A Satellite Account for Health in the United States.

This paper develops a satellite account for the US health sector and measures productivity growth in health care for the elderly population between 1999 and 2012. We measure the change in medical spending and health outcomes for a comprehensive set of 80 conditions. Medical care has positive productivity growth over the time period, with aggregate productivity growth of 1.5% per year. However, there is significant heterogeneity in productivity growth. Care for cardiovascular disease has had very high productivity growth. In contrast, care for people with musculoskeletal conditions has been costly but has not led to improved outcomes.

Trends in acute myocardial infarction hospitalizations: Are we seeing the whole picture?

BACKGROUND: Payers and policy makers rely on studies of trends in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) hospitalizations and spending that count only hospitalizations where the AMI is the principal discharge diagnosis. Hospitalizations with AMI coded as a secondary diagnosis are ignored. The effects of excluding these hospitalizations on estimates of trends are unknown. METHODS: Observational study of all AMI hospitalizations in Fee-for-Service Medicare beneficiaries 65 years and older, from 2002 through 2011. RESULTS: We studied 3,663,137 hospitalizations with any AMI discharge diagnosis over 288,873,509 beneficiary-years. Of these, 66% had AMI coded as principal (versus secondary). From 2002 to 2011, AMI hospitalization rates declined 24.5% (from 1,485 per 100,000 beneficiary-years in 2002 to 1,122 in 2011). Meanwhile, the proportion of these hospitalizations with a secondary AMI diagnosis increased from 28% to 40%; by 2011 these secondary AMI hospitalizations accounted for 43% of all expenditures for hospitalizations with AMI, or $2.8 billion. Major changes in comorbidities, principal diagnoses and mean costs for hospitalizations with a non-principal AMI diagnosis occurred in the 2006-2008 timeframe. CONCLUSIONS: Current estimates of the burden of AMI ignore an increasingly large proportion of overall AMI hospitalizations and spending. Changes in the characteristics of hospitalizations that coincided with major payment and policy changes suggest that non-clinical factors affect AMI coding. Failing to consider all AMIs could inflate estimates of population health improvements, overestimate the value of AMI prevention and treatment and underestimate current and future AMI burden and expenditures.

Follow-up compliance after endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in Medicare beneficiaries.

OBJECTIVE: Lifelong imaging follow-up is essential to the safe and appropriate management of patients who undergo endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR). We sought to evaluate the rate of compliance with imaging follow-up after EVAR and to identify factors associated with being lost to imaging follow-up. METHODS: We identified a 20% sample of continuously enrolled Medicare beneficiaries who underwent EVAR between 2001 and 2008. Using data through 2010 from Medicare Inpatient, Outpatient, and Carrier files, we identified all abdominal imaging studies that may have been performed for EVAR follow-up. Patients were considered lost to annual imaging follow-up if they did not undergo any abdominal imaging study within their last 2 years of follow-up. Multivariable models were constructed to identify independent factors associated with being lost to annual imaging follow-up. RESULTS: Among 19,962 patients who underwent EVAR, the incidence of loss to annual imaging follow-up at 5 years after EVAR was 50%. Primary factors associated with being lost to annual imaging follow-up were advanced age (age 65-69 years, reference; age 75-79 years: hazard ratio [HR], 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.15-1.32; age 80-85 years: HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.35-1.55; age >85 years: HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.88-2.20) and presentation with an urgent/emergent intact aneurysm (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.20-1.35) or ruptured aneurysm (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.63-2.08). Additional independent factors included several previously diagnosed chronic diseases and South and West regions of the United States. CONCLUSIONS: Annual imaging follow-up compliance after EVAR in the United States is significantly below recommended levels. Quality improvement efforts to encourage improved compliance with imaging follow-up, especially in older patients with multiple comorbidities and in those who underwent EVAR urgently or for rupture, are necessary.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

OBJECTIVE: Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. METHODS: This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged.

Comparison of trends in US health-related quality of life over the 2000s using the SF-6D, HALex, EQ-5D, and EQ-5D visual analog scale versus a broader set of symptoms and impairments.

