District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Changing Places and Partners: Associations of Neighborhood Conditions With Sexual Network Turnover Among African American Adults Relocated From Public Housing.

Neighborhood conditions and sexual network turnover have been associated with the acquisition of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). However, few studies investigate the influence of neighborhood conditions on sexual network turnover. This longitudinal study used data collected across 7 visits from a predominantly substance-misusing cohort of 172 African American adults relocated from public housing in Atlanta, Georgia, to determine whether post-relocation changes in exposure to neighborhood conditions influence sexual network stability, the number of new partners joining sexual networks, and the number of partners leaving sexual networks over time. At each visit, participant and sexual network characteristics were captured via survey, and administrative data were analyzed to describe the census tracts where participants lived. Multilevel models were used to longitudinally assess the relationships of tract-level characteristics to sexual network dynamics over time. On average, participants relocated to neighborhoods that were less economically deprived and violent, and had lower alcohol outlet densities. Post-relocation reductions in exposure to alcohol outlet density were associated with fewer new partners joining sexual networks. Reduced perceived community violence was associated with more sexual partners leaving sexual networks. These associations were marginally significant. No post-relocation changes in place characteristics were significantly associated with overall sexual network stability. Neighborhood social context may influence sexual network turnover. To increase understanding of the social-ecological determinants of HIV/STIs, a new line of research should investigate the combined influence of neighborhood conditions and sexual network dynamics on HIV/STI transmission over time.

Changes in Exposure to Neighborhood Characteristics are Associated with Sexual Network Characteristics in a Cohort of Adults Relocating from Public Housing.

Ecologic and cross-sectional multilevel analyses suggest that characteristics of the places where people live influence their vulnerability to HIV and other sexually-transmitted infections (STIs). Using data from a predominately substance-misusing cohort of African-American adults relocating from US public housing complexes, this multilevel longitudinal study tested the hypothesis that participants who experienced greater post-relocation improvements in economic disadvantage, violent crime, and male:female sex ratios would experience greater reductions in perceived partner risk and in the odds of having a partner who had another partner (i.e., indirect concurrency). Baseline data were collected from 172 public housing residents before relocations occurred; three waves of post-relocation data were collected every 9 months. Participants who experienced greater improvements in community violence and in economic conditions experienced greater reductions in partner risk. Reduced community violence was associated with reduced indirect concurrency. Structural interventions that decrease exposure to violence and economic disadvantage may reduce vulnerability to HIV/STIs.

Acceptability and feasibility of tests for infection, serological testing, and photography to define need for interventions against trachoma.

BACKGROUND: Trachoma causes blindness due to repeated conjunctival infection by Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct). Transmission intensity is estimated, for programmatic decision-making, by prevalence of the clinical sign trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years. Research into complementary indicators to field-graded TF includes work on conjunctival photography, tests for ocular Ct infection, and serology. The perceived acceptability and feasibility of these indicators among a variety of stakeholders is unknown. METHODOLOGY: Focus group discussions (FGDs) with community members and in-depth interviews (IDIs) with public health practitioners in Tanzania were conducted. FGDs explored themes including participants' experience with, and thoughts about, different diagnostic approaches. The framework method for content analysis was used. IDIs yielded lists of perceived strengths of, and barriers to, implementation for programmatic use of each indicator. These were used to form an online quantitative survey on complementary indicators distributed to global stakeholders via meetings, mailing lists, and social media posts. RESULTS: Sixteen FGDs and 11 IDIs were conducted in October-November 2022. In general, all proposed sample methods were deemed acceptable by community members. Common themes included not wanting undue discomfort and a preference for tests perceived as accurate. Health workers noted the importance of community education for some sample types. The online survey was conducted in April-May 2023 with 98 starting the questionnaire and 81 completing it. Regarding barriers to implementing diagnostics, the highest agreement items related to feasibility, rather than acceptability. No evidence of significant differences was found in responses pertaining to community acceptability based on participant characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: All of the indicators included were generally deemed acceptable by all stakeholders in Tanzania, although community education around the benefits and risks of different sample types, as well as addressing issues around feasibility, will be key to successful, sustainable integration of these indicators into trachoma programs.

