Climate change and commercial fishing practices codetermine survival of a long-lived seabird.

Understanding the environmental mechanisms that govern population change is a fundamental objective in ecology. Although the determination of how top-down and bottom-up drivers affect demography is important, it is often equally critical to understand the extent to which, environmental conditions that underpin these drivers fluctuate across time. For example, associations between climate and both food availability and predation risk may suggest the presence of trophic interactions that may influence inferences made from patterns in ecological data. Analytical tools have been developed to account for these correlations, while providing opportunities to ask novel questions regarding how populations change across space and time. Here, we combine two modeling disciplines-path analysis and mark-recapture-recovery models-to explore whether shifts in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) influenced top-down (entanglement in fishing equipment) or bottom-up (forage fish production) population constraints over 60 years, and the extent to which these covarying processes shaped the survival of a long-lived seabird, the Royal tern. We found that hemispheric trends in SST were associated with variation in the amount of fish harvested along the Atlantic coast of North America and in the Caribbean, whereas reductions in forage fish production were mostly driven by shifts in the amount of fish harvested by commercial fisheries throughout the North Atlantic the year prior. Although the indirect (i.e., stock depletion) and direct (i.e., entanglement) impacts of commercial fishing on Royal tern mortality has declined over the last 60 years, increased SSTs during this time period has resulted in a comparable increase in mortality risk, which disproportionately impacted the survival of the youngest age-classes of Royal terns. Given climate projections for the North Atlantic, our results indicate that threats to Royal tern population persistence in the Mid-Atlantic will most likely be driven by failures to recruit juveniles into the breeding population.

Reproductive senescence and mating tactic interact and conflict to drive reproductive success in a passerine.

An understanding of the drivers of individual fitness is a fundamental component of evolutionary ecology and life-history theory. Reproductive senescence, mate and mating tactic choice and latent heterogeneity in individual quality interact to affect individual fitness. We sought to disentangle the effects of these fitness drivers, where longitudinal data are required to understand their respective impacts. We used reproductive allocation and success data from a long-term (1989-2018) study of white-throated dippers Cinclus cinclus in Switzerland to simultaneously examine the effects of female and male age, mating tactic, nest initiation date and individual heterogeneity on reproductive performance. We modelled quadratic and categorical effects of age on reproductive parameters. The probability of polygyny increased with age in both sexes before declining in older age classes. Similarly, hatching probability in monogamous pairs and the number of nestlings hatched in both monogamous and polygynous pairs increased with female age before declining later in life. As predicted, offspring survival in monogamous pairs increased with male age before declining in older age classes, but male age had no effect on offspring survival in polygynous nesting attempts. Our results demonstrate that parental age, mating tactic and individual heterogeneity all affect reproductive success, and that the impacts of senescent decline are expressed across different demographic components as a function of sex-specific senescent decline and mating tactic.

Density-dependence produces spurious relationships among demographic parameters in a harvested species.

Harvest of wild organisms is an important component of human culture, economy, and recreation, but can also put species at risk of extinction. Decisions that guide successful management actions therefore rely on the ability of researchers to link changes in demographic processes to the anthropogenic actions or environmental changes that underlie variation in demographic parameters. Ecologists often use population models or maximum sustained yield curves to estimate the impacts of harvest on wildlife and fish populations. Applications of these models usually focus exclusively on the impact of harvest and often fail to consider adequately other potential, often collinear, mechanistic drivers of the observed relationships between harvest and demographic rates. In this study, we used an integrated population model and long-term data (1973-2016) to examine the relationships among hunting and natural mortality, the number of hunters, habitat conditions, and population size of blue-winged teal Spatula discors, an abundant North American dabbling duck with a relatively fast-paced life history strategy. Over the last two and a half decades of the study, teal abundance tripled, hunting mortality probability increased slightly ( < 0.02 ), and natural mortality probability increased substantially ( > 0.1 ) at greater population densities. We demonstrate strong density-dependent effects on natural mortality and fecundity as population density increased, indicative of compensatory harvest mortality and compensatory natality. Critically, an analysis that only assessed the relationship between survival and hunting mortality would spuriously indicate depensatory mortality due to multicollinearity between abundance, natural mortality and hunting mortality. Our findings demonstrate that models that only consider the direct effect of hunting on survival or natural mortality can fail to accurately assess the mechanistic impact of hunting on population dynamics due to multicollinearity among demographic drivers. This multicollinearity limits inference and may have strong impacts on applied management actions globally.

