Higher Triad Risk Scores Are Associated With Increased Risk for Trabecular-Rich Bone Stress Injuries in Female Runners.

OBJECTIVE: Bone stress injuries (BSIs) in trabecular-rich bone are associated with greater biological risk factors compared with cortical-rich bone. We hypothesized that female runners with high Female Athlete Triad (Triad)-related risk would be at greater risk for trabecular-rich BSIs than runners with low Triad-related risk. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Two NCAA institutions. PARTICIPANTS: Female runners were followed prospectively for up to 5 years. INTERVENTION: The intervention consisted of team nutrition presentations focused on optimizing energy availability plus individualized nutrition sessions. Triad Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA) categories were assigned yearly based on low-energy availability, menstrual status, age of menarche, low body mass index, low bone mineral density, and prior BSI. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome was the annual incidence of trabecular- and cortical-rich BSI. Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE, to account for the correlated nature of the observations) with a Poisson distribution and log link were used for statistical modeling. RESULTS: Cortical-rich BSI rates were higher than trabecular-rich BSI rates (0.32 vs 0.13 events per person-year). Female runners with high Triad-related risk had a significantly higher incidence rate ratio of trabecular-rich BSI (RR: 4.40, P = 0.025) and cortical-rich BSI (RR: 2.87, P = 0.025) than women with low Triad-related risk. Each 1-point increase in Triad CRA score was associated with a significant 26% increased risk of trabecular-rich BSI ( P = 0.0007) and a nonsignificant 14% increased risk of cortical-rich BSI ( P = 0.054). CONCLUSIONS: Increased Triad CRA scores were strongly associated with increased risk for trabecular-rich BSI. Incorporating Triad CRA scores in clinical care could guide BSI prevention.

The Impacts of COVID-19 on Mental Health and Training in US Professional Endurance Athletes.

OBJECTIVE: We examined how professional athletes are affected by COVID-19. Our primary aim was to assess changes in mental health that occurred after COVID-19 restrictions, and our secondary aim was to assess changes in exercise volume and intensity. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: Strava professional endurance athletes. ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS: Participants completed a survey, and a subset of participants consented to have their activity data analyzed. The survey included questions on COVID-19 symptoms, exercise, and mental health, as measured by a modified Patient Health Questionnaire. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants were asked about 2 periods in 2020: before COVID-19 (January 1-March 14) and during COVID-19 (March 15-August 25), and activity data from both periods were downloaded. Activity data consisted of Global Positioning System and self-reported uploads. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-one male and female Strava athletes were enrolled, and a subset of athletes (n = 114) consented to have their activity data analyzed. During COVID-19 restrictions, 22.2% of participants reported feeling down or depressed and 27.4% of participants reported feeling nervous or anxious at least half the days in a week compared with 3.8% and 4.6% before COVID-19 restrictions, respectively (P < 0.0001). Activity data revealed a significant increase (P < 0.0001) in exercise minutes per day during COVID-19 (mean = 103.00, SD = 42.1) compared with before COVID-19 restrictions (mean = 92.4, SD = 41.3), with no significant changes in intensity. CONCLUSIONS: Athletes reported significant increases in feeling down or depressed and nervous or anxious despite an increase in exercise duration during COVID-19. Future research should assess how to support athletes with mental health resources.

Prevalence of Female and Male Athlete Triad Risk Factors in Ultramarathon Runners.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the prevalence of male and female athlete triad risk factors in ultramarathon runners and explore associations between sex hormones and bone mineral density (BMD). DESIGN: Multiyear cross-sectional study. SETTING: One hundred-mile ultramarathon. PARTICIPANTS: Competing runners were recruited in 2018 and 2019. ASSESSMENT OF RISK FACTORS: Participants completed a survey assessing eating behaviors, menstrual history, and injury history; dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry for BMD; and laboratory evaluation of sex hormones, vitamin D, and ferritin (2019 cohort only). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: A Triad Cumulative Risk Assessment Score was calculated for each participant. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-three runners participated (83 males and 40 females, mean age 46.2 and 41.8 years, respectively). 44.5% of men and 62.5% of women had elevated risk for disordered eating. 37.5% of women reported a history of bone stress injury (BSI) and 16.7% had BMD Z scores <-1.0. 20.5% of men had a history of BSI and 30.1% had Z-scores <-1.0. Low body mass index (BMI) (<18.5 kg/m 2 ) was seen in 15% of women and no men. The Triad Cumulative Risk Assessment classified 61.1% of women and 29.2% of men as moderate risk and 5.6% of both men and women as high risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our study is the first to measure BMD in both male and female ultramarathon runners. Our male population had a higher prevalence of low BMD than the general population; females were more likely to report history of BSI. Risk of disordered eating was elevated among our participants but was not associated with either low BMD or low BMI.

