Genome-wide cell-free DNA fragmentation in patients with cancer.

Cell-free DNA in the blood provides a non-invasive diagnostic avenue for patients with cancer1. However, characteristics of the origins and molecular features of cell-free DNA are poorly understood. Here we developed an approach to evaluate fragmentation patterns of cell-free DNA across the genome, and found that profiles of healthy individuals reflected nucleosomal patterns of white blood cells, whereas patients with cancer had altered fragmentation profiles. We used this method to analyse the fragmentation profiles of 236 patients with breast, colorectal, lung, ovarian, pancreatic, gastric or bile duct cancer and 245 healthy individuals. A machine learning model that incorporated genome-wide fragmentation features had sensitivities of detection ranging from 57% to more than 99% among the seven cancer types at 98% specificity, with an overall area under the curve value of 0.94. Fragmentation profiles could be used to identify the tissue of origin of the cancers to a limited number of sites in 75% of cases. Combining our approach with mutation-based cell-free DNA analyses detected 91% of patients with cancer. The results of these analyses highlight important properties of cell-free DNA and provide a proof-of-principle approach for the screening, early detection and monitoring of human cancer.

Harnessing the Potential of Real-World Evidence in the Treatment of Colorectal Cancer: Where Do We Stand?

OPINION STATEMENT: Treatment guidelines for colorectal cancer (CRC) are primarily based on the results of randomized clinical trials (RCTs), the gold standard methodology to evaluate safety and efficacy of oncological treatments. However, generalizability of trial results is often limited due to stringent eligibility criteria, underrepresentation of specific populations, and more heterogeneity in clinical practice. This may result in an efficacy-effectiveness gap and uncertainty regarding meaningful benefit versus treatment harm. Meanwhile, conduct of traditional RCTs has become increasingly challenging due to identification of a growing number of (small) molecular subtypes. These challenges-combined with the digitalization of health records-have led to growing interest in use of real-world data (RWD) to complement evidence from RCTs. RWD is used to evaluate epidemiological trends, quality of care, treatment effectiveness, long-term (rare) safety, and quality of life (QoL) measures. In addition, RWD is increasingly considered in decision-making by clinicians, regulators, and payers. In this narrative review, we elaborate on these applications in CRC, and provide illustrative examples. As long as the quality of RWD is safeguarded, ongoing developments, such as common data models, federated learning, and predictive modelling, will further unfold its potential. First, whenever possible, we recommend conducting pragmatic trials, such as registry-based RCTs, to optimize generalizability and answer clinical questions that are not addressed in registrational trials. Second, we argue that marketing approval should be conditional for patients who would have been ineligible for the registrational trial, awaiting planned (non) randomized evaluation of outcomes in the real world. Third, high-quality effectiveness results should be incorporated in treatment guidelines to aid in patient counseling. We believe that a coordinated effort from all stakeholders is essential to improve the quality of RWD, create a learning healthcare system with optimal use of trials and real-world evidence (RWE), and ultimately ensure personalized care for every CRC patient.

First-line systemic treatment strategies in patients with initially unresectable colorectal cancer liver metastases (CAIRO5): an open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 3 study from the Dutch Colorectal Cancer Group.

