)-matching on comorbidities and proxies of diabetes severity, but not on HbA1c , to adjust for confounding. We used standardized differences (st.diff) to assess balance in claims-based covariates and mean HbA1c (% ± SD) in the subset. RESULTS: There were imbalances in claims-based covariates before PS-matching, with smaller differences when both treatment strategies included insulin. After PS-matching, balance was achieved in most claims-based covariates (st.diff <0.1). Mean HbA1c was similar before and after PS-matching when both treatments included insulin (e.g., 7.1 ± 1.5 vs. 7.7 ± 1.8 and 7.1 ± 1.5 vs. 7.5 ± 1.7, respectively, for metformin + insulin vs. insulin only). Differences in mean HbA1c remained after PS-matching when non-insulin treatments were compared to treatments including insulin (e.g., 6.3 ± 1.1 vs. 7.6 ± 1.7 for metformin only vs. insulin only). CONCLUSIONS: Balance in both claims-based characteristics and glycemic control was attained after restricting the population to women with T2DM and comparing treatment strategies indicated for patients with similar diabetes severity. When comparing treatment strategies with versus without insulin, differences in glycemic control persisted after PS-matching even when balance was attained for other measured characteristics.

Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients Initiating First-Line Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes With Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors Versus Metformin : A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on the risk for cardiovascular events associated with use of first-line sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) compared with metformin is limited. OBJECTIVE: To assess cardiovascular outcomes among adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) who initiated first-line treatment with SGLT-2i versus metformin. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: Claims data from 2 large U.S. commercial and Medicare databases (April 2013 to March 2020). PARTICIPANTS: Patients with T2D aged 18 years and older (>65 years in Medicare) initiating treatment with SGLT-2i or metformin during April 2013 to March 2020, without any use of antidiabetic medications before cohort entry, were identified. After 1:2 propensity score matching in each database, pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were reported. INTERVENTION: First-line SGLT-2i (canagliflozin, empagliflozin, or dapagliflozin) or metformin. MEASUREMENTS: Primary outcomes were a composite of hospitalization for myocardial infarction (MI), hospitalization for ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke or all-cause mortality (MI/stroke/mortality), and a composite of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) or all-cause mortality (HHF/mortality). Safety outcomes including genital infections were assessed. RESULTS: Among 8613 first-line SGLT-2i initiators matched to 17 226 metformin initiators, SGLT-2i initiators had a similar risk for MI/stroke/mortality (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.19) and a lower risk for HHF/mortality (HR, 0.80; CI, 0.66 to 0.97) during a mean follow-up of 12 months. Initiators receiving SGLT-2i showed a lower risk for HHF (HR, 0.78; CI, 0.63 to 0.97), a numerically lower risk for MI (HR, 0.70; CI, 0.48 to 1.00), and similar risk for stroke, mortality, and MI/stroke/HHF/mortality compared with metformin. Initiators receiving SGLT-2i had a higher risk for genital infections (HR, 2.19; CI, 1.91 to 2.51) and otherwise similar safety as those receiving metformin. LIMITATION: Treatment selection was not randomized. CONCLUSION: As first-line T2D treatment, initiators receiving SGLT-2i showed a similar risk for MI/stroke/mortality, lower risk for HHF/mortality and HHF, and a similar safety profile except for an increased risk for genital infections compared with those receiving metformin. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Brigham and Women's Hospital and Harvard Medical School.

Emulation of Randomized Clinical Trials With Nonrandomized Database Analyses: Results of 32 Clinical Trials.

