Social Frailty Index: Development and validation of an index of social attributes predictive of mortality in older adults.

While social characteristics are well-known predictors of mortality, prediction models rely almost exclusively on demographics, medical comorbidities, and function. Lacking an efficient way to summarize the prognostic impact of social factor, many studies exclude social factors altogether. Our objective was to develop and validate a summary measure of social risk and determine its ability to risk-stratify beyond traditional risk models. We examined participants in the Health and Retirement Study, a longitudinal, survey of US older adults. We developed the model from a comprehensive inventory of 183 social characteristics using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, a penalized regression approach. Then, we assessed the predictive capacity of the model and its ability to improve on traditional prediction models. We studied 8,250 adults aged ≥65 y. Within 4 y of the baseline interview, 22% had died. Drawn from 183 possible predictors, the Social Frailty Index included age, gender, and eight social predictors: neighborhood cleanliness, perceived control over financial situation, meeting with children less than yearly, not working for pay, active with children, volunteering, feeling isolated, and being treated with less courtesy or respect. In the validation cohort, predicted and observed mortality were strongly correlated. Additionally, the Social Frailty Index meaningfully risk-stratified participants beyond the Charlson score (medical comorbidity index) and the Lee Index (comorbidity and function model). The Social Frailty Index includes age, gender, and eight social characteristics and accurately risk-stratifies older adults. The model improves upon commonly used risk prediction tools and has application in clinical, population health, and research settings.

Comparative effectiveness of long-term acute care hospital versus skilled nursing facility transfer.

BACKGROUND: Long-term acute care hospital (LTACH) use varies considerably across the U.S., which may reflect uncertainty about the effectiveness of LTACHs vs. skilled nursing facilities (SNF), the principal post-acute care alternative. Given that LTACHs provide more intensive care and thus receive over triple the reimbursement of SNFs for comparable diagnoses, we sought to compare outcomes and spending between LTACH versus SNF transfer. METHODS: Using Medicare claims linked to electronic health record (EHR) data from six Texas Hospitals between 2009 and 2010, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized on a medicine service in a high-LTACH use region and discharged to either an LTACH or SNF and followed for one year. The primary outcomes included mortality, 60-day recovery without inpatient care, days at home, and healthcare spending RESULTS: Of 3503 patients, 18% were transferred to an LTACH. Patients transferred to LTACHs were younger (median 71 vs. 82 years), less likely to be female (50.5 vs 66.6%) and white (69.0 vs. 84.1%), but were sicker (24.3 vs. 14.2% for prolonged intensive care unit stay; median diagnosis resource intensity weight of 2.03 vs. 1.38). In unadjusted analyses, patients transferred to an LTACH vs. SNF were less likely to survive (59.1 vs. 65.0%) or recover (62.5 vs 66.0%), and spent fewer days at home (186 vs. 200). Adjusting for demographic and clinical confounders available in Medicare claims and EHR data, LTACH transfer was not significantly associated with differences in mortality (HR, 1.12, 95% CI, 0.94-1.33), recovery (SHR, 1.07, 0.93-1.23), and days spent at home (IRR, 0.96, 0.83-1.10), but was associated with greater Medicare spending ($16,689 for one year, 95% CI, $12,216-$21,162). CONCLUSION: LTACH transfer for Medicare beneficiaries is associated with similar clinical outcomes but with higher healthcare spending compared to SNF transfer. LTACH use should be reserved for patients who require complex inpatient care and cannot be cared for in SNFs.

Effect of Variation in Published Stroke Rates on the Net Clinical Benefit of Anticoagulation for Atrial Fibrillation.