BACKGROUND: Patients with initially unresectable colorectal cancer liver metastases might qualify for local treatment with curative intent after reducing the tumour size by induction systemic treatment. We aimed to compare the currently most active induction regimens. METHODS: In this open-label, multicentre, randomised, phase 3 study (CAIRO5), patients aged 18 years or older with histologically confirmed colorectal cancer, known RAS/BRAFV600E mutation status, WHO performance status of 0-1, and initially unresectable colorectal cancer liver metastases were enrolled at 46 Dutch and one Belgian secondary and tertiary centres. Resectability or unresectability of colorectal cancer liver metastases was assessed centrally by an expert panel of liver surgeons and radiologists, at baseline and every 2 months thereafter by predefined criteria. Randomisation was done centrally with the minimisation technique via a masked web-based allocation procedure. Patients with right-sided primary tumour site or RAS or BRAFV600E mutated tumours were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive FOLFOX or FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab (group A) or FOLFOXIRI plus bevacizumab (group B). Patients with left-sided and RAS and BRAFV600E wild-type tumours were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive FOLFOX or FOLFIRI plus bevacizumab (group C) or FOLFOX or FOLFIRI plus panitumumab (group D), every 14 days for up to 12 cycles. Patients were stratified by resectability of colorectal cancer liver metastases, serum lactate dehydrogenase concentration, choice of irinotecan versus oxaliplatin, and BRAFV600E mutation status (for groups A and B). Bevacizumab was administered intravenously at 5 mg/kg. Panitumumab was administered intravenously at 6 mg/kg. FOLFIRI consisted of intravenous infusion of irinotecan at 180 mg/m2 with folinic acid at 400 mg/m2, followed by bolus fluorouracil at 400 mg/m2 intravenously, followed by continuous infusion of fluorouracil at 2400 mg/m2. FOLFOX consisted of oxaliplatin at 85 mg/m2 intravenously together with the same schedule of folinic acid and fluorouracil as in FOLFIRI. FOLFOXIRI consisted of irinotecan at 165 mg/m2 intravenously, followed by intravenous infusion of oxaliplatin at 85 mg/m2 with folinic acid at 400 mg/m2, followed by continuous infusion of fluorouracil at 3200 mg/m2. Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was progression-free survival, analysed on a modified intention-to-treat basis, excluding patients who withdrew consent before starting study treatment or violated major entry criteria (no metastatic colorectal cancer, or previous liver surgery for colorectal cancer liver metastases). The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02162563, and accrual is complete. FINDINGS: Between Nov 13, 2014, and Jan 31, 2022, 530 patients (327 [62%] male and 203 [38%] female; median age 62 years [IQR 54-69]) were randomly assigned: 148 (28%) patients to group A, 146 (28%) patients to group B, 118 (22%) patients to group C, and 118 (22%) patients to group D. Groups C and D were prematurely closed for futility. 521 patients were included in the modified intention-to-treat population (147 in group A, 144 in group B, 114 in group C, and 116 in group D). The median follow-up at the time of this analysis was 51·1 months (95% CI 47·7-53·1) in groups A and B and 49·9 months (44·5-52·5) in in groups C and D. Median progression-free survival was 9·0 months (95% CI 7·7-10·5) in group A versus 10·6 months (9·9-12·1) in group B (stratified hazard ratio [HR] 0·76 [95% CI 0·60-0·98]; p=0·032), and 10·8 months (95% CI 9·9-12·6) in group C versus 10·4 months (9·8-13·0) in group D (stratified HR 1·11 [95% CI 0·84-1·48]; p=0·46). The most frequent grade 3-4 events in groups A and B were neutropenia (19 [13%] patients in group A vs 57 [40%] in group B; p<0·0001), hypertension (21 [14%] vs 20 [14%]; p=1·00), and diarrhoea (five [3%] vs 28 [19%]; p<0·0001), and in groups C and D were neutropenia (29 [25%] vs 24 [21%]; p=0·44), skin toxicity (one [1%] vs 29 [25%]; p<0·0001), hypertension (20 [18%] vs eight [7%]; p=0·016), and diarrhoea (five [4%] vs 18 [16%]; p=0·0072). Serious adverse events occurred in 46 (31%) patients in group A, 75 (52%) patients in group B, 41 (36%) patients in group C, and 49 (42%) patients in group D. Seven treatment-related deaths were reported in group B (two due to multiorgan failure, and one each due to sepsis, pneumonia, portal vein thrombosis, septic shock and liver failure, and sudden death), one in group C (multiorgan failure), and three in group D (cardiac arrest, pulmonary embolism, and abdominal sepsis). INTERPRETATION: In patients with initially unresectable colorectal cancer liver metastases, FOLFOXIRI-bevacizumab was the preferred treatment in patients with a right-sided or RAS or BRAFV600E mutated primary tumour. In patients with a left-sided and RAS and BRAFV600E wild-type tumour, the addition of panitumumab to FOLFOX or FOLFIRI showed no clinical benefit over bevacizumab, but was associated with more toxicity. FUNDING: Roche and Amgen.

Time-varying prognostic value of primary tumor sidedness in metastatic colorectal cancer: A population-based study and meta-analysis.

We studied the prognostic value of primary tumor sidedness in metastatic colorectal cancer over time and across treatment lines. Population data on synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer patients were extracted from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and SEER database. Pubmed, EMBASE and Cochrane library were searched for prospective studies on metastatic colorectal cancer to conduct a meta-analysis. Inclusion criteria consisted of metastatic disease, systemic treatment with palliative intent and specification of primary tumor location. Data were pooled using a random-effects model. For the population-based data, multivariable Cox models were constructed. The Grambsch-Therneau test was conducted to evaluate the potential time-varying nature of sidedness. Meta-regression incorporating treatment-line as variable was conducted to test the pre-specified hypothesis that the prognostic value of sidedness varies over time. Analysis of 12 885 and 16 160 synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer patients registered in the Netherlands Cancer Registry and SEER database, respectively, indicated a time-varying prognostic value of sidedness (P < .01). Thirty-one studies were selected for the meta-analysis (9558 patients for overall survival analysis). Pooled univariable hazard ratioleft-sided/right-sided for overall survival was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.76) in 1st-line, 0.76 (0.54-1.06) in 2nd-line and 1.01 (0.86-1.19) in 3rd-line studies. Hazard ratios were significantly influenced by treatment line (P = .035). The prognostic value of sidedness of the primary tumor in metastatic colorectal cancer patients treated with palliative systemic therapy decreases over time since diagnosis, suggesting that sidedness may not be a useful stratification factor in late-line trials. This decrease in prognostic value should be taken into account when providing prognostic information to patients.

Pembrolizumab in Asian patients with microsatellite-instability-high/mismatch-repair-deficient colorectal cancer.