The 2016 California policy to eliminate nonmedical vaccine exemptions and changes in vaccine coverage: An empirical policy analysis.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine hesitancy, the reluctance or refusal to receive vaccination, is a growing public health problem in the United States and globally. State policies that eliminate nonmedical ("personal belief") exemptions to childhood vaccination requirements are controversial, and their effectiveness to improve vaccination coverage remains unclear given limited rigorous policy analysis. In 2016, a California policy (Senate Bill 277) eliminated nonmedical exemptions from school entry requirements. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between California's 2016 policy and changes in vaccine coverage. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a quasi-experimental state-level synthetic control analysis and a county-level difference-in-differences analysis to estimate the impact of the 2016 California policy on vaccination coverage and prevalence of exemptions to vaccine requirements (nonmedical and medical). We used publicly available state-level data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on coverage of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination, nonmedical exemption, and medical exemption in children entering kindergarten. We used county-level data individually requested from state departments of public health on overall vaccine coverage and exemptions. Based on data availability, we included state-level data for 45 states, including California, from 2011 to 2017 and county-level data for 17 states from 2010 to 2017. The prespecified primary study outcome was MMR vaccination in the state analysis and overall vaccine coverage in the county analysis. In the state-level synthetic control analysis, MMR coverage in California increased by 3.3% relative to its synthetic control in the postpolicy period (top 2 of 43 states evaluated in the placebo tests, top 5%), nonmedical exemptions decreased by 2.4% (top 2 of 43 states evaluated in the placebo tests, top 5%), and medical exemptions increased by 0.4% (top 1 of 44 states evaluated in the placebo tests, top 2%). In the county-level analysis, overall vaccination coverage increased by 4.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.9%-5.8%, p < 0.001), nonmedical exemptions decreased by 3.9% (95% CI 2.4%-5.4%, p < 0.001), and medical exemptions increased by 2.4% (95% CI 2.0%-2.9%, p < 0.001). Changes in vaccination coverage across counties after the policy implementation from 2015 to 2017 ranged from -6% to 26%, with larger increases in coverage in counties with lower prepolicy vaccine coverage. Results were robust to alternative model specifications. The limitations of the study were the exclusion of a subset of US states from the analysis and the use of only 2 years of postpolicy data based on data availability. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, implementation of the California policy that eliminated nonmedical childhood vaccine exemptions was associated with an estimated increase in vaccination coverage and a reduction in nonmedical exemptions at state and county levels. The observed increase in medical exemptions was offset by the larger reduction in nonmedical exemptions. The largest increases in vaccine coverage were observed in the most "high-risk" counties, meaning those with the lowest prepolicy vaccine coverage. Our findings suggest that government policies removing nonmedical exemptions can be effective at increasing vaccination coverage.

Bone stress injuries in male distance runners: higher modified Female Athlete Triad Cumulative Risk Assessment scores predict increased rates of injury.

OBJECTIVES: Bone stress injuries (BSI) are common in runners of both sexes. The purpose of this study was to determine if a modified Female Athlete Triad Cumulative Risk Assessment tool would predict BSI in male distance runners. METHODS: 156 male runners at two collegiate programmes were studied using mixed retrospective and prospective design for a total of 7 years. Point values were assigned using risk assessment categories including low energy availability, low body mass index (BMI), low bone mineral density (BMD) and prior BSI. The outcome was subsequent development of BSI. Statistical models used a mixed effects Poisson regression model with p<0.05 as threshold for significance. Two regression analyses were performed: (1) baseline risk factors as the independent variable; and (2) annual change in risk factors (longitudinal data) as the independent variable. RESULTS: 42/156 runners (27%) sustained 61 BSIs over an average 1.9 years of follow-up. In the baseline risk factor model, each 1 point increase in prior BSI score was associated with a 57% increased risk for prospective BSI (p=0.0042) and each 1 point increase in cumulative risk score was associated with a 37% increase in prospective BSI risk (p=0.0079). In the longitudinal model, each 1 point increase in cumulative risk score was associated with a 27% increase in prospective BSI risk (p=0.05). BMI (rate ratio (RR)=1.91, p=0.11) and BMD (RR=1.58, p=0.19) risk scores were not associated with BSI. CONCLUSION: A modified cumulative risk assessment tool may help identify male runners at elevated risk for BSI. Identifying risk factors may guide treatment and prevention strategies.

