Cost of Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Acute Lower Respiratory Infection Management in Young Children at the Regional and Global Level: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children aged <5 years. METHODS: We aimed to identify the global inpatient and outpatient cost of management of RSV-ALRI in young children to assist health policy makers in making decisions related to resource allocation for interventions to reduce severe morbidity and mortality from RSV in this age group. We searched 3 electronic databases including Global Health, Medline, and EMBASE for studies reporting cost data on RSV management in children under 60 months from 2000 to 2017. Unpublished data on the management cost of RSV episodes were collected through collaboration with an international working group (RSV GEN) and claim databases. RESULTS: We identified 41 studies reporting data from year 1987 to 2017, mainly from Europe, North America, and Australia, covering the management of a total of 365 828 RSV disease episodes. The average cost per episode was €3452 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3265-3639) and €299 (95% CI, 295-303) for inpatient and outpatient management without follow-up, and it increased to €8591(95% CI, 8489-8692) and €2191 (95% CI, 2190-2192), respectively, with follow-up to 2 years after the initial event. CONCLUSIONS: Known risk factors (early and late preterm birth, congenital heart disease, chronic lung disease, intensive care unit admission, and ventilator use) were associated with €4160 (95% CI, 3237-5082) increased cost of hospitalization. The global cost of inpatient and outpatient RSV ALRI management in young children in 2017 was estimated to be approximately €4.82 billion (95% CI, 3.47-7.93), 65% of these in developing countries and 55% of global costs accounted for by hospitalization. We have demonstrated that RSV imposed a substantial economic burden on health systems, governments, and the society.

Impact of Outpatient Neuraminidase Inhibitor Treatment in Patients Infected With Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 at High Risk of Hospitalization: An Individual Participant Data Metaanalysis.

BACKGROUND: While evidence exists to support the effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) in reducing mortality when given to hospitalized patients with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection, the impact of outpatient treatment on hospitalization has not been clearly established. We investigated the impact of outpatient NAI treatment on subsequent hospitalization in patients with A(H1N1)pdm09 virus infection. METHODS: We assembled general community and outpatient data from 9 clinical centers in different countries collected between January 2009 and December 2010. We standardized data from each study center to create a pooled dataset and then used mixed-effects logistic regression modeling to determine the effect of NAI treatment on hospitalization. We adjusted for NAI treatment propensity and preadmission antibiotic use, including "study center" as a random intercept to account for differences in baseline hospitalization rate between centers. RESULTS: We included 3376 patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, of whom 3085 (91.4%) had laboratory-confirmed infection. Eight hundred seventy-three patients (25.8%) received outpatient or community-based NAI treatment, 928 of 2395 (38.8%) with available data had dyspnea or respiratory distress, and hospitalizations occurred in 1705 (50.5%). After adjustment for preadmission antibiotics and NAI treatment propensity, preadmission NAI treatment was associated with decreased odds of hospital admission compared to no NAI treatment (adjusted odds ratio, 0.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.30). CONCLUSIONS: In a population with confirmed or suspected A(H1N1)pdm09 and at high risk of hospitalization, outpatient or community-based NAI treatment significantly reduced the likelihood of requiring hospital admission. These data suggest that community patients with severe influenza should receive NAI treatment.

A prospective observational study of oseltamivir safety and tolerability in infants and young children ≤24 months.

