A preliminary estimate of the environmental burden of disease associated with exposure to pyrethroid insecticides and ADHD in Europe based on human biomonitoring.

Human biomonitoring (HBM) data indicate that exposure to pyrethroids is widespread in Europe, with significantly higher exposure observed in children compared to adults. Epidemiological, toxicological, and mechanistic studies raise concerns for potential human health effects, particularly, behavioral effects such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in children at low levels of exposure. Based on an exposure-response function from a single European study and on available quality-assured and harmonized HBM data collected in France, Germany, Iceland, Switzerland, and Israel, a preliminary estimate of the environmental burden of disease for ADHD associated with pyrethroid exposure was made for individuals aged 0-19 years. The estimated annual number of prevalence-based disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per million inhabitants were 27 DALYs for Israel, 21 DALYs for France, 12 DALYs for both Switzerland and Iceland, and 3 DALYs for Germany; while the annual ADHD cases per million inhabitants attributable to pyrethroids were 2189 for Israel, 1710 for France, 969 for Iceland, 944 for Switzerland, and 209 for Germany. Direct health costs related to ADHD ranged between 0.3 and 2.5 million EUR yearly per million inhabitants for the five countries. Additionally, a substantial number of ADHD cases, on average 18%, were associated with pyrethroid exposure. Yet, these figures should be interpreted with caution given the uncertainty of the estimation. A sensitivity analysis showed that by applying a different exposure-response function from outside the EU, the population attributable fraction decreased from an average of 18 to 7%. To ensure more robust disease burden estimates and adequate follow-up of policy measures, more HBM studies are needed, along with increased efforts to harmonize the design of epidemiological studies upfront to guarantee meta-analysis of exposure-response functions. This is particularly important for pyrethroids as evidence of potential adverse health effects is continuously emerging.

Human health risk-benefit assessment of fish and other seafood: a scoping review.

Fish and other seafood are important sources of nutrients, but they are also sources of chemical contaminants that may cause adverse health effects. This article aimed to identify existing risk-benefit assessments (RBA) of fish, shellfish, and other seafood, compare methodologies, discuss differences and commonalities in findings, and identify limitations and ways forward for future studies. We conducted a scoping review of the scientific literature of studies in all languages published from 2000 through April 2019. We identified 106 RBA of fish and other seafood across Europe, Asia, North America, Africa, and at the global level. Studies were heterogeneous in terms of types of fish and other seafood considered, beneficial and adverse compounds assessed, and overall methodology. Collected data showed that a diet consisting of a variety of lean and fatty fish and other seafood is recommended for the overall population and that women of childbearing age and children should limit the consumption of fish and other seafood types that have a high likelihood of contamination. Our review emphasizes the need for evidence-based, up-to-date, and harmonized approaches in RBA in general.

The health impact of substituting unprocessed red meat by pulses in the Danish diet.

BACKGROUND: Diets consisting of high amounts of animal-based protein have been associated with adverse public health effects and are often deemed environmentally unsustainable. Therefore, replacing red meat by pulses has been proposed to reduce the adverse impact on human health and environment. However, unprocessed red meat is an important source of nutrients, such as vitamin B12, iron, zinc and selenium, and the substitution may have negative impact on nutrient adequacy. METHOD: Using a risk-benefit assessment (RBA) approach, we, therefore, estimated the health impact of substituting unprocessed red meat by pulses on the burden of non-communicable diseases in Denmark, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). Furthermore, we assessed the impact of the substitution on nutrient adequacy. RESULTS: We found that 187 (95% UI: 209; 168) healthy years of life could be gained per 100,000 individuals per year by substituting 100% of unprocessed red meat by pulses in the Danish diet. We found a decrease in the intake of vitamin B12, zinc and selenium due to the substitution. An additional 10% of the Danish population will become at risk of vitamin B12 and selenium inadequacy, and an additional 20% will be at risk of zinc inadequacy due to the substitution. For iron, a small decrease in the proportion at risk of inadequacy was found. CONCLUSION: Substitution of unprocessed red meat by pulses was estimated to provide a beneficial health impact on the burden of non-communicable disease, expressed in DALY. Additionally, it was found that the complete substitution will lead to a higher risk of nutrient inadequacies.

Risk-benefit assessment of foods and its role to inform policy decisions: outcome of an international workshop.

