Breathlessness limiting exertion in very old adults: findings from the Newcastle 85+ study.

INTRODUCTION: Long-term breathlessness is more common with age. However, in the oldest old (>85 years), little is known about the prevalence, or impact of breathlessness. We estimated breathlessness limiting exertion prevalence and explored (i) associated characteristics; and (ii) whether breathlessness limiting exertion explains clinical and social/functional outcomes. METHODS: Health and socio-demographic characteristics were extracted from the Newcastle 85+ Study cohort. Phase 1 (baseline) and follow-up data (18 months, Phase 2; 36 months, Phase 3; 60 months, Phase 4 after baseline) were examined using descriptive statistics and cross-sectional regression models. RESULTS: Eight hundred seventeen participants provided baseline breathlessness data (38.2% men; mean 84.5 years; SD 0.4). The proportions with any limitation of exertion, or severe limitation by breathlessness were 23% (95% confidence intervals (CIs) 20-25%) and 9% (95%CIs 7-11%) at baseline; 20% (16-25%) and 5% (3-8%) at Phase 4. Having more co-morbidities (odds ratio (OR) 1.34, 1.18-1.54; P < 0.001), or self-reported respiratory (OR 1.88, 1.25-2.82; P = 0.003) or cardiovascular disease (OR 2.38, 1.58-3.58; P < 0.001) were associated with breathlessness limiting exertion. Breathlessness severely limiting exertion was associated with poorer self-rated health (OR 0.50, 029-0.86; P = 0.012), depression (beta-coefficient 0.11, P = 0.001), increased primary care contacts (beta-co-efficient 0.13, P = 0.001) and number of nights in hospital (OR 1.81; 1.02-3.20; P = 0.042). CONCLUSIONS: Breathlessness limiting exertion appears to become less prevalent over time due to death or withdrawal of participants with cardio-respiratory illness. Breathlessness severely limiting exertion had a wide range of service utilisation and wellbeing impacts.

Online Interest for Electronic Cigarettes Using Google Trends in the UK: A Correlation Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Google Trends provides an easily accessible and cost-effective method of providing real-time insight into user interest. OBJECTIVE: to address the gap in UK prevalence data for e-cigarettes by analyzing Google Trends to identify correlations with official data from Action on Smoking and Health. The study further evaluates Google Trend's sensitivity to real-time events and the ability for predictive models to forecast future data based on Google Trends. METHODS: UK Google Trends data from 2012 to 2021 was analyzed to assess (a) the most popular electronic nicotine device terminology; (b) statistically significant points in time; (c) correlations between Relative Search Volumes and official reports on electronic cigarette use and (d) whether Google Trends could predict future patterns in data. These were achieved using Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing regression, Pruned Exact Linear Time Method, cross correlation, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average algorithms respectively. RESULTS: "Vape" was revealed to be the most popular electronic nicotine device terminology with a correlation coefficient greater than +0.9 when compared to official electronic cigarette consumption data within a one-year timescale (lag 0). Results from ARIMA modeling were varied with the algorithms forecasted trends line occasionally lying outside of a 95% prediction interval. CONCLUSION: Google Trends may correspond to population-based prevalence of electronic cigarette use. The changing trends coincide with changing policy decisions. Google Trends based prediction for online interest in electronic cigarettes requires further validation so should currently be used in conjunction with other traditional methods of data collections.