PURPOSE: Infants and young children are at elevated risk of influenza-associated complications, but information on the safety of antiviral therapies is limited in this age group. METHODS: In this prospective open-label observational safety study, children aged ≤24 months with a clinical diagnosis of influenza in routine practice received either no antiviral treatment ('unexposed' group) or oseltamivir treatment or prophylaxis ('exposed' group), according to the physician's judgment. Patients were followed up for 30 days after the baseline visit. RESULTS: Adverse events (AEs) were analysed in 1065 patients; they were reported in 390/711 (54.9%) in the unexposed group, 167/340 (49.1%) patients in the exposed group, and 6/14 prophylaxis patients. Cough and rhinitis were the most common events, reported more often in unexposed children (22.9 and 20.3% respectively) than in exposed children (13.2 and 10.0%; p < 0.001); pyrexia, diarrhoea and vomiting were less common, occurring at similar rates in exposed and unexposed patients. Nasal congestion (3.5%), bronchitis (5.6%) and upper respiratory tract infection (1.5%) were reported more frequently in exposed patients than in unexposed patients (0.7, 2.7 and 0.1% respectively; p < 0.05). In the exposed group, 11.2% of patients (n = 38) experienced 41 AEs considered at least possibly related to oseltamivir, none being assessed as serious. Overall, there were 79 serious AEs in 59 patients. Eleven discontinued treatment because of an AE. CONCLUSIONS: Oseltamivir has a good tolerability profile in infants and children aged ≤24 months. These findings contributed to the recent FDA approval of oseltamivir for treating infants aged 2-51 weeks.

Disease Burden and Inpatient Management of Children with Acute Respiratory Viral Infections during the Pre-COVID Era in Germany: A Cost-of-Illness Study.

Respiratory viral infections (RVIs) are common reasons for healthcare consultations. The inpatient management of RVIs consumes significant resources. From 2009 to 2014, we assessed the costs of RVI management in 4776 hospitalized children aged 0-18 years participating in a quality improvement program, where all ILI patients underwent virologic testing at the National Reference Centre followed by detailed recording of their clinical course. The direct (medical or non-medical) and indirect costs of inpatient management outside the ICU ('non-ICU') versus management requiring ICU care ('ICU') added up to EUR 2767.14 (non-ICU) vs. EUR 29,941.71 (ICU) for influenza, EUR 2713.14 (non-ICU) vs. EUR 16,951.06 (ICU) for RSV infections, and EUR 2767.33 (non-ICU) vs. EUR 14,394.02 (ICU) for human rhinovirus (hRV) infections, respectively. Non-ICU inpatient costs were similar for all eight RVIs studied: influenza, RSV, hRV, adenovirus (hAdV), metapneumovirus (hMPV), parainfluenza virus (hPIV), bocavirus (hBoV), and seasonal coronavirus (hCoV) infections. ICU costs for influenza, however, exceeded all other RVIs. At the time of the study, influenza was the only RVI with antiviral treatment options available for children, but only 9.8% of influenza patients (non-ICU) and 1.5% of ICU patients with influenza received antivirals; only 2.9% were vaccinated. Future studies should investigate the economic impact of treatment and prevention of influenza, COVID-19, and RSV post vaccine introduction.

Antiviral resistance and correlates of virologic failure in the first cohort of HIV-infected children gaining access to structured antiretroviral therapy in Lima, Peru: a cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of extended use of ART in developing countries has been enormous. A thorough understanding of all factors contributing to the success of antiretroviral therapy is required. The current study aims to investigate the value of cross-sectional drug resistance monitoring using DNA and RNA oligonucleotide ligation assays (OLA) in treatment cohorts in low-resource settings. The study was conducted in the first cohort of children gaining access to structured ART in Peru. METHODS: Between 2002-5, 46 eligible children started the standard regimen of AZT, 3TC and NFV Patients had a median age of 5.6 years (range: 0.7-14y), a median viral load of 1.7·105 RNA/ml (range: 2.1·10(3) - 1.2·10(6)), and a median CD4-count of 232 cells/µL (range: 1-1591). Of these, 20 patients were classified as CDC clinical category C and 31/46 as CDC immune category 3. At the time of cross-sectional analysis in 2005, adherence questionnaires were administered. DNA OLAs and RNA OLAs were performed from frozen PBMC and plasma, RNA genotyping from dried blood spots. RESULTS: During the first year of ART, 44% of children experienced virologic failure, with an additional 9% failing by the end of the second year. Virologic failure was significantly associated with the number of resistance mutations detected by DNA-OLA (p < 0.001) during cross-sectional analysis, but also with low immunologic CDC-scores at baseline (p < 0.001). Children who had been exposed to unsupervised short-term antiretrovirals before starting structured ART showed significantly higher numbers of resistance mutations by DNA-OLA (p = 0.01). Detection of M184V (3TC resistance) by RNA-OLA and DNA-OLA demonstrated a sensitivity of 0.93 and 0.86 and specificity of 0.67 and 0.7, respectively, for the identification of virologic failure. The RT mutations N88D and L90M (NFV resistance) detected by DNA-OLA correlated with virologic failure, whereas mutations at RT position 215 (AZT resistance) were not associated with virologic failure. CONCLUSIONS: Advanced immunosuppression at baseline and previous exposures to unsupervised brief cycles of ART significantly impaired treatment outcomes at a time when structured ART was finally introduced in his cohort. Brief maternal exposures to with AZT +/- NVP for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission did not affect treatment outcomes in this group of children. DNA-OLA from frozen PBMC provided a highly specific tool to detect archived drug resistance. RNA consensus genotyping from dried blood spots and RNA-OLA from plasma consistently detected drug resistance mutations, but merely in association with virologic failure.