The phase 3 KEYNOTE-177 study evaluated pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab or cetuximab in patients with newly diagnosed, microsatellite-instability-high (MSI-H)/mismatch-repair-deficient (dMMR) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Primary endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS) per RECIST v1.1 by blinded independent central review (BICR) and overall survival (OS). Secondary endpoints were overall response rate (ORR) per RECIST v1.1 by BICR and safety. Here, we report results from the post hoc analysis of patients who were enrolled in Asia from the final analysis (FA) of KEYNOTE-177. A total of 48 patients from Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan (pembrolizumab, n = 22; chemotherapy, n = 26) were included. At FA, median time from randomization to data cutoff (February 19, 2021) was 45.3 (range 38.1-57.8) months with pembrolizumab and 43.9 (range 36.6-55.1) months with chemotherapy. Median PFS was not reached (NR; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.9 months-NR) with pembrolizumab versus 10.4 (95% CI 6.3-22.0) months with chemotherapy (hazard ratio [HR] 0.56, 95% CI 0.26-1.20). Median OS was NR (range 13.8 months-NR) versus 30.0 (14.7-NR) months (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.27-1.55) and ORR was 50% (95% CI 28-72) versus 46% (95% CI 27-67). Grade 3/4 treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) were reported by two patients (9%) in the pembrolizumab arm and 20 (80%) in the chemotherapy arm. Immune-mediated adverse events or infusion reactions were reported by six patients (27%) and 10 patients (40%), respectively. No deaths due to TRAEs occurred. These data support first-line pembrolizumab as a standard of care for patients from Asia with MSI-H/dMMR mCRC. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02563002.

Survival of Patients with Deficient Mismatch Repair Versus Proficient Mismatch Repair Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Receiving Curative-Intent Local Treatment of Metastases in a Nationwide Cohort.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether curative-intent local therapy of metastases is of similar benefit for the biological distinct subgroup of patients with deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) compared with proficient mismatch repair (pMMR) mCRC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this nationwide study, recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed in patients with dMMR versus pMMR mCRC who underwent curative-intent local treatment of metastases between 2015 and 2018. Subgroup analyses were performed for resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) and cytoreductive surgery ± hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS ± HIPEC). Multivariable regression was conducted. RESULTS: Median RFS was 11.1 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.5-41.1 months] for patients with dMMR tumors compared with 8.9 months (95% CI 8.1-9.8 months) for pMMR tumors. Two-year RFS was higher in patients with dMMR versus pMMR (43% vs. 21%). Results were similar within subgroups of local treatment (CRLM and CRS ± HIPEC). Characteristics differed significantly between patients with dMMR and pMMR mCRC; however, multivariable analysis continued to demonstrate dMMR as independent factor for improved RFS [hazard ratio (HR): 0.57, 95% CI 0.38-0.87]. Median OS was 33.3 months for dMMR mCRC compared with 43.5 months for pMMR mCRC, mainly due to poor survival of patients with dMMR in cases of recurrence in the preimmunotherapy era. CONCLUSION: Patients with dMMR eligible for curative-intent local treatment of metastases showed a comparable to more favorable RFS compared with patients with pMMR, with a clinically relevant proportion of patients remaining free of recurrence. This supports local treatment as a valuable treatment option in patients with dMMR mCRC and can aid in shared decision-making regarding upfront local therapy versus immunotherapy.

Intersurgeon Variability in Local Treatment Planning for Patients with Initially Unresectable Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases: Analysis of the Liver Expert Panel of the Dutch Colorectal Cancer Group.

BACKGROUND: Consensus on resectability criteria for colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLM) is lacking, resulting in differences in therapeutic strategies. This study evaluated variability of resectability assessments and local treatment plans for patients with initially unresectable CRLM by the liver expert panel from the randomised phase III CAIRO5 study. METHODS: The liver panel, comprising surgeons and radiologists, evaluated resectability by predefined criteria at baseline and 2-monthly thereafter. If surgeons judged CRLM as resectable, detailed local treatment plans were provided. The panel chair determined the conclusion of resectability status and local treatment advice, and forwarded it to local surgeons. RESULTS: A total of 1149 panel evaluations of 496 patients were included. Intersurgeon disagreement was observed in 50% of evaluations and was lower at baseline than follow-up (36% vs. 60%, p < 0.001). Among surgeons in general, votes for resectable CRLM at baseline and follow-up ranged between 0-12% and 27-62%, and for permanently unresectable CRLM between 3-40% and 6-47%, respectively. Surgeons proposed different local treatment plans in 77% of patients. The most pronounced intersurgeon differences concerned the advice to proceed with hemihepatectomy versus parenchymal-preserving approaches. Eighty-four percent of patients judged by the panel as having resectable CRLM indeed received local treatment. Local surgeons followed the technical plan proposed by the panel in 40% of patients. CONCLUSION: Considerable variability exists among expert liver surgeons in assessing resectability and local treatment planning of initially unresectable CRLM. This stresses the value of panel-based decisions, and the need for consensus guidelines on resectability criteria and technical approach to prevent unwarranted variability in clinical practice.

Predicting early extrahepatic recurrence after local treatment of colorectal liver metastases.