BACKGROUND: A number of instruments have been developed to measure health-related quality of life (HRQoL), differing in the health domains covered and their scoring. Although few such measures have been consistently included in US national health surveys over time, the surveys have included data on a broad range of symptoms and impairments, which enables the tracking of population health trends. OBJECTIVES: To compare trends in HRQoL as measured using existing instruments versus using a broader range of symptoms and impairments collected in multiple years of nationally representative data. DATA AND MEASURES: Data were from the 2000-2010 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which is nationally representative of the noninstitutionalized US population. Level of and trends in HRQoL derived from a broad range of survey symptoms and impairments (SSI) was compared with HRQoL from the SF-6D, the HALex, and, between 2000 and 2003, the EuroQol-5D (EQ-5D) and EQ-5D Visual Analog Scale. RESULTS: Trends in HRQoL were similar using different measures. The SSI scores correlated 0.66-0.80 with scores from other measures and mean SSI scores were between those of other measures. Scores from all HRQoL measures declined similarly with increasing age and with the presence of comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Measuring HRQoL using a broader range of symptoms and impairments than those in a single instrument yields population health trends similar to those from other measures while making maximum use of existing data and providing rich detail on the factors underlying change.

US trends in quality-adjusted life expectancy from 1987 to 2008: combining national surveys to more broadly track the health of the nation.

OBJECTIVES: We used data from multiple national health surveys to systematically track the health of the US adult population. METHODS: We estimated trends in quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) from 1987 to 2008 by using national mortality data combined with data on symptoms and impairments from the National Medical Expenditure Survey (1987), National Health Interview Survey (1987, 1994-1995, 1996), Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (1992, 1996, 2000-2008), National Nursing Home Survey (1985, 1995, and 1999), and Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (1992, 1994-2008). We decomposed QALE into changes in life expectancy, impairments, symptoms, and smoking and body mass index. RESULTS: Years of QALE increased overall and for all demographic groups-men, women, Whites, and Blacks-despite being slowed by increases in obesity and a rising prevalence of some symptoms and impairments. Overall QALE gains were large: 2.4 years at age 25 years and 1.7 years at age 65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding and consistently tracking the drivers of QALE change is central to informed policymaking. Harmonizing data from multiple national surveys is an important step in building this infrastructure.

Forecasting the effects of obesity and smoking on U.S. life expectancy.

BACKGROUND: Although increases in obesity over the past 30 years have adversely affected the health of the U.S. population, there have been concomitant improvements in health because of reductions in smoking. Having a better understanding of the joint effects of these trends on longevity and quality of life will facilitate more efficient targeting of health care resources. METHODS: For each year from 2005 through 2020, we forecasted life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy for a representative 18-year-old, assuming a continuation of past trends in smoking (based on data from the National Health Interview Survey for 1978 through 1979, 1990 through 1991, 1999 through 2001, and 2004 through 2006) and past trends in body-mass index (BMI) (based on data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for 1971 through 1975, 1988 through 1994, 1999 through 2002, and 2003 through 2006). The 2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was used to examine the effects of smoking and BMI on health-related quality of life. RESULTS: The negative effects of increasing BMI overwhelmed the positive effects of declines in smoking in multiple scenarios. In the base case, increases in the remaining life expectancy of a typical 18-year-old are held back by 0.71 years or 0.91 quality-adjusted years between 2005 and 2020. If all U.S. adults became nonsmokers of normal weight by 2020, we forecast that the life expectancy of an 18-year-old would increase by 3.76 life-years or 5.16 quality-adjusted years. CONCLUSIONS: If past obesity trends continue unchecked, the negative effects on the health of the U.S. population will increasingly outweigh the positive effects gained from declining smoking rates. Failure to address continued increases in obesity could result in an erosion of the pattern of steady gains in health observed since early in the 20th century.

Hospitalizations and deaths among adults with cardiovascular disease who underuse medications because of cost: a longitudinal analysis.

CONTEXT: It is well-documented that the financial burden of out-of-pocket expenditures for prescription drugs often leads people with medication-sensitive chronic illnesses to restrict their use of these medications. Less is known about the extent to which such cost-related medication underuse is associated with increases in subsequent hospitalizations and deaths. OBJECTIVE: We compared the risk of hospitalizations among 5401 and of death among 6135 middle-aged and elderly adults with one or more cardiovascular diseases (diabetes, coronary artery disease, heart failure, and history of stroke) according to whether participants did or did not report restricting prescription medications because of cost. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective biannual cohort study across 4 cross-sectional waves of the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative survey of adults older than age 50. Using multivariate logistic regression to adjust for baseline differences in sociodemographic and health characteristics, we assessed subsequent hospitalizations and deaths between 1998 and 2006 for respondents who reported that they had or had not taken less medicine than prescribed because of cost. RESULTS: Respondents with cardiovascular disease who reported underusing medications due to cost were significantly more likely to be hospitalized in the next 2 years, even after adjusting for other patient characteristics (adjusted predicted probability of 47% compared with 38%, P < 0.001). The more survey waves respondents reported cost-related medication underuse during 1998 to 2004, the higher the probability of being hospitalized in 2006 (adjusted predicted probability of 54% among respondents reporting cost-related medication underuse in all 4 survey waves compared with 42% among respondents reporting no underuse, P < 0.001). There was no independent association of cost-related medication underuse with death. CONCLUSIONS: In this nationally representative cohort, middle-aged and elderly adults with cardiovascular disease who reported cutting back on medication use because of cost were more likely to report being hospitalized over a subsequent 2-year period after they had reported medication underuse. The more extensively respondents reported cost-related underuse over time, the higher their adjusted predicted probability of subsequent hospitalization.