Policy decisions in public health require consideration and evaluation of trade-offs for which transparency and science-based evidence is needed. Improvement of decision-support tools is essential to help guide food policy decisions that promote healthy diets and meet the challenges of food systems without compromising food security, food safety, and sovereignty. Risk-benefit assessment of foods (RBA) is an established methodological approach designed to inform policy decisions within the area of nutrition and food safety. Despite methodological developments, translation of RBA findings into policies is still limited. In this context, a stakeholder workshop held in May 2023 gathered RBA experts and food regulators from Europe to identify the challenges, obstacles and opportunities in using evidence generated through RBAs to inform food policy decisions. A structured process was implemented to collect their views through online surveys, breakout groups, and plenary discussions. As a secondary objective, food regulators' views on other approaches for holistic risk assessment fit for food systems analysis were also explored. This paper summarizes the main findings of the workshop and discusses policy implications and future perspectives to improve the area of RBA and its role in food policymaking.

Evaluating the health impact of increased linseed consumption in the Danish population.

Consumption of linseeds has been suggested to have beneficial effects on human health. However, toxic constituents of linseed may compromise these benefits. We conducted a quantitative risk-benefit assessment to evaluate the overall health impact of increasing linseed intake up to 45 g/day in the Danish population (15-74 years). We quantified the risks associated with increased cadmium exposure and the benefits associated with increased intake of dietary fibre. Increased intakes of alpha-linoleic acid (ALA) were included in a sensitivity analysis. The overall health impact of different linseed intake scenarios was estimated in terms of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). We found that the beneficial effects of linseed due to increased intake of dietary fibre outweighed the adverse health effects due to increased cadmium exposure in all scenarios. Up to 670 DALYs/100,000 individuals could be averted per year by increasing linseed consumption in the Danish population. The estimated beneficial health impact increased further when including ALA in the assessment. Different sources of uncertainty might affect the results, and more research is needed on both the health effects associated with intake of linseed and its constituents, and the bioavailability of ALA and cadmium from linseed to further improve the risk-benefit assessment.

Harmonized approach to estimate the burden of disease of dietary exposure to four chemical contaminants - A French study.

Exposure to chemical contaminants found in foods has been associated with various adverse health effects. Burden of disease studies are increasingly used to estimate the public health impact of such exposures. The aims of this study were to estimate the burden of disease due to dietary exposure to four chemicals in France in 2019 (lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), methylmercury (MeHg), and inorganic arsenic (i-As)), and to develop harmonized methods that can be applied for other chemicals and countries. We used national food consumption data from the third French national food consumption survey, chemical food monitoring data from the Second French Total Diet Study (TDS), dose-response data and disability weights from scientific literature, and disease incidence and demographics from national statistics. We adopted a risk assessment approach to estimate disease burden, incidence, mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) attributable to dietary exposure to the chemicals. In all models, we harmonized food classification and exposure assessment. We propagated uncertainty through the calculations using Monte Carlo simulation. We estimated that, among these chemicals, i-As and Pb were responsible for the highest disease burden. i-As was estimated to cause 820 DALYs, or approximately 1.25 DALYs per 100,000 inhabitants. The estimated burden of Pb was 1834 to 5936 DALYs, or 2.7 (lower bound) to 8.96 (upper bound) DALYs/100,000. The burden of MeHg (192 DALYs), and Cd (0 DALY) was substantially lower. The foods contributing most to disease burden was drinks (30 %), "other foods" (mostly composite dishes) (19 %), and fish and seafood (7 %). Interpretation of estimates needs to consider all underlying uncertainties, linked with data and knowledge gaps. The harmonized models are the first to make use of data from TDS, which are available in several other countries. Thus, they can be applied to estimate the burden and to rank food-associated chemicals at national level.

Approaches for Health Effect Characterization in Risk-Benefit Assessment of Foods: A Comparative Case Study.

One of the challenges in quantitative risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods is the choice of approach for health effect characterization to estimate the health impact of dietary changes. The purpose of health effect characterization is to describe an association between intake of a food or food component and a health effect in terms of a dose-response relationship. We assessed the impact of the choice of approach for health effect characterization in RBA in two case studies based on substitution of (i) white rice by brown rice and (ii) unprocessed red meat by vegetables. We explored this by comparing the dose-response relations linking a health effect with (i) a food component present in the food, (ii) a food based on non-specified substitution analyses, and (iii) a food based on specified substitution analyses. We found that the choice of approach for health effect characterization in RBA may largely impact the results of the health impact estimates. Conducting the calculations only for a food component may neglect potential effects of the food matrix and of the whole food on the diet-disease association. Furthermore, calculations based on associations for non-specified substitutions include underlying food substitutions without specifying these. Data on relevant specified substitutions, which could reduce this type of bias, are unfortunately rarely available. Assumptions and limitations of the health effect characterization approaches taken in RBA should be documented and discussed, and scenario analysis is encouraged when multiple options are available.