BACKGROUND: Patients who develop early extrahepatic recurrence (EHR) may not benefit from local treatment of colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs). This study aimed to develop a prediction model for early EHR after local treatment of CRLMs using a national data set. METHODS: A Cox regression prediction model for EHR was developed and validated internally using data on patients who had local treatment for CRLMs with curative intent. Performance assessment included calibration, discrimination, net benefit, and generalizability by internal-external cross-validation. The prognostic relevance of early EHR (within 6 months) was evaluated by landmark analysis. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 35 months, 557 of the 1077 patients had EHR and 249 died. Median overall survival was 19.5 (95 per cent c.i. 15.6 to 23.0) months in patients with early EHR after CRLM treatment, compared with not reached (45.3 months to not reached) in patients without an early EHR. The EHR prediction model included side and stage of the primary tumour, RAS/BRAFV600E mutational status, and number and size of CRLMs. The range of 6-month EHR predictions was 5.9-56.0 (i.q.r. 12.9-22.0) per cent. The model demonstrated good calibration and discrimination. The C-index through 6 and 12 months was 0.663 (95 per cent c.i. 0.624 to 0.702) and 0.661 (0.632 to 0.689) respectively. The observed 6-month EHR risk was 6.5 per cent for patients in the lowest quartile of predicted risk compared with 32.0 per cent in the highest quartile. CONCLUSION: Early EHR after local treatment of CRLMs can be predicted.

Work Ability in Patients With Stage I to IV Colon Cancer: Results of the Dutch Prospective Colorectal Cancer Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Colon cancer affects a patient's ability to work. Many patients who have colon cancer are employed at the time of diagnosis. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated work ability during the first 2 years after colon cancer diagnosis. DESIGN: This study is a national prospective study, the Prospective Dutch ColoRectal Cancer cohort, including clinical data and patient-reported outcomes. SETTINGS: Data were collected in 59 medical centers in the Netherlands. PATIENTS: Patients <67 years of age with stage I to IV colon cancer and who completed Work Ability Index questionnaires were selected. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Work ability was assessed at baseline, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. The Work Ability Index (range, 0 to 49) was evaluated using linear mixed models. Outcomes were matched to population controls without cancer. RESULTS: Of 390 patients, 84% had paid employment. Work ability of patients with stage I to IV colon cancer was significantly lower at the time of diagnosis than in matched population controls (31 ± 8.2 and 41 ± 5.6). Patients with stage I to III disease receiving surgery only regained Work Ability Index scores comparable to matched population controls at 18 months. Patients receiving adjuvant systemic treatment initially demonstrated a decrease in work ability with improvements from 6 months onward and normalization at 24 months. Patients with stage IV disease did not demonstrate improvements in work ability outcomes over time. Work ability scores were negatively influenced by the administration of systemic treatment and ≥1 comorbidities. LIMITATIONS: Only patients with patient-reported outcomes and work at baseline were included in this analysis. Also, questionnaire response rates decreased over time. CONCLUSIONS: Work ability in patients with colon cancer is decreased for a prolonged time. Recovery depends on disease stage, type of treatment, and comorbidities. Patients with stage I to III disease treated with curative surgery alone were the first to regain work ability, followed by patients who receive adjuvant chemotherapy. Patients with stage IV disease did not regain work ability. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/B759 . CAPACIDAD LABORAL EN PACIENTES CON CNCER DE COLON EN ESTADIO IIV RESULTADOS PROSPECTIVOS DE CNCER COLORECTAL EN UNA COHORTE HOLANDESA: ANTECEDENTES:El cáncer de colon afecta la capacidad de trabajo en un paciente. Muchos pacientes con cáncer de colon están empleados en el momento del diagnóstico.OBJETIVO:Evaluamos la capacidad laboral durante los dos primeros años posteriores al diagnóstico de cáncer de colon.DISEÑO:Es un estudio prospectivo nacional, la cohorte de cáncer colorrectal holandés, incluye datos clínicos y resultados informados por los pacientes.ENTORNO CLINICO:Se recopilaron datos de 59 centros médicos en los Países Bajos.PACIENTES:Se seleccionaron pacientes < 67 años, con cáncer de colon en estadio I-IV, que completaron los cuestionarios de índice de capacidad para el trabajo.PRINCIPALES MEDIDAS DE VALORACIÓN:La capacidad para el trabajo se evaluó al inicio, a los 3, 6, 12, 18 y 24 meses. El índice de capacidad para el trabajo (que va de 0 a 49) se evaluó mediante modelos lineales mixtos. Los resultados fueron comparados con el grupo control sin cáncer.RESULTADOS:De 390 pacientes, el 84% tenía un empleo remunerado. La capacidad de trabajo de los pacientes en estadio I-IV fue significativamente menor en el momento del diagnóstico en comparación con el grupo control (31 ± 8,2 y 41 ± 5,6, respectivamente). Los pacientes con enfermedad en estadio I-III que recibieron cirugía lograron recuperar puntajes del índice de capacidad laboral comparables a los controles a los 18 meses. Los pacientes que recibieron tratamiento sistémico adyuvante inicialmente demostraron una disminución en la capacidad de trabajo con mejoras a partir de los 6 meses en adelante y una normalización a los 24 meses. Los pacientes en estadio IV no demostraron mejoras en los resultados de la capacidad laboral a lo largo del tiempo. Las puntuaciones de capacidad para el trabajo se vieron influidas negativamente por la administración del tratamiento sistémico y la existencia de ≥1 comorbilidades.LIMITACIONES:En este análisis solo se incluyeron los pacientes con resultados y trabajo desde el inicio del estudio. Además, las tasas de respuesta al cuestionario disminuyeron con el tiempo.CONCLUSIONES:La capacidad de trabajo en pacientes con cáncer de colon se reduce durante un tiempo prolongado. La recuperación depende del estadio de la enfermedad, el tipo de tratamiento y la comorbilidad. Los pacientes con enfermedad en estadio I-III tratados con cirugía curativa exclusivamente, son los primeros en recuperar la capacidad para trabajar, seguidos de los pacientes que reciben quimioterapia adyuvante. Los pacientes con enfermedad en estadio IV no recuperan la capacidad para trabajar. Consulte Video Resumen en http://links.lww.com/DCR/B759 . (Traducción- Dr. Ingrid Melo ).

