A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure.

Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Modelling of stress transfer in root-reinforced soils informed by four-dimensional X-ray computed tomography and digital volume correlation data.

Vegetation enhances soil shearing resistance through water uptake and root reinforcement. Analytical models for soils reinforced with roots rely on input parameters that are difficult to measure, leading to widely varying predictions of behaviour. The opaque heterogeneous nature of rooted soils results in complex soil-root interaction mechanisms that cannot easily be quantified. The authors measured, for the first time, the shear resistance and deformations of fallow, willow-rooted and gorse-rooted soils during direct shear using X-ray computed tomography and digital volume correlation. Both species caused an increase in shear zone thickness, both initially and as shear progressed. Shear zone thickness peaked at up to 35 mm, often close to the thickest roots and towards the centre of the column. Root extension during shear was 10-30% less than the tri-linear root profile assumed in a Waldron-type model, owing to root curvature. Root analogues used to explore the root-soil interface behaviour suggested that root lateral branches play an important role in anchoring the roots. The Waldron-type model was modified to incorporate non-uniform shear zone thickness and growth, and accurately predicted the observed, up to sevenfold, increase in shear resistance of root-reinforced soil.

Characterisation of the recalcitrant organic compounds in leachates formed during the anaerobic biodegradation of waste.

This study investigates the use of UV absorption and fluorescence spectroscopy to assess the early development of recalcitrant organic compounds in leachates formed during the anaerobic biodegradation of municipal solid waste. Biochemical methane potential tests were carried out on fresh waste (FW) and composted waste (CW) over a period of 150 days and leachates produced from the degradation of two wastes were analysed for humic-like (H-L) and fulvic-like (F-L) structures by UV spectroscopy and fluorescence excitation-emission-matrix analyses. During anaerobic biodegradation, the synthesis and utilization of H-L and F-L structures in the leachates over time was indicative of the generation of the recalcitrant organic compounds. The results obtained from UV absorption and fluorescence spectroscopy suggested that CW leachates resulted in a higher concentration and more condensed form of recalcitrant H-L and F-L molecules than FW leachates. These findings demonstrate how fluorescence and UV absorption spectroscopy can be used as an indicator for monitoring the evolution of recalcitrant organic compounds (H-L and F-L substances) in leachates formed at different stages of waste biodegradation.

Experimental study of the intrinsic permeability of municipal solid waste.

Changing patterns of municipal solid waste (MSW) management, for example sorting for recycling and mechanical-biological treatment (MBT), will change the nature of the residual material going to landfill and in particular its intrinsic permeability. This is an important parameter, not least because of its influence on gas and leachate flows and the ramifications for gas and leachate management. This paper reports the results of laboratory permeability tests on specimens of MSW recovered from boreholes drilled in a Chinese landfill, under both liquid and gas flow. The test results are used to assess the intrinsic permeability of the waste, and are compared with corresponding data from raw and MBT municipal solid wastes from developed countries in the context of differences in waste composition, porosity and particle size. For the Chinese waste, the intrinsic permeability decreased with depth, while at a given depth the permeability determined with gas flow was consistently larger than that determined with liquid flow. Intrinsic permeabilities determined in liquid flow showed no clear trend of variation with effective particle diameter d10, but reduced with drainable porosity (the drainable porosity, ne, being a more appropriate and useful measure than the total porosity, n). Conversely, intrinsic permeabilities determined in gas flow showed a clear decrease with decreasing d10, but no consistent variation with porosity. These differences are potentially significant in assessing the impacts and interactions between gas and liquid flows; some reasons for them are suggested.

Installation and performance of horizontal wells for dewatering at municipal solid waste landfills in China.

