The hidden curve behind COVID-19 outbreak: the impact of delay in treatment initiation in cancer patients and how to mitigate the additional risk of dying-the head and neck cancer model.

PURPOSE: The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic around the world caused most healthcare services to turn substantial attention to treatment of these patients and also to alter the structure of healthcare systems to address an infectious disease. As a result, many cancer patients had their treatment deferred during the pandemic, increasing the time-to-treatment initiation, the number of untreated patients (which will alter the dynamics of healthcare delivery in the post-pandemic era) and increasing their risk of death. Hence, we analyzed the impact on global cancer mortality considering the decline in oncology care during the COVID-19 outbreak using head and neck cancer, a known time-dependent disease, as a model. METHODS: An online practical tool capable of predicting the risk of cancer patients dying due to the COVID-19 outbreak and also useful for mitigation strategies after the peak of the pandemic has been developed, based on a mathematical model. The scenarios were estimated by information of 15 oncological services worldwide, given a perspective from the five continents and also some simulations were conducted at world demographic data. RESULTS: The model demonstrates that the more that cancer care was maintained during the outbreak and also the more it is increased during the mitigation period, the shorter will be the recovery, lessening the additional risk of dying due to time-to-treatment initiation. CONCLUSIONS: This impact of COVID-19 pandemic on cancer patients is inevitable, but it is possible to minimize it with an effort measured by the proposed model.

Identification of secondary predictive factors for acute hypocalcemia following thyroidectomy in patients with low postoperative parathyroid hormone levels without overt calcium deficiency: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The transient acute hypocalcemia (HypoCa) is the most prevalent complication after total thyroidectomy, detected primarily by subnormal intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) and calcium levels. However, the need for calcium supplementation is ambiguous in patients who exhibit low iPTH with normal calcium levels. The aim of this study was to evaluate complementary predictors of HypoCa in this scenario. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study with of 1597 consecutive patients undergoing total thyroidectomy, with or without neck dissection, from January 2014 to December 2018 at a single institution. Patients with an iPTH <12 pg/mL and a total calcium level ≥8 mg/dL in the first 8 h after surgery were included. RESULTS: 1597 patients identified with low postoperative iPTH without overt calcium deficiency was diagnosed. The transient HypoCa in that specific subgroup was 509 (31.9%). Multivariate analysis indicated that HYPOCA was associated with bilateral level VI neck dissection and pre- to postoperative calcium reduction >38 pg/mL. To better illustrate the model, we plotted a nomogram with the variables selected for the final model. CONCLUSION: Total thyroidectomy patients who exhibit low postoperative iPTH levels without overt calcium deficiency should be considered for calcium replacement therapy when they a marked drop in iPTH postoperatively and underwent bilateral level VI neck dissection.