Early parathyroid hormone (PTH) level as a predictor of post-surgical hypoparathyroidism.

INTRODUCTION: Post-operative hypocalcemia and postoperative persistent hypoparathyroidism remain the most common complications after thyroidectomy. Many approaches have been developed to prevent them, but actually, a common protocol is not yet individuated. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the results of a prospectively collected database. We dosed PTH preoperatively and 4 h after surgery (PTH_4); calcium was evaluated preoperatively, on the first (I_POD) and on the second postoperative day (II_POD). Hypocalcemia was defined when calcium <8 mg/dl. PTH_4 and I_POD calcium serum levels are identified to predict postoperative hypocalcemia. RESULTS: Three hundred and forty-eight patients were enrolled, 37 patients resulted as hypocalcemic on I_POD and 41 on the II_POD. PTH_4 is related to I_POD (p < 0.001, r = 0.45) and II_POD (p < 0.001, r = 0.44) calcemia. PTH_4-cut-off predicting I_POD hypocalcemia was 10.50 pg/ml (sensitivity: 78.7%, specificity: 72.7%). A PTH_4 value of 11.5 pg/ml is able to predict hypocalcemia during II_POD (sensitivity: 76.5%, specificity: 69.2%). We set up a combined test to predict II_POD hypocalcemia, using PTH_4 and I_POD calcium (sensitivity: 77.8%, specificity: 89.9%). CONCLUSION: This research shows the association between PTH_4 and postoperative hypocalcemia. The PTH_4 cut-off to predict I_POD-hypocalcemia was 10.5 pg/ml. We analyzed the calcemia trend during the postoperative period and we realized a combined test using PTH_4 and I_POD-calcemia. This test improves the accuracy of the previous test. Further studies, in particular multicentric, with a larger sample are necessary to validate the combined model.

A Data-Driven Approach to Refine Predictions of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Outcomes: A Prospective Multicenter Study.

CONTEXT: The risk stratification of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is crucial in clinical decision making. The most widely accepted method to assess risk of recurrent/persistent disease is described in the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines. However, recent research has focused on the inclusion of novel features or questioned the relevance of currently included features. OBJECTIVE: To develop a comprehensive data-driven model to predict persistent/recurrent disease that can capture all available features and determine the weight of predictors. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, using the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory (ITCO) database (NCT04031339), we selected consecutive cases with DTC and at least early follow-up data (n = 4773; median follow-up 26 months; interquartile range, 12-46 months) at 40 Italian clinical centers. A decision tree was built to assign a risk index to each patient. The model allowed us to investigate the impact of different variables in risk prediction. RESULTS: By ATA risk estimation, 2492 patients (52.2%) were classified as low, 1873 (39.2%) as intermediate, and 408 as high risk. The decision tree model outperformed the ATA risk stratification system: the sensitivity of high-risk classification for structural disease increased from 37% to 49%, and the negative predictive value for low-risk patients increased by 3%. Feature importance was estimated. Several variables not included in the ATA system significantly impacted the prediction of disease persistence/recurrence: age, body mass index, tumor size, sex, family history of thyroid cancer, surgical approach, presurgical cytology, and circumstances of the diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Current risk stratification systems may be complemented by the inclusion of other variables in order to improve the prediction of treatment response. A complete dataset allows for more precise patient clustering.

Minimal Extrathyroidal Extension in Predicting 1-Year Outcomes: A Longitudinal Multicenter Study of Low-to-Intermediate-Risk Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma (ITCO#4).

Background: The role of minimal extrathyroidal extension (mETE) as a risk factor for persistent papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is still debated. The aims of this study were to assess the clinical impact of mETE as a predictor of worse initial treatment response in PTC patients and to verify the impact of radioiodine therapy after surgery in patients with mETE. Methods: We reviewed all records in the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory database and selected 2237 consecutive patients with PTC who satisfied the inclusion criteria (PTC with no lymph node metastases and at least 1 year of follow-up). For each case, we considered initial surgery, histological variant of PTC, tumor diameter, recurrence risk class according to the American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification system, use of radioiodine therapy, and initial therapy response, as suggested by ATA guidelines. Results: At 1-year follow-up, 1831 patients (81.8%) had an excellent response, 296 (13.2%) had an indeterminate response, 55 (2.5%) had a biochemical incomplete response, and 55 (2.5%) had a structural incomplete response. Statistical analysis suggested that mETE (odds ratio [OR] 1.16, p = 0.65), tumor size >2 cm (OR 1.45, p = 0.34), aggressive PTC histology (OR 0.55, p = 0.15), and age at diagnosis (OR 0.90, p = 0.32) were not significant risk factors for a worse initial therapy response. When evaluating the combination of mETE, tumor size, and aggressive PTC histology, the presence of mETE with a >2 cm tumor was significantly associated with a worse outcome (OR 5.27 [95% confidence interval], p = 0.014). The role of radioiodine ablation in patients with mETE was also evaluated. When considering radioiodine treatment, propensity score-based matching was performed, and no significant differences were found between treated and nontreated patients (p = 0.24). Conclusions: This study failed to show the prognostic value of mETE in predicting initial therapy response in a large cohort of PTC patients without lymph node metastases. The study suggests that the combination of tumor diameter and mETE can be used as a reliable prognostic factor for persistence and could be easily applied in clinical practice to manage PTC patients with low-to-intermediate risk of recurrent/persistent disease.

99mTc-MIBI Imaging in the presurgical characterization of thyroid follicular neoplasms: relationship to multidrug resistance protein expression.

UNLABELLED: Recently, thyroid (99m)Tc-methoxyisobutylisonitrile ((99m)Tc-MIBI) scintiscanning has been proposed in an attempt to preoperatively identify thyroid malignancies, but discrepant results have been reported for oncocytic lesions. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of visual and semiquantitative analyses of (99m)Tc-MIBI scintigraphy for preoperatively characterizing thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytologic diagnoses, segregating in advance nononcocytic variants from those that are oncocytic. This study also aimed to analyze the relationship between (99m)Tc-MIBI images and P-glycoprotein (P-gp)/multidrug resistance-associated protein-1 (MRP1) immunohistochemical expression. METHODS: Fifty-one consecutive patients with cold thyroid nodules cytologically diagnosed as nononcocytic or oncocytic follicular neoplasm were prospectively studied. Visual and semiquantitative (99m)Tc-MIBI scanning was performed and the diagnoses of the lesions were histologically proven by subsequent thyroidectomy. Immunohistochemical evaluation of P-gp and MRP1 was also performed on surgical samples. RESULTS: Visual and semiquantitative (99m)Tc-MIBI scintiscans showed a low specificity in preoperatively discriminating malignant oncocytic lesions. In nononcocytic nodules, the semiquantitative method was more accurate than the visual (94.44% and 77.78%, respectively). P-gp protein expression was negative in all thyroid lesions, whereas apical plasma membrane MRP1 expression was found in 78% of the lesions with a negative (99m)Tc-MIBI retention index, compared with 11% of lesions with a positive retention index, correlating most strongly with a negative (99m)Tc-MIBI RI in those cases with strong MRP1 apical expression. CONCLUSION: Semiquantitative (99m)Tc-MIBI scintigraphy is an adjunctive method to predict preoperatively the malignant behavior of nononcocytic follicular thyroid nodules indeterminate at fine-needle aspiration biopsy, with a potential impact on the definition of their clinical management. Moreover, the good correlation found between immunohistochemical apical expression of MRP1 and the scintigraphic findings supports the (99m)Tc-MIBI results and provides tissue information on the molecular mechanisms responsible for (99m)Tc-MIBI images in thyroid lesions.