Sterile protection against human malaria by chemoattenuated PfSPZ vaccine.

A highly protective malaria vaccine would greatly facilitate the prevention and elimination of malaria and containment of drug-resistant parasites. A high level (more than 90%) of protection against malaria in humans has previously been achieved only by immunization with radiation-attenuated Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) sporozoites (PfSPZ) inoculated by mosquitoes; by intravenous injection of aseptic, purified, radiation-attenuated, cryopreserved PfSPZ ('PfSPZ Vaccine'); or by infectious PfSPZ inoculated by mosquitoes to volunteers taking chloroquine or mefloquine (chemoprophylaxis with sporozoites). We assessed immunization by direct venous inoculation of aseptic, purified, cryopreserved, non-irradiated PfSPZ ('PfSPZ Challenge') to malaria-naive, healthy adult volunteers taking chloroquine for antimalarial chemoprophylaxis (vaccine approach denoted as PfSPZ-CVac). Three doses of 5.12 × 104 PfSPZ of PfSPZ Challenge at 28-day intervals were well tolerated and safe, and prevented infection in 9 out of 9 (100%) volunteers who underwent controlled human malaria infection ten weeks after the last dose (group III). Protective efficacy was dependent on dose and regimen. Immunization with 3.2 × 103 (group I) or 1.28 × 104 (group II) PfSPZ protected 3 out of 9 (33%) or 6 out of 9 (67%) volunteers, respectively. Three doses of 5.12 × 104 PfSPZ at five-day intervals protected 5 out of 8 (63%) volunteers. The frequency of Pf-specific polyfunctional CD4 memory T cells was associated with protection. On a 7,455 peptide Pf proteome array, immune sera from at least 5 out of 9 group III vaccinees recognized each of 22 proteins. PfSPZ-CVac is a highly efficacious vaccine candidate; when we are able to optimize the immunization regimen (dose, interval between doses, and drug partner), this vaccine could be used for combination mass drug administration and a mass vaccination program approach to eliminate malaria from geographically defined areas.

Attenuated PfSPZ Vaccine induces strain-transcending T cells and durable protection against heterologous controlled human malaria infection.

A live-attenuated malaria vaccine, Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite vaccine (PfSPZ Vaccine), confers sterile protection against controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) with Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) parasites homologous to the vaccine strain up to 14 mo after final vaccination. No injectable malaria vaccine has demonstrated long-term protection against CHMI using Pf parasites heterologous to the vaccine strain. Here, we conducted an open-label trial with PfSPZ Vaccine at a dose of 9.0 × 105 PfSPZ administered i.v. three times at 8-wk intervals to 15 malaria-naive adults. After CHMI with homologous Pf parasites 19 wk after final immunization, nine (64%) of 14 (95% CI, 35-87%) vaccinated volunteers remained without parasitemia compared with none of six nonvaccinated controls (P = 0.012). Of the nine nonparasitemic subjects, six underwent repeat CHMI with heterologous Pf7G8 parasites 33 wk after final immunization. Five (83%) of six (95% CI, 36-99%) remained without parasitemia compared with none of six nonvaccinated controls. PfSPZ-specific T-cell and antibody responses were detected in all vaccine recipients. Cytokine production by T cells from vaccinated subjects after in vitro stimulation with homologous (NF54) or heterologous (7G8) PfSPZ were highly correlated. Interestingly, PfSPZ-specific T-cell responses in the blood peaked after the first immunization and were not enhanced by subsequent immunizations. Collectively, these data suggest durable protection against homologous and heterologous Pf parasites can be achieved with PfSPZ Vaccine. Ongoing studies will determine whether protective efficacy can be enhanced by additional alterations in the vaccine dose and number of immunizations.

Correlated biodiversity change between plant and insect assemblages resurveyed after 80 years across a dynamic habitat mosaic.