A hierarchical model for jointly assessing ecological and anthropogenic impacts on animal demography.

The management of sustainable harvest of animal populations is of great ecological and conservation importance. Development of formal quantitative tools to estimate and mitigate the impacts of harvest on animal populations has positively impacted conservation efforts. The vast majority of existing harvest models, however, do not simultaneously estimate ecological and harvest impacts on demographic parameters and population trends. Given that the impacts of ecological drivers are often equal to or greater than the effects of harvest, and can covary with harvest, this disconnect has the potential to lead to flawed inference. In this study, we used Bayesian hierarchical models and a 43-year capture-mark-recovery dataset from 404,241 female mallards Anas platyrhynchos released in the North American midcontinent to estimate mallard demographic parameters. Furthermore, we model the dynamics of waterfowl hunters and habitat, and the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic and ecological processes on mallard demographic parameters. We demonstrate that density dependence, habitat conditions and harvest can simultaneously impact demographic parameters of female mallards, and discuss implications for existing and future harvest management models. Our results demonstrate the importance of controlling for multicollinearity among demographic drivers in harvest management models, and provide evidence for multiple mechanisms that lead to partial compensation of mallard harvest. We provide a novel model structure to assess these relationships that may allow for improved inference and prediction in future iterations of harvest management models across taxa.

Mate fidelity improves survival and breeding propensity of a long-lived bird.

Evolutionary and behavioural ecologists have long been interested in factors shaping the variation in mating behaviour observed in nature. Although much of the research on this topic has focused on the consequences of mate choice and mate change on annual reproductive success, studies of a potential positive link between mate fidelity and adult demographic rates have been comparatively rare. This is particularly true for long-lived birds with multi-year, socially monogamous pair bonds. We used a 26-year capture-mark-recapture dataset of 3,330 black brent Branta bernicla nigricans to test whether breeding with a familiar mate improved future breeding propensity and survival. We predicted that experienced breeders nesting with a new partner would have rates of survival similar to familiar pairs because long-lived species avoid jeopardizing survival since their lifetime fitness is sensitive to this vital rate. In contrast, we expected that any costs of breeding with a new partner would be paid through skipping the subsequent breeding attempt. We found that unfamiliar pairs had lower subsequent breeding propensity than faithful partners. However, contrary to our expectations, individuals breeding with a new mate also suffered reduced survival. These results add to a small number of studies indicating that a positive relationship between mate retention and adult demographic rates may exist in a diverse array of avian species. Given these results, researchers should consider costs of mate change that extend beyond within-season reproductive success to fully understand the potential adaptive basis for perennial social monogamy. We caution that if mate retention enhances survival prospects, improvements in annual reproductive success with pair-bond length could be a secondary factor favouring perennial social monogamy, particularly in species with slower life-history strategies. Furthermore, some cases where annual reproductive success does not improve with pair-bond duration, yet multi-year pair bonds are common, could be explained by benefits afforded by mate fidelity to adult vital rates.

Long-term research and hierarchical models reveal consistent fitness costs of being the last egg in a clutch.

