Author Correction: Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise.

Change history: In Fig. 2b of this Letter, 'Relative wetland change (km2)' should have read 'Relative wetland change (%)' and equations (2) and (3) have been changed from 'RSLRcrit = (m × TRe) × Sed + i' and 'Sedcrit = (RSLR - i)/(m × TRe)', respectively. The definition of the variables in equation (2) has been updated. These errors have been corrected online.

Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise.

The response of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise during the twenty-first century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20 and 90 per cent (for low and high sea-level rise scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, which will in turn result in the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services1-3. These projections do not necessarily take into account all essential geomorphological4-7 and socio-economic system feedbacks8. Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers both the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion, and the accommodation space, namely, the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and be colonized by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global sea-level rise and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the twenty-first century. On the basis of our simulations, we find that, globally, rather than losses, wetland gains of up to 60 per cent of the current area are possible, if more than 37 per cent (our upper estimate for current accommodation space) of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies1-3, we project that until 2100, the loss of global coastal wetland area will range between 0 and 30 per cent, assuming no further accommodation space in addition to current levels. Our simulations suggest that the resilience of global wetlands is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastal zone and such infrastructure is expected to change over the twenty-first century. Rather than being an inevitable consequence of global sea-level rise, our findings indicate that large-scale loss of coastal wetlands might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through careful nature-based adaptation solutions to coastal management.

Self-organization of river vegetation leads to emergent buffering of river flows and water levels.

Global climate change is expected to impact hydrodynamic conditions in stream ecosystems. There is limited understanding of how stream ecosystems interact and possibly adapt to novel hydrodynamic conditions. Combining mathematical modelling with field data, we demonstrate that bio-physical feedback between plant growth and flow redistribution triggers spatial self-organization of in-channel vegetation that buffers for changed hydrological conditions. The interplay of vegetation growth and hydrodynamics results in a spatial separation of the stream into densely vegetated, low-flow zones divided by unvegetated channels of higher flow velocities. This self-organization process decouples both local flow velocities and water levels from the forcing effect of changing stream discharge. Field data from two lowland, baseflow-dominated streams support model predictions and highlight two important stream-level emergent properties: vegetation controls flow conveyance in fast-flowing channels throughout the annual growth cycle, and this buffering of discharge variations maintains water depths and wetted habitat for the stream community. Our results provide important evidence of how plant-driven self-organization allows stream ecosystems to adapt to changing hydrological conditions, maintaining suitable hydrodynamic conditions to support high biodiversity.

Ecosystem-based coastal defence in the face of global change.

The risk of flood disasters is increasing for many coastal societies owing to global and regional changes in climate conditions, sea-level rise, land subsidence and sediment supply. At the same time, in many locations, conventional coastal engineering solutions such as sea walls are increasingly challenged by these changes and their maintenance may become unsustainable. We argue that flood protection by ecosystem creation and restoration can provide a more sustainable, cost-effective and ecologically sound alternative to conventional coastal engineering and that, in suitable locations, it should be implemented globally and on a large scale.

Long-term organic carbon sequestration in tidal marsh sediments is dominated by old-aged allochthonous inputs in a macrotidal estuary.

Tidal marshes are vegetated coastal ecosystems that are often considered as hotspots of atmospheric CO2 sequestration. Although large amounts of organic carbon (OC) are indeed being deposited on tidal marshes, there is no direct link between high OC deposition rates and high OC sequestration rates due to two main reasons. First, the deposited OC may become rapidly decomposed once it is buried and, second, a significant part of preserved OC may be allochthonous OC that has been sequestered elsewhere. In this study we aimed to identify the mechanisms controlling long-term OC sequestration in tidal marsh sediments along an estuarine salinity gradient (Scheldt estuary, Belgium and the Netherlands). Analyses of deposited sediments have shown that OC deposited during tidal inundations is up to millennia old. This allochthonous OC is the main component of OC that is effectively preserved in these sediments, as indicated by the low radiocarbon content of buried OC. Furthermore, OC fractionation showed that autochthonous OC is decomposed on a decadal timescale in saltmarsh sediments, while in freshwater marsh sediments locally produced biomass is more efficiently preserved after burial. Our results show that long-term OC sequestration is decoupled from local biomass production in the studied tidal marsh sediments. This implies that OC sequestration rates are greatly overestimated when they are calculated based on short-term OC deposition rates, which are controlled by labile autochthonous OC inputs. Moreover, as allochthonous OC is not sequestered in-situ, it does not contribute to active atmospheric CO2 sequestration in these ecosystems. A correct assessment of the contribution of allochthonous OC to the total sedimentary OC stock in tidal marsh sediments as well as a correct understanding of the long-term fate of locally produced OC are both necessary to avoid overestimations of the rate of in-situ atmospheric CO2 sequestration in tidal marsh sediments.