Hormone replacement therapy and asthma onset in menopausal women: National cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the role of hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) in the development of asthma. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether use of HRT and duration of use was associated with risk of development of asthma in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women. METHODS: We constructed a 17-year (from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016) open cohort of 353,173 women (aged 46-70 years) from the Optimum Patient Care Database, a longitudinal primary care database from across the United Kingdom. HRT use, subtypes, and duration of use; confounding variables; and asthma onset were defined by using the Read Clinical Classification System. We fitted multilevel Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: During the 17-year follow-up (1,340,423 person years), 7,614 new asthma cases occurred, giving an incidence rate of 5.7 (95% CI = 5.5-5.8) per 1,000 person years. Compared with nonuse of HRT, previous use of any (HR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.76-0.88), estrogen-only (HR = 0.89; 95% CI = 0.84-0.95), or combined estrogen and progestogen (HR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.76-0.88) HRT was associated with a reduced risk of asthma onset. This was also the case with current use of any (HR = 0.79; 95% CI = 0.74-0.85), estrogen-only (HR = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.73-0.87), and combined estrogen and progestogen (HR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.70-0.87) HRT. Longer duration of HRT use (1-2 years [HR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.87-0.99]; 3-4 years [HR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.70-0.84]; and ≥5 years [HR = 0.71; 95% CI = 0.64-0.78]) was associated with a dose-response reduced risk of asthma onset. CONCLUSION: We found that HRT was associated with a reduced risk of development of late onset asthma in menopausal women. Further cohort studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Hormonal contraception and the risk of severe asthma exacerbation: 17-year population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal studies investigating impact of exogenous sex steroids on clinical outcomes of asthma in women are lacking. We investigated the association between use of hormonal contraceptives and risk of severe asthma exacerbation in reproductive-age women with asthma. METHODS: We used the Optimum Patient Care Research Database, a population-based, longitudinal, anonymised primary care database in the UK, to construct a 17-year (1 January 2000-31 December 2016) retrospective cohort of reproductive-age (16-45 years, n=83 084) women with asthma. Using Read codes, we defined use, subtypes and duration of use of hormonal contraceptives. Severe asthma exacerbation was defined according to recommendations of the European Respiratory Society/American Thoracic Society as asthma-related hospitalisation, accident and emergency department visits due to asthma and/or oral corticosteroid prescriptions. Analyses were done using multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regression with QR decomposition. RESULTS: The 17-year follow-up resulted in 456 803 person-years of follow-up time. At baseline, 34% of women were using any hormonal contraceptives, 25% combined (oestrogen/progestogen) and 9% progestogen-only contraceptives. Previous (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.94, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.97) and current (IRR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.98) use of any, previous (IRR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.97) and current use of combined (IRR 0.93, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.96) and longer duration of use (3-4 years: IRR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.97; 5+ years: IRR 0.91, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.93) of hormonal contraceptives, but not progestogen-only contraceptives, were associated with reduced risk of severe asthma exacerbation compared with non-use. CONCLUSIONS: Use of hormonal contraceptives may reduce the risk of severe asthma exacerbation in reproductive-age women. Mechanistic studies investigating the biological basis for the influence of hormonal contraceptives on clinical outcomes of asthma in women are required. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION NUMBER: European Union electronic Register of Post-Authorisation Studies (EUPAS22967).

Hormonal contraceptives and onset of asthma in reproductive-age women: Population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Despite well-described sex differences in asthma incidence, there remains uncertainty about the role of female sex hormones in the development of asthma. OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate whether hormonal contraceptive use, its subtypes, and duration of use were associated with new-onset asthma in reproductive-age women. METHODS: Using the Optimum Patient Care Research Database, a UK national primary care database, we constructed an open cohort of 16- to 45-year-old women (N = 564,896) followed for up to 17 years (ie, January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016). We fitted multilevel Cox regression models to analyze the data. RESULTS: At baseline, 26% of women were using any hormonal contraceptives. During follow-up (3,597,146 person-years), 25,288 women developed asthma, an incidence rate of 7.0 (95% CI, 6.9-7.1) per 1000 person-years. Compared with nonuse, previous use of any hormonal contraceptives (hazard ratio [HR], 0.70; 95% CI, 0.68-0.72), combined (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.68-0.72), and progestogen-only therapy (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.67-0.74) was associated with reduced risk of new-onset asthma. For current use, the estimates were as follows: any (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.61-0.65), combined (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.62-0.67), and progestogen-only therapy (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.56-0.62). Longer duration of use (1-2 years: HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.86; 3-4 years: HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.61-0.67; 5+ years: HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.44-0.49) was associated with a lower risk of asthma onset than nonuse. CONCLUSIONS: Hormonal contraceptive use was associated with reduced risk of new-onset asthma in women of reproductive age. Mechanistic investigations to uncover the biological processes for these observations are required. Clinical trials investigating the safety and effectiveness of hormonal contraceptives for primary prevention of asthma will be helpful to confirm these results.