Maintenance of phenotypic heterogeneity in the face of strong selection is an important component of evolutionary ecology, as are the consequences of such heterogeneity. Organisms may experience diminishing returns of increased reproductive allocation as clutch or litter size increases, affecting current and residual reproductive success. Given existing uncertainty regarding trade-offs between the quantity and quality of offspring, we sought to examine the potential for diminishing returns on increased reproductive allocation in a long-lived species of goose, with a particular emphasis on the effect of position in the laying sequence on offspring quality. To better understand the effects of maternal allocation on offspring survival and growth, we estimated the effects of egg size, timing of breeding, inter- and intra-annual variation, and position in the laying sequence on gosling survival and growth rates of black brant Branta bernicla nigricans breeding in western Alaska from 1987 to 2007. We found that gosling growth rates and survival decreased with position in the laying sequence, regardless of clutch size. Mean egg volume of the clutch a gosling originated from had a positive effect on gosling survival (ß = 0.095, 95% CRI: 0.024, 0.165) and gosling growth rates (ß = 0.626, 95% CRI: 0.469, 0.738). Gosling survival (ß = -0.146, 95% CRI: -0.214, -0.079) and growth rates (ß = -1.286, 95% CRI: -1.435, -1.132) were negatively related to hatching date. These findings indicate substantial heterogeneity in offspring quality associated with their position in the laying sequence. They also potentially suggest a trade-off mechanism for females whose total reproductive investment is governed by pre-breeding state.

Brood Size Affects Future Reproduction in a Long-Lived Bird with Precocial Young.

Estimation of trade-offs between current reproduction and future survival and fecundity of long-lived vertebrates is essential to understanding factors that shape optimal reproductive investment. Black brant geese (Branta bernicla nigricans) fledge more goslings, on average, when their broods are experimentally enlarged to be greater than the most common clutch size of four eggs. Thus, we hypothesized that the lesser frequency of brant clutches exceeding four eggs results, at least partially, from a future reduction in survival, breeding probability, or clutch size for females tending larger broods. We used an 8-year mark-recapture data set (Barker robust design) with 5 years of clutch and brood manipulations to estimate long-term consequences of reproductive decisions in brant. We did not find evidence of a trade-off between reproductive effort and true survival or future initiation date and clutch size. Rather, future breeding probability was maximized ( 0.92±0.03 [SE]) for manipulated females tending broods of four goslings and was lower for females tending smaller (one gosling; 0.63±0.09 [SE]) or larger (seven goslings; 0.52±0.15 [SE]) broods. Our results suggest that demographic trade-offs for female brant tending large broods may reduce the fitness value of clutches larger than four and, therefore, contribute to the paucity of larger clutches. The lack of a trade-off between reproductive effort and survival provides evidence that survival, to which fitness is most sensitive in long-lived animals, is buffered against temporal variation in brant.

Ultimate regulation of fecundity in species with precocial young: declining marginal value of offspring with increasing brood size does not explain maximal clutch size in Black Brent geese.

Lack 18:125-128 (1967) proposed that clutch size in precocial species was regulated by nutrients available to females during breeding. Drent and Daan 68:225-252 (1980) proposed the individual optimization hypothesis, whereby individual state determines the optimal combination of breeding date and clutch size. Neither hypothesis accounts for variation in nutrients among females at the end of egg laying, strong right truncations in clutch size distributions, or the fact that many species with precocial young are determinate layers. One solution is that there is a maximum clutch size, above which the number of fledged young declines. We manipulated brood size in Black Brent geese to decouple brood size from maternal quality and produce broods larger than the natural maximum. We recaptured marked goslings to assess variation in prefledging survival as a function of brood size and we estimated relative prefledging survival of goslings using a Bayesian hierarchical approach. We considered effects of natural clutch size, brood size and their interaction on probability that we captured goslings at about 4 weeks of age. Prefledging survival declined with increasing brood size ([Formula: see text] = -0.53; 95% CI -0.91 to -0.16), while laid clutch size had little influence on prefledging survival ([Formula: see text] = -0.04; 95% CI -0.42 to 0.32). Despite declining per capita survival with increasing brood size, the most productive brood size was six goslings, which is greater than the typical maximum clutch size of five. Thus, reduced survival in large broods, by itself, is not the sole mechanism that limits maximum clutch size. We suggest elsewhere that incubation limitation and lower residual reproductive value for females tending larger broods may be other mechanisms limiting maximal clutch size in brent.