Historical data on co-occurring taxa are extremely rare. As such, the extent to which distinct co-occurring taxa experience similar long-term patterns in species richness and compositional change (e.g., when exposed to a changing environment) is not clear. Using data from a diverse ecological community surveyed in the 1930s and resurveyed in the 2010s, we investigated whether local plant and insect assemblages displayed cross-taxon congruence-that is, spatiotemporal correlation in species richness and compositional change-across six co-occurring taxa: vascular plants, non-vascular plants, grasshoppers and crickets (Orthoptera), ants (Hymenoptera: Formicinae), hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae), and dragonflies and damselflies (Odonata). All taxa exhibited high levels of turnover across the ca. 80-year time period. Despite minimal observed changes at the level of the whole study system, species richness displayed widespread cross-taxon congruence (i.e., correlated temporal change) across local assemblages within the study system. Hierarchical logistic regression models suggest a role for shared responses to environmental change underlying cross-taxon correlations and highlight stronger correlations between vascular plants and their direct consumers, suggesting a possible role for biotic interactions between these groups. These results provide an illustration of cross-taxon congruence in biodiversity change using data unique in its combination of temporal and taxonomic scope, and highlight the potential for cascading and comparable effects of environmental change (abiotic and biotic) on co-occurring plant and insect communities. However, analyses of historical resurveys based on currently available data come with inherent uncertainties. As such, this study highlights a need for well-designed experiments, and monitoring programs incorporating co-occurring taxa, to determine the underlying mechanisms and prevalence of congruent biodiversity change as anthropogenic environmental change accelerates apace.

A model based on Bayesian confirmation and machine learning algorithms to aid archaeological interpretation by integrating incompatible data.

The interpretation of archaeological features often requires a combined methodological approach in order to make the most of the material record, particularly from sites where this may be limited. In practice, this requires the consultation of different sources of information in order to cross validate findings and combat issues of ambiguity and equifinality. However, the application of a multiproxy approach often generates incompatible data, and might therefore still provide ambiguous results. This paper explores the potential of a simple digital framework to increase the explanatory power of multiproxy data by enabling the incorporation of incompatible, ambiguous datasets in a single model. In order to achieve this, Bayesian confirmation was used in combination with decision trees. The results of phytolith and geochemical analyses carried out on soil samples from ephemeral sites in Jordan are used here as a case study. The combination of the two datasets as part of a single model enabled us to refine the initial interpretation of the use of space at the archaeological sites by providing an alternative identification for certain activity areas. The potential applications of this model are much broader, as it can also help researchers in other domains reach an integrated interpretation of analysis results by combining different datasets.

Behavioral repertoire of high-shore littorinid snails reveals novel adaptations to an extreme environment.

Species that inhabit high-shore environments on rocky shores survive prolonged periods of emersion and thermal stress. Using two Hong Kong high-shore littorinids (Echinolittorina malaccana and E. radiata) as models, we examined their behavioral repertoire to survive these variable and extreme conditions. Environmental temperatures ranged from 4°C in the cool season to 55.5°C in the hot season, with strong seasonal and daily fluctuations. In the hot season, both species allocated >35% of their activity budgets to stress-mitigating thermoregulatory behaviors (e.g. standing, towering) and relatively small proportions to foraging (<20%) and reproduction (<10%). In the assumedly benign cool season, greater proportions (>70%) of activity budgets were allocated to stress mitigation behaviors (crevice occupation, aggregation formation). Both species exhibited multifunctional behaviors that optimized time use during their tidally-constrained activity window in the hot season. Females mated while foraging when awash by the rising tide, and some males crawled on top of females prior to ceasing movement to form 'towers', which have both thermoregulatory benefits and reduce searching time for mates during subsequent activity. The function of such behaviors varies in a state-dependent manner, for example, the function of trail following changes over an activity cycle from mate searching on rising tides, to stress mitigation on falling tides (aiding aggregation formation), and to both functions through tower formation just before movement stops. Many of these behavioral responses are, therefore, multifunctional and can vary according to local conditions, allowing snails in this family to successfully colonize the extreme high-shore environment.

