Development of risk prediction models for incident frailty and their performance evaluation.

There is currently no tool to predict incident frailty despite various frailty assessment tools. This study aimed to develop risk prediction models for incident frailty and evaluated their performance on discrimination, calibration, and internal validity. This 2-year follow-up study used data from 5076 non-frail older adults (51% women) living in Tokyo at baseline. We used the Kaigo-Yobo checklist, a standardised assessment instrument, to determine frailty. Twenty questionnaire-based variables that include sociodemographic, medical, behavioural, and subjective factors were entered into binary logistic regression analysis with stepwise backward elimination (p < 0.1 for retention in the model). Discrimination and calibration were assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively. For the assessment of internal validity, we used a 5-fold cross-validation method and calculated the mean AUC. At the follow-up survey, 15.0% of men and 10.2% of women were frail. The frailty risk prediction model was composed of 10 variables for men and 11 for women. AUC of the model was 0.71 in men and 0.72 in women. The P-value for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test in both models was more than 0.05. For internal validity, the mean AUC was 0.71 in men and 0.72 in women. Probability of incident frailty rose with an increasing risk score that was calculated from the developed models. These results demonstrated that the developed models enable the identification of non-frail older adults at high risk of incident frailty, which could help to implement preventive approaches in community settings.

Effectiveness of a community-wide intervention for population-level frailty and functional health in older adults: A 2-year cluster nonrandomized controlled trial.

This cluster nonrandomized controlled trial examined the effectiveness of a 2-year community-wide intervention (CWI) on population-level frailty and functional health among older adults. We allocated 18 districts in Ota City, Tokyo, Japan, to intervention (3 districts, A-C) and control (15 districts) groups. Of the 15,500 stratified randomly sampled residents aged 65-84 years, 11,701 (6009 in intervention and 5692 in control groups) gave valid responses to the baseline survey and were followed for 2 years. Using participatory action research framework, we developed an evidence-based CWI to promote frailty prevention. The outcomes were changes in frailty (primary), functional health (secondary, i.e., physical, nutritional, and psychosocial variables), and awareness. Primary analyses showed no significant group by time interactions in frailty prevalence (difference in multivariate-adjusted change between groups, 1.8 percentage points [PP] [95% CI, -0.1, 3.6]). Although changes in functional health were similar between groups, prespecified subgroup analyses showed a benefit for ≥150 min/week of walking (3.9 PP [1.9-5.8]) in district A, and for exercise ≥1 time/week (2.1 PP [0.1-4.0]), Motor Fitness Scale (0.10 points [0.01-0.20]), Dietary Variety Score (DVS) (0.10 points [0.01-0.18]), DVS of ≥7 (2.0 PP [0.01-4.1]), and going outdoors ≥1 time/day (2.1 PP [0.1-4.1]) in district C. Awareness of our CWI was significantly higher in the intervention group (multivariate-adjusted difference between groups, 5.8 PP [3.9-7.8]). This CWI increased awareness in intervention group and improved population-level functional health in intervention subgroups in the short term but was not effective for population-level frailty prevention at 2 years. Trial registration: UMIN-CTR (UMIN000026515).

[The effects of the "Tabepo Check Sheet," which lists 10 food groups, on the dietary variety of older adults in a metropolitan area].