Baseline Blood Pb Concentrations in Black-Necked Stilts on the Upper Texas Coast.

There are no known biological requirements for lead (Pb), and elevated Pb levels in birds can cause a variety of sub-lethal effects and mortality. Historic and current levels of Pb in mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) suggest that environmental sources of Pb remain available on the upper Texas coast. Because of potential risks of Pb exposure among coexisting marsh birds, black-necked stilt (Himantopus mexicanus) blood Pb concentrations were measured during the breeding season. Almost 80 % (n = 120) of 152 sampled stilts exceeded the background threshold (>20 µg/dL) for Pb exposure. However, blood Pb concentrations did not vary by age or gender, and toxic or potentially lethal concentrations were rare (<5 %). Consistent, low-level blood Pb concentrations of black-necked stilts in this study suggest the presence of readily bioavailable sources of Pb, although potential impacts on local stilt populations remain unclear.

Accurately estimating correlations between demographic parameters: A comment on Deane et al. (2023).

Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is an important method in population ecology. A recent paper by Deane et al. (Ecology and Evolution 13:e9847, 2023) attempted to explore the effects of different priors for covariance matrices on inference when using mark-recovery data. Unfortunately, Deane et al. (2023) made a mistake when parameterizing some of their models. Rather than exploring the effects of different priors, they examined the effects of the use of incorrect equations on inference. In this manuscript, we clearly describe the mistake in Deane et al. (2023). We then demonstrate the use of an alternative and appropriate method and reach different conclusions regarding the effects of priors on inference. Consistent with other recent literature, informative inverse Wishart priors can lead to flawed inference, while vague priors on covariance matrix components have little impact when sample sizes are adequate.

Individual quality and environmental factors interact to shape reproduction and survival in a resident bird of prey.

Investigating among-individual differences in reproductive success and survival is essential for understanding eco-evolutionary processes. We used 5 years of demographic data from 556 breeding barn owls (Tyto alba) to estimate associations between intrinsic and extrinsic covariates on survival and reproduction throughout the annual cycle. As males and females have distinct roles in reproduction, environmental conditions and individual quality may be differentially linked to their fitness at different time points. Males breeding early and inhabiting prey-rich areas experienced higher reproductive success but faced greater reproductive costs. Indeed, the number of offspring a male cared for was negatively associated with his body condition and survival. However, our results indicate that these influences can be mitigated in males experiencing favourable post-breeding environmental conditions. For female owls, early breeding and high food availability during the breeding period were linked with increased reproductive success. Prey availability during incubation and higher reproductive output were associated with higher survival into the next breeding period in females. Unlike males, females did not exhibit obvious trade-offs between reproductive success and survival. Our research demonstrates trade-offs between fecundity and survival, and that females paired with males able to provide sufficient food experience higher survival and reproduction.

Previous reproductive success and environmental variation influence nest-site fidelity of a subarctic-nesting goose.

Nest-site fidelity is a common strategy in birds and is believed to be adaptive due to familiarity with local conditions. Returning to previously successful nest sites (i.e., the win-stay lose-switch strategy) may be beneficial when habitat quality is spatially variable and temporally predictable; however, changes in environmental conditions may constrain dispersal decisions despite previous reproductive success. We used long-term (2000-2017) capture-mark-reencounter data and hierarchical models to examine fine-scale nest-site fidelity of emperor geese (Anser canagicus) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in Alaska. Our objectives were to quantify nest-site dispersal distances, determine whether dispersal distance is affected by previous nest fate, spring timing, or major flooding events on the study area, and determine if nest-site fidelity is adaptive in that it leads to higher nest survival. Consistent with the win-stay lose-switch strategy, expected dispersal distance for individuals that failed their nesting attempt in the previous year was greater (207.7 m, 95% HPDI: 151.1-272.7) than expected dispersal distance for individuals that nested successfully in the previous year (125.5 m, 95% HPDI: 107.1-144.9). Expected dispersal distance was slightly greater following years of major flooding events for individuals that nested successfully, although this pattern was not observed for individuals that failed their nesting attempt. We did not find evidence that expected dispersal distance was influenced by spring timing. Importantly, dispersal distance was positively related to daily survival probability of emperor goose nests for individuals that failed their previous nesting attempt, suggesting an adaptive benefit to the win-stay lose-switch strategy. Our results highlight the importance of previous experience and environmental variation for informing dispersal decisions of a long-lived goose species. However, it is unclear if dispersal decisions based on previous experience will continue to be adaptive as variability in environmental conditions increases in northern breeding areas.