Successful Treatment of Complicated Influenza A(H3N2) Virus Infection and Rhabdomyolysis with Compassionate Use of IV Zanamivir.

In 2019, EMA licensed intravenous (IV) zanamivir for severe influenza virus infection in children over 6 months as well as adults. Prior to that, it was possible via a compassionate use program. We present successful compassionate use of IV zanamivir in a 14-year-old female with severe influenza A(H3N2) and multi-organ failure, who had failed oral oseltamivir. Her illness was complicated by acute respiratory distress syndrome and rhabdomyolysis requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and hemofiltration. Considering the broad safety margins with neuraminidase inhibitors, an adult dose of 600 mg IV BID was administered in this 60 kg patient. Influenza virus was cleared rapidly and undetectable on day 13. Creatine kinase (CK) values were dropping from 38,000 to 500 within nine days. Given the recent licensure of IV zanamivir, multi-center prospective observational studies in pediatric Intensive Care Unit patients would be beneficial to guide the most appropriate use of IV zanamivir in this vulnerable age group.

Incidence, Disease Severity, and Follow-Up of Influenza A/A, A/B, and B/B Virus Dual Infections in Children: A Hospital-Based Digital Surveillance Program.

Influenza virus (IV) coinfection, i.e., simultaneous infection with IV and other viruses, is a common occurrence in humans. However, little is known about the incidence and clinical impact of coinfection with two different IV subtypes or lineages ("dual infections"). We report the incidence, standardized disease severity, and follow-up of IV dual infections from a hospital-based digital surveillance cohort, comprising 6073 pediatric patients fulfilling pre-defined criteria of influenza-like illness in Berlin, Germany. All patients were tested for IV A/B by PCR, including subtypes/lineages. We assessed all patients at the bedside using the mobile ViVI ScoreApp, providing a validated disease severity score in real-time. IV-positive patients underwent follow-up assessments until resolution of symptoms. Overall, IV dual infections were rare (4/6073 cases; 0.07%, incidence 12/100,000 per year) but showed unusual and/or prolonged clinical presentations with slightly above-average disease severity. We observed viral rebound, serial infection, and B/Yamagata-B/Victoria dual infection. Digital tools, used for instant clinical assessments at the bedside, combined with baseline/follow-up virologic investigation, help identify coinfections in cases of prolonged and/or complicated course of illness. Infection with one IV does not necessarily prevent consecutive or simultaneous (co-/dual) infection, highlighting the importance of multivalent influenza vaccination and enhanced digital clinical and virological surveillance.

Linking digital surveillance and in-depth virology to study clinical patterns of viral respiratory infections in vulnerable patient populations.