Attributing medical spending to conditions: A comparison of methods.

To understand the cost burden of medical care it is essential to partition medical spending into conditions. Two broad strategies have been used to measure disease-specific spending. The first attributes each medical claim to the condition that physicians list as its cause. The second decomposes total spending for a person over a year to their cumulative set of health conditions. Traditionally, this has been done through regression analysis. This paper has two contributions. First, we develop a new cost attribution method to attribute spending to conditions using a more flexible attribution approach, based on propensity score analysis. Second, we compare the propensity score approach to the claims-based approach and the regression approach in a common set of beneficiaries age 65 and older in the 2009 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. Our estimates show that the three methods have important differences in spending allocation and that the propensity score model likely offers the best theoretical and empirical combination.

The value of medical spending in the United States, 1960-2000.

BACKGROUND: The increased use of medical therapies has led to increased medical costs. To provide insight into the value of this increased spending, we compared gains in life expectancy with the increased costs of care from 1960 through 2000. METHODS: We estimated life expectancy in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000 for four age groups. To control for the influence of nonmedical factors on survival, we assumed in our base-case analysis that 50 percent of the gains were due to medical care. We compared the adjusted increases in life expectancy with the lifetime cost of medical care in the same years. RESULTS: From 1960 through 2000, the life expectancy for newborns increased by 6.97 years, lifetime medical spending adjusted for inflation increased by approximately 69,000 dollars, and the cost per year of life gained was 19,900 dollars. The cost increased from 7,400 dollars per year of life gained in the 1970s to 36,300 dollars in the 1990s. The average cost per year of life gained in 1960-2000 was approximately 31,600 dollars at 15 years of age, 53,700 dollars at 45 years of age, and 84,700 dollars at 65 years of age. At 65 years of age, costs rose more rapidly than did life expectancy: the cost per year of life gained was 121,000 dollars between 1980 and 1990 and 145,000 dollars between 1990 and 2000. CONCLUSIONS: On average, the increases in medical spending since 1960 have provided reasonable value. However, the spending increases in medical care for the elderly since 1980 are associated with a high cost per year of life gained. The national focus on the rise in medical spending should be balanced by attention to the health benefits of this increased spending.

Challenges in building disease-based national health accounts.

BACKGROUND: Measuring spending on diseases is critical to assessing the value of medical care. OBJECTIVE: To review the current state of cost of illness estimation methods, identifying their strengths, limitations, and uses. We briefly describe the current National Health Expenditure Accounts, and then go on to discuss the addition of cost of illness estimation to the National Health Expenditure Accounts. CONCLUSION: Recommendations are made for future research aimed at identifying the best methods for developing and using disease-based national health accounts to optimize the information available to policy makers as they struggle with difficult resource allocation decisions.

Incidence and mortality of hip fractures in the United States.

CONTEXT: Understanding the incidence and subsequent mortality following hip fracture is essential to measuring population health and the value of improvements in health care. OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in hip fracture incidence and resulting mortality over 20 years in the US Medicare population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Observational study using data from a 20% sample of Medicare claims from 1985-2005. In patients 65 years or older, we identified 786,717 hip fractures for analysis. Medication data were obtained from 109,805 respondents to the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey between 1992 and 2005. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and age- and risk-adjusted mortality rates. RESULTS: Between 1986 and 2005, the annual mean number of hip fractures was 957.3 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 921.7-992.9) for women and 414.4 per 100,000 (95% CI, 401.6-427.3) for men. The age-adjusted incidence of hip fracture increased from 1986 to 1995 and then steadily declined from 1995 to 2005. In women, incidence increased 9.0%, from 964.2 per 100,000 (95% CI, 958.3-970.1) in 1986 to 1050.9 (95% CI, 1045.2-1056.7) in 1995, with a subsequent decline of 24.5% to 793.5 (95% CI, 788.7-798.3) in 2005. In men, the increase in incidence from 1986 to 1995 was 16.4%, from 392.4 (95% CI, 387.8-397.0) to 456.6 (95% CI, 452.0-461.3), and the subsequent decrease to 2005 was 19.2%, to 369.0 (95% CI, 365.1-372.8). Age- and risk-adjusted mortality in women declined by 11.9%, 14.9%, and 8.8% for 30-, 180-, and 360-day mortality, respectively. For men, age- and risk-adjusted mortality decreased by 21.8%, 25.4%, and 20.0% for 30-, 180-, and 360-day mortality, respectively. Over time, patients with hip fracture have had an increase in all comorbidities recorded except paralysis. The incidence decrease is coincident with increased use of bisphosphonates. CONCLUSION: In the United States, hip fracture rates and subsequent mortality among persons 65 years and older are declining, and comorbidities among patients with hip fractures have increased.