Background: Stroke rates in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF) who are not receiving anticoagulant therapy vary widely across published studies; the resulting effect on the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation in AF is unknown. Objective: To determine the effect of variation in published AF stroke rates on the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation. Design: Markov model decision analysis. Warfarin was the base case, and non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) were modeled in a secondary analysis. Setting: Community-dwelling adults. Patients: 33 434 adults with incident AF. Measurements: Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Results: Of the 33 434 patients, 27 179 had a CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes, stroke, and vascular disease) score of 2 or more. The population benefit of warfarin anticoagulation for these patients was least using stroke rates from the ATRIA (AnTicoagulation and Risk Factors In Atrial Fibrillation) study and greatest using those from the Danish National Patient Registry (6290 QALYs [95% CI, ±2.3%] vs. 24 110 QALYs [CI, ±1.9%]; P < 0.001). The optimal CHA2DS2-VASc score threshold for anticoagulation was 3 or more using stroke rates from ATRIA, 2 or more using those from the Swedish AF cohort study, 1 or more using those from the SPORTIF (Stroke Prevention using ORal Thrombin Inhibitor in atrial Fibrillation) study, and 0 or more using those from the Danish National Patient Registry. Accounting for lower rates of NOAC-associated intracranial hemorrhage decreased optimal CHA2DS2-VASc score thresholds, but these thresholds still varied widely. Limitation: Measured benefit may not generalize to other populations. Conclusion: Variation in published AF stroke rates for patients not receiving anticoagulant therapy results in multifold variation in the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation. Guidelines should better reflect the uncertainty in current thresholds of stroke risk score for recommending anticoagulation. Primary Funding Source: None.

Use of Lecanemab for Patients With Cardiovascular Disease: The Challenge of Uncertainty.

This Viewpoint discusses lecanemab use and the risk of cerebral macrohemorrhage for patients with mild cognitive impairment or early dementia.

Targeted Reminder Phone Calls to Patients at High Risk of No-Show for Primary Care Appointment: A Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: No-shows, or missed appointments, are a problem for many medical practices. They result in fragmented care and reduce access for all patients. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether telephone reminder calls targeted to patients at high risk of no-show can reduce no-show rates. DESIGN: Single-center randomized controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2247 primary care patients in a hospital-based primary care clinic at high risk of no-show (>15 % risk) for their appointment in 7 days. INTERVENTION: Seven days prior to their appointment, intervention arm patients were placed in a calling queue to receive a reminder phone call from a patient service coordinator. Coordinators were trained to engage patients in concrete planning. All patients received an automated phone call (usual care). MAIN MEASURES: Primary outcome was no-show rate. Secondary outcomes included arrival rate, cancellation rate, reschedule rate, time to cancellation, and change in revenue. KEY RESULTS: The no-show rate in the intervention arm (22.8 %) was significantly lower (absolute risk difference -6.4 %, p < 0.01, 95 % CI [-9.8 to -3.0 %]) than that in the control arm (29.2 %). Arrival, cancellation, and reschedule rates did not differ significantly. In the intervention arm, rescheduling and cancellations occurred further in advance of the appointment (mean difference, 0.35 days; 95 % CI [0.07-0.64]; p = 0.01). Reimbursement did not differ significantly. CONCLUSIONS: A phone call 7 days prior to an appointment led to a significant reduction in no-shows and increased reimbursement among patients at high risk of no-show. The use of targeted interventions may be of interest to practices taking on increased accountability for population health.

Appointment "no-shows" are an independent predictor of subsequent quality of care and resource utilization outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals at high risk for suboptimal outcomes is an important goal of healthcare delivery systems. Appointment no-shows may be an important risk predictor. OBJECTIVES: To test the hypothesis that patients with a high propensity to "no-show" for appointments will have worse clinical and acute care utilization outcomes compared to patients with a lower propensity. DESIGN: We calculated the no-show propensity factor (NSPF) for patients of a large academic primary care network using 5 years of outpatient appointment data. NSPF corrects for patients with fewer appointments to avoid over-weighting of no-show visits in such patients. We divided patients into three NSPF risk groups and evaluated the association between NSPF and clinical and acute care utilization outcomes after adjusting for baseline patient characteristics. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 140,947 patients who visited a network practice from January 1, 2007, through December 31, 2009, and were either connected to a primary care physician or to a primary care practice, based on a previously validated algorithm. MAIN MEASURES: Outcomes of interest were incomplete colorectal, cervical, and breast cancer screening, and above-goal hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels at 1-year follow-up, and hospitalizations and emergency department visits in the subsequent 3 years. KEY RESULTS: Compared to patients in the low NSPF group, patients in the high NSPF group (n=14,081) were significantly more likely to have incomplete preventive cancer screening (aOR 2.41 [2.19-.66] for colorectal, aOR 1.85 [1.65-.08] for cervical, aOR 2.93 [2.62-3.28] for breast cancer), above-goal chronic disease control measures (aOR 2.64 [2.22-3.14] for HbA1c, aOR 1.39 [1.15-1.67] for LDL], and increased rates of acute care utilization (aRR 1.37 [1.31-1.44] for hospitalization, aRR 1.39 [1.35-1.43] for emergency department visits). CONCLUSIONS: NSPF is an independent predictor of suboptimal primary care outcomes and acute care utilization. NSPF may play an important role in helping healthcare systems identify high-risk patients.