To improve the identification and management of viral respiratory infections, we established a clinical and virologic surveillance program for pediatric patients fulfilling pre-defined case criteria of influenza-like illness and viral respiratory infections. The program resulted in a cohort comprising 6,073 patients (56% male, median age 1.6 years, range 0-18.8 years), where every patient was assessed with a validated disease severity score at the point-of-care using the ViVI ScoreApp. We used machine learning and agnostic feature selection to identify characteristic clinical patterns. We tested all patients for human adenoviruses, 571 (9%) were positive. Adenovirus infections were particularly common and mild in children ≥1 month of age but rare and potentially severe in neonates: with lower airway involvement, disseminated disease, and a 50% mortality rate (n = 2/4). In one fatal case, we discovered a novel virus: HAdV-80. Standardized surveillance leveraging digital technology helps to identify characteristic clinical patterns, risk factors, and emerging pathogens.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human parainfluenza virus in children younger than 5 years for 2018: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human parainfluenza virus (hPIV) is a common virus in childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI). However, no estimates have been made to quantify the global burden of hPIV in childhood ALRI. We aimed to estimate the global and regional hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality for children younger than 5 years and stratified by 0-5 months, 6-11 months, and 12-59 months of age. METHODS: We did a systematic review of hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2020, found in MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Web of Science, Global Health Library, three Chinese databases, and Google search, and also identified a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies through an international research network. We included studies reporting community incidence of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; hospital admission rates of ALRI or ALRI with hypoxaemia in children with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; proportions of patients with ALRI admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed hPIV; or in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of ALRI with laboratory-confirmed hPIV. We used a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess risk of bias. We analysed incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs of hPIV-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. Adjustment was made to account for the non-detection of hPIV-4. We estimated hPIV-associated ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and in-hospital deaths using adjusted incidence, hospital admission rates, and hCFRs. We estimated the overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality (both in-hospital and out-hospital mortality) on the basis of the number of in-hospital deaths and care-seeking for child pneumonia. We estimated hPIV-attributable ALRI burden by accounting for attributable fractions for hPIV in laboratory-confirmed hPIV cases and deaths. Sensitivity analyses were done to validate the estimates of overall hPIV-associated ALRI mortality and hPIV-attributable ALRI mortality. The systematic review protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42019148570). FINDINGS: 203 studies were identified, including 162 hPIV-associated ALRI burden studies and a further 41 high-quality unpublished studies. Globally in 2018, an estimated 18·8 million (uncertainty range 12·8-28·9) ALRI cases, 725 000 (433 000-1 260 000) ALRI hospital admissions, and 34 400 (16 400-73 800) ALRI deaths were attributable to hPIVs among children younger than 5 years. The age-stratified and region-stratified analyses suggested that about 61% (35% for infants aged 0-5 months and 26% for 6-11 months) of the hospital admissions and 66% (42% for infants aged 0-5 months and 24% for 6-11 months) of the in-hospital deaths were in infants, and 70% of the in-hospital deaths were in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Between 73% and 100% (varying by outcome) of the data had a low risk in study design; the proportion was 46-65% for the adjustment for health-care use, 59-77% for patient groups excluded, 54-93% for case definition, 42-93% for sampling strategy, and 67-77% for test methods. Heterogeneity in estimates was found between studies for each outcome. INTERPRETATION: We report the first global burden estimates of hPIV-associated and hPIV-attributable ALRI in young children. Globally, approximately 13% of ALRI cases, 4-14% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of childhood ALRI mortality were attributable to hPIV. These numbers indicate a potentially notable burden of hPIV in ALRI morbidity and mortality in young children. These estimates should encourage and inform investment to accelerate the development of targeted interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of acute lower respiratory infection associated with human metapneumovirus in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Human metapneumovirus is a common virus associated with acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) in children. No global burden estimates are available for ALRIs associated with human metapneumovirus in children, and no licensed vaccines or drugs exist for human metapneumovirus infections. We aimed to estimate the age-stratified human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI global incidence, hospital admissions, and mortality burden in children younger than 5 years. METHODS: We estimated the global burden of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRIs in children younger than 5 years from a systematic review of 119 studies published between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2019, and a further 40 high quality unpublished studies. We assessed risk of bias using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We estimated incidence, hospital admission rates, and in-hospital case-fatality ratios (hCFRs) of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI using a generalised linear mixed model. We applied incidence and hospital admission rates of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI to population estimates to yield the morbidity burden estimates by age bands and World Bank income levels. We also estimated human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI in-hospital deaths and overall human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (both in-hospital and non-hospital deaths). Additionally, we estimated human metapneumovirus-attributable ALRI cases, hospital admissions, and deaths by combining human metapneumovirus-associated burden estimates and attributable fractions of human metapneumovirus in laboratory-confirmed human metapneumovirus cases and deaths. FINDINGS: In 2018, among children younger than 5 years globally, there were an estimated 14·2 million human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI cases (uncertainty range [UR] 10·2 million to 20·1 million), 643 000 human metapneumovirus-associated hospital admissions (UR 425 000 to 977 000), 7700 human metapneumovirus-associated in-hospital deaths (2600 to 48 800), and 16 100 overall (hospital and community) human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI deaths (5700 to 88 000). An estimated 11·1 million ALRI cases (UR 8·0 million to 15·7 million), 502 000 ALRI hospital admissions (UR 332 000 to 762 000), and 11 300 ALRI deaths (4000 to 61 600) could be causally attributed to human metapneumovirus in 2018. Around 58% of the hospital admissions were in infants under 12 months, and 64% of in-hospital deaths occurred in infants younger than 6 months, of which 79% occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Infants younger than 1 year have disproportionately high risks of severe human metapneumovirus infections across all World Bank income regions and all child mortality settings, similar to respiratory syncytial virus and influenza virus. Infants younger than 6 months in low-income and lower-middle-income countries are at greater risk of death from human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI than older children and those in upper-middle-income and high-income countries. Our mortality estimates demonstrate the importance of intervention strategies for infants across all settings, and warrant continued efforts to improve the outcome of human metapneumovirus-associated ALRI among young infants in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Current and Future Point-of-Care Tests for Emerging and New Respiratory Viruses and Future Perspectives.