The burden of disease of three food-associated heavy metals in clusters in the Danish population - Towards targeted public health strategies.

Lifestyle and sociodemographics are likely to influence dietary patterns, and, as a result, human exposure to chemical contaminants in foods and their associated health impact. We aimed to characterize subgroups of the Danish population based on diet and sociodemographic indicators, and identify those bearing a higher disease burden due to exposure to methylmercury (MeHg), cadmium (Cd) and inorganic arsenic (i-As). We collected dietary, lifestyle, and sociodemographic data on the occurrence of chemical contaminants in foods from Danish surveys. We grouped participants according to similarities in diet, lifestyle, and sociodemographics using Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), and estimated disease burden in disability-adjusted life years (DALY). SOM clustering resulted in 12 population groups with distinct characteristics. Exposure to contaminants varied between clusters and was largely driven by intake of fish, seafood and cereal products. Five clusters had an estimated annual burden >20 DALY/100,000. The cluster with the highest burden had a high proportion of women of childbearing age, with most of the burden attributed to MeHg. Individuals belonging to the top three clusters had higher education and physical activity, were mainly non-smokers and lived in urban areas. Our findings may facilitate the development of preventive strategies targeted to the most affected subgroups.

Risk-Benefit Assessment of Consumption of Rice for Adult Men in China.

Objective: To evaluate the health impact of current and alternative patterns of rice consumption in Chinese adult men (40-79 years of age). Methods: We applied a risk-benefit assessment (RBA) model that took into account the health effects of selenium (Se), cadmium (Cd), and inorganic arsenic (i-As). The health effects included the prevention of prostate cancer associated with exposure to Se, and an increased risk of lung, bladder, and skin cancer for i-As and chronic kidney disease (CKD) for Cd. We defined the baseline scenario (BS) as the current individual mean daily consumption of rice in the population of interest and two alternative scenarios (AS): AS1 = 50 g/day and AS2 = 200 g/day. We estimated the health impact for different age groups in terms of change in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (ΔDALY). Results: The BS of rice consumption was 71.5-105.4 g/day in different age groups of adult men in China. We estimated that for AS1, the mean ΔDALY was -2.76 to 46.2/100,000 adult men of 40-79 years old. For AS2, the mean ΔDALY was 41.3 to 130.8/100,000 individuals in this population group. Conclusion: Our results showed that, based on associated exposure to selenium, cadmium, and i-As in rice, the current consumption of rice does not pose a risk to adult men in China. Also, a lower (50 g/day) or higher (200 g/day) rice consumption will not bring larger beneficial effects.

Risk-benefit in food safety and nutrition - Outcome of the 2019 Parma Summer School.

Risk-benefit assessment is the comparison of the risk of a situation to its related benefits, i.e. a comparison of scenarios estimating the overall health impact. The risk-benefit analysis paradigm mirrors the classical risk analysis one: risk-benefit assessment goes hand-in-hand with risk-benefit management and risk-benefit communication. The various health effects associated with food consumption, together with the increasing demand for advice on healthy and safe diets, have led to the development of different research disciplines in food safety and nutrition. In this sense, there is a clear need for a holistic approach, including and comparing all of the relevant health risks and benefits. The risk-benefit assessment of foods is a valuable approach to estimate the overall impact of food on health. It aims to assess together the negative and positive health effects associated with food intake by integrating chemical and microbiological risk assessment with risk and benefit assessment in food safety and nutrition. The 2019 Parma Summer School on risk-benefit in food safety and nutrition had the objective was to provide an opportunity to learn from experts in the field of risk-benefit approach in food safety and nutrition, including theory, case studies, and communication of risk-benefit assessments plus identify challenges for the future. It was evident that whereas tools and approaches have been developed, more and more case studies have been performed which can form an inherent validation of the risk-benefit approach. Executed risk-benefit assessment case studies apply the steps and characteristics developed: a problem formulation (with at least 2 scenarios), a tiered approach until a decision can be made, one common currency to describe both beneficial and adverse effects (DALYs in most instances). It was concluded that risk-benefit assessment in food safety and nutrition is gaining more and more momentum, while also many challenges remain for the future. Risk-benefit is on the verge of really enrolling into the risk assessment and risk analysis paradigm. The interaction between risk-benefit assessors and risk-benefit managers is pivotal in this, as is the interaction with risk-benefit communicators.