Smoke-free legislation and paediatric hospitalisations for acute respiratory tract infections: national quasi-experimental study with unexpected findings and important methodological implications.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether Scottish implementation of smoke-free legislation was associated with a reduction in unplanned hospitalisations or deaths ('events') due to respiratory tract infections (RTIs) among children. DESIGN: Interrupted time series (ITS). SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Children aged 0-12 years living in Scotland during 1996-2012. INTERVENTION: National comprehensive smoke-free legislation (March 2006). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Acute RTI events in the Scottish Morbidity Record-01 and/or National Records of Scotland Death Records. RESULTS: 135 134 RTI events were observed over 155 million patient-months. In our prespecified negative binomial regression model accounting for underlying temporal trends, seasonality, sex, age group, region, urbanisation level, socioeconomic status and seven-valent pneumococcal vaccination status, smoke-free legislation was associated with an immediate rise in RTI events (incidence rate ratio (IRR)=1.24, 95% CI 1.20 to 1.28) and an additional gradual increase (IRR=1.05/year, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.06). Given this unanticipated finding, we conducted a number of post hoc exploratory analyses. Among these, automatic break point detection indicated that the rise in RTI events actually preceded the smoke-free law by 16 months. When accounting for this break point, smoke-free legislation was associated with a gradual decrease in acute RTI events: IRR=0.91/year, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.96. CONCLUSIONS: Our prespecified ITS approach suggested that implementation of smoke-free legislation in Scotland was associated with an increase in paediatric RTI events. We were concerned that this result, which contradicted published evidence, was spurious. The association was indeed reversed when accounting for an unanticipated antecedent break point in the temporal trend, suggesting that the legislation may in fact be protective. ITS analyses should be subjected to comprehensive robustness checks to assess consistency.

Predicting probable Alzheimer's disease using linguistic deficits and biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: The manual diagnosis of neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related Dementias has been a challenge. Currently, these disorders are diagnosed using specific clinical diagnostic criteria and neuropsychological examinations. The use of several Machine Learning algorithms to build automated diagnostic models using low-level linguistic features resulting from verbal utterances could aid diagnosis of patients with probable AD from a large population. For this purpose, we developed different Machine Learning models on the DementiaBank language transcript clinical dataset, consisting of 99 patients with probable AD and 99 healthy controls. RESULTS: Our models learned several syntactic, lexical, and n-gram linguistic biomarkers to distinguish the probable AD group from the healthy group. In contrast to the healthy group, we found that the probable AD patients had significantly less usage of syntactic components and significantly higher usage of lexical components in their language. Also, we observed a significant difference in the use of n-grams as the healthy group were able to identify and make sense of more objects in their n-grams than the probable AD group. As such, our best diagnostic model significantly distinguished the probable AD group from the healthy elderly group with a better Area Under the Receiving Operating Characteristics Curve (AUC) using the Support Vector Machines (SVM). CONCLUSIONS: Experimental and statistical evaluations suggest that using ML algorithms for learning linguistic biomarkers from the verbal utterances of elderly individuals could help the clinical diagnosis of probable AD. We emphasise that the best ML model for predicting the disease group combines significant syntactic, lexical and top n-gram features. However, there is a need to train the diagnostic models on larger datasets, which could lead to a better AUC and clinical diagnosis of probable AD.

Patient-reported outcome measures for allergy and asthma in children.

There is increasing recognition of the importance of patient's perceptions of disease and their assessments of heathcare processes. Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are therefore now regarded as at least as important as the traditional objective measures of disease. For minors, parental and, except in the very young and severally cognitively impaired, the child's perspectives are important because they provide unique and complementary information. In this review, we summarize the evidence on PROMs for allergy and asthma for use in children. Overall, there are fewer PROMs available for use in children than in adults. We were able to identify some validated pediatric PROMs that have been developed for use in atopic eczema/dermatitis, food allergy, allergic rhinitis/rhinoconjunctivitis, and asthma. There is very limited evidence on deploying these instruments out with research settings. There is therefore a pressing need to report on the experiences of using PROMs for allergy and asthma in routine clinical care. In particular, there is a need to understand how acceptable these are to children/carers, whether they can be incorporated into routine clinical assessments and if they are responsive to changes in treatment made in routine clinical practice.