Hazardous Alcohol Use Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults With Persistent or Recurrent Pain: Findings From the Health and Retirement Study.

BACKGROUND: Although pain and alcohol use are highly prevalent and associated with deleterious health outcomes among older adults, a paucity of literature has examined hazardous drinking among older adults with pain. We aimed to examine the prevalence of hazardous drinking among a nationally representative sample of older adults with persistent or recurrent pain. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analyses of data collected from the 2018 wave of the Health and Retirement Study. Participants included 1  549 community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 with persistent or recurrent pain (ie, clinically significant pain present at 2 consecutive survey waves). RESULTS: More than one-quarter of older adults with persistent or recurrent pain reported regular alcohol use (≥weekly), nearly half of whom reported hazardous patterns of drinking. Specifically, 32% reported excessive drinking (ie, >2 drinks per day for older men; >1 drink per day for older women), and 22% reported binge drinking (ie, ≥4 drinks on one occasion). Exploratory analyses revealed a high prevalence of hazardous drinking among the subsample of older adults who used opioids (47%). CONCLUSIONS: Hazardous alcohol use-including both excessive and binge drinking-is common among older adults with persistent or recurrent pain, including those who take opioids. Given that hazardous drinking can complicate pain management and increase the risk for adverse opioid effects (eg, overdose), the current findings underscore the importance of assessing and addressing hazardous patterns of alcohol use among older adults with persistent or recurrent pain.

"I'm worth saving"- A Qualitative Study of People with Alzheimer's Disease Considering Lecanemab Treatment.

Importance: People with Alzheimer's disease (AD) now have access to disease-modifying treatment with anti-amyloid monoclonal antibodies (mAbs). Their perception of risks and benefits and approach to treatment decisions remain unknown. Objective: To understand how people with early AD consider benefits and costs of anti-amyloid mAbs and make decisions about treatment. Design: Qualitative semi-structured interviews. Setting: Memory care clinics at two academic medical centers. Participants: People with biomarker or imaging-confirmed early AD referred for evaluation for treatment with anti-amyloid mAbs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Themes identified through content analysis. Results: Among 22 participants, mean age was 70 years, 8 (36%) were women, 22 (100%) were White, 8 (36%) had less than a college degree, 11 (50%) had annual income less than $100,000, and 6 (27%) lived in a rural area. The analysis revealed 3 major themes and associated subthemes: 1) People with AD sought and obtained information from different sources-advocacy organizations, the Internet, and clinicians; 2) hopes, expected benefits, and the existential threat of dementia drove willingness and readiness to start lecanemab-hopes included more time feeling like themselves and doing enjoyable activities; expected benefits included stalling progression, reversing cognitive decline or cure; 3) individual traits and preferences, family factors, and degree of trust in expertise influenced how people balanced risks and benefits- some would accept treatment at any cost; others carefully weighed risks and burdens carefully, but were motivated to pursue treatment by supportive families, insurance coverage, and trust in expertise; for a few, costs decidedly outweighed their personal benefits. People with AD desired more individualized information on risks and benefits and wanted to hear more from patients who took the medication. Conclusions and Relevance: Results from this qualitative analysis inform clinician, health system and policy efforts to promote individualized treatment decisions for anti-amyloid mAb treatment through multimodal education and outreach, evidence-based communication skills, and adaptation of similar care models. Key Points: Question: How do people with Alzheimer's disease (AD) decide on treatment with newly available anti-amyloid monoclonal antibodies?Findings: In this qualitative analysis, people with AD considering treatment relied on multiple information sources; were motivated by hope to delay cognitive decline and preserve independence; and worried side effects would impair quality of life. Personality traits, family support, and trust in expertise determined how they balanced these tradeoffs. People with AD wanted more personalized information and to hear from others who had taken the medications.Meaning: As access to treatment expands, these findings inform how clinicians can help people with AD make individualized treatment decisions.