Prevalence of Trachoma in 72 Districts of Afghanistan in 2018-2019: Results of 35 Population-based Prevalence Surveys.

BACKGROUND: To determine where interventions are needed to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem, prevalence data are needed. We aimed to generate baseline population-based data on trachoma prevalence in suspected-endemic areas of Afghanistan. METHODS: Cross-sectional population-based prevalence surveys designed according to World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations were conducted in 35 evaluation units (EUs) covering 72 districts. In selected households, all resident individuals aged ≥1 year were examined for trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) according to the WHO simplified trachoma grading system. Water, sanitation and hygiene access was assessed in households of survey participants. RESULTS: 104,104 people aged ≥1 year were examined, including 43,774 children aged 1-9 years and 46,439 people aged ≥15 years. The age-adjusted prevalence of TF in 1-9-year-olds was ≥5% in 3 EUs, with the highest EU TF prevalence being 7.8%. The age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in ≥15-year-olds was <0.2% in all EUs. The majority of households had access to an improved water source within 30 minutes of the house. However, only a minority of households had an improved latrine and/or a handwash station. CONCLUSIONS: Trachoma is not a public health problem in the majority of EUs surveyed. However, antibiotic mass drug administration, promotion of facial cleanliness and environmental improvement (the A, F and E components of the SAFE strategy) are needed for trachoma elimination purposes in three of the EUs surveyed in Afghanistan.

Forecasting the elimination of active trachoma: An empirical model.

BACKGROUND: Great progress has been made toward the elimination of trachoma as a public-health problem. Mathematical and statistical models have been used to forecast when the program will attain the goal of the elimination of active trachoma, defined as prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular in 1-9 year olds (TF1-9) <5%. Here we use program data to create an empirical model predicting the year of attaining global elimination of TF1-9. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We calculated the mean number of years (95% CI) observed for an implementation unit (IU) to move from a baseline TF1-9 prevalence ≥5% to the elimination threshold, based on the region (Ethiopia vs. non-Ethiopia) and baseline prevalence category. Ethiopia IUs had significantly different rates of reaching the TF1-9 elimination threshold after a trachoma impact survey (TIS) compared to non-Ethiopia IUs across all baseline categories. We used those estimates to predict when remaining active trachoma-endemic IUs (TF1-9 ≥5%) would have their last round of mass drug administration (MDA) based on the mean number of years required and number of MDA rounds already completed. Our model predicts that elimination of TF1-9 will be achieved in 2028 in Ethiopia (95% CI: 2026-2033) and 2029 outside of Ethiopia (95% CI: 2023-2034), with some IUs in East Africa predicted to be the last requiring MDA globally. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our empirical estimate is similar to those resulting from previous susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) and mathematical models, suggesting that the forecast achievement of TF1-9 elimination is realistic with the caveat that although disease elimination progress can be predicted for most IUs, there is an important minority of IUs that is not declining or has not yet started trachoma elimination activities. These IUs represent an important barrier to the timely global elimination of active trachoma.

