Time series analysis of mumps and meteorological factors in Beijing, China.

BACKGROUND: Over the past decades there have been outbreaks of mumps in many countries, even in populations that were vaccinated. Some studies suggest that the incidence of mumps is related to meteorological changes, but the results of these studies vary in different regions. To date there is no reported study on correlations between mumps incidence and meteorological parameters in Beijing, China. METHODS: A time series analysis incorporating selected weather factors and the number of mumps cases from 1990 to 2012 in Beijing was performed. First, correlations between meteorological variables and the number of mumps cases were assessed. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) was then constructed to predict mumps cases. RESULTS: Mean temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and wind speed were significantly associated with mumps incidence. After constructing the SARIMAX model, mean temperature at lag 0 (ß = 0.016, p < 0.05, 95% confidence interval 0.001 to 0.032) was positively associated with mumps incidence, while vapor pressure at lag 2 (ß = -0.018, p < 0.05, 95% confidence interval -0.038 to -0.002) was negatively associated. SARIMAX (1, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)12 with temperature at lag 0 was the best predictive construct. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of mumps in Beijing from 1990 to 2012 was significantly correlated with meteorological variables. Combining meteorological variables, a predictive SARIMAX model that could be used to preemptively estimate the incidence of mumps in Beijing was established.

[The Incidence of Hypertension in Beijing Region Based on Yun-qi Theory: an Exploratory Research].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the scientificity of Yunqi theory based on incidence of disease related recognitions such as year evolutive phase, host climatic qi, six climatic factors, celestial manager qi, qi in the earth by analyzing data of hypertension incidence. METHODS: A total of 1,265 inpatients with confirmed first diagnosis as hypertension were recruited at Dongzhimen Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine from February 4, 1999 to February 4, 2011. Each period (including year evolutive phase, host climatic qi, guest climatic qi) was deducted based on Yun-qi theory. Their ratios of different phases and qi in the total number of hypertension inpatients number were calculated and statistically tested. RESULTS: There was statistical difference in ratios at year evolutive phase, celestial manager qi, and qi in the earth (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The incidence of hypertension has certain difference in each period, which is consistent with Yun-qi theory.

[A wavelet analysis on the onset cycle of scarlet fever in Beijing and its relationship with theory of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the onset cycle of scarlet fever in Beijing and its association with theory of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors (FEPSCF). METHODS: Based on the monthly scarlet fever data from 1970 to 2004, Complex Morlet wavelet was adopted to analyze the annual incidence and the incidence of six climatic factors in the past 35 years. Its association with the cycles of FEP-SCF was explored. The features of heavenly stems and earthly branches in the year that the wave peak corresponded and their correlations with doctrine of FEPSCF were analyzed. RESULTS: The annual incidence of scarlet fever and the incidence of FEPSCF had two main cycles, i.e., 5 years and 28 years. The 5-year primary cycle was consistent with 5-year cycle of FEPSCF theory. The high incidence year of 5-year primary cycle was Jinyun. CONCLUSIONS: The cycle of five evolutive phases was consistent with the onset cycle of scarlet fever. The quasi-periodic phenomenon and multi-cycle superimposed phenomenon of FEPSCF theory existed in the incidence of scarlet fever.

Characteristics of registered clinical trials on traditional Chinese medicine for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has been fully committed to the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. An increasing number of clinical trials have been registered to evaluate the effects of TCM for COVID-19. The aim of this study was to review the existing TCM clinical trial registrations and identify potentially promising and available TCM therapies, in order to provide a reference for the global management of COVID-19. METHODS: All clinical trials on TCM for COVID-19 registered in registry platforms worldwide were searched. The data of registration temporal trend, design, objective, interventions, and relevant information were reviewed and summarized. RESULTS: 161 TCM trials were identified from three registries (January 26 to May 14 2020,). Of these, 94 (58.4%) were randomized controlled trials and 114 trials (70.8%) assessed therapeutic effects; while the remainder focused on prevention, rehabilitation, and the epidemiology of TCM syndromes. Eight trials (5.0%) had completed their recruitment. TCM interventions with potential for further evaluation in terms of prevention were moxibustion, Huoxiang Zhengqi pill and Jinye Baidu granules. For treatment of COVID-19, Qingfei Paidu decoction, Huashi Baidu decoction, Lianhua Qingwen capsules, Toujie Quwen granules and Xiyanping injection, and Xuebijing injection were to be tested for their therapeutic effects and symptoms relief. For rehabilitation, Tai Chi and Liuzijue were to be tested for improving patients' lung function. CONCLUSION: Some potentially promising TCM interventions have been identified and deserve further evaluation to establish their evidence base, particularly on populations outside of China.

Can Chinese Medicine Be Used for Prevention of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)? A Review of Historical Classics, Research Evidence and Current Prevention Programs.

