Assessing the Relative Climate Impact of Carbon Utilization for Concrete, Chemical, and Mineral Production.

Estimates show that 6.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) can be captured and utilized across three pathways, concrete, chemical, and minerals, by 2050. However, it is difficult to compare the climate benefit across these three carbon capture and utilization (CCU) pathways to determine the most effective use of captured CO2. The life cycle assessment methods to evaluate the climate benefit of CCU chemicals should additionally account for the change in material properties of concrete due to CO2 utilization. Furthermore, with most CO2 utilization technologies being in the early stages of research and development, the uncertainty and variability in process and inventory data present a significant challenge in evaluating the climate benefit. We present a stochastically determined climate return on investment (ROI) metric to rank and prioritize CO2 utilization across 20 concrete, chemical and mineral pathways based on the realized climate benefit. We show that two concrete pathways, which use CO2 during concrete mixing, and two chemical pathways, which produce formic acid through hydrogenation of CO2 and carbon monoxide through dry reforming of methane, generate the greatest climate ROI and are the only CCU pathways with a higher likelihood of generating a climate benefit than a climate burden.

Novel Method of Sensitivity Analysis Improves the Prioritization of Research in Anticipatory Life Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies.

It is now common practice in environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to conduct sensitivity analyses to identify critical parameters and prioritize further research. Typical approaches include variation of input parameters one at a time to determine the corresponding variation in characterized midpoints or normalized and weighted end points. Generally, those input parameters that cause the greatest variations in output criteria are accepted as the most important subjects of further investigation. However, in comparative LCA of emerging technologies, the typical approach to sensitivity analysis may misdirect research and development (R&D) toward addressing uncertainties that are inconsequential or counterproductive. This paper presents a novel method of sensitivity analysis for a decision-driven, anticipatory LCA of three emerging photovoltaic (PV) technologies: amorphous-Si (a-Si), CdTe and ribbon-Si. Although traditional approaches identify metal depletion as critical, a hypothetical reduction of uncertainty in metal depletion fails to improve confidence in the environmental comparison. By contrast, the novel approach directs attention toward marine eutrophication, where uncertainty reduction significantly improves decision confidence in the choice between a-Si and CdTe. The implication is that the novel method will result in better recommendations on the choice of the environmentally preferable emerging technology alternative for commercialization.

Intertemporal cumulative radiative forcing effects of photovoltaic deployments.

Current policies accelerating photovoltaics (PV) deployments are motivated by environmental goals, including reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by displacing electricity generated from fossil-fuels. Existing practice assesses environmental benefits on a net life-cycle basis, where displaced GHG emissions offset those generated during PV production. However, this approach does not consider that the environmental costs of GHG release during production are incurred early, while environmental benefits accrue later. Thus, where policy targets suggest meeting GHG reduction goals established by a certain date, rapid PV deployment may have counterintuitive, albeit temporary, undesired consequences. On a cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) basis, the environmental improvements attributable to PV might be realized much later than is currently understood, particularly when PV manufacturing utilizes GHG-intensive energy sources (e.g., coal), but deployment occurs in areas with less GHG-intensive electricity sources (e.g., hydroelectric). This paper details a dynamic CRF model to examine the intertemporal warming impacts of PV deployments in California and Wyoming. CRF payback times are longer than GHG payback times by 6-12 years in California and 6-11 years in Wyoming depending on the PV technology mix and deployment strategy. For the same PV capacity being deployed, early installations yield greater CRF benefits (calculated over 10 and 25 years) than installations occurring later in time. Further, CRF benefits are maximized when PV technologies with the lowest manufacturing GHG footprint (cadmium telluride) are deployed in locations with the most GHG-intensive grids (i.e., Wyoming).

Illustrating anticipatory life cycle assessment for emerging photovoltaic technologies.

Current research policy and strategy documents recommend applying life cycle assessment (LCA) early in research and development (R&D) to guide emerging technologies toward decreased environmental burden. However, existing LCA practices are ill-suited to support these recommendations. Barriers related to data availability, rapid technology change, and isolation of environmental from technical research inhibit application of LCA to developing technologies. Overcoming these challenges requires methodological advances that help identify environmental opportunities prior to large R&D investments. Such an anticipatory approach to LCA requires synthesis of social, environmental, and technical knowledge beyond the capabilities of current practices. This paper introduces a novel framework for anticipatory LCA that incorporates technology forecasting, risk research, social engagement, and comparative impact assessment, then applies this framework to photovoltaic (PV) technologies. These examples illustrate the potential for anticipatory LCA to prioritize research questions and help guide environmentally responsible innovation of emerging technologies.

A critical review of the circular economy for lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaic modules - status, challenges, and opportunities.