Importance: Nonrandomized studies using insurance claims databases can be analyzed to produce real-world evidence on the effectiveness of medical products. Given the lack of baseline randomization and measurement issues, concerns exist about whether such studies produce unbiased treatment effect estimates. Objective: To emulate the design of 30 completed and 2 ongoing randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of medications with database studies using observational analogues of the RCT design parameters (population, intervention, comparator, outcome, time [PICOT]) and to quantify agreement in RCT-database study pairs. Design, Setting, and Participants: New-user cohort studies with propensity score matching using 3 US claims databases (Optum Clinformatics, MarketScan, and Medicare). Inclusion-exclusion criteria for each database study were prespecified to emulate the corresponding RCT. RCTs were explicitly selected based on feasibility, including power, key confounders, and end points more likely to be emulated with real-world data. All 32 protocols were registered on ClinicalTrials.gov before conducting analyses. Emulations were conducted from 2017 through 2022. Exposures: Therapies for multiple clinical conditions were included. Main Outcomes and Measures: Database study emulations focused on the primary outcome of the corresponding RCT. Findings of database studies were compared with RCTs using predefined metrics, including Pearson correlation coefficients and binary metrics based on statistical significance agreement, estimate agreement, and standardized difference. Results: In these highly selected RCTs, the overall observed agreement between the RCT and the database emulation results was a Pearson correlation of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.64-0.91), with 75% meeting statistical significance, 66% estimate agreement, and 75% standardized difference agreement. In a post hoc analysis limited to 16 RCTs with closer emulation of trial design and measurements, concordance was higher (Pearson r, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.79-0.97; 94% meeting statistical significance, 88% estimate agreement, 88% standardized difference agreement). Weaker concordance occurred among 16 RCTs for which close emulation of certain design elements that define the research question (PICOT) with data from insurance claims was not possible (Pearson r, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.00-0.83; 56% meeting statistical significance, 50% estimate agreement, 69% standardized difference agreement). Conclusions and Relevance: Real-world evidence studies can reach similar conclusions as RCTs when design and measurements can be closely emulated, but this may be difficult to achieve. Concordance in results varied depending on the agreement metric. Emulation differences, chance, and residual confounding can contribute to divergence in results and are difficult to disentangle.

Risk of Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes After Addition of SGLT2 Inhibitors Versus Sulfonylureas to Baseline GLP-1RA Therapy.

BACKGROUND: Several glucagon-like peptide receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have demonstrated cardiovascular benefit in type 2 diabetes in large randomized controlled trials in patients with established cardiovascular disease or multiple risk factors. However, few trial participants were on both agents, and it remains unknown whether the addition of SGLT2i to GLP-1RA therapy has further cardiovascular benefits. METHODS: Patients adding either SGLT2i or sulfonylureas to baseline GLP-1RA were identified within 3 US claims datasets (2013-2018) and were 1:1 propensity score-matched, adjusting for >95 baseline covariates. The primary outcomes were a composite cardiovascular end point (comprising myocardial infarction, stroke, and all-cause mortality) and heart failure hospitalization. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated in each dataset and pooled through fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 12 584 propensity score-matched pairs (mean [SD] age, 58.3 [10.9] years; 48.2% male) across the 3 datasets, there were 107 composite cardiovascular end point events (incidence rate per 1000 person-years, 9.9 [95% CI, 8.1-11.9]) among SGLT2i initiators compared with 129 events (incidence rate, 13.0 [95% CI, 10.9-15.3]) among sulfonylurea initiators, corresponding to an adjusted pooled HR of 0.76 (95% CI, 0.59-0.98); this decrease in composite cardiovascular end point was driven by numeric decreases in the risk of myocardial infarction (HR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.51-1.003]) and all-cause mortality (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.40-1.14]) but not stroke (HR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.62-1.79]). For the outcome of heart failure hospitalization, there were 141 events (incidence rate, 13.0 [95% CI, 11.0-15.2]) among SGLT2i initiators versus 206 events (incidence rate, 20.8 [95% CI, 18.1-23.8]) among sulfonylurea initiators, corresponding to an adjusted pooled HR of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.50-0.82). CONCLUSIONS: Risk of residual confounding cannot be fully excluded. Individual therapeutic agents within each class may have different magnitudes of effect. In this large real-world cohort of patients with diabetes already on GLP-1RA, addition of SGLT2i conferred greater cardiovascular benefit compared with addition of sulfonylurea. The magnitude of the cardiovascular risk reduction was comparable with the benefit seen in cardiovascular outcome trials of SGLT2i versus placebo, where baseline GLP-1RA use was minimal.