The availability of pathogen-specific treatment options for respiratory tract infections (RTIs) increased the need for rapid diagnostic tests. Besides, retrospective studies, improved lab-based detection methods and the intensified search for new viruses since the beginning of the twenty-first century led to the discovery of several novel respiratory viruses. Among them are human bocavirus (HBoV), human coronaviruses (HCoV-HKU1, -NL63), human metapneumovirus (HMPV), rhinovirus type C (RV-C), and human polyomaviruses (KIPyV, WUPyV). Additionally, new viruses like SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV), novel strains of influenza virus A and B, and (most recently) SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have emerged. Although clinical presentation may be similar among different viruses, associated symptoms may range from a mild cold to a severe respiratory illness, and thus require a fast and reliable diagnosis. The increasing number of commercially available rapid point-of-care tests (POCTs) for respiratory viruses illustrates both the need for this kind of tests but also the problem, i.e., that the majority of such assays has significant limitations. In this review, we summarize recently published characteristics of POCTs and discuss their implications for the treatment of RTIs. The second key aspect of this work is a description of new and innovative diagnostic techniques, ranging from biosensors to novel portable and current lab-based nucleic acid amplification methods with the potential future use in point-of-care settings. While prototypes for some methods already exist, other ideas are still experimental, but all of them give an outlook of what can be expected as the next generation of POCTs.

Global burden of respiratory infections associated with seasonal influenza in children under 5 years in 2018: a systematic review and modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018. METHODS: We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. FINDINGS: In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109·5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63·1-190·6), 10·1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6·8-15·1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000-1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800-43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200-97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. INTERPRETATION: A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Persistent Bordetella bronchiseptica pneumonia in an immunocompetent infant and genetic comparison of clinical isolates with kennel cough vaccine strains.

An infant who experienced recurrent episodes of respiratory failure received a diagnosis of pertussis on the basis of immunofluorescence testing, but culture revealed macrolide-resistant Bordetella bronchiseptica. Genetic analysis demonstrated that the child was not infected with a kennel cough vaccine strain, although the family's dog had recently been vaccinated. The infection cleared with imipenem therapy.