Zero-inflated count distributions for capture-mark-reencounter data.

The estimation of demographic parameters is a key component of evolutionary demography and conservation biology. Capture-mark-recapture methods have served as a fundamental tool for estimating demographic parameters. The accurate estimation of demographic parameters in capture-mark-recapture studies depends on accurate modeling of the observation process. Classic capture-mark-recapture models typically model the observation process as a Bernoulli or categorical trial with detection probability conditional on a marked individual's availability for detection (e.g., alive, or alive and present in a study area). Alternatives to this approach are underused, but may have great utility in capture-recapture studies. In this paper, we explore a simple concept: in the same way that counts contain more information about abundance than simple detection/non-detection data, the number of encounters of individuals during observation occasions contains more information about the observation process than detection/non-detection data for individuals during the same occasion. Rather than using Bernoulli or categorical distributions to estimate detection probability, we demonstrate the application of zero-inflated Poisson and gamma-Poisson distributions. The use of count distributions allows for inference on availability for encounter, as well as a wide variety of parameterizations for heterogeneity in the observation process. We demonstrate that this approach can accurately recover demographic and observation parameters in the presence of individual heterogeneity in detection probability and discuss some potential future extensions of this method.

Estimating survival and adoption rates of dependent juveniles.

Population growth and fitness are typically most sensitive to adult survival in long-lived species, but variation in recruitment often explains most of the variation in fitness, as past selection has canalized adult survival. Estimating juvenile survival until age of independence has proven challenging, because marking individuals in this age class may directly affect survival. For Greater Sage-grouse, uniquely marking juveniles in the first days of life likely results in adverse effects to survival, detection of juveniles is not perfect, and females adopt juveniles from other parents. These challenges are encountered by researchers studying avian and mammalian species with similar life histories, yet methods do not exist that explicitly estimate all these components of the recruitment process. We propose a novel data collection method and demographic model to simultaneously estimate rates of detection, survival, and adoption of juvenile individuals. Using multiple cameras to film the beginning of juvenile activity on specific days, we obtained counts of juveniles associated with marked females. Increases of juveniles to broods provided information that enabled us to estimate rates of adoption that can be applied at the population level. Losses from broods informed apparent survival. These losses could be attributed to death, or they could be chicks that were adopted by other females. We found evidence that apparent survival of juveniles was influenced by localized weather patterns when chicks were young. Similarly, we found that young chicks were more susceptible to the adverse effect of attending females being flushed by an observer. Both of these patterns diminished quickly as chicks aged. We provide the first-ever estimates of interval-specific adoption rates. Our results suggest that researchers should be cautious when designing studies to estimate juvenile survival. More importantly, they provide insight into adoption, a behavior that has been known to exist for decades.

Long-term trends and drought: Spatiotemporal variation in juvenile sex ratios of North American ducks.

Sex ratios affect population dynamics and individual fitness, and changing sex ratios can be indicative of shifts in sex-specific survival at different life stages. While climate and landscape changes alter sex ratios of wild bird populations, long-term, landscape scale assessments of sex ratios are rare. Further, little work has been done to understand changes in sex ratios in avian communities. In this manuscript, we analyze long-term (1961-2015) data on five species of ducks across five broad climatic regions of the United States to estimate the effects of drought and long-term trends on the proportion of juvenile females captured at banding. As waterfowl have a 1:1 sex ratio at hatch, we interpret changes in sex ratios of captured juveniles as changes in sex-specific survival rates during early life. Seven of 12 species-region pairs exhibited evidence for long-term trends in the proportion of juvenile females at banding. The proportion of juvenile females at banding increased for duck populations in the western United States and typically declined for duck populations in the eastern United States. We only observed evidence for an effect of drought in two of the 12 species-region pairs, where the proportion of females declined during drought. As changes to North American landscapes and climate continue and intensify, we expect continued changes in sex-specific juvenile survival rates. More broadly, we encourage further research examining the mechanisms underlying long-term trends in juvenile sex ratios in avian communities.