Toxicity and efficacy of chronomodulated chemotherapy: a systematic review.

Timing chemotherapy on the basis of the body's intrinsic circadian clock-ie, chronomodulated chemotherapy-might improve efficacy and reduce treatment toxicity. This systematic review summarises the available clinical evidence on the effects of chronomodulated chemotherapy from randomised, controlled trials in adult patients with cancer, published between the date of database inception and June 1, 2021. This study complies with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and was registered on the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42020177878). The protocol was published on Oct 21, 2020, before study initiation. The primary outcome measures comprised toxicity incidence, overall survival, progression-free survival, and objective response rate. Of 1455 identified abstracts, 18 studies including 2547 patients were selected. Studies were heterogeneous in study design, treatment, and population. 14 (77%) of 18 studies reported differences among groups in toxicity. 11 (61%) studies reported that chronomodulated chemotherapy resulted in a significant decrease in toxicity while maintaining anti-cancer activity. Two (11%) studies showed that chronomodulated chemotherapy reduced some toxic effects but increased others, and one (6%) study reported worse toxicity outcomes than standard chemotherapy. Three (17%) studies reported improved efficacy (survival measures, objective response rate, or time to treatment failure) of chronomodulated chemotherapy, and no studies reported a decrease in efficacy. In conclusion, most studies provide evidence of the reduction of toxicity resulting from chronomodulated chemotherapy, while efficacy is maintained. More and larger, carefully designed, randomised, controlled trials are needed to provide recommendations for clinical practice.

Predictive value of chromosome 18q11.2-q12.1 loss for benefit from bevacizumab in metastatic colorectal cancer: A post hoc analysis of the randomized phase III-trial AGITG-MAX.

The VEGF-A monoclonal antibody bevacizumab is currently recommended for first-line treatment of all metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients. Cost-benefit ratio and side-effects however necessitate patient selection. A large retrospective yet nonrandomized study showed that patients with loss of chromosome 18q11.2-q12.1 in the tumor and treated with bevacizumab have 3 months improved median progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) benefit compared to patients without this loss and/or treatment modality. Implementation for loss of chromosome 18q11.2-q12.1 as a marker in clinical practice mandates evidence in a randomized controlled trial for bevacizumab. Of the trials with randomization of chemotherapy vs chemotherapy with bevacizumab, the AGITG-MAX trial was the only one with tumor materials available. Chromosome 18q11.2-q12.1 copy number status was measured for 256 AGITG-MAX trial patients and correlated with PFS according to a predefined analysis plan with marker-treatment interaction as the primary end-point. Chromosome 18q11.2-q12.1 losses were detected in 71% of patients (181/256) characteristic for mCRC. Consistent with the nonrandomized study, significant PFS benefit of bevacizumab was observed in patients with chromosome 18q11.2-q12.1 loss (P = .009), and not in patients without 18q loss (P = .67). Although significance for marker-treatment interaction was not reached (Pinteraction  = .28), hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval of this randomized cohort (HRinteraction  = 0.72; 95% CI = 0.39-1.32) shows striking overlap with the nonrandomized study cohorts (HRinteraction  = 0.41; 95% CI = 0.32-0.8) supported by a nonsignificant Cochrane χ2 test (P = .11) for heterogeneity. We conclude that post hoc analysis of the AGITG-MAX RCT provides supportive evidence for chromosome 18q11.2-q12.1 as a predictive marker for bevacizumab in mCRC patients.