Emulating Randomized Clinical Trials With Nonrandomized Real-World Evidence Studies: First Results From the RCT DUPLICATE Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Regulators are evaluating the use of noninterventional real-world evidence (RWE) studies to assess the effectiveness of medical products. The RCT DUPLICATE initiative (Randomized, Controlled Trials Duplicated Using Prospective Longitudinal Insurance Claims: Applying Techniques of Epidemiology) uses a structured process to design RWE studies emulating randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) and compare results. We report findings of the first 10 trial emulations, evaluating cardiovascular outcomes of antidiabetic or antiplatelet medications. METHODS: We selected 3 active-controlled and 7 placebo-controlled RCTs for replication. Using patient-level claims data from US commercial and Medicare payers, we implemented inclusion and exclusion criteria, selected primary end points, and comparator populations to emulate those of each corresponding RCT. Within the trial-mimicking populations, we conducted propensity score matching to control for >120 preexposure confounders. All study measures were prospectively defined and protocols registered before hazard ratios and 95% CIs were computed. Success criteria for the primary analysis were prespecified for each replication. RESULTS: Despite attempts to emulate RCT design as closely as possible, differences between the RCT and corresponding RWE study populations remained. The regulatory conclusions were equivalent in 6 of 10. The RWE emulations achieved a hazard ratio estimate that was within the 95% CI from the corresponding RCT in 8 of 10 studies. In 9 of 10, either the regulatory or estimate agreement success criteria were fulfilled. The largest differences in effect estimates were found for RCTs where second-generation sulfonylureas were used as a proxy for placebo regarding cardiovascular effects. Nine of 10 replications had a standardized difference between effect estimates of <2, which suggests differences within expected random variation. CONCLUSIONS: Agreement between RCT and RWE findings varies depending on which agreement metric is used. Interim findings indicate that selection of active comparator therapies with similar indications and use patterns enhances the validity of RWE. Even in the context of active comparators, concordance between RCT and RWE findings is not guaranteed, partially because trials are not emulated exactly. More trial emulations are needed to understand how often and in what contexts RWE findings match RCTs. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifiers: NCT03936049, NCT04215523, NCT04215536, NCT03936010, NCT03936036, NCT03936062, NCT03936023, NCT03648424, NCT04237935, NCT04237922.

Glucagon-Like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonists and Risk of Anaphylactic Reaction Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Multisite Population-Based Cohort Study.

Case reports and a pharmacovigilance analysis have linked glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) with anaphylactic reactions, but real-world evidence for this possible association is lacking. Using databases from the United Kingdom (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and the United States (Medicare, Optum (Optum, Inc., Eden Prairie, Minnesota), and IBM MarketScan (IBM, Armonk, New York)), we employed a new-user, active comparator study design wherein initiators of GLP-1 RAs were compared with 2 different active comparator groups (initiators of dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitors and initiators of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors) between 2007 and 2019. Propensity score fine stratification weighted Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for an anaphylactic reaction. Database-specific HRs were pooled using random-effects models. Compared with the use of DPP-4 inhibitors (n = 1,641,520), use of GLP-1 RAs (n = 324,098) generated a modest increase in the HR for anaphylactic reaction, with a wide 95% CI (36.9 per 100,000 person-years vs. 32.1 per 100,000 person-years, respectively; HR = 1.15, 95% CI: 0.94, 1.42). Compared with SGLT-2 inhibitors (n = 366,067), GLP-1 RAs (n = 259,929) were associated with a 38% increased risk of anaphylactic reaction (40.7 per 100,000 person-years vs. 29.4 per 100,000 person-years, respectively; HR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.87). In this large, multisite population-based cohort study, GLP-1 RAs were associated with a modestly increased risk of anaphylactic reaction when compared with DPP-4 inhibitors and SGLT-2 inhibitors.

Glucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonists and Hepatic Decompensation Events in Patients With Cirrhosis and Diabetes.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The study sought to compare the effectiveness of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, sulfonylureas, or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitors in reducing decompensation events, among patients with cirrhosis and type 2 diabetes. METHODS: This population-based, retrospective cohort study included patients with type 2 diabetes and cirrhosis, in a commercial healthcare database (IBM MarketScan). We constructed 3 pairwise, 1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched cohorts of adults initiating GLP-1RAs or a comparator medication (ie, DPP-4 inhibitors [2006-2020], sulfonylurea [2005-2020], or SGLT-2 inhibitors [2013-2020]). Patients were followed in an as-treated approach for decompensation events (ie, ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, or esophageal variceal hemorrhage). Within each PS-matched cohort, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), controlling for >90 baseline characteristics. RESULTS: Over 132 days of median follow-up (interquartile range, 73-290 days), PS-matched rates of any decompensation were significantly lower among GLP-1RA initiators, versus DPP-4 inhibitor initiators (105.2 vs 144.0 per 1000 person-years [PY]; HR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.53-0.88; n = 1431 pairs), and versus sulfonylureas (97.3 vs 144.0 per 1000 PY; HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.48-0.84; n = 1246 pairs). Similar, inverse associations were found for individual decompensation events, including ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, or hepatorenal syndrome (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.45-0.97; and HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.94, respectively); esophageal variceal hemorrhage (HR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.41-0.92; and HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.37-0.92, respectively); and hepatic encephalopathy (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.55-1.06; and HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.39-0.92, respectively). Results persisted in subgroups of patients with and without previously decompensated cirrhosis. In contrast, decompensation rates were similar when GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2 inhibitors were directly compared (103.5 vs 112.8 per 1000 PY; HR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.62-1.28). CONCLUSIONS: Among cirrhotic patients with type 2 diabetes, we find high rates of decompensation, consistent with previous reports; these rates were substantially lower among GLP-1RA initiators compared with DPP-4 inhibitors or sulfonylureas.