A niche for null models in adaptive resource management.

As global systems rapidly change, our collective ability to predict future ecological dynamics will become increasingly important for successful natural resource management. By merging stakeholder objectives with system uncertainty, and by adapting actions to changing systems and knowledge, adaptive resource management (ARM) provides a rigorous platform for making sound decisions in a changing world. Critically, however, applications of ARM could be improved by employing benchmarks (i.e., points of reference) for determining when learning is occurring through the cycle of monitoring, modeling, and decision-making steps in ARM. Many applications of ARM use multiple model-based hypotheses to identify and reduce systematic uncertainty over time, but generally lack benchmarks for gauging discovery of scientific evidence and learning. This creates the danger of thinking that directional changes in model weights or rankings are indicative of evidence for hypotheses, when possibly all competing models are inadequate. There is thus a somewhat obvious, but yet to be filled niche for including benchmarks for learning in ARM. We contend that carefully designed "ecological null models," which are structured to produce an expected ecological pattern in the absence of a hypothesized mechanism, can serve as suitable benchmarks. Using a classic case study of mallard harvest management that is often used to demonstrate the successes of ARM for learning about ecological mechanisms, we show that simple ecological null models, such as population persistence (Nt +1 = Nt ), provide more robust near-term forecasts of population abundance than the currently used mechanistic models. More broadly, ecological null models can be used as benchmarks for learning in ARM that trigger the need for discarding model parameterizations and developing new ones when prevailing models underperform the ecological null model. Identifying mechanistic models that surpass these benchmarks will improve learning through ARM and help decision-makers keep pace with a rapidly changing world.

Sharing detection heterogeneity information among species in community models of occupancy and abundance can strengthen inference.

The estimation of abundance and distribution and factors governing patterns in these parameters is central to the field of ecology. The continued development of hierarchical models that best utilize available information to inform these processes is a key goal of quantitative ecologists. However, much remains to be learned about simultaneously modeling true abundance, presence, and trajectories of ecological communities.Simultaneous modeling of the population dynamics of multiple species provides an interesting mechanism to examine patterns in community processes and, as we emphasize herein, to improve species-specific estimates by leveraging detection information among species. Here, we demonstrate a simple but effective approach to share information about observation parameters among species in hierarchical community abundance and occupancy models, where we use shared random effects among species to account for spatiotemporal heterogeneity in detection probability.We demonstrate the efficacy of our modeling approach using simulated abundance data, where we recover well our simulated parameters using N-mixture models. Our approach substantially increases precision in estimates of abundance compared with models that do not share detection information among species. We then expand this model and apply it to repeated detection/non-detection data collected on six species of tits (Paridae) breeding at 119 1 km2 sampling sites across a P. montanus hybrid zone in northern Switzerland (2004-2020). We find strong impacts of forest cover and elevation on population persistence and colonization in all species. We also demonstrate evidence for interspecific competition on population persistence and colonization probabilities, where the presence of marsh tits reduces population persistence and colonization probability of sympatric willow tits, potentially decreasing gene flow among willow tit subspecies.While conceptually simple, our results have important implications for the future modeling of population abundance, colonization, persistence, and trajectories in community frameworks. We suggest potential extensions of our modeling in this paper and discuss how leveraging data from multiple species can improve model performance and sharpen ecological inference.

Individual heterogeneity in fitness in a long-lived herbivore.