Objectives　This study examined the effects of checking the "Tabepo Check Sheet," which has 10 food groups, on changes in dietary variety among older adults living in Japanese metropolitan areas.Methods　We used baseline and two-year follow-up data from a community-wide intervention to prevent frailty in Ota City, Tokyo. A total of 8,635 non-disabled residents (4,145 men and 4,490 women) aged 65-84 years who responded to the self-administered questionnaire surveys in 2016 and 2018, were included in the two analyses. In 2018, we asked about their experience with the "Tabepo Check Sheet," which had been distributed among participating communities from three districts in Ota City since July 2017. The "checked group" consists of those who answered "habitually check" or "have checked." Dietary variety was assessed using the Dietary Variety Score (DVS). We performed propensity score matching with a 1:1 ratio (checked group vs. non-checked group) for the following variables: demographic, socioeconomic, physical, medical, and lifestyle variables, and DVS. After propensity score matching, 876 participants from the checked and non-checked groups were selected. We used a two-way ANOVA to examine the changes in DVS over two years. We also compared the rates of DVS ≤3 and ≥7 points in 2018 using multivariate adjusted logistic regression analysis.Results　In 2018, 11.9% of the respondents had checked the "Tabepo Check Sheet." The DVS mean±standard deviation in the checked and non-checked groups were 3.9±2.2 points and 3.9±2.3 points in 2016, respectively, and 4.5±2.4 points and 4.1±2.4 points in 2018, respectively. The DVS showed a significant interaction between checking experience and time (p<0.001). The rates of DVS ≤3 points in 2018 were 35.2% and 43.8% among the checked and non-checked groups, respectively. The multivariate adjusted odds ratio (OR) of DVS ≤3 points was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.56-0.83) in the checked group versus the non-checked group. The rates of DVS ≥7 points in 2018 were 21.7% and 16.8% among the checked and non-checked groups, respectively. The multivariate adjusted OR (95% CI) of DVS ≥7 points was 1.40 (1.10-1.78) in the checked versus the non-checked group.Conclusions　These results suggest that checking the "Tabepo Check Sheet" may improve dietary variety. However, the effects of dietary variety improvement may be weakened by the incidence of skipped meals, social isolation, frailty, and lack of social participation.

[Awareness of the term "frailty" and its correlates among older adults living in a metropolitan area].

Objectives　This study aimed to examine the awareness of the term "frailty" and its correlates among older adults living in a Japanese metropolitan area.Methods　We used baseline and 2-year follow-up data from a community-wide intervention on preventing frailty in Ota City, Tokyo. In July 2016, we conducted a self-administered questionnaire survey via mail to investigate the lifestyle and health status of 15,500 non-disabled residents aged 65-84 years from all 18 districts. In July 2018, we investigated the awareness of the term "frailty" in the same sample using a different questionnaire, and 10,228 people (4,977 men and 5,251 women) were included in the analyses. In addition, 9,069 people (4,347 men and 4,722 women) who responded to both 2016 and 2018 surveys were analyzed for correlates of awareness of the term "frailty." We categorized the responses "I know the meaning" or "I have heard of it but do not know the meaning" as awareness of the term. Decision tree and multilevel Poisson regression analyses were performed to examine the association of the following with awareness of "frailty": age, marital status, living situation, education, equivalent income, body mass index, number of chronic diseases, alcohol consumption, smoking status, Dietary Variety Score (DVS), and presence or absence of lower back and knee pains, depressive mood, exercise habits, social activity, social isolation, and frailty.Results　Awareness of the term "frailty" was estimated as 20.1% in total (15.5% in men and 24.3% in women). The subgroup with the highest "frailty" awareness was women who exercised, were socially active, and had a DVS of 4 or more (awareness of 36.3%). Significant independent correlates of "frailty" awareness were age (as per year: multivariate-adjusted prevalence ratio=1.03, [95% confidence interval=1.02-1.04]), sex (women: 1.35 [1.21-1.51]), educational attainment (high school: 1.27 [1.11-1.45], higher than junior college/vocational schools: 1.47 [1.28-1.70]), equivalent income (more than 2.5 million yen/year: 1.12 [1.01-1.25]), exercise habits (presence: 1.26 [1.11-1.43]), DVS (6 points or more: 1.37 [1.21-1.55]), social activity (presence: 1.33 [1.20-1.49]), social isolation (presence: 0.75 [0.67-0.85]), and frailty (presence: 0.72 [0.62-0.84]).Conclusions　Although many policies refer to "frailty," the level of awareness of the term among older adults was low. Older adults, especially women, who had higher socioeconomic status, better exercise and dietary habits, and stronger social connections, were significantly more aware of the term. In contrast, individuals who were socially isolated and/or frail did not know the term. Thus, it is crucial to develop specific measures to promote frailty prevention among high-risk individuals.