Development of a metabolically active, non-replicating sporozoite vaccine to prevent Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

Immunization of volunteers by the bite of mosquitoes carrying radiation-attenuated Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites protects greater than 90% of such volunteers against malaria, if adequate numbers of immunizing biting sessions and sporozoite-infected mosquitoes are used. Nonetheless, until recently it was considered impossible to develop, license and commercialize a live, whole parasite P. falciparum sporozoite (PfSPZ) vaccine. In 2003 Sanaria scientists reappraised the potential impact of a metabolically active, non-replicating PfSPZ vaccine, and outlined the challenges to producing such a vaccine. Six years later, significant progress has been made in overcoming these challenges. This progress has enabled the manufacture and release of multiple clinical lots of a 1(st) generation metabolically active, non-replicating PfSPZ vaccine, the Sanaria PfSPZ Vaccine, submission of a successful Investigational New Drug application to the US Food and Drug Administration, and initiation of safety, immunogenicity and protective efficacy studies in volunteers in MD, US. Efforts are now focused on how best to achieve submission of a successful Biologics License Application and introduce the vaccine to the primary target population of African children in the shortest possible period of time. This will require implementation of a systematic, efficient clinical development plan. Short term challenges include optimizing the (1) efficiency and scale up of the manufacturing process and quality control assays, (2) dosage regimen and method of administration, (3) potency of the vaccine, and (4) logistics of delivering the vaccine to those who need it most, and finalizing the methods for vaccine stabilization and attenuation. A medium term goal is to design and build a facility for manufacturing highly potent and stable vaccine for pivotal Phase 3 studies and commercial launch.

Parameterization and prediction of community interaction models using stable-state assumptions and computational techniques: an example from the high rocky intertidal.

Many ecological communities exist in a stable state where, if undisturbed, no net change will occur in the populations or in the interactions between the component parts of the system. In this paper we present computational methods (evolutionary algorithms and random searches) to parameterize mathematical models that describe communities in stable states. The initial parameterization of the model requires only "best guess" estimates for parameters and can therefore be used in data-poor situations. The technique locates the stable state that occurs with minimum deviation from these parameters. Alternative stable states in which the community may exist after a disturbance event can also be assessed using this technique, even though the number of alternative states may be large. Using available but incomplete data from an intertidal grazer/biofilm community, we created a prediction of the dynamics of both a pre- and post-disturbance community. Using limited data, we then predicted the most likely post-disturbance community, which proved to be a good match to experimental data, indicating the usefulness of this technique as a predictive tool.

Improving estimates of environmental change using multilevel regression models of Ellenberg indicator values.

Ellenberg indicator values (EIVs) are a widely used metric in plant ecology comprising a semi-quantitative description of species' ecological requirements. Typically, point estimates of mean EIV scores are compared over space or time to infer differences in the environmental conditions structuring plant communities-particularly in resurvey studies where no historical environmental data are available. However, the use of point estimates as a basis for inference does not take into account variance among species EIVs within sampled plots and gives equal weighting to means calculated from plots with differing numbers of species. Traditional methods are also vulnerable to inaccurate estimates where only incomplete species lists are available.We present a set of multilevel (hierarchical) models-fitted with and without group-level predictors (e.g., habitat type)-to improve precision and accuracy of plot mean EIV scores and to provide more reliable inference on changing environmental conditions over spatial and temporal gradients in resurvey studies. We compare multilevel model performance to GLMMs fitted to point estimates of mean EIVs. We also test the reliability of this method to improve inferences with incomplete species lists in some or all sample plots. Hierarchical modeling led to more accurate and precise estimates of plot-level differences in mean EIV scores between time-periods, particularly for datasets with incomplete records of species occurrence. Furthermore, hierarchical models revealed directional environmental change within ecological habitat types, which less precise estimates from GLMMs of raw mean EIVs were inadequate to detect. The ability to compute separate residual variance and adjusted R 2 parameters for plot mean EIVs and temporal differences in plot mean EIVs in multilevel models also allowed us to uncover a prominent role of hydrological differences as a driver of community compositional change in our case study, which traditional use of EIVs would fail to reveal. Assessing environmental change underlying ecological communities is a vital issue in the face of accelerating anthropogenic change. We have demonstrated that multilevel modeling of EIVs allows for a nuanced estimation of such from plant assemblage data changes at local scales and beyond, leading to a better understanding of temporal dynamics of ecosystems. Further, the ability of these methods to perform well with missing data should increase the total set of historical data which can be used to this end.