Mapping the spatio-temporal distribution of key vegetation cover properties in lowland river reaches, using digital photography.

The presence of vegetation in stream ecosystems is highly dynamic in both space and time. A digital photography technique is developed to map aquatic vegetation cover at species level, which has a very high spatial and a flexible temporal resolution. A digital single-lens reflex (DSLR) camera mounted on a handheld telescopic pole is used. The low-altitude (5 m) orthogonal aerial images have a low spectral resolution (red-green-blue), high spatial resolution (∼1.9 pixels cm-2, ∼1.3 cm length) and flexible temporal resolution (monthly). The method is successfully applied in two lowland rivers to quantify four key properties of vegetated rivers: vegetation cover, patch size distribution, biomass and hydraulic resistance. The main advantages are that the method is (i) suitable for continuous and discontinuous vegetation covers, (ii) of very high spatial and flexible temporal resolution, (iii) relatively fast compared to conventional ground survey methods, (iv) non-destructive and (v) relatively cheap and easy to use, and (vi) the software is widely available and similar open source alternatives exist. The study area should be less than 10 m wide, and the prevailing light conditions and water turbidity levels should be sufficient to look into the water. Further improvements of the image processing are expected in the automatic delineation and classification of the vegetation patches.

Marshes and Mangroves as Nature-Based Coastal Storm Buffers.

Tidal marshes and mangroves are increasingly valued for nature-based mitigation of coastal storm impacts, such as flooding and shoreline erosion hazards, which are growing due to global change. As this review highlights, however, hazard mitigation by tidal wetlands is limited to certain conditions, and not all hazards are equally reduced. Tidal wetlands are effective in attenuating short-period storm-induced waves, but long-period storm surges, which elevate sea levels up to several meters for up to more than a day, are attenuated less effectively, or in some cases not at all, depending on storm conditions, wetland properties, and larger-scale coastal landscape geometry. Wetlands often limit erosion, but storm damage to vegetation (especially mangrove trees) can be substantial, and recovery may take several years. Longer-term wetland persistence can be compromised when combined with other stressors, such as climate change and human disturbances. Due to these uncertainties, nature-based coastal defense projects need to adopt adaptive management strategies.

Early indicators of tidal ecosystem shifts in estuaries.

Forecasting transitions between tidal ecosystem states, such as between bare tidal flats and vegetated marshes, is crucial because it may imply the irreversible loss of valuable ecosystem services. In this study, we combine geospatial analyses of three European estuaries with a simple numerical model to demonstrate that the development of micro-topographic patterning on tidal flats is an early indicator of marsh establishment. We first show that the development of micro-topographic patterns precedes vegetation establishment, and that patterns tend to form only on tidal flats with a slope of <0.3 degrees. Numerical modelling then provides an explanation for the formation of micro-topography due to the natural concentration of draining surface water over very gentle slopes. We find this early indicator to be robust across three estuaries where anthropogenic deepening and narrowing has occurred in recent decades, which may suggest its broader applicability to other estuaries with similar morphological management.

Impacts of land-use change on carbon dynamics in China's coastal wetlands.

The impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics has been previously documented at local and global scales, but uncertainty persists for coastal wetlands due to geographical variability and field data limitations. Field-based assessments of plant and soil C contents and stocks of various LULCC types were conducted in nine regions along the coastline of China (21°-40°N). These regions cover natural coastal wetlands (NWs, including salt marshes and mangroves) and former wetlands converted to different LULCC types, including reclaimed wetlands (RWs), dry farmlands (DFs), paddy fields (PFs) and aquaculture ponds (APs). The results showed that LULCC generally decreased the C contents and stocks of the plant-soil system by 29.6 % ± 2.5 % and 40.4 % ± 9.2 %, respectively, while it slightly increased the soil inorganic C contents and stocks. Wetlands converted to APs and RWs lost greater ecosystem organic C stocks (EOC, sum of plants and top 30 cm of soil organic C stocks) than other LULCC types. The annual potential CO2 emissions estimated from EOC loss depended on the LULCC type, with an average emission of 7.92 ± 2.94 Mg CO2-eq ha-1 yr-1. The change rate of EOC in all LULCC types showed a significantly deceasing trend with increasing latitude (p < 0.05). The loss of EOC due to LULCC was larger in mangroves than in salt marshes. The results showed that the response of plant and soil C variables to LULCC was mainly related to differences in plant biomass, median grain size, soil water content and soil NH4+-N content. This study emphasized the importance of LULCC in triggering C loss in natural coastal wetlands, which strengthens the greenhouse effect. We suggest that the current land-based climate models and climate mitigation policies must account for specific land-use types and their associated land management practices to achieve more effective emission reduction.

Vegetation controls on channel network complexity in coastal wetlands.

Channel networks are key to coastal wetland functioning and resilience under climate change. Vegetation affects sediment and hydrodynamics in many different ways, which calls for a coherent framework to explain how vegetation shapes channel network geometry and functioning. Here, we introduce an idealized model that shows how coastal wetland vegetation creates more complexly branching networks by increasing the ratio of channel incision versus topographic diffusion rates, thereby amplifying the channelization feedback that recursively incises finer-scale side-channels. This complexification trend qualitatively agrees with and provides an explanation for field data presented here as well as in earlier studies. Moreover, our model demonstrates that a stronger biogeomorphic feedback leads to higher and more densely vegetated marsh platforms and more extensive drainage networks. These findings may inspire future field research by raising the hypothesis that vegetation-induced self-organization enhances the storm surge buffering capacity of coastal wetlands and their resilience under sea-level rise.

Evaluating adaptation options to sea level rise and benefits to agriculture: The Ebro Delta showcase.

Sea level rise (SLR) is threatening low-lying coastal areas such as river deltas. The Ebro river Delta (Spain) is representative of coastal systems particularly vulnerable to SLR due to significant sediment retention behind upstream dams (up to 99%), thereby dramatically reducing the capacity for deltaic sediment accretion. Rice production is the main economic activity, covering 66% of the delta area, and is negatively affected by SLR because of flooding and soil salinization. Therefore, appropriate adaptation measures are needed to preserve rice production. We combined Geographic Information Systems and Generalized Linear Models to identify zones prone to flooding and increasing soil salinity, and to calculate the so-called sediment deficit, that is the amount of sediment needed to raise the land to compensate flooding and soil salinization. We modelled SLR scenarios predicted by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and analysed the economic feasibility (not the technical feasibility) of reintroducing fluvial sediments retained in the upstream river dam reservoirs into the delta plain, which can contribute to maintaining land elevation and rice production with SLR. To do this, the costs of the sediment reintroduction measures and their benefits in terms of avoided loss of rice production income were evaluated with an approximate economic cost-benefit analysis. Results predicted that between 35 and 90% of the rice field area will be flooded in the best and worst SLR scenarios considered (SLR = 0.5 m and 1.8 m by 2100, respectively), with a sediment deficit of 130 and 442 million tonnes, with an associated cost of sediment reintroduction of 13 and 226 million €. The net benefit of rice production maintenance was 24.6 and 328 €/ha. The proposed adaptation measure has a positive effect on rice production and can be considered as an innovative management option for maintaining deltaic areas under SLR.