Associated factors of the co-occurrence of trachoma and soil-transmitted helminthiases in children 1 to 9 years old in rural communities of the Amazon basin in Loreto Department, Peru: Results from a population-based survey.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence of the occurrence of trachoma in Peru, and studies have shown that soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) are affecting rural communities in the Amazon basin in Loreto Department. This study was done to estimate trachoma prevalence, STH prevalence, and the associated factors for both diseases in children aged 1-9 years in rural communities of Peru. METHODOLOGY: A population-based cross-sectional survey was carried out in rural communities of Loreto. A standardized survey questionnaire with individual and household risk factors related to both diseases was used. Ocular examination was done for all participants aged one year and above, and eye swab samples were collected from children with follicular trachoma (TF). Anthropometric measurements, stool samples for STH, and blood samples for hemoglobin measurement were taken from children. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: TF prevalence was 7.74% (95% CI 5.08-11.63%), STH prevalence was 49.49% (95% CI 25.00-52.43%), and prevalence of co-occurrence of both diseases was 5.06% (95% CI 2.80-8.98%) in children aged 1-9 years. Being at age 3-8 years old (AOR = 6.76; 95% CI 1.346-33.947), have an unclean face (AOR = 24.64; 95% CI 6.787-89.444), and having been dewormed in the last six months (AOR = 2.47; 95% CI 1.106-5.514), were risk factors of TF. Being a female (AOR = 0.22; 95% CI 0.103-0.457) was associated with decreased odds of TF. Having been dewormed in the last six months (AOR = 0.30; 95% CI 0.139-0.628) was a preventative factor for STH. Risk factors for children with both diseases mirrored the findings for risk factors for individual diseases. CONCLUSIONS: Neglected tropical diseases and associated risk factors overlap in communities living in vulnerable conditions in the Amazon basin of Peru. These findings support the need to implement integrated interventions, including mass drug administration, water, sanitation, and hygiene for both diseases in the study area.

Global progress toward the elimination of active trachoma: an analysis of 38 countries.

BACKGROUND: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem was targeted for 2020. We reviewed progress towards the elimination of active trachoma by country and geographical group. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of national survey and implementation data, all countries ever known to be endemic for trachoma that had either implemented at least one trachoma impact survey shown in the publicly available Trachoma Atlas, or are in Africa were invited to participate in this study. Scale-up was described according to the number of known endemic implementation units and mass drug administration implementation over time. The prevalence of active trachoma-follicular among children aged 1-9 years (TF1-9) from baseline, impact, and surveillance surveys was categorised and used to show programme progress towards reaching the elimination threshold (TF1-9 <5%) using dot maps, spaghetti plots, and boxplots. FINDINGS: We included data until Nov 10, 2021, for 38 countries, representing 2097 ever-endemic implementation units. Of these, 1923 (91·7%) have had mass drug administration. Of 1731 implementation units with a trachoma impact survey, the prevalence of TF1-9 had reduced by at least 50% in 1465 (84·6%) implementation units and 1182 (56·4%) of 2097 ever-endemic implementation units had reached the elimination threshold. 2 years after reaching a TF1-9 prevalence below 5%, most implementation units sustained this target; however, 58 (56·3%) of 103 implementation units in Ethiopia showed recrudescence. INTERPRETATION: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2020 was not possible, but this finding masks the great progress achieved. Implementation units in high baseline categories and recrudescent TF1-9 might prolong the attainment of elimination of active trachoma. Elimination is delayed but, with an understanding of the patterns and timelines to reaching elimination targets and a commitment toward meeting future targets, global elimination can still be achieved by 2030. FUNDING: None.

The Importance of Failure: How Doing Impact Surveys That Fail Saves Trachoma Programs Money.

Trachoma programs use annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) in evaluation units (EUs) that generally encompass 100,000-250,000 people. After one, three, or five MDA rounds, programs undertake impact surveys. Where impact survey prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in 1- to 9-year-olds is ≥ 5%, ≥ 1 additional MDA rounds are recommended before resurvey. Impact survey costs, and the proportion of impact surveys returning TF prevalence ≥ 5% (the failure rate or, less pejoratively, the MDA continuation rate), therefore influence the cost of eliminating trachoma. We modeled, for illustrative EU sizes, the financial cost of undertaking MDA with and without conducting impact surveys. As an example, we retrospectively assessed how conducting impact surveys affected costs in the United Republic of Tanzania for 2017-2018. For EUs containing 100,000 people, the median (interquartile range) cost of continuing MDA without doing impact surveys is USD 28,957 (17,581-36,197) per EU per year, whereas continuing MDA solely where indicated by impact survey results costs USD 17,564 (12,158-21,694). If the mean EU population is 100,000, then continuing MDA without impact surveys becomes advantageous in financial cost terms only when the continuation rate exceeds 71%. For the United Republic of Tanzania in 2017-2018, doing impact surveys saved enough money to provide MDA for > 1,000,000 people. Although trachoma impact surveys have a nontrivial cost, they generally save money, providing EUs have > 50,000 inhabitants, the continuation rate is not excessive, and they generate reliable data. If all EUs pass their impact surveys, then we have waited too long to do them.