Development and external validation of a prediction model for overall survival after resection of distal cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Various prognostic factors are associated with overall survival (OS) after resection of distal cholangiocarcinoma (dCCA). The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for 3-year OS after pancreatoduodenectomy for dCCA. METHODS: The derivation cohort consisted of all patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for dCCA in the Netherlands (2009-2016). Clinically relevant variables were selected based on the Akaike information criterion using a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model, with model performance being assessed by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. External validation was performed using patients from the Belgium Cancer Registry (2008-2016), and patients from two university hospitals of Southampton (U.K.) and Verona (Italy). RESULTS: Independent prognostic factors for OS in the derivation cohort of 454 patients after pancreatoduodenectomy for dCCA were age (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03), pT (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.07-1.90) and pN category (pN1: HR 1.78, 95% CI 1.37-2.32; pN2: HR 2.21, 95% CI 1.63-3.01), resection margin status (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.39-2.29) and tumour differentiation (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.62-2.53). The prediction model was based on these prognostic factors. The optimism-adjusted C-indices were similar in the derivation cohort (0.69), and in the Belgian (0.66) and Southampton-Verona (0.68) validation cohorts. Calibration was accurate in the Belgian validation cohort (slope = 0.93, intercept = 0.12), but slightly less optimal in the Southampton-Verona validation cohort (slope = 0.88, intercept = 0.32). Based on this model, three risk groups with different prognoses were identified (3-year OS of 65.4%, 33.2% and 11.8%). CONCLUSIONS: The prediction model for 3-year OS after resection of dCCA had reasonable performance in both the derivation and geographically external validation cohort. Calibration slightly differed between validation cohorts. The model is readily available via www. pancreascalculator.com to inform patients from Western European countries on their prognosis, and may be used to stratify patients for clinical trials.

Serum-based measurements of stromal activation through ADAM12 associate with poor prognosis in colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Recently it has been recognized that stromal markers could be used as a clinically relevant biomarker for therapy response and prognosis. Here, we report on a serum marker for stromal activation, A Disintegrin and Metalloprotease 12 (ADAM12) in colorectal cancer (CRC). METHODS: Using gene expression databases we investigated ADAM12 expression in CRC and delineated the source of ADAM12 expression. The clinical value of ADAM12 was retrospectively assessed in the CAIRO2 trial in metastatic CRC with 235 patients (31% of total cohort), and an independent rectal cancer cohort (n = 20). RESULTS: ADAM12 is expressed by activated CRC associated fibroblasts. In the CAIRO2 trial cohort, ADAM12 serum levels were prognostic (ADAM12 low versus ADAM12 high; median OS 25.3 vs. 17.1 months, HR 1.48 [95% CI 1.11-1.96], P = 0.007). The prognostic potential was specifically high for metastatic rectal cancer (HR 1.78 [95% CI 1.06-3.00], P = 0.030) and mesenchymal subtype tumors (HR 2.12 [95% CI 1.25-3.60], P = 0.004). ADAM12 also showed potential for predicting recurrence in an exploratory analysis of non-metastatic rectal cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Here we describe a non-invasive marker for activated stroma in CRC which associates with poor outcome, especially for primary cancers located in the rectum.

External validation of the MSKCC nomogram to estimate five-year overall survival after surgery for stage I-III colon cancer in a Dutch population.

INTRODUCTION: The Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Centre (MSKCC) nomogram has been developed to estimate five-year overall survival (OS) after curative-intent surgery of colon cancer based on age, sex, T stage, differentiation grade, number of positive and examined regional lymph nodes. This is the first evaluation of the performance of the MSKCC model in a European population regarding prediction of OS. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Population-based data from patients with stage I-III colon cancer diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR) for external validation of the MSKCC prediction model. Five-year survival probabilities were estimated for all patients in our dataset by using the MSKCC prediction equation. Histogram density plots were created to depict the distribution of the estimated probability and prognostic index. The performance of the model was evaluated in terms of its overall performance, discrimination, and calibration. RESULTS: A total of 39,805 patients were included. Five-year OS was 71.9% (95% CI 71.5; 72.3) (11,051 events) with a median follow up of 5.6 years (IQR 4.1; 7.7). The Brier score was 0.10 (95% CI 0.10; 0.10). The C-index was 0.75 (95% CI 0.75; 0.76). The calibration measures and plot indicated that the model slightly overestimated observed mortality (observed/expected ratio = 0.86 [95% CI 0.86; 0.87], calibration intercept = -0.14 [95% CI -0.16; -0.11], and slope 1.07 [95% CI 1.05; 1.09], ICI = 0.04, E50 = 0.04, and E90 = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The external validation of the MSKCC prediction nomogram in a large Dutch cohort supports the use of this practical tool in the European patient population. These personalised estimated survival probabilities may support clinicians when informing patients about prognosis. Adding potential relevant prognostic factors to the model, such as primary tumour location, might further improve the model.

Stromal-derived interleukin 6 drives epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition and therapy resistance in esophageal adenocarcinoma.

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has a dismal prognosis, and survival benefits of recent multimodality treatments remain small. Cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) are known to contribute to poor outcome by conferring therapy resistance to various cancer types, but this has not been explored in EAC. Importantly, a targeted strategy to circumvent CAF-induced resistance has yet to be identified. By using EAC patient-derived CAFs, organoid cultures, and xenograft models we identified IL-6 as the stromal driver of therapy resistance in EAC. IL-6 activated epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition in cancer cells, which was accompanied by enhanced treatment resistance, migratory capacity, and clonogenicity. Inhibition of IL-6 restored drug sensitivity in patient-derived organoid cultures and cell lines. Analysis of patient gene expression profiles identified ADAM12 as a noninflammation-related serum-borne marker for IL-6-producing CAFs, and serum levels of this marker predicted unfavorable responses to neoadjuvant chemoradiation in EAC patients. These results demonstrate a stromal contribution to therapy resistance in EAC. This signaling can be targeted to resensitize EAC to therapy, and its activity can be measured using serum-borne markers.