To meet net-zero emissions and cost targets for power production, recent analysis indicates that photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the United States could exceed 1 TW by 2050 alongside comparable levels of energy storage capacity, mostly from batteries. For comparison, the total U.S. utility-scale power capacity from all energy sources in 2020 was 1.2 TW, of which solar satisfied approximately 3%. With such massive scales of deployment, questions have arisen regarding issues of material supply for manufacturing, end-of-life management of technologies, environmental impacts across the life cycle, and economic costs to both individual consumers and society at large. A set of solutions to address these issues center on the development of a circular economy - shifting from a take-make-waste linear economic model to one that retains the value of materials and products as long as possible, recovering materials at end of life to recirculate back into the economy. With limited global experience, scholars and practitioners have begun to investigate circular economy pathways, focusing on applying novel technologies and analytical methods to fast-growing sectors like renewable energy. This critical review aims to synthesize the growing literature to identify key insights, gaps, and opportunities for research and implementation of a circular economy for two of the leading technologies that enable the transition to a renewable energy economy: solar PV and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). We apply state-of-the-science systematic literature review procedures to critically analyze over 3,000 publications on the circular economy of solar PV and LIBs, categorizing those that pass a series of objective screens in ways that can illuminate the current state of the art, highlight existing impediments to a circular economy, and recommend future technological and analytical research. We conclude that while neither PV nor LIB industries have reached a circular economy, they are both on a path towards increased circularity. Based on our assessment of the state of current literature and scientific understanding, we recommend research move beyond its prior emphasis on recycling technology development to more comprehensively investigate other CE strategies, more holistically consider economic, environmental and policy aspects of CE strategies, increase leveraging of digital information systems that can support acceleration towards a CE, and to continue to study CE-related aspects of LIB and PV markets.

Carbon dioxide utilization in concrete curing or mixing might not produce a net climate benefit.

Carbon capture and utilization for concrete production (CCU concrete) is estimated to sequester 0.1 to 1.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) by 2050. However, existing estimates do not account for the CO2 impact from the capture, transport and utilization of CO2, change in compressive strength in CCU concrete and uncertainty and variability in CCU concrete production processes. By accounting for these factors, we determine the net CO2 benefit when CCU concrete produced from CO2 curing and mixing substitutes for conventional concrete. The results demonstrate a higher likelihood of the net CO2 benefit of CCU concrete being negative i.e. there is a net increase in CO2 in 56 to 68 of 99 published experimental datasets depending on the CO2 source. Ensuring an increase in compressive strength from CO2 curing and mixing and decreasing the electricity used in CO2 curing are promising strategies to increase the net CO2 benefit from CCU concrete.

The impact of photovoltaic (PV) installations on downwind particulate matter concentrations: Results from field observations at a 550-MWAC utility-scale PV plant.

With utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) projects increasingly developed in dry and dust-prone geographies with high solar insolation, there is a critical need to analyze the impacts of PV installations on the resulting particulate matter (PM) concentrations, which have environmental and health impacts. This study is the first to quantify the impact of a utility-scale PV plant on PM concentrations downwind of the project site. Background, construction, and post-construction PM2.5 and PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameters <2.5 and <10 µm, respectively) concentration data were collected from four beta attenuation monitor (BAM) stations over 3 yr. Based on these data, the authors evaluate the hypothesis that PM emissions from land occupied by a utility-scale PV installation are reduced after project construction through a wind-shielding effect. The results show that the (1) confidence intervals of the mean PM concentrations during construction overlap with or are lower than background concentrations for three of the four BAM stations; and (2) post-construction PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations downwind of the PV installation are significantly lower than the background concentrations at three of the four BAM stations. At the fourth BAM station, downwind post-construction PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations increased marginally by 5.7% and 2.6% of the 24-hr ambient air quality standards defined by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, respectively, when compared with background concentrations, with the PM2.5 increase being statistically insignificant. This increase may be due to vehicular emissions from an access road near the southwest corner of the site or a drainage berm near the south station. The findings demonstrate the overall environmental benefit of downwind PM emission abatement from a utility-scale PV installation in desert conditions due to wind shielding. With PM emission reductions observed within 10 months of completion of construction, post-construction monitoring of downwind PM levels may be reduced to a 1-yr period for other projects with similar soil and weather conditions. IMPLICATIONS: This study is the first to analyze impact of a utility photovoltaic (PV) project on downwind particulate matter (PM) concentration in desert conditions. The PM data were collected at four beta attenuation monitor stations over a 3-yr period. The post-construction PM concentrations are lower than background concentrations at three of four stations, therefore supporting the hypothesis of post-construction wind shielding from PV installations. With PM emission reductions observed within 10 months of completion of construction, postconstruction monitoring of downwind PM levels may be reduced to a 1-yr period for other PV projects with similar soil and weather conditions.