Explaining The Slowdown In Medical Spending Growth Among The Elderly, 1999-2012.

We examined trends in per capita spending for Medicare beneficiaries ages sixty-five and older in the United States in the period 1999-2012 to determine why spending growth has been declining since around 2005. Decomposing spending by condition, we found that half of the spending slowdown was attributable to slower growth in spending for cardiovascular diseases. Spending growth also slowed for dementia, renal and genitourinary diseases, and aftercare for people with acute illnesses. Using estimates from the medical literature of the impact of pharmaceuticals on acute disease, we found that roughly half of the reduction in major cardiovascular events was attributable to medications controlling cardiovascular risk factors. Despite this substantial cost-saving improvement in cardiovascular health, additional opportunities remain to lower spending through disease prevention and control.

The impact of symptoms and impairments on overall health in US national health data.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effects on overall self-rated health of the broad range of symptoms and impairments that are routinely asked about in national surveys. DATA: We use data from adults in the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) 2002 with validation in an independent sample from MEPS 2000. METHODS: Regression analysis is used to relate impairments and symptoms to a 100-point self-rating of general health status. The effect of each impairment and symptom on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is estimated from regression coefficients, accounting for interactions between them. RESULTS: Impairments and symptoms most strongly associated with overall health include pain, self-care limitations, and having little or no energy. The most prevalent are moderate pain, severe anxiety, moderate depressive symptoms, and low energy. Effects are stable across different waves of MEPS, and questions cover a broader range of impairments and symptoms than existing health measurement instruments. CONCLUSIONS: This method makes use of the rich detail on impairments and symptoms in existing national data, quantifying their independent effects on overall health. Given the ongoing availability of these data and the shortcomings of traditional utility methods, it would be valuable to compare existing HRQOL measures to other methods, such as the one presented herein, for use in tracking population health over time.

Effects of increased patient cost sharing on socioeconomic disparities in health care.

BACKGROUND: Increasing patient cost sharing is a commonly employed mechanism to contain health care expenditures. OBJECTIVE: To explore whether the impact of increases in prescription drug copayments differs between high- and low-income areas. DESIGN: Using a database of 6 million enrollees with employer-sponsored health insurance, econometric models were used to examine the relationship between changes in drug copayments and adherence with medications for the treatment of diabetes mellitus (DM) and congestive heart failure (CHF). SUBJECTS: Individuals 18 years of age and older meeting prespecified diagnostic criteria for DM or CHF were included. MEASUREMENTS: Median household income in the patient's ZIP code of residence from the 2000 Census was used as the measure of income. Adherence was measured by medication possession ratio: the proportion of days on which a patient had a medication available. RESULTS: Patients in low-income areas were more sensitive to copayment changes than patients in high- or middle-income areas. The relationship between income and price sensitivity was particularly strong for CHF patients. Above the lowest income category, price responsiveness to copayment rates was not consistently related to income. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between medication adherence and income may account for a portion of the observed disparities in health across socioeconomic groups. Rising copayments may worsen disparities and adversely affect health, particularly among patients living in low-income areas.

Linking cost sharing to value: an unrivaled yet unrealized public health opportunity.