Global respiratory syncytial virus-associated mortality in young children (RSV GOLD): a retrospective case series.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is an important cause of pneumonia mortality in young children. However, clinical data for fatal RSV infection are scarce. We aimed to identify clinical and socioeconomic characteristics of children aged younger than 5 years with RSV-related mortality using individual patient data. METHODS: In this retrospective case series, we developed an online questionnaire to obtain individual patient data for clinical and socioeconomic characteristics of children aged younger than 5 years who died with community-acquired RSV infection between Jan 1, 1995, and Oct 31, 2015, through leading research groups for child pneumonia identified through a comprehensive literature search and existing research networks. For the literature search, we searched PubMed for articles published up to Feb 3, 2015, using the key terms "RSV", "respiratory syncytial virus", or "respiratory syncytial viral" combined with "mortality", "fatality", "death", "died", "deaths", or "CFR" for articles published in English. We invited researchers and clinicians identified to participate between Nov 1, 2014, and Oct 31, 2015. We calculated descriptive statistics for all variables. FINDINGS: We studied 358 children with RSV-related in-hospital death from 23 countries across the world, with data contributed from 31 research groups. 117 (33%) children were from low-income or lower middle-income countries, 77 (22%) were from upper middle-income countries, and 164 (46%) were from high-income countries. 190 (53%) were male. Data for comorbidities were missing for some children in low-income and middle-income countries. Available data showed that comorbidities were present in at least 33 (28%) children from low-income or lower middle-income countries, 36 (47%) from upper middle-income countries, and 114 (70%) from high-income countries. Median age for RSV-related deaths was 5·0 months (IQR 2·3-11·0) in low-income or lower middle-income countries, 4·0 years (2·0-10·0) in upper middle-income countries, and 7·0 years (3·6-16·8) in high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: This study is the first large case series of children who died with community-acquired RSV infection. A substantial proportion of children with RSV-related death had comorbidities. Our results show that perinatal immunisation strategies for children aged younger than 6 months could have a substantial impact on RSV-related child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Safety, virology and pharmacokinetics of oseltamivir in infants with laboratory-confirmed influenza: a Phase I/II, prospective, open-label, multicentre clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: The influenza antiviral oseltamivir is not licensed for infants aged <1 year in most countries outside the United States. More information is needed on oseltamivir safety at different dosing levels in this vulnerable age group. METHODS: In this prospective, observational, non-randomized study, infants aged <1 year with laboratory-confirmed influenza were treated with oral oseltamivir for 5 days. Cohorts 1, 2 and 3 (aged 91-364, 31-90 and 0-30 days, respectively), received twice-daily dosages of 3, 2.5 and 2 mg/kg, respectively. Assessments included pharmacokinetics, on-treatment adverse events, resistance testing and viral shedding. RESULTS: A total of 65 patients were enrolled: 40, 20 and 5 in cohorts 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Systemic exposure to oseltamivir carboxylate (active metabolite) reached therapeutic levels in all patients, with an adequate safety margin. On-treatment adverse events (n=48) were reported by 32 patients (49%). At least one adverse event was reported by 43%, 65% and 40% of infants in cohorts 1, 2 and 3, respectively; most frequently vomiting and diarrhoea. Eight serious adverse events were reported, all of which were considered unrelated to treatment by the investigator. No deaths occurred and no patient had treatment withdrawn. Oseltamivir resistance mutations were detected in eight patients. CONCLUSIONS: Oseltamivir dosages of 2-3 mg/kg were well tolerated in infants aged <1 year and achieved therapeutic exposure levels. The current study supports the adoption of a universal dosing recommendation for infants. Clinicaltrials.gov unique identifier NCT00988325.

