RESUMO
BACKGROUNDS & AIMS: In Indonesia 1.9 million people are chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV), but a national strategic plan for elimination has not yet been developed, despite the availability of low-cost treatments which could save many lives. We used epidemiological and cost modelling to estimate targets and resource requirements of a national elimination program and explore the potential impact and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: To model the HCV epidemic, we used a dynamic model, parameterised with Indonesia-specific data, accounting for disease progression, injecting drug use and demographics. Future scale-up scenarios were designed for 2018-2050 to capture possible policy choices. Costs of an initial 5-year national strategy and of long-term elimination were estimated for the most feasible scenario, as agreed with government and local partners. Cost savings from reduced drug and diagnostics prices were also estimated. The cost-effectiveness of baseline predictions and those with drug price reductions were compared to the no treatment scenario. RESULTS: Elimination by 2045, considered the most feasible path to scale-up, would prevent 739 000 new infections and avert 158 000 HCV-related deaths. The costs would be $5.6 billion (USD) using baseline prices but could fall to $2.7 billion if price reductions for HCV drugs and diagnostics are secured. With these price reductions, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for a 2045 elimination program would be cost-effective at $300 (USD) per year of life saved vs the no treatment scenario. CONCLUSIONS: This study has underpinned advocacy efforts to secure Indonesian government commitment to HCV elimination, and provides further inputs for HCV strategic planning efforts.
Assuntos
Hepacivirus , Hepatite C , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Análise Custo-Benefício , Hepatite C/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Humanos , Indonésia/epidemiologia , Planejamento EstratégicoRESUMO
Over the last decade, Hepatitis C virus has persisted and evolved as a domestic and global health challenge for adults and children. The challenges involve both increased cases in the United States and cost of treatment both in the US and globally.
Assuntos
Hepacivirus , Hepatite C , Adulto , Criança , Hepatite C/tratamento farmacológico , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
In 2018, WHO issued guidelines for the diagnosis, prevention, and management of HIV-related cryptococcal disease. Two strategies are recommended to reduce the high mortality associated with HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs): optimised combination therapies for confirmed meningitis cases and cryptococcal antigen screening programmes for ambulatory people living with HIV who access care. WHO's preferred therapy for the treatment of HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis in LMICs is 1 week of amphotericin B plus flucytosine, and the alternative therapy is 2 weeks of fluconazole plus flucytosine. In the ACTA trial, 1-week (short course) amphotericin B plus flucytosine resulted in a 10-week mortality of 24% (95% CI -16 to 32) and 2 weeks of fluconazole and flucytosine resulted in a 10-week mortality of 35% (95% CI -29 to 41). However, with widely used fluconazole monotherapy, mortality because of HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis is approximately 70% in many African LMIC settings. Therefore, the potential to transform the management of HIV-related cryptococcal meningitis in resource-limited settings is substantial. Sustainable access to essential medicines, including flucytosine and amphotericin B, in LMICs is paramount and the focus of this Personal View.