A bio-inspired visual collision detection mechanism for cars: combining insect inspired neurons to create a robust system.

The lobula giant movement detector (LGMD) of locusts is a visual interneuron that responds with an increasing spike frequency to an object approaching on a direct collision course. Recent studies involving the use of LGMD models to detect car collisions showed that it could detect collisions, but the neuron produced collision alerts to non-colliding, translating, stimuli in many cases. This study presents a modified model to address these problems. It shows how the neurons pre-synaptic to the LGMD show a remarkable ability to filter images, and only colliding and translating stimuli produce excitation in the neuron. It then integrates the LGMD network with models based on the elementary movement detector (EMD) neurons from the fly visual system, which are used to analyse directional excitation patterns in the biologically filtered images. Combining the information from the LGMD neuron and four directionally sensitive neurons produces a robust collision detection system for a wide range of automotive test situations.

Protection against inhalation anthrax by immunization with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi Ty21a stably producing protective antigen of Bacillus anthracis.

The national blueprint for biodefense concluded that the United States is underprepared for biological threats. The licensed anthrax vaccine absorbed vaccine, BioThrax, requires administration of at least 3-5 intramuscular doses. The anthrax vaccine absorbed vaccine consists of complex cell-free culture filtrates of a toxigenic Bacillus anthracis strain and causes tenderness at the injection site and significant adverse events. We integrated a codon-optimized, protective antigen gene of B. anthracis (plus extracellular secretion machinery), into the chromosome of the licensed, oral, live-attenuated typhoid fever vaccineTy21a to form Ty21a-PA-01 and demonstrated excellent expression of the gene encoding protective antigen. We produced the vaccine in a 10-L fermenter; foam-dried and vialed it, and characterized the dried product. The vaccine retained ~50% viability for 20 months at ambient temperature. Sera from animals immunized by the intraperitoneal route had high levels of anti-protective antigen antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and anthrax lethal toxin-neutralizing activity. Immunized mice were fully protected against intranasal challenge with ~5 LD50 of B. anthracis Sterne spores, and 70% (7/10) of vaccinated rabbits were protected against aerosol challenge with 200 LD50 of B. anthracis Ames spores. There was a significant correlation between protection and antibody levels determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and toxin-neutralizing activity. These data provide the foundation for achievement of our ultimate goal, which is to develop an oral anthrax vaccine that is stable at ambient temperatures and induces the rapid onset of durable, high-level protection after a 1-week immunization regimen.

Protection against malaria at 1 year and immune correlates following PfSPZ vaccination.

An attenuated Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) sporozoite (SPZ) vaccine, PfSPZ Vaccine, is highly protective against controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) 3 weeks after immunization, but the durability of protection is unknown. We assessed how vaccine dosage, regimen, and route of administration affected durable protection in malaria-naive adults. After four intravenous immunizations with 2.7 × 10(5) PfSPZ, 6/11 (55%) vaccinated subjects remained without parasitemia following CHMI 21 weeks after immunization. Five non-parasitemic subjects from this dosage group underwent repeat CHMI at 59 weeks, and none developed parasitemia. Although Pf-specific serum antibody levels correlated with protection up to 21-25 weeks after immunization, antibody levels waned substantially by 59 weeks. Pf-specific T cell responses also declined in blood by 59 weeks. To determine whether T cell responses in blood reflected responses in liver, we vaccinated nonhuman primates with PfSPZ Vaccine. Pf-specific interferon-γ-producing CD8 T cells were present at ∼100-fold higher frequencies in liver than in blood. Our findings suggest that PfSPZ Vaccine conferred durable protection to malaria through long-lived tissue-resident T cells and that administration of higher doses may further enhance protection.