Correction to: Population vulnerability to COVID-19 in Europe: a burden of disease analysis.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s13690-020-00433-y.].

Population vulnerability to COVID-19 in Europe: a burden of disease analysis.

BACKGROUND: Evidence has emerged showing that elderly people and those with pre-existing chronic health conditions may be at higher risk of developing severe health consequences from COVID-19. In Europe, this is of particular relevance with ageing populations living with non-communicable diseases, multi-morbidity and frailty. Published estimates of Years Lived with Disability (YLD) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study help to characterise the extent of these effects. Our aim was to identify the countries across Europe that have populations at highest risk from COVID-19 by using estimates of population age structure and YLD for health conditions linked to severe illness from COVID-19. METHODS: Population and YLD estimates from GBD 2017 were extracted for 45 countries in Europe. YLD was restricted to a list of specific health conditions associated with being at risk of developing severe consequences from COVID-19 based on guidance from the United Kingdom Government. This guidance also identified individuals aged 70 years and above as being at higher risk of developing severe health consequences. Study outcomes were defined as: (i) proportion of population aged 70 years and above; and (ii) rate of YLD for COVID-19 vulnerable health conditions across all ages. Bivariate groupings were established for each outcome and combined to establish overall population-level vulnerability. RESULTS: Countries with the highest proportions of elderly residents were Italy, Greece, Germany, Portugal and Finland. When assessments of population-level YLD rates for COVID-19 vulnerable health conditions were made, the highest rates were observed for Bulgaria, Czechia, Croatia, Hungary and Bosnia and Herzegovina. A bivariate analysis indicated that the countries at high-risk across both measures of vulnerability were: Bulgaria; Portugal; Latvia; Lithuania; Greece; Germany; Estonia; and Sweden. CONCLUSION: Routine estimates of population structures and non-fatal burden of disease measures can be usefully combined to create composite indicators of vulnerability for rapid assessments, in this case to severe health consequences from COVID-19. Countries with available results for sub-national regions within their country, or national burden of disease studies that also use sub-national levels for burden quantifications, should consider using non-fatal burden of disease estimates to estimate geographical vulnerability to COVID-19.

A probabilistic approach for risk-benefit assessment of food substitutions: A case study on substituting meat by fish.

Accounting for substitution of foods is inevitable when evaluating health impact of dietary changes. But substitution behavior and the associated health impact may vary between individuals. We therefore propose the use of probabilistic methods to model substitution and assess health impact distributions in risk-benefit assessment (RBA) of foods. We investigated the health impact of substituting red and processed meat with fish in the Danish adult population and the variability in health impact. We applied probabilistic approaches in modeling the substitution to reflect variability between individual substitution behaviors. Furthermore, when multiple intake scenarios are compared, we propose a method for adjusting intake differences for individual day-to-day variability. We estimated that 134 (95% UI: 102; 169) Disability-Adjusted Life Years/100,000 were averted per year by the substitution. The health impact varied considerably by age and sex, with the largest health benefit of the substitution observed for young women in the child-bearing age and for the older generation, mainly men. This study provides further insight in how the health impact of substituting meat by fish varies between individuals and suggests a framework to be applied in RBAs of other food substitutions. Our results are relevant for policy makers in defining targeted public health strategies.

Investigating the risk-benefit balance of substituting red and processed meat with fish in a Danish diet.

Danish dietary guidelines recommend the Danish population to increase the consumption of fish while decreasing the consumption of red and processed meat to prevent nutrition-related diseases. However, the presence of contaminants in these foods may affect the overall risk-benefit balance of such substitution. We performed a quantitative risk-benefit assessment on substituting red and processed meat with fish in a Danish diet. We modeled the substitution among Danish adults based on data from a Danish dietary survey and compared four alternative scenarios based on varying chemical and nutrient exposures to the current consumption. We quantified the overall health impact of the substitutions in terms of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Approximately 150 DALYs/100,000 individuals could be averted each year if Danish adults consumed 350 g of fish/week (fatty or mix of fatty and lean) while decreasing the consumption of red and processed meat. A lower beneficial impact was observed when consumption of fish was restricted to lean fish (80 DALYs/100,000 averted), and a marked health loss (180 DALYs/100,000) was estimated when consumption was restricted to tuna. Our results show an overall beneficial effect of the substitution if the consumption of large predatory fish is low and at least half is fatty fish.