Management of atrial fibrillation in older adults.

Most people with atrial fibrillation are older adults, in whom atrial fibrillation co-occurs with other chronic conditions, polypharmacy, and geriatric syndromes such as frailty. Yet most randomized controlled trials and expert guidelines use an age agnostic approach. Given the heterogeneity of aging, these data may not be universally applicable across the spectrum of older adults. This review synthesizes the available evidence and applies rigorous principles of aging science. After contextualizing the burden of comorbidities and geriatric syndromes in people with atrial fibrillation, it applies an aging focused approach to the pillars of atrial fibrillation management, describing screening for atrial fibrillation, lifestyle interventions, symptoms and complications, rate and rhythm control, coexisting heart failure, anticoagulation therapy, and left atrial appendage occlusion devices. Throughout, a framework is suggested that prioritizes patients' goals and applies existing evidence to all older adults, whether atrial fibrillation is their sole condition, one among many, or a bystander at the end of life.

Prospective Monitoring of New Drugs in Older Adults with and without Frailty: Near-Real-Time Assessment of Effectiveness and Safety of Oral Anticoagulants in Medicare Data.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Prospective sequential analyses after a new drug approval allow proactive surveillance of new drugs. In the current study, we demonstrate feasibility of frailty-specific sequential analyses for dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban versus warfarin. METHODS: We partitioned Medicare data from 2011 to 2020 into datasets based on calendar year following the date of drug approval. Each calendar year of data was added sequentially for analysis. We used a new-user, active comparative design by comparing the initiators of dabigatran versus warfarin, rivaroxaban versus warfarin, and apixaban versus warfarin. Patients aged ≥ 65 years with atrial fibrillation without contraindication to the anticoagulants were included. Claims-based frailty index ≥ 0.25 was used to define frailty. The initiators of each direct oral anticoagulant were propensity-score matched to the initiators of warfarin within each frailty status. The effectiveness outcome was ischemic stroke or systemic thromboembolism, and the safety outcome was major bleeding. For each calendar year, we estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from Cox proportional hazards models using all data available up to that year. RESULTS: As an example of the results, in the 2020 dataset, compared with warfarin, apixaban was associated with a reduced risk of ischemic stroke or systemic thromboembolism (frail: HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.63-0.85; non-frail: HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.59-0.72) and major bleeding (frail: HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.57-0.69; non-frail: HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.56-0.63) in both frail and non-frail patients. We found evidence for apixaban's effectiveness and safety within 1-2 years after the drug approval in frail older patients. CONCLUSION: Our frailty-specific sequential analyses can be applied to future near-real-time monitoring of newly approved drugs.

Estimating Vitamin K Antagonist Anticoagulation Benefit in People With Atrial Fibrillation Accounting for Competing Risks: Evidence From 12 Randomized Trials.

BACKGROUND: Patients with atrial fibrillation have a high mortality rate that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. The competing risk of death may affect the expected anticoagulant benefit. We determined if competing risks materially affect the guideline-endorsed estimate of anticoagulant benefit. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of 12 randomized controlled trials that randomized patients with atrial fibrillation to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or either placebo or antiplatelets. For each participant, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of VKAs to prevent stroke or systemic embolism using 2 methods-first using a guideline-endorsed model (CHA2DS2-VASc) and then again using a competing risk model that uses the same inputs as CHA2DS2-VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for nonlinear growth in benefit. We compared the absolute and relative differences in estimated benefit and whether the differences varied by life expectancy. RESULTS: A total of 7933 participants (median age, 73 years, 36% women) had a median life expectancy of 8 years (interquartile range, 6-12), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables and 43% were randomized to VKAs. The CHA2DS2-VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the competing risk model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% [interquartile range, 4.7%-10.0%] versus 5.2% [interquartile range, 3.5%-7.4%]; P<0.001). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA2DS2-VASc model - competing risk model 3-year risk) was -1.3% (95% CI, -1.3% to -1.2%); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 4.7% (95% CI, 4.5%-5.0%). CONCLUSIONS: VKA anticoagulants were exceptionally effective at reducing stroke risk. However, VKA benefits were misestimated with CHA2DS2-VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced when life expectancy was low and when the benefit was estimated over a multiyear horizon.