Vertical wells are conventionally used to lower leachate levels or pressures in municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills. However, they are not always efficient or even effective, and in some circumstances retro-fitted horizontal wells represent a potential alternative. However, horizontal wells can be difficult to install and there is a lack of data on their performance. This paper describes the trial construction and operation of three horizontal wells in a landfill at Tianziling, China. The trial was used to develop an improved well installation technique, and to demonstrate the viability of the approach in a typical Chinese landfill. Three wells, between 50 m and 56 m in length, were successfully installed using an improved casing-protected directional drilling method. Average leachate flow rates of two wells were 10.66 m3/day and 3.93 m3/day, respectively. After 74 days of drainage, the maximum leachate level drawdown around the highest flow well was 2.7 m and its distance of influence was up to 50 m. Building on the experience gained at Tianziling, a wellfield comprising twelve horizontal wells having a total length of 1000 m was installed at Xingfeng landfill. After 157 days of drainage, a total volume of ~24,000 m3 leachate had been discharged and the leachate level had been lowered to near the elevation of the horizontal wells. This paper indicates the effectiveness of horizontal wells in reducing leachate level in landfills containing MSW typical of that generated in China, and gives data on installation and performance that may be useful for the design and operation of such an approach.

Automated processing of railway track deflection signals obtained from velocity and acceleration measurements.

Measurements of low-frequency vibration are increasingly being used to assess the condition and performance of railway tracks. Displacements used to characterise the track movement under train loads are commonly obtained from velocity or acceleration signals. Artefacts from signal processing, which lead to a shift in the datum associated with the at-rest position, as well as variability between successive wheels, mean that interpreting measurements is non-trivial. As a result, deflections are often interpreted by inspection rather than following an algorithmic or statistical process. This can limit the amount of data that can be usefully analysed in practice, militating against widespread or long-term use of track vibration measurements for condition or performance monitoring purposes. This paper shows how the cumulative distribution function of the track deflection can be used to identify the at-rest position and to interpret the typical range of track movement from displacement data. This process can be used to correct the shift in the at-rest position in velocity or acceleration data, to determine the proportion of upward and downward movement and to align data from multiple transducers to a common datum for visualising deflection as a function of distance along the track. The technique provides a means of characterising track displacement automatically, which can be used as a measure of system performance. This enables large volumes of track vibration data to be used for condition monitoring.

Functional relationships for the estimation of van Genuchten parameter values in landfill processes models.

Numerical models of landfill processes need to be able to estimate the capillary pressure and relative permeability of waste as a function of moisture content using analytical equations such as the van Genuchten equations. The paper identifies the range of van Genuchten parameter values for use in models and proposes a formulaic relationship between these parameter values and saturated moisture content. The concept of porous material, its behaviour under unsaturated conditions and Mualem's integral transform equation that estimates relative permeability from capillary pressure are reviewed. The application of the algebraic form of the capillary pressure function proposed by van Genuchten and its application using Mualem's transform to obtain the van Genuchten algebraic functions for relative permeability are discussed. Functional relationships are identified between saturated moisture content and the van Genuchten parameters using a database of results from other sources. These relationships may be used in numerical modelling of unsaturated flow in landfilled waste where the saturated moisture content varies significantly as the result of compression, settlement and degradation. A 2D numerical model simulation of leachate recirculation is used to investigate the sensitivity of the simulation to the introduction of these functional relationships. It is found that the transient liquid and gas flows across the model boundaries appear to be insensitive to whether or not the functions are incorporated into the model algorithm. However it is observed that using the relationships does have some impact on the distribution of the degree of saturation throughout the model and on the transient behaviour of the way in which the recirculation recharges the waste. However it is not thought that this impact would be sufficient to influence the design of a leachate recirculation system.

Behavior of an MBT waste in monotonic triaxial shear tests.

Legislation in some parts of the world now requires municipal solid waste (MSW) to be processed prior to landfilling to reduce its biodegradability and hence its polluting potential through leachate and fugitive emission of greenhouse gases. This pre-processing may be achieved through what is generically termed mechanical-biological-treatment (MBT). One of the major concerns relating to MBT wastes is that the strength of the material may be less than for raw MSW, owing to the removal of sheet, stick and string-like reinforcing elements during processing. Also, the gradual increase in mobilized strength over strains of 30% or so commonly associated with unprocessed municipal solid waste may not occur with treated wastes. This paper describes a series of triaxial tests carried out to investigate the stress-strain-strength characteristics of an MBT waste, using a novel digital image analysis technique for the determination of detailed displacement fields over the whole specimen. New insights gained into the mechanical behavior of MBT waste include the effect of density on the stress-strain response, the initial 1-D compression of lightly consolidated specimens, and the likely reinforcing effect of small sheet like particles remaining in the waste.