Derivation and external validation of a simple prediction rule for the development of respiratory failure in hospitalized patients with influenza.

BACKGROUND: Influenza viruses cause seasonal epidemics worldwide with a significant morbimortality burden. Clinical spectrum of Influenza is wide, being respiratory failure (RF) one of its most severe complications. This study aims to elaborate a clinical prediction rule of RF in hospitalized Influenza patients. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted during two consecutive Influenza seasons (December 2016-March 2017 and December 2017-April 2018) including hospitalized adults with confirmed A or B Influenza infection. A prediction rule was derived using logistic regression and recursive partitioning, followed by internal cross-validation. External validation was performed on a retrospective cohort in a different hospital between December 2018 and May 2019. RESULTS: Overall, 707 patients were included in the derivation cohort and 285 in the validation cohort. RF rate was 6.8% and 11.6%, respectively. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunosuppression, radiological abnormalities, respiratory rate, lymphopenia, lactate dehydrogenase and C-reactive protein at admission were associated with RF. A four category-grouped seven point-score was derived including radiological abnormalities, lymphopenia, respiratory rate and lactate dehydrogenase. Final model area under the curve was 0.796 (0.714-0.877) in the derivation cohort and 0.773 (0.687-0.859) in the validation cohort (p < 0.001 in both cases). The predicted model showed an adequate fit with the observed results (Fisher's test p > 0.43). CONCLUSION: we present a simple, discriminating, well-calibrated rule for an early prediction of the development of RF in hospitalized Influenza patients, with proper performance in an external validation cohort. This tool can be helpful in patient's stratification during seasonal Influenza epidemics.

Species and biotypes of Streptococcus bovis causing infective endocarditis.

INTRODUCTION: Streptococcus bovis/equinus complex (SBEC) is a major cause of infective endocarditis (IE), although its incidence varies greatly depending on the geographical area. The characteristics of IE caused by Streptococcus gallolyticus susp. gallolyticus are well known; there are hardly any descriptions of IE caused by other species or biotypes. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study, from 1990 to 2019, of all SBEC IE in adults in three Spanish hospitals, Lugo (LH), Barcelona (BH) and Ferrol (FH) where the population is mainly rural, urban and mixed, respectively. The incidence of IE was analyzed in 3 areas. Clinical characteristics of IE (277 cases, 258 biotyped) were compared according to SBEC species and biotypes. RESULTS: There are significant differences between the incidence of SBEC IE in HL (27.9/106) vs. HF and HB (8.8 and 7,1, respectively, p<0.001). We found significant differences (SbI vs. SbII) in mean age (68.5 vs. 73 years; p<0.01), duration of symptoms before diagnosis (46.9±46.5 vs. 30.4±40.9 days; p<0.01), presence of comorbidities: 39.1% (78) vs. 54.2% (32; p<0.04), predisposing heart illness:62.3% (124) vs. 81.3% (48; p<0.006), particularly, prosthetic or intravascular devices IE: 24.6% (49) vs. 52.4% (31; p<0.001), bi-valve involvement:23.6% (47) vs. 11.8% (7; p<0.05) and heart failure: 24.6% (49) vs. 38.9% (23; p<0.03). There were no significant differences in embolic events, need for surgery or mortality. The association with CRC was high in both groups: 77.7% vs. 66.6%. CONCLUSIONS: IE due to SBEC has geographical variations in incidence and different clinical characteristics among biotypes. The association with CRC was high.

Relationship among Streptococcus gallolyticus Subsp. gallolyticus, Enterococcus faecalis and Colorectal Neoplasms in Recurrent Endocarditis: A Historical Case Series.

OBJECTIVES: The role of colorectal neoplasms (CRN) as a common potential source of recurrent Streptococcus gallolyticus subsp. gallolyticus (SGG) and Enterococcus faecalis (EF) endocarditis remains unstudied. We aimed to investigate what proportion of episodes of recurrent endocarditis are caused by a succession of SGG and EF, or vice versa, and to assess the role of a colonic source in such recurrent episodes. METHODS: we conducted a retrospective analysis of two prospective endocarditis cohorts (1979-2019) from two Spanish hospitals, providing descriptive analyses of the major features of the endocarditis episodes, colonoscopy findings, and histologic results. RESULTS: among 1552 IE episodes, 204 (13.1%) were caused by EF and 197 (12.7%) by SGG, respectively. There were 155 episodes (10%) of recurrent IE, 20 of which (12.9%) were due to a succession of SGG/EF IE in 10 patients (the first episode caused by SGG in eight cases, and by EF in two cases). The median follow-up was 86 (interquartile range 34-156) months. In 8/10 initial episodes, the causative microorganism was SGG, and all patients were diagnosed with CRN either during the initial episode or during follow-up. During the second episode of IE or follow-up, colonoscopies revealed CRN in six patients. CONCLUSIONS: There seems to be an association between SGG and EF in recurrent endocarditis that warrants further investigation. Our findings reinforce the need for systematically performing colonoscopy in the event of endocarditis caused by both microorganisms.