Semantic Memory in the Clinical Progression of Alzheimer Disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Semantic memory measures may be useful in tracking and predicting progression of Alzheimer disease. We investigated relationships among semantic memory tasks and their 1-year predictive value in women with Alzheimer disease. METHODS: We conducted secondary analyses of a randomized clinical trial of raloxifene in 42 women with late-onset mild-to-moderate Alzheimer disease. We assessed semantic memory with tests of oral confrontation naming, category fluency, semantic recognition and semantic naming, and semantic density in written narrative discourse. We measured global cognition (Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale, cognitive subscale), dementia severity (Clinical Dementia Rating sum of boxes), and daily function (Activities of Daily Living Inventory) at baseline and 1 year. RESULTS: At baseline and 1 year, most semantic memory scores correlated highly or moderately with each other and with global cognition, dementia severity, and daily function. Semantic memory task performance at 1 year had worsened one-third to one-half standard deviation. Factor analysis of baseline test scores distinguished processes in semantic and lexical retrieval (semantic recognition, semantic naming, confrontation naming) from processes in lexical search (semantic density, category fluency). The semantic-lexical retrieval factor predicted global cognition at 1 year. Considered separately, baseline confrontation naming and category fluency predicted dementia severity, while semantic recognition and a composite of semantic recognition and semantic naming predicted global cognition. No individual semantic memory test predicted daily function. CONCLUSIONS: Semantic-lexical retrieval and lexical search may represent distinct aspects of semantic memory. Semantic memory processes are sensitive to cognitive decline and dementia severity in Alzheimer disease.

Obstructive Sleep Apnea Is an Independent Predictor of Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Cardiac Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a risk factor for development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after cardiac surgery. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. SETTING: Single-center university hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Five hundred forty-five patients in sinus rhythm preoperatively undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), aortic valve replacement, mitral valve replacement/repair, or combined valve/CABG surgery from January 2008 to April 2011. INTERVENTIONS: Retrospective review of medical records. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Postoperative atrial fibrillation was defined as atrial fibrillation requiring therapeutic intervention. Of 545 cardiac surgical patients, 226 (41%) patients developed POAF. The risk was higher in 72 OSA patients than 473 patients without OSA (67% v 38%, adjusted hazard ratio 1.83 [95% CI: 1.30-2.58], p<0.001). Of the 32 OSA patients who used home positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy, 18 (56%) developed POAF compared with 29 of 38 (76%) patients who did not use PAP at home (unadjusted hazard ratio 0.63 [95% CI: 0.35-1.15], p = 0.13). CONCLUSION: OSA is significantly associated with POAF in cardiac surgery patients. Further investigation is needed to determine whether or not use of positive airway pressure in OSA patients reduces the risk of POAF.

Eczema and sensitization to common allergens in the United States: a multiethnic, population-based study.

The relationship between food and environmental allergens in contributing to eczema risk is unclear on a multiethnic population level. Our purpose was to determine whether sensitization to specific dietary and environmental allergens as measured according to higher specific immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels is associated with eczema risk in children. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants ages 1 to 17 years were asked whether they had ever received a diagnosis of eczema from a physician (n = 538). Total and specific serum IgE levels for four dietary allergens (egg, cow's milk, peanut, and shrimp) and five environmental allergens (dust mite, cat, dog, Aspergillus, and Alternaria) were measured. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between eczema and IgE levels. In the United States, 10.4 million children (15.6%) have a history of eczema. Eczema was more common in black children (p < 0.001) and in children from families with higher income and education (p = 0.01). The median total IgE levels were higher in children with a history of eczema than in those without (66.4 vs 50.6 kU/L, p = 0.004). In multivariate analysis adjusted for age, race, sex, family income, household education, and physician-diagnosed asthma, eczema was significantly associated with sensitization to cat dander (odds ratio [OR] = 1.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05, 1.4, p = 0.009) and dog dander (OR = 1.5, 95% CI, 1.2, 1.7, p < 0.001). After correction for multiple comparisons, only sensitization to dog dander remained significant. U.S. children with eczema are most likely to be sensitized to dog dander. Future prospective studies should further explore this relationship.