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise.

Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.

Supporting Spartina: Interdisciplinary perspective shows Spartina as a distinct solid genus.

In 2014, a DNA-based phylogenetic study confirming the paraphyly of the grass subtribe Sporobolinae proposed the creation of a large monophyletic genus Sporobolus, including (among others) species previously included in the genera Spartina, Calamovilfa, and Sporobolus. Spartina species have contributed substantially (and continue contributing) to our knowledge in multiple disciplines, including ecology, evolutionary biology, molecular biology, biogeography, experimental ecology, biological invasions, environmental management, restoration ecology, history, economics, and sociology. There is no rationale so compelling to subsume the name Spartina as a subgenus that could rival the striking, global iconic history and use of the name Spartina for over 200 yr. We do not agree with the subjective arguments underlying the proposal to change Spartina to Sporobolus. We understand the importance of both the objective phylogenetic insights and of the subjective formalized nomenclature and hope that by opening this debate we will encourage positive feedback that will strengthen taxonomic decisions with an interdisciplinary perspective. We consider that the strongly distinct, monophyletic clade Spartina should simply and efficiently be treated as the genus Spartina.

Top-down vs. bottom-up control on vegetation composition in a tidal marsh depends on scale.

The relative impact of top-down control by herbivores and bottom-up control by environmental conditions on vegetation is a subject of debate in ecology. In this study, we hypothesize that top-down control by goose foraging and bottom-up control by sediment accretion on vegetation composition within an ecosystem can co-occur but operate at different spatial and temporal scales. We used a highly dynamic marsh system with a large population of the Greylag goose (Anser anser) to investigate the potential importance of spatial and temporal scales on these processes. At the local scale, Greylag geese grub for below-ground storage organs of the vegetation, thereby creating bare patches of a few square metres within the marsh vegetation. In our study, such activities by Greylag geese allowed them to exert top-down control by setting back vegetation succession. However, we found that the patches reverted back to the initial vegetation type within 12 years. At large spatial (i.e. several square kilometres) and temporal scales (i.e. decades), high rates of sediment accretion surpassing the rate of local sea-level rise were found to drive long-term vegetation succession and increased cover of several climax vegetation types. In summary, we conclude that the vegetation composition within this tidal marsh was primarily controlled by the bottom-up factor of sediment accretion, which operates at large spatial as well as temporal scales. Top-down control exerted by herbivores was found to be a secondary process and operated at much smaller spatial and temporal scales.

Correction: Ecosystem Engineering by Plants on Wave-Exposed Intertidal Flats Is Governed by Relationships between Effect and Response Traits.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0138086.].

Ecosystem Engineering by Plants on Wave-Exposed Intertidal Flats Is Governed by Relationships between Effect and Response Traits.

In hydrodynamically stressful environments, some species--known as ecosystem engineers--are able to modify the environment for their own benefit. Little is known however, about the interaction between functional plant traits and ecosystem engineering. We studied the responses of Scirpus tabernaemontani and Scirpus maritimus to wave impact in full-scale flume experiments. Stem density and biomass were used to predict the ecosystem engineering effect of wave attenuation. Also the drag force on plants, their bending angle after wave impact and the stem biomechanical properties were quantified as both responses of stress experienced and effects on ecosystem engineering. We analyzed lignin, cellulose, and silica contents as traits likely effecting stress resistance (avoidance, tolerance). Stem density and biomass were strong predictors for wave attenuation, S. maritimus showing a higher effect than S. tabernaemontani. The drag force and drag force per wet frontal area both differed significantly between the species at shallow water depths (20 cm). At greater depths (35 cm), drag forces and bending angles were significantly higher for S. maritimus than for S. tabernaemontani. However, they do not differ in drag force per wet frontal area due to the larger plant surface of S. maritimus. Stem resistance to breaking and stem flexibility were significantly higher in S. tabernaemontani, having a higher cellulose concentration and a larger cross-section in its basal stem parts. S. maritimus had clearly more lignin and silica contents in the basal stem parts than S. tabernaemontani. We concluded that the effect of biomass seems more relevant for the engineering effect of emergent macrophytes with leaves than species morphology: S. tabernaemontani has avoiding traits with minor effects on wave attenuation; S. maritimus has tolerating traits with larger effects. This implies that ecosystem engineering effects are directly linked with traits affecting species stress resistance and responding to stress experienced.