Heterogeneity in the intrinsic quality and nutritional condition of individuals affects reproductive success and consequently fitness. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are long-lived, migratory, specialist herbivores. Long migratory pathways and short summer breeding seasons constrain the time and energy available for reproduction, thus magnifying life-history trade-offs. These constraints, combined with long lifespans and trade-offs between current and future reproductive value, provide a model system to examine the role of individual heterogeneity in driving life-history strategies and individual heterogeneity in fitness. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to examine reproductive trade-offs, modeling the relationships between within-year measures of reproductive energy allocation and among-year demographic rates of individual females breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, using capture-recapture and reproductive data from 1988 to 2014. We generally found that annual survival tended to be buffered against variation in reproductive investment, while breeding probability varied considerably over the range of clutch size-laying date combinations. We provide evidence for relationships between breeding probability and clutch size, breeding probability and nest initiation date, and an interaction between clutch size and initiation date. Average lifetime clutch size also had a weak positive relationship with apparent survival probability. Our results support the use of demographic buffering strategies for black brant. These results also indirectly suggest associations among environmental conditions during growth, fitness, and energy allocation, highlighting the effects of early growth conditions on individual heterogeneity, and subsequently, lifetime reproductive investment.

Estimating correlations among demographic parameters in population models.

Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is critical to understanding population dynamics and life-history evolution, where correlations among parameters can inform our understanding of life-history trade-offs, result in effective applied conservation actions, and shed light on evolutionary ecology. The most common approaches rely on the multivariate normal distribution, and its conjugate inverse Wishart prior distribution. However, the inverse Wishart prior for the covariance matrix of multivariate normal distributions has a strong influence on posterior distributions. As an alternative to the inverse Wishart distribution, we individually parameterize the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal distribution to accurately estimate variances (σ 2) of, and process correlations (ρ) between, demographic parameters. We evaluate this approach using simulated capture-mark-recapture data. We then use this method to examine process correlations between adult and juvenile survival of black brent geese marked on the Yukon-Kuskokwim River Delta, Alaska (1988-2014). Our parameterization consistently outperformed the conjugate inverse Wishart prior for simulated data, where the means of posterior distributions estimated using an inverse Wishart prior were substantially different from the values used to simulate the data. Brent adult and juvenile annual apparent survival rates were strongly positively correlated (ρ = 0.563, 95% CRI 0.181-0.823), suggesting that habitat conditions have significant effects on both adult and juvenile survival. We provide robust simulation tools, and our methods can readily be expanded for use in other capture-recapture or capture-recovery frameworks. Further, our work reveals limits on the utility of these approaches when study duration or sample sizes are small.

Experimental harvest regulations reveal that water availability during spring, not harvest, affects change in a waterfowl population.

Population change is regulated by vital rates that are influenced by environmental conditions, demographic stochasticity, and, increasingly, anthropogenic effects. Habitat destruction and climate change threaten the future of many wildlife populations, and there are additional concerns regarding the effects of harvest rates on demographic components of harvested organisms. Further, many population managers strictly manage harvest of wild organisms to mediate population trends of these populations. The goal of our study was to decouple harvest and environmental variability in a closely monitored population of wild ducks in North America, where we experimentally regulated harvest independently of environmental variation over a period of 4 years. We used 9 years of capture-mark-recapture data to estimate breeding population size during the spring for a population of wood ducks in Nevada. We then assessed the effect of one environmental variable and harvest pressure on annual changes in the breeding population size. Climatic conditions influencing water availability were strongly positively related to population growth rates of wood ducks in our study system. In contrast, harvest regulations and harvest rates did not affect population growth rates. We suggest efforts to conserve waterfowl should focus on the effects of habitat loss in breeding areas and climate change, which will likely affect precipitation regimes in the future. We demonstrate the utility of capture-mark-recapture methods to estimate abundance of species which are difficult to survey and test the impacts of anthropogenic harvest and climate on populations. Finally, our results continue to add to the importance of experimentation in applied conservation biology, where we believe that continued experiments on nonthreatened species will be critically important as researchers attempt to understand how to quantify and mitigate direct anthropogenic impacts in a changing world.