Identifying a Heterogeneous Effect of Atrial Fibrillation Screening in Older Adults: A Secondary Analysis of the VITAL-AF Trial.

Background: One-time atrial fibrillation (AF) screening trials have produced mixed results; however, it is unclear if there is a subset for whom screening is effective. Identifying such a subgroup would support targeted screening. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of VITAL-AF, a randomized trial of one-time, single-lead ECG screening during primary care visits. We tested two approaches to identify a subgroup where screening is effective. First, we developed an effect-based model using a T-learner. Specifically, we separately predicted the likelihood of AF diagnosis under screening and usual care conditions; the difference in probabilities was the predicted screening effect. Second, we used a validated AF risk model to test for a heterogeneous screening effect. We used interaction testing to determine if observed AF diagnosis rates in the screening and usual care groups differed when stratified by decile of the predicted screening effect and predicted AF risk. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar between the screening (n=15187) and usual care (n=15078) groups (mean age 74 years, 59% female). In the effect-based analysis, in the highest decile of predicted screening effectiveness (n=3026), AF diagnosis rates were higher in the screening group (6.50 vs. 3.06 per 100 person-years, rate difference 3.45, 95%CI 1.62 to 5.28). In this group, the mean age was 84 years and 68% were female. The risk-based analysis did not identify a subgroup where screening was more effective. Predicted screening effectiveness and predicted baseline AF risk were poorly correlated (Spearman coefficient 0.13). Conclusions: In a secondary analysis of the VITAL-AF trial, we identified a small subgroup where one-time screening was associated with increased AF diagnoses using an effect-based approach. In this study, predicted AF risk was a poor proxy for predicted screening effectiveness. These data caution against the assumption that high AF risk is necessarily correlated with high screening effectiveness.

Sarcopenia, adiposity and large discordance between cystatin C and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate in patients with cancer.

BACKGROUND: Creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRCRE) may overestimate kidney function in patients with sarcopenia. While cystatin C-based eGFR (eGFRCYS) is less affected by muscle mass, it may underestimate kidney function in patients with obesity. We sought to evaluate the relationship between body composition defined by computed tomography (CT) scans and discordance between creatinine, eGFRCRE and eGFRCYS in adult patients with cancer. METHODS: This study is a cross-sectional study of consecutive adults with cancer with an abdominal CT scan performed within 90 days of simultaneous eGFRCRE and eGFRCYS measurements between May 2010 and January 2022. Muscle and adipose tissue cross-sectional areas were measured at the level of the third lumbar vertebral body using a validated deep-learning pipeline. CT-defined sarcopenia was defined using independent sex-specific cut-offs for skeletal muscle index (<39 cm2/m2 for women and <55 cm2/m2 for men). High adiposity was defined as the highest sex-specific quartile of the total (visceral plus subcutaneous) adiposity index in the cohort. The primary outcome was eGFR discordance, defined by eGFRCYS > 30% lower than eGFRCRE; the secondary outcome was eGFRCYS > 50% lower than eGFRCRE. The odds of eGFR discordance were estimated using multivariable logistic regression modelling. Unadjusted spline regression was used to evaluate the relationship between skeletal muscle index and the difference between eGFRCYS and eGFRCRE. RESULTS: Of the 545 included patients (mean age 63 ± 14 years, 300 [55%] females, 440 [80.7%] non-Hispanic white), 320 (58.7%) met the criteria for CT-defined sarcopenia, and 136 (25%) had high adiposity. A total of 259 patients (48%) had >30% eGFR discordance, and 122 (22.4%) had >50% eGFR discordance. After adjustment for potential confounders, CT-defined sarcopenia and high adiposity were both associated with >30% eGFR discordance (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-3.24; aOR 2.01, 95% CI 1.15-3.52, respectively) and >50% eGFR discordance (aOR 2.34, 95% CI 1.21-4.51; aOR 2.23, 95% CI 1.19-4.17, respectively). A spline model demonstrated that as skeletal muscle index decreases, the predicted difference between eGFRCRE and eGFRCYS widens considerably. CONCLUSIONS: CT-defined sarcopenia and high adiposity are both independently associated with large eGFR discordance. Incorporating valuable information from body composition analysis derived from CT scans performed as a part of routine cancer care can impact the interpretation of GFR estimates.