Coming of age, becoming obese: a cross-sectional analysis of obesity among adolescents and young adults in Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: Malaysians have become increasingly obese over recent years. The transition from adolescence to early adulthood is recognized as critical for the development of eating and activity habits. However, little obesity-related research focuses on this life stage. Drawing on data from a health and demographic surveillance site in Malaysia, this article describes obesity and overweight amongst adolescents and young adults in a multi-ethnic population. METHODS: Data were collected at the South East Asia Community Observatory (SEACO) in Segamat District, Johor. In this dynamic cohort of approximately 40,000 people, 5,475 were aged 16-35 in 2013-2014. The population consists of Malay, Chinese, Indian and Indigenous (Orang Asli) families in proportions that reflect the national ethnic diversity. Data were collected through health profiles (Body Mass Index [BMI] measurements in homes) and self-report questionnaires. RESULTS: Age and ethnicity were associated with overweight (BMI 25.0-29.9Kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥ 30Kg/m2). The prevalence of overweight was 12.8 % at ages 16-20 and 28.4 % at ages 31-35; obesity was 7.9 % and 20.9 % at the same age groups. The main ethnic groups also showed varied patterns of obesity and overweight at the different age groups with Chinese at lowest and Orang Asli at highest risk. Level of education, employment status, physical activity and frequency of eating out were poorly predictive of overweight and obesity. CONCLUSION: The pattern of overweight and obesity in the 16-35 age group further highlights this as a significant period for changes in health-related behaviours. Further longitudinal research is however needed to confirm the observed pattern and investigate causal factors.

Does one cigarette make an adolescent smoker, and is it influenced by age and age of smoking initiation? Evidence of association from the U.S. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (2011).

OBJECTIVES: Evidence that age of smoking initiation represents a risk factor for regular smoking in adolescence is complicated by inconsistencies in the operational definition of smoking initiation and simultaneous inclusion of age as an explanatory variable. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between age, age of smoking initiation and subsequent regular smoking. METHODS: A secondary analysis was conducted of the U.S. Youth Risk Behavior Survey 2011. A sex stratified multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to model the likelihood of regular smoking with age and age of smoking initiation as explanatory variables and race/ethnicity as a covariate. RESULTS: After controlling for race/ethnicity, age and age of smoking initiation were independently associated with regular smoking in males and females. Independent of age, a one year's decrease in the age of smoking initiation was associated with a 1.27 times increase in odds of regular smoking in females (95% CI: 1.192-1.348); and similar associations for males (OR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.216-1.341). CONCLUSION: While the majority of high school students do not become regular smokers after initiating smoking, earlier initiation of smoking is associated with subsequent regular smoking irrespective of sex or race/ethnicity. These findings have potentially important implications for intervention targeting.

The rural bite in population pyramids: what are the implications for responsiveness of health systems in middle income countries?

BACKGROUND: Health services can only be responsive if they are designed to service the needs of the population at hand. In many low and middle income countries, the rate of urbanisation can leave the profile of the rural population quite different from the urban population. As a consequence, the kinds of services required for an urban population may be quite different from that required for a rural population. This is examined using data from the South East Asia Community Observatory in rural Malaysia and contrasting it with the national Malaysia population profile. METHODS: Census data were collected from 10,373 household and the sex and age of household members was recorded. Approximate Malaysian national age and sex profiles were downloaded from the US Census Bureau. The population pyramids, and the dependency and support ratios for the whole population and the SEACO sub-district population are compared. RESULTS: Based on the population profiles and the dependency ratios, the rural sub-district shows need for health services in the under 14 age group similar to that required nationally. In the older age group, however, the rural sub-district shows twice the need for services as the national data indicate. CONCLUSION: The health services needs of an older population will tend towards chronic conditions, rather than the typically acute conditions of childhood. The relatively greater number of older people in the rural population suggest a very different health services mix need. Community based population monitoring provides critical information to inform health systems.

Outcomes in patients treated with loop diuretics without a diagnosis of heart failure: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Loop diuretics are commonly prescribed in the community, not always to patients with a recorded diagnosis of heart failure (HF). The rate of HF events in patients prescribed loop diuretics without a diagnosis of HF is unknown. METHODS: This was a propensity-matched cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics in the UK. Patients prescribed a loop diuretic without a diagnosis of HF (loop diuretic group) between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2015 were compared with patients with HF (HF group)-analysis A, and patients with risk factors for HF (either ischaemic heart disease, or diabetes and hypertension-at-risk group)-analysis B. The primary endpoint was an HF event (a composite of presentation with HF symptoms, HF hospitalisation, HF diagnosis (analysis B only) and all-cause mortality). RESULTS: From a total population of 180 384 patients (78 968 in the loop diuretic group, 28 177 in the HF group and 73 239 in the at-risk group), there were 59 694 patients, 22 352 patients and 57 219 patients in the loop diuretic, HF and at-risk groups, respectively, after exclusion criteria were applied. After propensity matching for age, sex and comorbidities, patients in the loop diuretic group had a similar rate of HF events as those in the HF group (71.9% vs 72.1%; HR=0.92 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.94); p<0.001), and twice as those in the at-risk group (59.2% vs 35.7%; HR=2.04 (95% CI 2.00 to 2.08); p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients prescribed a loop diuretic without a recorded diagnosis of HF experience HF events at a rate comparable with that of patients with a recorded diagnosis of HF; many of these patients may have undiagnosed HF.