A Community-Wide Intervention Trial for Preventing and Reducing Frailty Among Older Adults Living in Metropolitan Areas: Design and Baseline Survey for a Study Integrating Participatory Action Research With a Cluster Trial.

BACKGROUND: Preventing and reducing frailty is an important challenge for Japan in the next decade, especially in metropolitan areas. We launched a community-wide intervention trial (the Ota Genki Senior Project) in 2016 to develop effective community-based strategies for frailty prevention in metropolitan areas. This report describes the study design and baseline survey. METHODS: This study is a community-wide intervention trial that integrates participatory action research into a cluster non-randomized controlled trial for adults aged 65 years or older living in Ota City, Tokyo. We allocated 3 of 18 districts to an intervention group and the other 15 to a control group. Using a mailed self-administered questionnaire, we conducted a baseline survey of 15,500 residents (8,000 and 7,500 in the intervention and control groups, respectively) from July through August 2016. In addition to socioeconomic status and lifestyle variables, we assessed frailty status (primary outcome) and physical, nutritional, and psychosocial variables (secondary outcomes). Based on the baseline findings, an intervention to improve outcomes will be implemented as participatory action research. Follow-up surveys will be conducted in the same manner as the baseline survey. RESULTS: A total of 11,925 questionnaires were returned (76.9% response rate; 6,105 [76.3%] and 5,820 [77.6%] in the intervention and control groups, respectively), and 11,701 were included in the analysis (mean age, 74.3 [standard deviation, 5.5] years; 48.5% were men). CONCLUSIONS: This study is expected to contribute to development of a prototype of a community-wide frailty prevention strategy, especially in metropolitan areas in Japan. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN000026515).

Individual- and community-level neighbor relationships and physical activity among older Japanese adults living in a metropolitan area: a cross-sectional multilevel analysis.

BACKGROUND: Informal neighbor relationships (NRs) are considered a structural aspect of social relationships. Although NRs might affect physical activity (PA), no previous study has simultaneously examined compositional and contextual associations of NRs with PA. In this study, we examined whether individual- and community-level NRs were independently associated with PA. METHODS: We analyzed cross-sectional data from 8592 (4340 men and 4252 women) non-disabled residents aged 65-84 years from all 18 districts of Ota City, Tokyo. PA was assessed by using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form. In addition, we calculated moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA), its components (vigorous PA [VPA], moderate PA [MPA], and walking time [WT]), and sitting time (ST). Individual-level NRs were categorized as "visiting each other," "standing and chatting," "exchange of greetings," or "none." Community-level NRs were defined as the proportions of residents with active NRs (i.e., those in the categories visiting each other and standing and chatting) in the 18 districts. Using multilevel regression analyses, we examined independent associations of individual- and community-level NRs with PA variables and adjusted for important confounders. RESULTS: Individual-level NRs were consistently positively associated with MVPA and its components (VPA, MPA [in men], and WT) in both sexes, and the dose-response relationships were significant (all P < 0.041 for trend). In men, community-level NRs (by 1% estimation) were positively associated with individual MVPA (2.1 metabolic equivalent-hours/week, 95% confidence interval: 0.7-3.4), VPA (8.6 min/week, 2.7-14.4), and WT (11.6 min/week, 2.2-20.9), regardless of the degree of individual-level NRs. Significant cross-level interactions of NRs with MVPA and VPA were observed among men, and the dose-response relationships were significant (both P < 0.037 for trend). Neither individual- nor community-level NRs were associated with ST in either sex. CONCLUSIONS: Men and women with inaccessible neighbors engaged in less MVPA, while men living in communities with active NRs engaged in more MVPA, regardless of individual-level NRs. NRs at the individual and community level might help prevent physical inactivity among men.