Development and applicability of a risk assessment tool for hospital-acquired mobility impairment in ambulatory older adults.

BACKGROUND: Mobility loss is common in hospitalized older adults, and resources to prevent mobility impairment are finite. Our goal was to use routinely collected data to develop a risk assessment tool that identifies individuals at risk of losing the ability to walk during hospitalization on the first hospital day. Second, we determined if the tool could inform the use of mobility-preserving interventions. METHODS: We included patients admitted to a general medical service, aged ≥65 years, who walked occasionally or frequently on admission (Braden Scale Activity subset > = 3). Patients were considered to have a new mobility impairment if, at discharge, their ability to walk was severely limited or nonexistent or they were confined to bed (Braden Scale Activity subset <3). We used predictors available on the first hospital day to develop (2017-18 cohort) and validate (2019 cohort) a risk assessment tool. We determined the association between predicted risk and therapy use in the validation cohort to highlight the model's clinical utility. RESULTS: 5542 patients were included (median age 76 years, 48% women); 7.6% were discharged unable to walk. The model included 5 predictors: age, medication administrations, Glasgow Coma Scale verbal score, serum albumin, and urinary catheter presence. In the validation cohort, the model discriminated well (c-statistic 0.75) and was strongly associated with hospital-acquired mobility impairment (lowest decile 1%, highest decile 25%). In the validation cohort, therapy consultation ordering increased linearly with predicted risk; however, observed mobility impairment increased exponentially. CONCLUSION: The tool assesses the risk of mobility impairment in all ambulatory hospitalized older adults on the first hospital day. Further, it identifies at-risk older adults who may benefit from mobility interventions.

Can markers of disease severity improve the predictive power of claims-based multimorbidity indices?

BACKGROUND: Claims-based measures of multimorbidity, which evaluate the presence of a defined list of diseases, are limited in their ability to predict future outcomes. We evaluated whether claims-based markers of disease severity could improve assessments of multimorbid burden. METHODS: We developed 7 dichotomous markers of disease severity which could be applied to a range of diseases using claims data. These markers were based on the number of disease-associated outpatient visits, emergency department visits, and hospitalizations made by an individual over a defined interval; whether an individual with a given disease had outpatient visits to a specialist who typically treats that disease; and ICD-9 codes which connote more versus less advanced or symptomatic manifestations of a disease. Using Medicare claims linked with Health and Retirement Study data, we tested whether including these markers improved ability to predict ADL decline, IADL decline, hospitalization, and death compared to equivalent models which only included the presence or absence of diseases. RESULTS: Of 5012 subjects, median age was 76 years and 58% were female. For a majority of diseases tested individually, adding each of the 7 severity markers yielded minimal increase in c-statistic (≤0.002) for outcomes of ADL decline and mortality compared to models considering only the presence versus absence of disease. Gains in predictive power were more substantial for a small number of individual diseases. Inclusion of the most promising marker in multi-disease multimorbidity indices yielded minimal gains in c-statistics (<0.001-0.007) for predicting ADL decline, IADL decline, hospitalization, and death compared to indices without these markers. CONCLUSIONS: Claims-based markers of disease severity did not contribute meaningfully to the ability of multimorbidity indices to predict ADL decline, mortality, and other important outcomes.

Impact of standardized, language-concordant hospital discharge instructions on postdischarge medication questions.