Health-related quality of life in patients with microsatellite instability-high or mismatch repair deficient metastatic colorectal cancer treated with first-line pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy (KEYNOTE-177): an open-label, randomised, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: In the KEYNOTE-177 study, pembrolizumab monotherapy provided statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in progression-free survival versus chemotherapy as first-line treatment in patients with microsatellite instability-high or mismatch repair-deficient metastatic colorectal cancer. To further support the efficacy and safety findings of the KEYNOTE-177 study, results of the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) analyses are reported here. METHODS: KEYNOTE-177 is an open-label, randomised, phase 3 trial being done at 192 cancer centres in 23 countries, in patients aged 18 years and older with microsatellite instability-high or mismatch repair-deficient metastatic colorectal cancer, with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0 or 1, and who had not received previous systemic therapy for metastatic disease. Eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) centrally by use of interactive voice response or integrated web response technology to receive pembrolizumab 200 mg intravenously every 3 weeks or investigator's choice chemotherapy (mFOLFOX6 [leucovorin, fluorouracil, and oxaliplatin] or FOLFIRI [leucovorin, fluorouracil, and irinotecan] intravenously every 2 weeks with or without intravenous bevacizumab or cetuximab). Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment assignment. The primary endpoints were progression-free survival (previously reported) and overall survival (data to be reported at the time of the final analysis). HRQOL outcomes were evaluated as prespecified exploratory endpoints. The analysis population comprised all randomly assigned patients who received at least one dose of study treatment and completed at least one HRQOL assessment. HRQOL outcomes were mean change from baseline to prespecified week 18 in European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 (EORTC QLQ-C30) and EORTC Quality of Life Questionnaire-Colorectal 29 (EORTC QLQ-CR29) scale and item scores, and in the EuroQoL 5 Dimensions 3 Levels (EQ-5D-3L) visual analogue scale and health utility scores; the proportion of patients with improved, stable, or deteriorated scores from baseline to prespecified week 18 in EORTC QLQ-C30 scales and items; and time to deterioration in EORTC QLQ-C30 global health status/quality of life (GHS/QOL), physical functioning, social functioning, and fatigue scores and EORTC QLQ-CR29 urinary incontinence scores. The threshold for a small and clinically meaningful mean difference in EORTC QLQ-C30 score was 5-8 points. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02563002 and is ongoing; recruitment is closed. FINDINGS: Between Feb 11, 2016, and Feb 19, 2018, 307 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive pembrolizumab (n=153) or chemotherapy (n=154). The HRQOL analysis population comprised 294 patients (152 receiving pembrolizumab and 142 receiving chemotherapy). As of Feb 19, 2020, median time from randomisation to data cutoff was 32·4 months (IQR 27·7-37·8). Least squares mean (LSM) change from baseline to prespecified week 18 showed a clinically meaningful improvement in EORTC QLQ-C30 GHS/QOL scores with pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy (between-group LSM difference 8·96 [95% CI 4·24-13·69]; two-sided nominal p=0·0002). Median time to deterioration was longer with pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy for GHS/QOL (hazard ratio 0·61 [95% CI 0·38-0·98]; one-sided nominal p=0·019), physical functioning (0·50 [95% CI 0·32-0·81]; one-sided nominal p=0·0016), social functioning (0·53 [95% CI 0·32-0·87]; one-sided nominal p=0·0050), and fatigue scores (0·48 [95% CI 0·33-0·69]; one-sided nominal p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Pembrolizumab monotherapy led to clinically meaningful improvements in HRQOL compared with chemotherapy in patients with previously untreated microsatellite instability-high or mismatch repair-deficient metastatic colorectal cancer. These data, along with the previously reported clinical benefits, support pembrolizumab as a first-line treatment option for this population. FUNDING: Merck Sharp & Dohme, a subsidiary of Merck & Co, Kenilworth, NJ, USA.

Informing metastatic colorectal cancer patients by quantifying multiple scenarios for survival time based on real-life data.

Reported median overall survival (mOS) in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients participating in systemic therapy trials has increased to over 30 months. It is uncertain whether trial results translate to real-life populations. Moreover, patients prefer presentation of multiple survival scenarios. Population-based data of all stage IV CRC patients diagnosed between 2008 and 2016 were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry, which has a case ascertainment completeness surpassing 95%. We calculated the following percentiles (scenarios) of OS per year of diagnosis for the total population, and for treatment subgroups: 10th (best-case), 25th (upper-typical), 50th (median), 75th (lower-typical) and 90th (worst-case). Twenty-five percent of patients did not receive any antitumor treatment. From 2008 to 2016, mOS of the total population (n = 27275) remained unchanged at approximately 12 months. OS improved only for the upper-typical and best-case patients; by 4.2 to 29.1 months (P < .001), and by 6 to 62 months (P < .001), respectively. No clinically relevant change was observed among patients who received systemic therapy, with mOS close to 15 months and best-case scenario approximately 40 months. A clinically relevant improvement in survival over time was observed in patients who initially received metastasectomy and/or HIPEC only. In contrast to the wide belief based on trial data that mOS of mCRC patients receiving systemic therapy has improved substantially, improvement could not be demonstrated in our real-life population. Clinicians should consider quoting multiple survival scenarios based on real-life data instead of point estimates from clinical trials, when informing patients about their life expectancy.