Ethics guidelines for environmental epidemiologists: 2023 revision.

Recognition of the importance to environmental epidemiology of ethical and philosophical deliberation led, in 1996, to the establishment of Ethics Guidelines for the profession. In 1999, these guidelines were adopted by the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology. The guidelines were revised in 2012 and again in 2023 to ensure continued relevance to the major issues facing the field. Comprising normative standards of professional conduct, the guidelines are structured into four subsections: (1) obligations to individuals and communities who participate in research; (2) obligations to society; (3) obligations regarding funders/sponsors and employers; and (4) obligations to colleagues. Through the 2023 revision of the Ethics Guidelines, the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology seeks to ensure the highest possible standards of transparency and accountability for the ethical conduct of environmental epidemiologists engaged in research and public health practice.

Validity of self-measured waist and hip circumferences: results from a community study in Malaysia.

BACKGROUND: Measures of central adiposity are better predictors of adverse health events than BMI. Nonetheless, BMI is more widely used in health research. One reason for this may be the limited research supporting the self-measurement of waist and hip circumference. The lack of validity studies is particularly acute in Asia. The main objective was to establish the validity of self-measurement of waist and hip circumference in a community setting and the correlation of those measures with BMI, blood pressure, and blood glucose levels. METHODS: A community based, cross-sectional survey. A "healthy living expo" at a shopping mall in a rural town on peninsular Malaysia One hundred and thirty six (136) individuals volunteered to participate in the study, 125 of whom met the inclusion criteria. The ethnic distribution of the participants was 80% Chinese, 17% Malay and 3% Indian. Most participants were female (60%), with participants' ages ranging from 18 to 78 years (mean, 47.2). Self and assisted measurements of waist and hip were taken. Blood pressure, non-fasting blood glucose, height, and weight were also measured. Bland Altman plots and Lin's concordance coefficient were used to measure agreement between self and assisted measures. Pearson's correlation was used to examine the association of self and assisted measures with blood pressure, blood glucose, and BMI. RESULTS: There was a downwards bias in self measured waist (-0.81 cm) and hip (-1 cm) circumferences compared with assisted measures. The concordance for the self and assisted measures of waist, hip and the ratio of the two were, respectively, .96, .93 , and .84. The correlation between measures of central adiposity and BMI, blood pressure and blood glucose were similar for self and assisted measures. CONCLUSION: The results provide additional support for the use of self-measurement of waist and hip circumference studies of central adiposity, but is limited by the specificity of the setting.

Forecasting peak asthma admissions in London: an application of quantile regression models.

Asthma is a chronic condition of great public health concern globally. The associated morbidity, mortality and healthcare utilisation place an enormous burden on healthcare infrastructure and services. This study demonstrates a multistage quantile regression approach to predicting excess demand for health care services in the form of asthma daily admissions in London, using retrospective data from the Hospital Episode Statistics, weather and air quality. Trivariate quantile regression models (QRM) of asthma daily admissions were fitted to a 14-day range of lags of environmental factors, accounting for seasonality in a hold-in sample of the data. Representative lags were pooled to form multivariate predictive models, selected through a systematic backward stepwise reduction approach. Models were cross-validated using a hold-out sample of the data, and their respective root mean square error measures, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values compared. Two of the predictive models were able to detect extreme number of daily asthma admissions at sensitivity levels of 76 % and 62 %, as well as specificities of 66 % and 76 %. Their positive predictive values were slightly higher for the hold-out sample (29 % and 28 %) than for the hold-in model development sample (16 % and 18 %). QRMs can be used in multistage to select suitable variables to forecast extreme asthma events. The associations between asthma and environmental factors, including temperature, ozone and carbon monoxide can be exploited in predicting future events using QRMs.