Risk factors for respiratory syncytial virus associated with acute lower respiratory infection in children under five years: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen identified in young children with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) as well as an important cause of hospital admission. The high incidence of RSV infection and its potential severe outcome make it important to identify and prioritise children who are at higher risk of developing RSV-associated ALRI. We aimed to identify risk factors for RSV-associated ALRI in young children. METHODS: We carried out a systematic literature review across 4 databases and obtained unpublished studies from RSV Global Epidemiology Network (RSV GEN) collaborators. Quality of all eligible studies was assessed according to modified GRADE criteria. We conducted meta-analyses to estimate odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for individual risk factors. RESULTS: We identified 20 studies (3 were unpublished data) with "good quality" that investigated 18 risk factors for RSV-associated ALRI in children younger than five years old. Among them, 8 risk factors were significantly associated with RSV-associated ALRI. The meta-estimates of their odds ratio (ORs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) are prematurity 1.96 (95% CI 1.44-2.67), low birth weight 1.91 (95% CI 1.45-2.53), being male 1.23 (95% CI 1.13-1.33), having siblings 1.60 (95% CI 1.32-1.95), maternal smoking 1.36 (95% CI 1.24-1.50), history of atopy 1.47 (95% CI 1.16-1.87), no breastfeeding 2.24 (95% CI 1.56-3.20) and crowding 1.94 (95% CI 1.29-2.93). Although there were insufficient studies available to generate a meta-estimate for HIV, all articles (irrespective of quality scores) reported significant associations between HIV and RSV-associated ALRI. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents a comprehensive report of the strength of association between various socio-demographic risk factors and RSV-associated ALRI in young children. Some of these amenable risk factors are similar to those that have been identified for (all cause) ALRI and thus, in addition to the future impact of novel RSV vaccines, national action against ALRI risk factors as part of national control programmes can be expected to reduce burden of disease from RSV. Further research which identifies, accesses and analyses additional unpublished RSV data sets could further improve the precision of these estimates.

In vitro HIV-1 evolution in response to triple reverse transcriptase inhibitors & in silico phenotypic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of ART regimens strongly depends upon complex interactions between the selective pressure of drugs and the evolution of mutations that allow or restrict drug resistance. METHODS: Four clinical isolates from NRTI-exposed, NNRTI-naive subjects were passaged in increasing concentrations of NVP in combination with 1 µM 3 TC and 2 µM ADV to assess selective pressures of multi-drug treatment. A novel parameter inference procedure, based on a stochastic viral growth model, was used to estimate phenotypic resistance and fitness from in vitro combination passage experiments. RESULTS: Newly developed mathematical methods estimated key phenotypic parameters of mutations arising through selective pressure exerted by 3 TC and NVP. Concentrations of 1 µM 3 TC maintained the M184V mutation, which was associated with intrinsic fitness deficits. Increasing NVP concentrations selected major NNRTI resistance mutations. The evolutionary pathway of NVP resistance was highly dependent on the viral genetic background, epistasis as well as stochasticity. Parameter estimation indicated that the previously unrecognized mutation L228Q was associated with NVP resistance in some isolates. CONCLUSION: Serial passage of viruses in the presence of multiple drugs may resemble the selection of mutations observed among treated individuals and populations in vivo and indicate evolutionary preferences and restrictions. Phenotypic resistance estimated here "in silico" from in vitro passage experiments agreed well with previous knowledge, suggesting that the unique combination of "wet-" and "dry-lab" experimentation may improve our understanding of HIV-1 resistance evolution in the future.

Persistence versus reversion of 3TC resistance in HIV-1 determine the rate of emergence of NVP resistance.

When HIV-1 is exposed to lamivudine (3TC) at inhibitory concentrations, resistant variants carrying the reverse transcriptase (RT) substitution M184V emerge rapidly. This substitution confers high-level 3TC resistance and increased RT fidelity. We established a novel in vitro system to study the effect of starting nevirapine (NVP) in 3TC-resistant/NNRTI-naïve clinical isolates, and the impact of maintaining versus dropping 3TC pressure in this setting. Because M184V mutant HIV-1 seems hypersusceptible to adefovir (ADV), we also tested the effect of ADV pressure on the same isolates. We draw four conclusions from our experiments simulating combination therapy in vitro. (1) The presence of low-dose (1 µM) 3TC prevented reversal to wild-type from an M184V mutant background. (2) Adding low-dose 3TC in the presence of NVP delayed the selection of NVP-associated mutations. (3) The presence of ADV, in addition to NVP, led to more rapid reversal to wild-type at position 184 than NVP alone. (4) ADV plus NVP selected for greater numbers of mutations than NVP alone. Inference about the "selection of mutation" is based on two statistical models, one at the viral level, more telling, and the other at the level of predominance of mutation within a population. Multidrug pressure experiments lend understanding to mechanisms of HIV resistance as they bear upon new treatment strategies.