Completing Baseline Mapping of Trachoma in Uganda: Results of 14 Population-Based Prevalence Surveys Conducted in 2014 and 2018.

PURPOSE: We aimed to estimate the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years, trichiasis in adults aged ≥15 years, and water and sanitation (WASH) indicators in 12 suspected-endemic districts in Uganda. METHODS: Surveys were undertaken in 14 evaluation units (EUs) covering 12 districts. Districts were selected based on a desk review in 2014 (four districts) and trachoma rapid assessments in 2018 (eight districts). We calculated that 1,019 children aged 1-9 years were needed in each EU to estimate TF prevalence with acceptable precision and used three-stage cluster sampling to select 30 households in each of 28 (2014 surveys) or 24 (2018 surveys) villages. Participants living in selected households aged ≥1 year were examined for trachoma; thus enabling estimation of prevalences of TF in 1-9 year-olds and trichiasis in ≥15 year-olds. Household-level WASH access data were also collected. RESULTS: A total of 11,796 households were surveyed; 22,465 children aged 1-9 years and 24,652 people aged ≥15 years were examined. EU-level prevalence of TF ranged from 0.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.1-0.7) to 3.9% (95% CI 2.1-5.8). EU-level trichiasis prevalence ranged from 0.01% (95% CI 0-0.11) to 0.81% (95% CI 0.35-1.50). Overall proportions of households with improved drinking water source, water source in yard or within 1km, and improved sanitation facilities were 88.1%, 23.0% and 23.9%, respectively. CONCLUSION: TF was not a public health problem in any of the 14 EUs surveyed: antibiotic mass drug administration is not required in these districts. However, in four EUs, trichiasis prevalence was ≥ 0.2%, so public health-level trichiasis surgery interventions are warranted. These findings will facilitate planning for elimination of trachoma in Uganda.

Field evaluation of a schistosome circulating cathodic antigen rapid test kit at point-of-care for mapping of schistosomiasis endemic districts in The Gambia.

BACKGROUND: Studies in Sub Saharan Africa have shown that the Circulating Cathodic Antigen point-of-care-test (POC-CCA) is more accurate in the detections of S. mansoni than the microscopic Kato-Katz technique but less is known about the accuracy of this rapid test in detecting S. haematobium infections. This study was intended to evaluate the field accuracy of POC-CCA as a rapid test kit for schistosomiasis mapping in The Gambia. METHODS: This prospective study was conducted in 4 regions in the country. Ten schools were randomly selected from each region, and a total of 2018 participants whose ages range from 7 to 14 years were enrolled in the study. Stool and urine samples were collected from each participant from May to June 2015, and tested for S. haematobium and S. mansoni infections in field and laboratory settings. The tests conducted included POC-CCA, double Kato-Katz slides, urine filtration and dipstick for hematuria. RESULTS: Of the 1954 participants that had complete data, the mean age of participants was 9.9 years. The prevalence of children infected with S. haematobium, using urine filtration technique was 10.1% (95% CI: 8.87-11.55). Central River Region had the highest level of urinary schistosomiasis with a prevalence of 28.0% (24.13-32.12).The lowest urinary schistosomiasis prevalence of 0.6% (0.12-1.86) was found in Lower River Region and North Bank Region had no cases of schistosomiasis detected. Only 5 participants were infected with S. mansoni. Using urine filtration as reference standard for the detection of S. haematobium, the sensitivity and specificity of POC-CCA was 47.7% and 75.8%. Whilst sensitivity and specificity of POC-CCA for detecting S. mansoni were 60.0% and 71.2% using double Kato-Katz as reference standard. CONCLUSION: This study showed lower sensitivity of POC-CCA in detecting S. haematobium. Therefore POC-CCA is less useful for rapid diagnosis of urinary schistosomiasis.