Forecasting asthma-related hospital admissions in London using negative binomial models.

Health forecasting can improve health service provision and individual patient outcomes. Environmental factors are known to impact chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma, but little is known about the extent to which these factors can be used for forecasting. Using weather, air quality and hospital asthma admissions, in London (2005-2006), two related negative binomial models were developed and compared with a naive seasonal model. In the first approach, predictive forecasting models were fitted with 7-day averages of each potential predictor, and then a subsequent multivariable model is constructed. In the second strategy, an exhaustive search of the best fitting models between possible combinations of lags (0-14 days) of all the environmental effects on asthma admission was conducted. Three models were considered: a base model (seasonal effects), contrasted with a 7-day average model and a selected lags model (weather and air quality effects). Season is the best predictor of asthma admissions. The 7-day average and seasonal models were trivial to implement. The selected lags model was computationally intensive, but of no real value over much more easily implemented models. Seasonal factors can predict daily hospital asthma admissions in London, and there is a little evidence that additional weather and air quality information would add to forecast accuracy.

An overview of health forecasting.

Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

The effect of geographical variation in income measures on measles-mumps-rubella uptake and coverage in England; a protocol for an ecological study.

Measles is a vaccine-preventable disease whose vaccine was introduced in England in 1988, however, Measles outbreaks have still been occurring in the country. Consequently, the World Health Organization (WHO) removed the elimination status of Measles in 2019 from England and the whole United Kingdom. Noticeably, MMR vaccination coverage in England is below the recommended threshold with geographical variations across local authorities (LA). The research into the effect of income disparities on MMR vaccine coverage was insufficiently examined. Therefore, an ecological study will be conducted aiming at determining whether there is a relationship between income deprivation measures and MMR vaccine coverage in upper-tier local authorities in England. This study will be using 2019 publicly available vaccination data for children who were eligible for the MMR vaccine by their second and fifth birthday in 2018/2019. The effect of spatial clustering of income level on vaccination coverage will also be assessed. Vaccination coverage data will be obtained from "Cover of Vaccination Evaluated Rapidly (COVER)". Income deprivation score, Deprivation gap, and Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index will be obtained from Office for National Statistics and Moran's Index will be generated using RStudio. Rural/urban LA classification and mothers' education will be included as possible confounding factors. Additionally, the live births rate per mothers' age group will be included as a proxy for the mothers' age variation in different LA. Multiple linear regression will be used after testing the relevant assumptions, using SPSS software. Moran's I together with income deprivation score will be analysed through regression and mediation analysis. This study will help in determining whether income level is a determinant of MMR vaccination uptake and coverage in LA in England which would help policymakers in designing targeted campaigns, thus preventing measles outbreaks in the future.

Effectiveness of educational interventions on hypertensive patients' self-management behaviours: an umbrella review protocol.

BACKGROUND: Although different educational interventions have been widely used to manage and treat hypertension, alone or in combination with other interventions, there is a significant variation in their claimed effectiveness. REVIEW QUESTION/OBJECTIVE: The objective of this umbrella review is to determine the effectiveness of educational interventions, alone or in combination with other interventions, for improving blood pressure control and self-management practices among hypertensive patients. The review question is: Do educational interventions, alone or in combination with other interventions, improve self-management practices among patients with hypertension? METHODS: We will conduct a review of systematic reviews involving studies that implemented educational interventions, alone or in combination with other interventions, designed to change self-care practices among hypertensive patients who are 18 years and above, regardless of their sex and ethnicity. Following the guidelines set forth in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis statement, a comprehensive literature search will be conducted from September to December 2023 on six electronic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Web of Science Core Collection and Google Scholar. Search terms will be developed using database-specific indexed terms and text words derived from the review aim. We will present the effects of the educational interventions, alone or in combination with other interventions, on hypertension self-management practices. We will report the outcome data with 95% CIs for each study. Relative risk, mean differences or ORs will be used, depending on the measuring indices in each study. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval is not required as this study will use aggregated data from previously published systematic reviews. However, we have registered the protocol in PROSPERO. We confirm that all methods will be performed following the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki. The findings from this study will be disseminated through presentations at academic conferences and publication in peer-reviewed international journals. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022375581.