OBJECTIVE: Since December 2019, an outbreak of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan, and rapidly spread to almost all parts of China. This was followed by prevention programs recommending Chinese medicine (CM) for the prevention. In order to provide evidence for CM recommendations, we reviewed ancient classics and human studies. METHODS: Historical records on prevention and treatment of infections in CM classics, clinical evidence of CM on the prevention of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and H1N1 influenza, and CM prevention programs issued by health authorities in China since the COVID-19 outbreak were retrieved from different databases and websites till 12 February, 2020. Research evidence included data from clinical trials, cohort or other population studies using CM for preventing contagious respiratory virus diseases. RESULTS: The use of CM to prevent epidemics of infectious diseases was traced back to ancient Chinese practice cited in Huangdi's Internal Classic (Huang Di Nei Jing) where preventive effects were recorded. There were 3 studies using CM for prevention of SARS and 4 studies for H1N1 influenza. None of the participants who took CM contracted SARS in the 3 studies. The infection rate of H1N1 influenza in the CM group was significantly lower than the non-CM group (relative risk 0.36, 95% confidence interval 0.24-0.52; n=4). For prevention of COVID-19, 23 provinces in China issued CM programs. The main principles of CM use were to tonify qi to protect from external pathogens, disperse wind and discharge heat, and resolve dampness. The most frequently used herbs included Radix astragali (Huangqi), Radix glycyrrhizae (Gancao), Radix saposhnikoviae (Fangfeng), Rhizoma Atractylodis Macrocephalae (Baizhu), Lonicerae Japonicae Flos (Jinyinhua), and Fructus forsythia (Lianqiao). CONCLUSIONS: Based on historical records and human evidence of SARS and H1N1 influenza prevention, Chinese herbal formula could be an alternative approach for prevention of COVID-19 in high-risk population. Prospective, rigorous population studies are warranted to confirm the potential preventive effect of CM.

Gene-splitting technology: a novel approach for the containment of transgene flow in Nicotiana tabacum.

The potential impact of transgene escape on the environment and food safety is a major concern to the scientists and public. This work aimed to assess the effect of intein-mediated gene splitting on containment of transgene flow. Two fusion genes, EPSPSn-In and Ic-EPSPSc, were constructed and integrated into N. tabacum, using Agrobacterium tumefaciens-mediated transformation. EPSPSn-In encodes the first 295 aa of the herbicide resistance gene 5-enolpyruvyl shikimate-3-phosphate synthase (EPSPS) fused with the first 123 aa of the Ssp DnaE intein (In), whereas Ic-EPSPSc encodes the 36 C-terminal aa of the Ssp DnaE intein (Ic) fused to the rest of EPSPS C terminus peptide sequences. Both EPSPSn-In and Ic-EPSPSc constructs were introduced into the same N. tabacum genome by genetic crossing. Hybrids displayed resistance to the herbicide N-(phosphonomethyl)-glycine (glyphosate). Western blot analysis of protein extracts from hybrid plants identified full-length EPSPS. Furthermore, all hybrid seeds germinated and grew normally on glyphosate selective medium. The 6-8 leaf hybrid plants showed tolerance of 2000 ppm glyphosate in field spraying. These results indicated that functional EPSPS protein was reassembled in vivo by intein-mediated trans-splicing in 100% of plants. In order to evaluate the effect of the gene splitting technique for containment of transgene flow, backcrossing experiments were carried out between hybrids, in which the foreign genes EPSPSn-In and Ic-EPSPSc were inserted into different chromosomes, and non-transgenic plants NC89. Among the 2812 backcrossing progeny, about 25% (664 plantlets) displayed glyphosate resistance. These data indicated that transgene flow could be reduced by 75%. Overall, our findings provide a new and highly effective approach for biological containment of transgene flow.

Correlation analysis for the attack of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors based on the Chinese medicine theory of Yunqi and the medical-meteorological forecast model.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the impact of meteorological factors on the outbreak of bacillary dysentery, so as to provide suggestions for disease prevention. METHODS: Based on the Chinese medicine theory of Yunqi, the descriptive statistics, single-factor correlation analysis and back-propagation artificial neural net-work were conducted using data on five basic meteorological factors and data on incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing, China, for the period 1970-2004. RESULTS: The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed significant positive correlation relationship with the precipitation, relative humidity, vapor pressure, and temperature, respectively. The incidence of bacillary dysentery showed a negatively correlated relationship with the wind speed and the change trend of average wind speed. The results of medical-meteorological forecast model showed a relatively high accuracy rate. CONCLUSIONS: There is a close relationship between the meteorological factors and the incidence of bacillary dysentery, but the contributions of which to the onset of bacillary dysentery are different to each other.

[The influence of the economy in the fight to save TCM in Republic of China].

Influenced by national nihilism in modern times, many people do not recognize Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). Its economic value and social economic support played an important role in the victory of the fight for TCM in the period of the Republic of China. Meanwhile, the education, clinical practice and administration of TCM during the period of Republic of China were all under the constraint of economy. Analysis of the economy's impact on the development of TCM is of practical value. Related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, TCM could be considered both as an important component of national economy and as a state investment. Only when the relationship between TCM and social economy is emphasized and handled well, could the national health industry be rapidly developed.