The association between overuse and musculoskeletal injuries and the female athlete triad in Division I collegiate athletes.

INTRODUCTION: Although the female athlete triad (Triad) has been associated with increased risk of bone-stress injuries (BSIs), limited research among collegiate athletes has addressed the associations between the Triad and non-BSI injuries. OBJECTIVE: To elucidate the relationship between Triad and both BSI and non-BSI in female athletes. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Primary and tertiary care student athlete clinic. PARTICIPANTS: National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I female athletes at a single institution. INTERVENTION: Participants completed a pre-participation questionnaire and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry, which was used to generate a Triad cumulative risk assessment score (Triad score). The number of overuse musculoskeletal injuries that occurred while the athletes were still competing collegiately were identified through chart review. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: BSI and non-BSI were treated as count variables. The association between BSI, non-BSI, and Triad score was measured using Poisson regression to calculate rate ratios. RESULTS: Of 239 athletes, 43% of athletes (n = 103) sustained at least one injury. Of those, 40% (n = 95) sustained at least one non-BSI and 10% (n = 24) sustained at least one BSI over an average follow-up 2.5 years. After accounting for sport type (non-lean, runner, other endurance sport, or other lean advantage sport) and baseline age, we found that every additional Triad score risk point was associated with a significant 17% increase in the rate of BSI (rate ratio [RR] 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03-1.33; p = .016). However, Triad score was unrelated to non-BSI (1.00, 95% CI 0.91-1.11; p = .99). Compared with athletes in non-lean sports (n = 108), athletes in other lean advantage sports (n = 30) had an increased rate of non-BSI (RR: 2.09, p = .004) whereas distance runners (n = 46) had increased rates of BSI (RR: 7.65, p < .001) and non-BSI (RR: 2.25, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Higher Triad score is associated with an increased risk of BSI but not non-BSI in collegiate athletes.

With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility: Common Errors in Meta-Analyses and Meta-Regressions in Strength & Conditioning Research.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Meta-analysis and meta-regression are often highly cited and may influence practice. Unfortunately, statistical errors in meta-analyses are widespread and can lead to flawed conclusions. The purpose of this article was to review common statistical errors in meta-analyses and to document their frequency in highly cited meta-analyses from strength and conditioning research. METHODS: We identified five errors in one highly cited meta-regression from strength and conditioning research: implausible outliers; overestimated effect sizes that arise from confusing standard deviation with standard error; failure to account for correlated observations; failure to account for within-study variance; and a focus on within-group rather than between-group results. We then quantified the frequency of these errors in 20 of the most highly cited meta-analyses in the field of strength and conditioning research from the past 20 years. RESULTS: We found that 85% of the 20 most highly cited meta-analyses in strength and conditioning research contained statistical errors. Almost half (45%) contained at least one effect size that was mistakenly calculated using standard error rather than standard deviation. In several cases, this resulted in obviously wrong effect sizes, for example, effect sizes of 11 or 14 standard deviations. Additionally, 45% failed to account for correlated observations despite including numerous effect sizes from the same study and often from the same group within the same study. CONCLUSIONS: Statistical errors in meta-analysis and meta-regression are common in strength and conditioning research. We highlight five errors that authors, editors, and readers should check for when preparing or critically reviewing meta-analyses.

Homeopathy can offer empirical insights on treatment effects in a null field.

OBJECTIVES: A "null field" is a scientific field where there is nothing to discover and where observed associations are thus expected to simply reflect the magnitude of bias. We aimed to characterize a null field using a known example, homeopathy (a pseudoscientific medical approach based on using highly diluted substances), as a prototype. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We identified 50 randomized placebo-controlled trials of homeopathy interventions from highly cited meta-analyses. The primary outcome variable was the observed effect size in the studies. Variables related to study quality or impact were also extracted. RESULTS: The mean effect size for homeopathy was 0.36 standard deviations (Hedges' g; 95% confidence interval: 0.21, 0.51) better than placebo, which corresponds to an odds ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.69, 2.23) in favor of homeopathy. 80% of studies had positive effect sizes (favoring homeopathy). Effect size was significantly correlated with citation counts from journals in the directory of open-access journals and CiteWatch. We identified common statistical errors in 25 studies. CONCLUSION: A null field like homeopathy can exhibit large effect sizes, high rates of favorable results, and high citation impact in the published scientific literature. Null fields may represent a useful negative control for the scientific process.