Longitudinal effects of adjuvant chemotherapy and related neuropathy on health utility in stage II and III colon cancer patients: A prospective cohort study.

Patient's quality of life should be included in clinical decision making regarding the administration of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) in stage II/III colon cancer. Therefore, quality of life, summarized as health utility (HU), was evaluated for patients treated with and without ACT. Furthermore, the role of chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy (CIPN) on HU was evaluated. Patients diagnosed with stage II/III colon cancer between 2011 and 2019 and participating in the Prospective Dutch ColoRectal Cancer cohort were included (n = 914). HU scores were assessed with the EQ-5D-5L at baseline, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Patients treated with ACT received mainly capecitabine and oxaliplatin (57%) or capecitabine monotherapy (40%) (average duration: 3.5 months). HU 3 to 18 months after diagnosis (potential ACT period + 12 months follow-up) was compared between patients treated with and without ACT using a mixed model adjusted for age, sex and education level. Subsequently, the CIPN sensory, motor and autonomy scales, measured using the EORTC QLQ-CIPN20, were independently included in the model to evaluate the impact of neuropathy. Using a mixed model, a significant difference of -0.039 (95% confidence interval: -0.062; -0.015) in HU was found between patients treated with and without ACT. Including the CIPN sensory, motor and autonomy scales decreased the difference with 0.019, 0.015 and 0.02, respectively. HU 3 to 18 months after diagnosis is significantly lower in patients treated with ACT vs without ACT. This difference is on the boundary of clinical relevance and appears to be partly related to the sensory and motor neuropathy-related side effects of ACT.

Molecular subtype-specific efficacy of anti-EGFR therapy in colorectal cancer is dependent on the chemotherapy backbone.

BACKGROUND: Patient selection for addition of anti-EGFR therapy to chemotherapy for patients with RAS and BRAF wildtype metastatic colorectal cancer can still be optimised. Here we investigate the effect of anti-EGFR therapy on survival in different consensus molecular subtypes (CMSs) and stratified by primary tumour location. METHODS: Retrospective analyses, using the immunohistochemistry-based CMS classifier, were performed in the COIN (first-line oxaliplatin backbone with or without cetuximab) and PICCOLO trial (second-line irinotecan with or without panitumumab). Tumour tissue was available for 323 patients (20%) and 349 (41%), respectively. RESULTS: When using an irinotecan backbone, anti-EGFR therapy is effective in both CMS2/3 and CMS4 in left-sided primary tumours (progression-free survival (PFS): HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.26-0.75, P = 0.003 and HR 0.12, 95% CI 0.04-0.36, P < 0.001, respectively) and in CMS4 right-sided tumours (PFS HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.04-0.71, P = 0.02). Efficacy using an oxaliplatin backbone was restricted to left-sided CMS2/3 tumours (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.36-0.96, P = 0.034). CONCLUSIONS: The subtype-specific efficacy of anti-EGFR therapy is dependent on the chemotherapy backbone. This may provide the possibility of subtype-specific treatment strategies for a more optimal use of anti-EGFR therapy.

Survival of patients with deficient mismatch repair metastatic colorectal cancer in the pre-immunotherapy era.

BACKGROUND: Metastatic colorectal cancer patients with deficient mismatch repair (dMMR mCRC) benefit from immunotherapy. Interpretation of the single-arm immunotherapy trials is complicated by insignificant survival data during systemic non-immunotherapy. We present survival data on a large, comprehensive cohort of dMMR mCRC patients, treated with or without systemic non-immunotherapy. METHODS: Two hundred and eighty-one dMMR mCRC patients (n = 54 from three prospective Phase 3 CAIRO trials; n = 227 from the Netherlands Cancer Registry). Overall survival was analysed from diagnosis of mCRC (OS), from initiation of first-line (OS1) and second-line (OS2) systemic treatment. Cox regression analysis examined prognostic factors. As comparison for OS 2746 MMR proficient mCRC patients were identified. RESULTS: Of 281 dMMR patients, 62% received first-line and 26% second-line treatment. Median OS was 16.0 months (13.8-19.6) with antitumour therapy and 2.5 months (1.8-3.5) in untreated patients. OS1 was 12.8 months (10.7-15.2) and OS2 6.2 months (5.4-8.9) in treated dMMR patients. Treated dMMR patients had a 7.6-month shorter median OS than pMMR patients. CONCLUSION: Available data from immunotherapy trials lack a control arm with standard systemic treatment. Given the poor outcome compared to the immunotherapy results, our data strongly suggest a survival benefit of immunotherapy in dMMR mCRC patients.