[Relationship between eating alone and dietary variety among urban older Japanese adults].

Objectives　This study aimed to investigate the practice of eating alone, including its frequency, among urban older Japanese adults and to clarify its association with dietary variety.Methods　In June 2016, self-reported questionnaires were mailed to 15,500 men and women aged 65 years or older living in Ota City, Tokyo without nursing care certification. Of these, 11,925 questionnaires were returned (a 76.9% response rate), and responses from 8,812 subjects were analyzed (a 56.9% valid response rate). The frequency of eating alone, defined as the number of days per week eating alone for each meal, was reported as zero, one to three, four to six, or seven days. A Dietary Variety Score (DVS) was obtained based upon consumption frequencies per week of 10 food groups. Total points were calculated, and three or fewer points indicated low dietary variety. The association between eating alone and low dietary variety was analyzed by binomial logistic regression, with adjustments for potential confounding variables including age, body mass index (BMI), location, educational history, equivalent income, employment, living alone, medical history, and smoking and drinking habits.Results　The results indicated that 47.1% of men and 48.5% of women ate alone at least one day per week, and 14.9% of men and 16.9% of women ate alone every day. For men, after adjusting for potential confounders (ORs=1.51-2.00), the odds ratios (ORs) of low DVSs were significantly higher among those who ate alone one to three days, four to six days, or seven days per week compared to those who ate with others. For women, adjusted ORs were not significant among those who ate alone every day (OR=1.15, 95% CI=0.92-1.43). Men and women who ate alone had significantly lower ORs of eating green or yellow vegetables, fruits, and fats/oils almost every day compared to those who ate with others.Conclusion　Among urban Japanese older adults, about 50% of subjects reported eating alone. Eating alone was associated with lower dietary variety scores regardless of age, income, and family status. Therefore, the present findings might be useful for developing strategies for addressing undernutrition among urban older adults eating alone.

Identifying the specific associations between participation in social activities and healthy lifestyle behaviours in older adults.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the longitudinal association between participation in social activities and healthy lifestyle behaviours. STUDY DESIGN: This 2-year follow-up study used data from 6168 older adults (73.5 ± 5.3 years; 49% men). We studied participation in five types of social activities at baseline: participation in volunteer, sports, hobbies, senior clubs, and neighbourhood-association groups. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The healthy lifestyle behaviours were physical activity (time spent walking: ≥150 min/week; or less), eating habits (dietary variety score: ≥4 points; or less), and intellectual activity (subcomponents of the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence: 4 points; or less). RESULTS: In the follow-up survey, 19% of participants were physically inactive, 53% had unfavourable eating habits, and 34% had diminished intellectual activity. Multilevel modified Poisson regression analysis showed that participation in sports groups was associated with a lower relative risk (RR) of physical inactivity (RR=0.82 [0.72, 0.93]) and unfavourable eating habits (RR=0.95 [0.90, 1.00]). Participation in hobby groups reduced the RR of unfavourable eating habits (RR=0.93 [0.90, 0.97]) and diminished intellectual activity (RR=0.90 [0.85, 0.96]). Participation in volunteering was associated with a lower RR of diminished intellectual activity (RR=0.84 [0.75, 0.95]). Relative to non-participation, participating in two or more social activities was associated with a 9% (95% CI: 0.83, 1.00) lower RR for physical inactivity, a 12% (95% CI: 0.82, 0.95) lower RR for unfavourable eating habits, and a 17% (95% CI: 0.77, 0.89) lower RR for diminished intellectual activity. CONCLUSIONS: Both the nature and the number of social activities determine the longitudinal effects of social participation on healthy lifestyle behaviours.

Association of Dog and Cat Ownership with Incident Frailty among Community-Dwelling Elderly Japanese.