Effective use of optimized, high-dose (50 kGy) gamma irradiation for pathogen inactivation of human bone allografts.

The safety of tissue allografts has come under increased scrutiny due to recent reports of allograft-associated bacterial and viral infections in tissue recipients. We report that 50 kGy of gamma irradiation, nearly three times the dose currently used, is an effective pathogen inactivation method when used under optimized conditions that minimize damage to the tissue. Cancellous bone dowels treated with a radioprotectant solution and 50 kGy of optimized irradiation had an ultimate compressive strength and modulus of elasticity equal to conventionally irradiated (18 kGy) and non-irradiated control bone grafts. We subjected bone dowels treated with this pathogen inactivation method to an in vitro cytotoxicity test using three different mammalian cell lines and concluded that the treated grafts were not cytotoxic. The log reduction of nine pathogens spiked into radioprotectant-treated bone irradiated to 50 kGy was also tested. We achieved 4.9 logs of inactivation of a model virus for HIV and hepatitis C and 5 logs inactivation of a model virus for human parvovirus B-19. Complete inactivation (6.0-9.2 logs) of seven clinically relevant microorganisms was demonstrated. The results show that a combination of radioprotectants and optimized, high-dose gamma irradiation is a viable method for producing safer cancellous bone grafts that have the mechanical strength of existing grafts.

Prolonged cultures of unstimulated human neutrophils lead to the apparition and persistence of rest-in-plate structures (RIPs) recognized by professional phagocytes in vitro and in vivo.

Polymorphonuclear neutrophil cells (PMNs) are known to spontaneously undergo apoptosis and then eliminated by professional phagocytes to prevent inflammation, a process called efferocytosis. However, when efferocytosis is impaired, PMNs will fall into secondary necrosis. Whether this state can persist for a certain period of time is unclear, since most of the studies investigating secondary necrosis are performed within 24h following induction by a proapoptotic agent. In this study, freshly isolated human PMNs were incubated without addition of exogenous agents in order to force them to undergo apoptosis and then secondary necrosis, an ideal experimental condition to study the behavior of secondary necrotic PMNs in absence of efferocytosis. By monitoring PMN cell morphology over time, we observed that an increasing proportion of cells harbored a ghost-like phenotype. Because these cellular remnants persist in plates for several days, we introduce here the terminology RIPs for 'rest-in-plate' structure. Heating of freshly isolated PMNs for 5min did not lead to the apparition of RIPs over time. In vivo administration of 7-days old RIPs in the murine air pouch model induced a slight inflammation resorbed within 24h. PKH26-stained RIPs were found to be ingested by professional phagocytes in vitro and in vivo in the murine air pouch and peritonitis models. Therefore, aged-PMNs have the potential to become RIPs in absence of efficient efferocytosis. Fortunately RIPs are recognized by professional phagocytes and, therefore, the concept of resolution of inflammation based on elimination of apoptotic and secondary necrotic PMNs could also be applied to RIPs.

Using Long-Term Volunteer Records to Examine Dormouse (Muscardinusavellanarius) Nestbox Selection.