Healthy Runner Project: a 7-year, multisite nutrition education intervention to reduce bone stress injury incidence in collegiate distance runners.

Objectives: We evaluated the effect of a nutrition education intervention on bone stress injury (BSI) incidence among female distance runners at two NCAA Division I institutions. Methods: Historical BSI rates were measured retrospectively (2010-2013); runners were then followed prospectively in pilot (2013-2016) and intervention (2016-2020) phases. The primary aim was to compare BSI rates in the historical and intervention phases. Pilot phase data are included only for descriptive purposes. The intervention comprised team nutrition presentations focused on optimising energy availability plus individualised nutrition sessions for runners with elevated Female Athlete Triad risk. Annual BSI rates were calculated using a generalised estimating equation Poisson regression model adjusted for age and institution. Post hoc analyses were stratified by institution and BSI type (trabecular-rich or cortical-rich). Results: The historical phase included 56 runners and 90.2 person-years; the intervention phase included 78 runners and 137.3 person-years. Overall BSI rates were not reduced from the historical (0.52 events per person-year) to the intervention (0.43 events per person-year) phase. Post hoc analyses demonstrated trabecular-rich BSI rates dropped significantly from 0.18 to 0.10 events per person-year from the historical to intervention phase (p=0.047). There was a significant interaction between phase and institution (p=0.009). At Institution 1, the overall BSI rate dropped from 0.63 to 0.27 events per person-year from the historical to intervention phase (p=0.041), whereas no decline was observed at Institution 2. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that a nutrition intervention emphasising energy availability may preferentially impact trabecular-rich BSI and depend on team environment, culture and resources.

Sun protective behaviors and vitamin D levels in the US population: NHANES 2003-2006.

BACKGROUND: Sun protection is recommended for skin cancer prevention, yet little is known about the role of sun protection on vitamin D levels. Our aim was to investigate the relationship between different types of sun protective behaviors and serum 25(OH)D levels in the general US population. METHODS: Cross-sectional, nationally representative survey of 5,920 adults aged 18-60 years in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2006. We analyzed questionnaire responses on sun protective behaviors: staying in the shade, wearing long sleeves, wearing a hat, using sunscreen and SPF level. Analyses were adjusted for multiple confounders of 25(OH)D levels and stratified by race. Our primary outcome measures were serum 25(OH)D levels (ng/ml) measured by radioimmunoassay and vitamin D deficiency, defined as 25(OH)D levels <20 ng/ml. RESULTS: Staying in the shade and wearing long sleeves were significantly associated with lower 25(OH)D levels. Subjects who reported frequent use of shade on a sunny day had -3.5 ng/ml (p (trend) < 0.001) lower 25(OH)D levels compared to subjects who reported rare use. Subjects who reported frequent use of long sleeves had -2.2 ng/ml (p (trend) = 0.001) lower 25(OH)D levels. These associations were strongest for whites, and did not reach statistical significance among Hispanics or blacks. White participants who reported frequently staying in the shade or wearing long sleeves had double the odds of vitamin D deficiency compared with those who rarely did so. Neither wearing a hat nor using sunscreen was associated with low 25(OH)D levels or vitamin D deficiency. CONCLUSIONS: White individuals who protect themselves from the sun by seeking shade or wearing long sleeves may have lower 25(OH)D levels and be at risk for vitamin D deficiency. Frequent sunscreen use does not appear to be linked to vitamin D deficiency in this population.

Adherence to contemporary antiretroviral treatment regimens and impact on immunological and virologic outcomes in a US healthcare system.