Effects of wind waves versus ship waves on tidal marsh plants: a flume study on different life stages of Scirpus maritimus.

Recent research indicates that many ecosystems, including intertidal marshes, follow the alternative stable states theory. This theory implies that thresholds of environmental factors can mark a limit between two opposing stable ecosystem states, e.g. vegetated marshes and bare mudflats. While elevation relative to mean sea level is considered as the overall threshold condition for colonization of mudflats by vegetation, little is known about the individual driving mechanisms, in particular the impact of waves, and more specifically of wave period. We studied the impact of different wave regimes on plants in a full scale flume experiment. Seedlings and adult shoots of the pioneer Scirpus maritimus were subjected to two wave periods at two water levels. Drag forces acting on, and sediment scouring occurring around the plants were quantified, as these are the two main mechanisms determining plant establishment and survival. Depending on life stage, two distinct survival strategies emerge: seedlings present a stress avoidance strategy by being extremely flexible, thus limiting the drag forces and thereby the risk of breaking. Adult shoots present a stress tolerance strategy by having stiffer stems, which gives them a higher resistance to breaking. These strategies work well under natural, short period wind wave conditions. For long period waves, however, caused e.g. by ships, these survival strategies have a high chance to fail as the flexibility of seedlings and stiffness of adults lead to plant tissue failure and extreme drag forces respectively. This results in both cases in strongly bent plant stems, potentially limiting their survival.

Use of spatial analysis to test hypotheses on plant recruitment in a hyper-arid ecosystem.

Mounds originating from wind-blown sediment accumulation beneath vegetation (nebkhas) often indicate land degradation in dry areas. Thus far, most nebkha research has focused on individual plants. Here, we aimed to explore population-scale processes (up to scales of about 100 m) that might explain an observed nebkha landscape pattern. We mapped the Rhazya stricta Decne. population in a 3 ha study site in a hyper-arid region of Saudi Arabia. We compared the spatial patterns of five different cohorts (age classes) of observed nebkha host plants to those expected under several hypothesized drivers of recruitment and intraspecific interaction. We found that all R. stricta cohorts had a limited fractional vegetation cover and established in large-scale clusters. This clustering weakened with cohort age, possibly indicating merging of neighboring vegetation patches. Different cohort clusters did not spatially overlap in most cases, indicating that recruitment patterns changed position over time. Strong indications were found that the main drivers underlying R. stricta spatial configurations were allogenic (i.e. not driven by vegetation) and dynamic. Most likely these drivers were aeolian-driven sand movement or human disturbance which forced offspring recruitment in spatially dynamic clusters. Competition and facilitation were likely active on the field site too, but apparently had a limited effect on the overall landscape structure.

Estuaries as filters: the role of tidal marshes in trace metal removal.

Flux calculations demonstrate that many estuaries are natural filters for trace metals. Yet, the underlying processes are poorly investigated. In the present study, it was hypothesized that intertidal marshes contribute significantly to the contaminant filter function of estuaries. Trace metal concentrations and sediment characteristics were measured along a transect from the subtidal, over an intertidal flat and marsh to a restored marsh with controlled reduced tide. Metal concentrations in the intertidal and restored marsh were found to be a factor two to five higher than values in the subtidal and intertidal flat sediments. High metal concentrations and high accretion rates indicate a high metal accumulation capacity of the intertidal marshes. Overbank sedimentation in the tidal marshes of the entire estuary was calculated to remove 25% to 50% of the riverine metal influx, even though marshes comprise less than 8% of the total surface of the estuary. In addition, the large-scale implementation of planned tidal marsh restoration projects was estimated to almost double the trace metal storage capacity of the present natural tidal marshes in the estuary.