Higher total energy costs strain the elderly, especially low-income, across 31 developed countries.

Addressing the total energy cost burden of elderly people is essential for designing equitable and effective energy policies, especially in responding to energy crisis in an aging society. It is due to the double impact of energy price hikes on households-through direct impact on fuel bills and indirect impact on the prices of goods and services consumed. However, while examining the household energy cost burden of the elderly, their indirect energy consumption and associated cost burden remain poorly understood. This study quantifies and compares the direct and indirect energy footprints and associated total energy cost burdens for different age groups across 31 developed countries. It reveals that the elderly have larger per capita energy footprints, resulting from higher levels of both direct and indirect energy consumption compared with the younger age groups. More importantly, the elderly, especially the low-income elderly, have a higher total energy cost burden rate. As the share of elderly in the total population rapidly grows in these countries, the larger per capita energy footprint and associated cost burden rate of elderly people would make these aging countries more vulnerable in times of energy crises. It is therefore crucial to develop policies that aim to reduce energy consumption and costs, improve energy efficiency, and support low-income elderly populations. Such policies are necessary to reduce the vulnerability of these aging countries to the energy crisis.

Does interstate trade of agricultural products in the U.S. alleviate land and water stress?

Interregional free-trade of agricultural products is expected to transfer embodied (virtual) water from more to less water-productive regions. However, irrigation in semi-arid to arid regions may significantly push up agricultural productivity but cause local water scarcity. This may result in a puzzle: inter-regional trade may save overall water consumption but lead to more severe local water scarcity. An analogous puzzle may exist for farmland, for instance, trade may save farmland but not address farmland scarcity. To test the existence of these two important puzzles, we applied environmentally extended multi-regional input-output models to obtain the inter-regional virtual agricultural water and land transfer across 48 states of the conterminous U.S. and estimated their agricultural land and water footprints in 2017. Such a detailed analysis showed that while the land-abundant Midwestern states exported a sizable amount of virtual farmland to other densely populated areas and foreign nations, the water-stressed Western U.S. and Southwestern U.S. states, like California, Arizona, and New Mexico, exported considerable amounts of water-intensive crops such as fruits, vegetables and tree nuts to the Eastern U.S. and overseas, thus worsen the local water scarcity of those water scarce states. Our analysis highlights a critical dilemma inherent in an economic productivity-focused incentive regime: It frequently leads to increased withdrawal of scarce water. Therefore, resource scarcity rents need to be reflected in inter-regional trade with the support of local environmental policies.

The Socio-Environmental Determinants of Childhood Malnutrition: A Spatial and Hierarchical Analysis.

Despite a remarkable reduction in global poverty and famines, substantial childhood malnutrition continues to persist. In 2017, over 50 million and 150 million young children suffered from acute malnutrition (wasting) and chronic malnutrition (stunting), respectively. Yet, the measurable impact of determinants is obscure. We evaluate proposed socio-environmental related determinants of stunting and wasting across Kenya and Nigeria and quantify their effectiveness. We combine health and demographic data from Kenya and Nigeria Demographic Health Surveys (2003, 2008-2009, 2013, 2014) with spatially explicit precipitation, temperature, and vegetation data. Geospatial and disaggregated data help to understand better who is at risk and where to target mitigation efforts. We evaluate the responsiveness of malnutrition indicators using a four-level random intercept hierarchical generalized logit model. We find that spatial and hierarchical relationships explain 28% to 36% of malnutrition outcome variation. Temporal variation in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation corresponds with more than a 50% change in malnutrition rates. Wasting is most impacted by mother's education, family wealth, clinical delivery, and vaccinations. Stunting is most impacted by family wealth, mother's education, clinical delivery, vaccinations, and children asymptomatic of fever, cough, or diarrhea. Remotely monitored climatic variables are powerful determinants, however, their effects are inconsistent across different indicators and locations.

Incorporating platinum circular economy into China's hydrogen pathways toward carbon neutrality.

Hydrogen is gaining tremendous traction in China as the fuel of the future to support the country's carbon neutrality ambition. Despite that hydrogen as fuel largely hinges on the supply of platinum (Pt), the dynamic interlinkage between Pt supply challenges, hydrogen development pathways, and climate targets in China has yet to be deeply analyzed. Here, we adopt an integrated assessment model to address this important concern and corresponding strategies for China. The results indicate that the booming hydrogen development would drive China's cumulative demand for Pt metal to reach 4,200-5,000 tons. Much of this demand, met through a limited supply pattern, is vulnerable to price volatility and heightened geopolitical risks, which can be mitigated through circular economy strategies. Consequently, a coordinated approach to leverage both global sustainable Pt sourcing and a robust domestic Pt circular economy is imperative for ensuring cost-effective hydrogen production, aligned with a climate-safe future.

Water consumption and biodiversity: Responses to global emergency events.

Given that it was a once-in-a-century emergency event, the confinement measures related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused diverse disruptions and changes in life and work patterns. These changes significantly affected water consumption both during and after the pandemic, with direct and indirect consequences on biodiversity. However, there has been a lack of holistic evaluation of these responses. Here, we propose a novel framework to study the impacts of this unique global emergency event by embedding an environmentally extended supply-constrained global multi-regional input-output model (MRIO) into the drivers-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. This framework allowed us to develop scenarios related to COVID-19 confinement measures to quantify country-sector-specific changes in freshwater consumption and the associated changes in biodiversity for the period of 2020-2025. The results suggest progressively diminishing impacts due to the implementation of COVID-19 vaccines and the socio-economic system's self-adjustment to the new normal. In 2020, the confinement measures were estimated to decrease global water consumption by about 5.7% on average across all scenarios when compared with the baseline level with no confinement measures. Further, such a decrease is estimated to lead to a reduction of around 5% in the related pressure on biodiversity. Given the interdependencies and interactions across global supply chains, even those countries and sectors that were not directly affected by the COVID-19 shocks experienced significant impacts: Our results indicate that the supply chain propagations contributed to 79% of the total estimated decrease in water consumption and 84% of the reduction in biodiversity loss on average. Our study demonstrates that the MRIO-enhanced DSPIR framework can help quantify resource pressures and the resultant environmental impacts across supply chains when facing a global emergency event. Further, we recommend the development of more locally based water conservation measures-to mitigate the effects of trade disruptions-and the explicit inclusion of water resources in post-pandemic recovery schemes. In addition, innovations that help conserve natural resources are essential for maintaining environmental gains in the post-pandemic world.

Satellite forecasting of crop harvest can trigger a cross-hemispheric production response and improve global food security.

Global food security is increasingly threatened by climate change and regional human conflicts. Abnormal fluctuations in crop production in major exporting countries can cause volatility in food prices and household consumption in importing countries. Here we show that timely forecasting of crop harvest from satellite data over major exporting regions can trigger production response in the opposite hemisphere to offset the short-term fluctuations and stabilize global food supply. Satellite forecasting can reduce the fluctuation extents of country-level prices by 1.1 to 12.5 percentage points for anticipated wheat shortage or surplus in Russia and Ukraine, and even reverse the price shock in importing countries for anticipated soybean shortage in Brazil. Our research demonstrates that by leveraging the seasonal lags in crop calendars between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, operational crop monitoring from satellite data can provide a mechanism to improve global food security.