Written instructions improve patient comprehension of discharge instructions but are often provided only in English even for patients with a non-English language preference (NELP). We implemented standardized written discharge instructions in English, Spanish, and Chinese for hospital medicine patients at an urban academic medical center. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we assessed the impact on medication-related postdischarge questions for patients with English, Spanish, or Chinese language preferences. Of 4013 patients, ∼15% had NELP. Preintervention, Chinese-preferring patients had a 5.6 percentage point higher probability of questions (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08, 2.21) compared to English-preferring patients; Spanish-preferring and English-preferring patients had similar rates of questions. Postintervention, English-preferring and Spanish-preferring patients had no significant change; Chinese-preferring patients had a significant 10.9 percentage point decrease in the probability of questions (aOR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.69) thereby closing the disparity. Language-concordant written discharge instructions may reduce disparities in medication-related postdischarge questions for patients with NELP.

Development and validation of novel multimorbidity indices for older adults.

BACKGROUND: Measuring multimorbidity in claims data is used for risk adjustment and identifying populations at high risk for adverse events. Multimorbidity indices such as Charlson and Elixhauser scores have important limitations. We sought to create a better method of measuring multimorbidity using claims data by incorporating geriatric conditions, markers of disease severity, and disease-disease interactions, and by tailoring measures to different outcomes. METHODS: Health conditions were assessed using Medicare inpatient and outpatient claims from subjects age 67 and older in the Health and Retirement Study. Separate indices were developed for ADL decline, IADL decline, hospitalization, and death, each over 2 years of follow-up. We validated these indices using data from Medicare claims linked to the National Health and Aging Trends Study. RESULTS: The development cohort included 5012 subjects with median age 76 years; 58% were female. Claims-based markers of disease severity and disease-disease interactions yielded minimal gains in predictive power and were not included in the final indices. In the validation cohort, after adjusting for age and sex, c-statistics for the new multimorbidity indices were 0.72 for ADL decline, 0.69 for IADL decline, 0.72 for hospitalization, and 0.77 for death. These c-statistics were 0.02-0.03 higher than c-statistics from Charlson and Elixhauser indices for predicting ADL decline, IADL decline, and hospitalization, and <0.01 higher for death (p < 0.05 for each outcome except death), and were similar to those from the CMS-HCC model. On decision curve analysis, the new indices provided minimal benefit compared with legacy approaches. C-statistics for both new and legacy indices varied substantially across derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: A new series of claims-based multimorbidity measures were modestly better at predicting hospitalization and functional decline than several legacy indices, and no better at predicting death. There may be limited opportunity in claims data to measure multimorbidity better than older methods.

Overestimation of anticoagulant benefit in patients with atrial fibrillation and low life expectancy: evidence from 12 randomized trials.

Background: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a high rate of all-cause mortality that is only partially attributable to vascular outcomes. While the competing risk of death may affect expected anticoagulant benefit, guidelines do not account for it. We sought to determine if using a competing risks framework materially affects the guideline-endorsed estimate of absolute risk reduction attributable to anticoagulants. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of 12 RCTs that randomized patients with AF to oral anticoagulants or either placebo or antiplatelets. For each participant, we estimated the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of anticoagulants to prevent stroke or systemic embolism using two methods. First, we estimated the ARR using a guideline-endorsed model (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) and then again using a Competing Risk Model that uses the same inputs as CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc but accounts for the competing risk of death and allows for non-linear growth in benefit over time. We compared the absolute and relative differences in estimated benefit and whether the differences in estimated benefit varied by life expectancy. Results: 7933 participants had a median life expectancy of 8 years (IQR 6, 12), determined by comorbidity-adjusted life tables. 43% were randomized to oral anticoagulation (median age 73 years, 36% women). The guideline-endorsed CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc model estimated a larger ARR than the Competing Risk Model (median ARR at 3 years, 6.9% vs. 5.2%). ARR differences varied by life expectancies: for those with life expectancies in the highest decile, 3-year ARR difference (CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc model - Competing Risk Model 3-year risk) was -1.2% (42% relative underestimation); for those with life expectancies in the lowest decile, 3-year ARR difference was 5.9% (91% relative overestimation). Conclusion: Anticoagulants were exceptionally effective at reduced stroke risk. However, anticoagulant benefits were misestimated with CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc, which does not account for the competing risk of death nor decelerating treatment benefit over time. Overestimation was most pronounced in patients with the lowest life expectancy and when benefit was estimated over a multi-year horizon.