Within ecology, there are unanswered questions about species-habitat interactions, which could potentially be resolved by a pragmatic analysis of a long-term volunteer-collected dataset. Here, we analysed 18 years of volunteer-collected data from a UK dormouse nestbox monitoring programme to determine the influence of habitat variables on nestbox choice by common dormice (Muscardinusavellanarius). We measured a range of habitat variables in a coppiced woodland in Gloucestershire, UK, and analysed these in relation to dormouse nestbox occupancy records (by dormice, other small mammals, and birds) collected by volunteers. While some characteristics of the woodland had changed over 18 years, simple transformation of the data and interpretation of the results indicated that the dataset was informative. Using stepwise regressions, multiple environmental and ecological factors were found to determine nestbox selection. Distance from the edge of the wood was the most influential (this did not change over 18 years), with boxes in the woodland interior being selected preferentially. There was a significant negative relationship with the presence of ferns (indicative of damp shady conditions). The presence of oak (a long-lived species), and the clumped structural complexity of the canopy were also important factors in the final model. There was no evidence of competition between dormice and birds or other mammals. The results provide greater understanding of artificial dormouse nest-site requirements and indicate that, in terms of habitat selection, long-term volunteer-collected datasets contribute usefully to understanding the requirements of species with an important conservation status.

Snails and their trails: the multiple functions of trail-following in gastropods.

Snails are highly unusual among multicellular animals in that they move on a layer of costly mucus, leaving behind a trail that can be followed and utilized for various purposes by themselves or by other animals. Here we review more than 40 years of experimental and theoretical research to try to understand the ecological and evolutionary rationales for trail-following in gastropods. Data from over 30 genera are currently available, representing a broad taxonomic range living in both aquatic and terrestrial environments. The emerging picture is that the production of mucus trails, which initially was an adaptation to facilitate locomotion and/or habitat extension, has evolved to facilitate a multitude of additional functions. Trail-following supports homing behaviours, and provides simple mechanisms for self-organisation in groups of snails, promoting aggregation and thus relieving desiccation and predation pressures. In gastropods that copulate, trail-following is an important component in mate-searching, either as an alternative, or in addition to the release of water- or air-borne pheromones. In some species, this includes a capacity of males not only to identify trails of conspecifics but also to discriminate between trails laid by females and males. Notably, trail discrimination seems important as a pre-zygotic barrier to mating in some snail species. As production of a mucus trail is the most costly component of snail locomotion, it is also tempting to speculate that evolution has given rise to various ways to compensate for energy losses. Some snails, for example, increase energy intake by eating particles attached to the mucus of trails that they follow, whereas others save energy through reducing the production of their own mucus by moving over previously laid mucus trails. Trail-following to locate a prey item or a mate is also a way to save energy. While the rationale for trail-following in many cases appears clear, the basic mechanisms of trail discrimination, including the mechanisms by which many snails determine the polarity of the trail, are yet to be experimentally determined. Given the multiple functions of trail-following we propose that future studies should adopt an integrated approach, taking into account the possibility of the simultaneous occurrence of many selectively advantageous roles of trail-following behaviour in gastropods. We also believe that future opportunities to link phenotypic and genotypic traits will make possible a new generation of research projects in which gastropod trail-following, its multitude of functions and evolutionary trade-offs can be further elucidated.

Hyperphosphorylation of CREB in human dopaminergic neurons: a kinetic study of cellular distribution of total CREB and phospho-CREB following oxidative stress.

The neurotoxin, 6-hydroxy dopamine (6-OHDA)-induced oxidative stress causes alterations in intracellular signalling events and activates cellular and molecular mechanisms leading to the degeneration of the dopamine-containing neurons (DCNs). The cyclic-AMP response element-binding protein (CREB) modulates the transcription of mitochondrial and nuclear genes upon phosphorylation. However, oxidative stress disrupts CREB functions and inhibits CREB signalling pathways. We have measured the activities and levels of both total CREB and its phosphorylated form (phospho-CREB) in cytosolic, mitochondrial and nuclear compartments in control (untreated) and stressed (6-OHDA-treated) DCN, differentiated from the ReNVM cell line (dDCN) at 0, 24 and 72 h time points following oxidative stress. Our results indicate that CREB phosphorylation occurs in all three subcellular locations. It further shows significant disruption of the phosphorylation process by 6-OHDA treatment and shows tridirectional trafficking of total CREB and phospho-CREB between cytosol, mitochondria and nucleus following oxidative stress induced by 6-OHDA treatment. In conclusion, our results indicate the presence of specific signalling molecules in all the compartments studied and their involvement in the signal transduction processes, where total CREB and phospho-CREB levels and activities are either upregulated or downregulated to balance each other for their roles.