Partnering for impact: Integrated transmission assessment surveys for lymphatic filariasis, soil transmitted helminths and malaria in Haiti.

BACKGROUND: Since 2001, Haiti's National Program for the Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (NPELF) has worked to reduce the transmission of lymphatic filariasis (LF) through annual mass drug administration (MDA) with diethylcarbamazine and albendazole. The NPELF reached full national coverage with MDA for LF in 2012, and by 2014, a total of 14 evaluation units (48 communes) had met WHO eligibility criteria to conduct LF transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to determine whether prevalence had been reduced to below a threshold, such that transmission is assumed to be no longer sustainable. Haiti is also endemic for malaria and many communities suffer a high burden of soil transmitted helminths (STH). Heeding the call from WHO for integration of neglected tropical diseases (NTD) activities, Haiti's NPELF worked with the national malaria control program (NMCP) and with partners to develop an integrated TAS (LF-STH-malaria) to include assessments for malaria and STH. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of using TAS surveys for LF as a platform to collect information about STH and malaria. Between November 2014 and June 2015, TAS were conducted in 14 evaluation units (EUs) including 1 TAS (LF-only), 1 TAS-STH-malaria, and 12 TAS-malaria, with a total of 16,655 children tested for LF, 14,795 tested for malaria, and 298 tested for STH. In all, 12 of the 14 EUs passed the LF TAS, allowing the program to stop MDA for LF in 44 communes. The EU where children were also tested for STH will require annual school-based treatment with albendazole to maintain reduced STH levels. Finally, only 12 of 14,795 children tested positive for malaria by RDT in 38 communes. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Haiti's 2014-2015 Integrated TAS surveys provide evidence of the feasibility of using the LF TAS as a platform for integration of assessments for STH and or malaria.

People and places: Relocating to neighborhoods with better economic and social conditions is associated with less risky drug/alcohol network characteristics among African American adults in Atlanta, GA.

BACKGROUND: Few studies assess whether place characteristics are associated with social network characteristics that create vulnerability to substance use. METHODS: This longitudinal study analyzed 7 waves of data (2009-2014) from a predominantly substance-using cohort of 172 African American adults relocated from public housing complexes in Atlanta, GA, to determine whether post-relocation changes in exposure to neighborhood conditions were associated with four network characteristics related to substance use: number of social network members who used illicit drugs or alcohol in excess in the past six months ("drug/alcohol network"), drug/alcohol network stability, and turnover into and out of drug/alcohol networks. Individual- and network-level characteristics were captured via survey and administrative data were used to describe census tracts where participants lived. Multilevel models were used to assess relationships of census tract-level characteristics to network outcomes over time. RESULTS: On average, participants relocated to census tracts that had less economic disadvantage, social disorder, and renter-occupied housing. Post-relocation reductions in exposure to economic disadvantage were associated with fewer drug/alcohol network members and less turnover into drug/alcohol networks. Post-relocation improvements in exposure to multiple census tract-level social conditions and reductions in perceived community violence were associated with fewer drug/alcohol network members, less turnover into drug/alcohol networks, less drug/alcohol network stability, and more turnover out of drug/alcohol networks. CONCLUSION: Relocating to neighborhoods with less economic disadvantage and better social conditions may weaken relationships with substance-using individuals.