BACKGROUND: Only a few recent reports have examined longitudinal adherence patterns in US clinics and its impact on immunological and virological outcomes among large cohorts initiating contemporary antiretroviral therapy (ART) in US clinics. METHODS: We followed all persons with HIV (PLWH) in a California clinic population initiating ART between 2010 and 2017. We estimated longitudinal adherence for each PLWH by calculating the medication possession ratio within multiple 6-month intervals using pharmacy refill records. RESULTS: During the study, 2315 PWLH were followed for a median time of 210.8 weeks and only 179 (7.7%) were lost-to-follow-up. The mean adherence was 84.9%. Age (Hazard Ratio (HR): (95% confidence interval): 1.25 (1.20-1.31) per 10-year increase) and Black race (HR: 0.62 (0.53-0.73) vs. White) were associated with adherence in the cohort. A 10% percent increase in adherence increased the odds of being virally suppressed by 37% (OR and 95% CI: 1.37 [1.33-1.41]) and was associated with an increase in mean CD4 count by 8.54 cells/ul in the next 6-month interval (p-value <0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that despite large improvements in retention in care, demographic disparities in adherence to ART persist. Adherence was lower among younger patients and black patients. Our study confirmed the strong association between adherence to ART and viral suppression but could only establish a weak association between adherence and CD4 count. These findings reaffirm the importance of adherence and retention in care and further highlight the need for tailored patient-centered HIV Care Models as a strategy to improve PLWH's outcomes.

Female Athlete Triad Risk Factors Are More Strongly Associated With Trabecular-Rich Versus Cortical-Rich Bone Stress Injuries in Collegiate Athletes.

Background: Bone stress injuries (BSIs) are common in athletes. Risk factors for BSI may differ by skeletal anatomy and relative contribution of trabecular-rich and cortical-rich bone. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that Female Athlete Triad (Triad) risk factors would be more strongly associated with BSIs sustained at trabecular-rich versus cortical-rich skeletal sites. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Methods: The study population comprised 321 female National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I athletes participating in 16 sports from 2008 to 2014. Triad risk factors and a Triad cumulative risk score were assessed using responses to preparticipation examination and dual energy x-ray absorptiometry to measure lumbar spine and whole-body bone mineral density (BMD). Sports-related BSIs were diagnosed by a physician and confirmed radiologically. Athletes were grouped into those sustaining a subsequent trabecular-rich BSI, a subsequent cortical-rich BSI, and those without a BSI. Data were analyzed with multinomial logistic regression adjusted for participation in cross-country running versus other sports. Results: A total of 19 participants sustained a cortical-rich BSI (6%) and 10 sustained a trabecular-rich BSI (3%) over the course of collegiate sports participation. The Triad cumulative risk score was significantly related to both trabecular-rich and cortical-rich BSI. However, lower BMD and weight were associated with significantly greater risk for trabecular-rich than cortical-rich BSIs. For every value lower than 1 SD, the odds ratios (95% CIs) for trabecular-rich versus cortical-rich BSI were 3.08 (1.25-7.56) for spine BMD; 2.38 (1.22-4.64) for whole-body BMD; and 5.26 (1.48-18.70) for weight. Taller height was a significantly better predictor of cortical-rich than trabecular-rich BSI. Conclusion: The Triad cumulative risk score was significantly associated with both trabecular-rich and cortical-rich BSI, but Triad-related risk factors appeared more strongly related to trabecular-rich BSI. In particular, low BMD and low weight were associated with significantly higher increases in the risk of trabecular-rich BSI than cortical-rich BSI. These findings suggest Triad risk factors are more common in athletes sustaining BSI in trabecular-rich than cortical-rich locations.

Ordinal Prediction Model of 90-Day Modified Rankin Scale in Ischemic Stroke.

Background and Purpose: Prediction models for functional outcomes after ischemic stroke are useful for statistical analyses in clinical trials and guiding patient expectations. While there are models predicting dichotomous functional outcomes after ischemic stroke, there are no models that predict ordinal mRS outcomes. We aimed to create a model that predicts, at the time of hospital discharge, a patient's modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score on day 90 after ischemic stroke. Methods: We used data from three multi-center prospective studies: CRISP, DEFUSE 2, and DEFUSE 3 to derive and validate an ordinal logistic regression model that predicts the 90-day mRS score based on variables available during the stroke hospitalization. Forward selection was used to retain independent significant variables in the multivariable model. Results: The prediction model was derived using data on 297 stroke patients from the CRISP and DEFUSE 2 studies. National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at discharge and age were retained as significant (p < 0.001) independent predictors of the 90-day mRS score. When applied to the external validation set (DEFUSE 3, n = 160), the model accurately predicted the 90-day mRS score within one point for 78% of the patients in the validation cohort. Conclusions: A simple model using age and NIHSS score at time of discharge can predict 90-day mRS scores in patients with ischemic stroke. This model can be useful for prognostication in routine clinical care and to impute missing data in clinical trials.