Correcting mortality estimates among children and youth on antiretroviral therapy in southern Africa: A comparative analysis between a multi-country tracing study and linkage to a health information exchange.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up, correct mortality estimates for children, adolescents and young adults with HIV for unascertained outcomes in those loss to follow-up (LTFU) based on tracing and linkage data separately using data from the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS in Southern Africa. METHODS: We included data from two different populations of children, adolescents and young adults with HIV; (1) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤24 years from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe; (2) clinical data from children, adolescents and young adults with HIV aged ≤14 years from the Western Cape (WC) in South Africa. Outcomes of patients lost to follow-up were available from (1) a tracing study and (2) linkage to a health information exchange. For both populations, we compared six methods for correcting mortality estimates for all children, adolescents and young adults with HIV. RESULTS: We found substantial variations of mortality estimates among children, adolescents and young adults with HIV reported as lost to follow-up versus those retained in care. Ascertained mortality was higher among lost and traceable children, adolescents and young adults with HIV and lower among lost and linkable than those retained in care (mortality: 13.4% [traced] vs. 12.6% [retained-other Southern Africa countries]; 3.4% [linked] vs. 9.4% [retained-WC]). A high proportion of lost to follow-up children, adolescents and young adults with HIV had self-transferred (21.0% and 47.0%) in the traced and linked samples, respectively. The uncorrected method of non-informative censoring yielded the lowest mortality estimates among all methods for both tracing (6.0%) and linkage (4.0%) approaches at 2 years from ART start. Among corrected methods using ascertained data, multiple imputation, incorporating ascertained data (MI(asc.)) and inverse probability weighting with logistic weights were most robust for the tracing approach. In contrast, for the linkage approach, MI(asc.) was the most robust. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings emphasise that lost to follow-up is non-ignorable and both tracing and linkage improved outcome ascertainment: tracing identified substantial mortality in those reported as lost to follow-up, whereas linkage did not identify out-of-facility deaths, but showed that a large proportion of those reported as lost to follow-up were self-transfers.

Real-world use and outcomes of dolutegravir-containing antiretroviral therapy in HIV and tuberculosis co-infection: a site survey and cohort study in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Dolutegravir is being scaled up globally as part of antiretroviral therapy (ART), but for people with HIV and tuberculosis co-infection, its use is complicated by a drug-drug interaction with rifampicin requiring an additional daily dose of dolutegravir. This represents a disadvantage over efavirenz, which does not have a major drug-drug interaction with rifampicin. We sought to describe HIV clinic practices for prescribing concomitant dolutegravir and rifampicin, and characterize virologic outcomes among patients with tuberculosis co-infection receiving dolutegravir or efavirenz. METHODS: Within the four sub-Saharan Africa regions of the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS consortium, we conducted a site survey (2021) and a cohort study (2015-2021). The cohort study used routine clinical data and included patients newly initiating or already receiving dolutegravir or efavirenz at the time of tuberculosis diagnosis. Patients were followed from tuberculosis diagnosis until viral suppression (<1000 copies/ml), a competing event (switching ART regimen; loss to program/death) or administrative censoring at 12 months. RESULTS: In the survey, 86 of 90 (96%) HIV clinics in 18 countries reported prescribing dolutegravir to patients who were receiving rifampicin as part of tuberculosis treatment, with 77 (90%) reporting that they use twice-daily dosing of dolutegravir, of which 74 (96%) reported having 50 mg tablets available to accommodate twice-daily dosing. The cohort study included 3563 patients in 11 countries, with 67% newly or recently initiating ART. Among patients receiving dolutegravir (n = 465), the cumulative incidence of viral suppression was 58.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 54.3-63.3%), switching ART regimen was 4.1% (95% CI: 2.6-6.2%) and loss to program/death was 23.4% (95% CI: 19.7-27.4%). Patients receiving dolutegravir had improved viral suppression compared with patients receiving efavirenz who had a tuberculosis diagnosis before site dolutegravir availability (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR]: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.28-1.68) and after site dolutegravir availability (aSHR 1.28, 95% CI: 1.08-1.51). CONCLUSIONS: At a programmatic level, dolutegravir was being widely prescribed in sub-Saharan Africa for people with HIV and tuberculosis co-infection with a dose adjustment for the drug-drug interaction with rifampicin. Despite this more complex regimen, our cohort study revealed that dolutegravir did not negatively impact viral suppression.