Comparative effectiveness of Empagliflozin in reducing the burden of recurrent cardiovascular hospitalizations among older adults with diabetes in routine clinical care.

BACKGROUND: The effect of sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) on the total (first and recurrent) burden of cardiovascular (CV) hospitalizations, including hospitalization for heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke, is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of empagliflozin, an SGLT2i, on total CV hospitalizations among older adults with T2D. METHODS: Using data from Medicare fee-for-service (08/2014-09/2017), we identified 1:1 propensity score-matched cohorts of patients with T2D initiating empagliflozin versus sitagliptin or empagliflozin versus glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA), balancing >140 baseline covariates. We compared the risk of first and recurrent hospitalizations with any CV condition as the primary discharge diagnosis (ICD-9: 390-459; ICD-10: I00-I99), hospitalizations for heart failure (HHF), and myocardial infarctions (MI) or stroke. We estimated treatment effects based on the Ghosh-Lin semiparametric model for recurrent events as primary and joint frailty model as secondary analysis. RESULTS: We included 11,429 matched-pairs of empagliflozin and sitagliptin initiators and 17,502 matched-pairs of empagliflozin and GLP1-RA initiators with an average age of 72 years. Empagliflozin was associated with a reduced risk of total CV hospitalizations (0.80 [0.69-0.93] vs sitagliptin; 0.88 [0.77-1.00] vs GLP-1RA) and total HHF (0.70 [0.51-0.98] vs sitagliptin; 0.76 [0.56-1.03] vs GLP1-RA) over a mean follow up of 6.3 months. No differences between treatments were observed for MI or stroke. Results were consistent for joint frailty models. CONCLUSION: Empagliflozin, compared to sitagliptin or to a lesser extent GLP1-RA, was associated with a reduction in the burden of total CV hospitalizations and HHF in older patients with T2D.

SGLT2 Inhibitors and the Risk of Acute Kidney Injury in Older Adults With Type 2 Diabetes.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have been found to have many benefits for patients with type 2 diabetes. However, whether SGLT2 inhibitors increase the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) remains unknown. We examined the association of AKI hospitalization with prior initiation of an SGLT2 inhibitor compared with initiation of a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitor or a glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) among older adults with type 2 diabetes in routine practice. STUDY DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Older adults aged at least 66 years with type 2 diabetes enrolled in Medicare fee-for-service and who were new users of SGLT2 inhibitor, DPP-4 inhibitor, or GLP-1RA agents in the interval from March 2013 to December 2017. EXPOSURES: New use of an SGLT2 inhibitor versus new use of a DPP-4 inhibitor or GLP-1RA. OUTCOME: The primary outcome was hospitalization for AKI, defined as a discharge diagnosis of AKI in the primary or secondary position. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: New users of SGLT2 inhibitors were matched at a 1:1 ratio to new users of DPP-4 inhibitors or GLP-1RAs using propensity scores in 2 pairwise comparisons. Cox proportional hazards regression models generated hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs in propensity score-matched groups. RESULTS: Totals of 68,130 and 71,477 new users of SGLT2 inhibitors were matched to new users of DPP-4 inhibitors or GLP-1RAs, respectively. Overall, the mean age of study participants was 72 years. The risk of AKI was lower in the SGLT2 inhibitor group than in the DPP-4 inhibitor group (HR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.65-0.76]) or the GLP-1RA group (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.75-0.87]). LIMITATIONS: Residual confounding and lack of laboratory data. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults with type 2 diabetes, initiation of an SGLT2 inhibitor was associated with a reduced risk of AKI compared with initiation of a DPP-4 inhibitor or a GLP-1RA.