Protection against malaria by intravenous immunization with a nonreplicating sporozoite vaccine.

Consistent, high-level, vaccine-induced protection against human malaria has only been achieved by inoculation of Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) sporozoites (SPZ) by mosquito bites. We report that the PfSPZ Vaccine--composed of attenuated, aseptic, purified, cryopreserved PfSPZ--was safe and well tolerated when administered four to six times intravenously (IV) to 40 adults. Zero of six subjects receiving five doses and three of nine subjects receiving four doses of 1.35 × 10(5) PfSPZ Vaccine and five of six nonvaccinated controls developed malaria after controlled human malaria infection (P = 0.015 in the five-dose group and P = 0.028 for overall, both versus controls). PfSPZ-specific antibody and T cell responses were dose-dependent. These data indicate that there is a dose-dependent immunological threshold for establishing high-level protection against malaria that can be achieved with IV administration of a vaccine that is safe and meets regulatory standards.

Regression with empirical variable selection: description of a new method and application to ecological datasets.

Despite recent papers on problems associated with full-model and stepwise regression, their use is still common throughout ecological and environmental disciplines. Alternative approaches, including generating multiple models and comparing them post-hoc using techniques such as Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), are becoming more popular. However, these are problematic when there are numerous independent variables and interpretation is often difficult when competing models contain many different variables and combinations of variables. Here, we detail a new approach, REVS (Regression with Empirical Variable Selection), which uses all-subsets regression to quantify empirical support for every independent variable. A series of models is created; the first containing the variable with most empirical support, the second containing the first variable and the next most-supported, and so on. The comparatively small number of resultant models (n = the number of predictor variables) means that post-hoc comparison is comparatively quick and easy. When tested on a real dataset--habitat and offspring quality in the great tit (Parus major)--the optimal REVS model explained more variance (higher R(2)), was more parsimonious (lower AIC), and had greater significance (lower P values), than full, stepwise or all-subsets models; it also had higher predictive accuracy based on split-sample validation. Testing REVS on ten further datasets suggested that this is typical, with R(2) values being higher than full or stepwise models (mean improvement = 31% and 7%, respectively). Results are ecologically intuitive as even when there are several competing models, they share a set of "core" variables and differ only in presence/absence of one or two additional variables. We conclude that REVS is useful for analysing complex datasets, including those in ecology and environmental disciplines.

Robustness of self-organised systems to changes in behaviour: an example from real and simulated self-organised snail aggregations.

Group or population level self-organised systems comprise many individuals displaying group-level emergent properties. Current theory indicates that individual-level behaviours have an effect on the final group-level behaviour; that is, self-organised systems are sensitive to small changes in individual behaviour. Here we examine a self-organised behaviour in relation to environmentally-driven individual-level changes in behaviour, using both natural systems and computer simulations. We demonstrate that aggregations of intertidal snails slightly decrease in size when, owing to hotter and more desiccating conditions, individuals forage for shorter periods--a seemingly non-adaptive behaviour for the snails since aggregation reduces desiccation stress. This decrease, however, only occurs in simple experimental systems (and simulations of these systems). When studied in their natural and more complex environment, and simulations of such an environment, using the same reduced foraging time, no difference in aggregation behaviour was found between hot and cool days. These results give an indication of how robust self-organised systems are to changes in individual-level behaviour. The complexity of the natural environment and the interactions of individuals with this environment, therefore, can result in self-organised systems being more resilient to individual-level changes than previously assumed.