As the financial burden of cost sharing continues to rise, patients increasingly avoid necessary care, thereby contributing to the high morbidity and mortality of the U.S. population compared with that of other developed countries. The rationale for cost sharing is often based on the moral hazard argument, which states that individuals may overuse care if they do not share in its costs. We evaluate this argument in detail, using it to distinguish between appropriate and inappropriate settings for cost sharing. Cost sharing may be appropriate when health services are of low value (low ratio of benefits to costs), whereas it is inappropriate when health services are of high value (high ratio of benefits to costs). In practice, cost sharing is rarely linked to value, and therefore much of the cost sharing that currently occurs is inappropriate and harmful. Cost-effectiveness analysis is an objective method to estimate the value of health services and may be a way to systematically evaluate whether cost-sharing policies are appropriate. Systematic efforts to discourage inappropriate cost sharing may improve public health.

Trends in the prevalence and mortality of cognitive impairment in the United States: is there evidence of a compression of cognitive morbidity?

BACKGROUND: Recent medical, demographic, and social trends might have had an important impact on the cognitive health of older adults. To assess the impact of these multiple trends, we compared the prevalence and 2-year mortality of cognitive impairment (CI) consistent with dementia in the United States in 1993 to 1995 and 2002 to 2004. METHODS: We used data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative population-based longitudinal survey of U.S. adults. Individuals aged 70 years or older from the 1993 (N = 7,406) and 2002 (N = 7,104) waves of the HRS were included. CI was determined by using a 35-point cognitive scale for self-respondents and assessments of memory and judgment for respondents represented by a proxy. Mortality was ascertained with HRS data verified by the National Death Index. RESULTS: In 1993, 12.2% of those aged 70 or older had CI compared with 8.7% in 2002 (P < .001). CI was associated with a significantly higher risk of 2-year mortality in both years. The risk of death for those with moderate/severe CI was greater in 2002 compared with 1993 (unadjusted hazard ratio, 4.12 in 2002 vs 3.36 in 1993; P = .08; age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio, 3.11 in 2002 vs 2.53 in 1993; P = .09). Education was protective against CI, but among those with CI, more education was associated with higher 2-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the hypothesis of a compression of cognitive morbidity between 1993 and 2004, with fewer older Americans reaching a threshold of significant CI and a more rapid decline to death among those who did. Societal investment in building and maintaining cognitive reserve through formal education in childhood and continued cognitive stimulation during work and leisure in adulthood might help limit the burden of dementia among the growing number of older adults worldwide.

Views of practicing physicians and the public on medical errors.

BACKGROUND: In response to the report by the Institute of Medicine on medical errors, national groups have recommended actions to reduce the occurrence of preventable medical errors. What is not known is the level of support for these proposed changes among practicing physicians and the public. METHODS: We conducted parallel national surveys of 831 practicing physicians, who responded to mailed questionnaires, and 1207 members of the public, who were interviewed by telephone after selection with the use of random-digit dialing. Respondents were asked about the causes of and solutions to the problem of preventable medical errors and, on the basis of a clinical vignette, were asked what the consequences of an error should be. RESULTS: Many physicians (35 percent) and members of the public (42 percent) reported errors in their own or a family member's care, but neither group viewed medical errors as one of the most important problems in health care today. A majority of both groups believed that the number of in-hospital deaths due to preventable errors is lower than that reported by the Institute of Medicine. Physicians and the public disagreed on many of the underlying causes of errors and on effective strategies for reducing errors. Neither group believed that moving patients to high-volume centers would be a very effective strategy. The public and many physicians supported the use of sanctions against individual health professionals perceived as responsible for serious errors. CONCLUSIONS: Though substantial proportions of the public and practicing physicians report that they have had personal experience with medical errors, neither group has the sense of urgency expressed by many national organizations. To advance their agenda, national groups need to convince physicians, in particular, that the current proposals for reducing errors will be very effective.

Enhancing Administrative Data to Predict Emergency Department Utilization: The Role of Neighborhood Sociodemographics.

Much of emergency department use is avoidable, and high-quality primary care can reduce it, but performance measures related to ED use may be inadequately risk-adjusted. To explore associations between emergency department (ED) use and neighborhood poverty, we conducted a secondary analysis of Massachusetts managed care network data, 2009-2011. For enrollees with commercial insurance (n = 64,623), we predicted any, total, and total primary-care-sensitive (PCS) ED visits using claims/enrollment (age, sex, race, morbidity, prior ED use), network (payor, primary care provider [PCP] type and quality), and census-tract-level characteristics. Overall, 14.6% had any visit; mean visits per 100 persons were 18.8 (±0.2) total and 7.6 (±0.1) PCS. Neighborhood poverty predicted all three outcomes (all P< .001). Holding providers accountable for their patients' ED use should avoid penalizing PCPs who care for poor and otherwise vulnerable populations. Expected use targets should account for neighborhood-level variables such as income, as well as other risk factors.