Accumulating evidence from studies of human-animal interaction highlights the physiological, psychological, and social benefits for older owners of dogs and cats. This longitudinal study examined whether experience of dog/cat ownership protects against incident frailty in a population of community-dwelling older Japanese. Among 7881 non-frail community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or older who completed a mail survey in 2016, 6,197 (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [5.3] years; 53.6% women) were reevaluated in a 2018 follow-up survey. Frailty was assessed with the Kaigo-Yobo Checklist. Incident frailty was defined as a score of four or higher in the follow-up survey. Overall, 870 (14.0%) were current dog/cat owners, 1878 (30.3%) were past owners and 3449 (55.7%) were never owners. During the 2-year follow-up period, 918 (14.8%) developed incident frailty. Mixed-effects logistic regression models showed that the odds ratio for incident frailty among dog/cat owners, as compared with never owners, current owners were 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-1.09) and past owner were 0.84 (0.71-0.98), after controlling for important confounders at baseline. In stratified analysis, the risk of incident frailty was lower for past dog owners than for cat owners. Longer experience of caring for a dog requires physical activity and increases time outdoors spent dog walking and thus may have an important role in maintaining physical and social function and reducing frailty risk among older adults.

Correction: Physical, social, and psychological characteristics of community-dwelling elderly Japanese dog and cat owners.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0206399.].

Differences in the Prevalence of and Factors Associated with Frailty in Five Japanese Residential Areas.

This study aimed to examine area differences in the prevalence of and factors associated with frailty. This cross-sectional study included metropolitan (eastern and western areas), suburban (districts A and B), and rural areas of Japan (n = 9182, woman 50.9%). Frailty was defined by using a standardized questionnaire comprising three subcategories (fall, nutritional status, and social activities). The prevalence of frailty in the five areas was 14.2% to 30.6% for men and 11.5% to 21.4% for women. The areas with a high frailty prevalence had a significantly lower nutritional status or social activity, or both. Compared to the western metropolitan area, among men, the multivariable-adjusted prevalence ratio (APR) of frailty was significantly higher in the eastern metropolitan area and lower in suburban district A, and among women, the eastern metropolitan and rural areas had significantly higher APRs. Area-stratified multiple Poisson regression analysis showed that age, bone and joint disease, and a subjective economic status were associated with frailty in most areas and that some factors were area-specific, i.e., living alone (for men living in metropolitan areas) and underweight (for women living in suburban areas). The frailty prevalence differed by area, even after multivariable adjustment. Area-specific characteristics and factors associated with frailty may result in area differences.

Exercise Arrangement Is Associated with Physical and Mental Health in Older Adults.

PURPOSE: Although exercising with others might have health benefits, no previous study has comprehensively examined associations of exercise arrangement with physical activity (PA), physical function (PF), and mental health (MH). We examined whether PA, PF, and MH are better when exercising with others than when exercising alone or not exercising. METHODS: We analyzed cross-sectional data from 7759 (4007 men and 3752 women) nondisabled residents age 65 to 84 yr. PA, PF, and MH were assessed with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (PA sufficiency defined as ≥150 min·wk of moderate-to-vigorous PA), Motor Fitness Scale (higher PF defined as total score ≥12 in men and ≥10 in women), and World Health Organization-Five Well-Being Index (better MH defined as a total score ≥13), respectively. Exercise arrangement was classified as "nonexerciser," "exercising alone," and "exercising with others." Using multilevel logistic regression analyses, we examined independent associations of exercise arrangement with PA, PF, and MH. RESULTS: Compared with exercising alone, the multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) among nonexercisers and those exercising with others were 0.21 (0.17-0.25) and 1.32 (1.04-1.67), respectively, for PA sufficiency, 0.47 (0.40-0.57) and 1.12 (0.94-1.34) for higher PF, and 0.69 (0.58-0.82) and 1.45 (1.17-1.79) for better MH, respectively, in men. In women, the corresponding odds ratios were 0.37 (0.30-0.46) and 1.31 (1.01-1.70) for PA sufficiency, 0.66 (0.54-0.80) and 1.08 (0.88-1.32) for higher PF, and 0.70 (0.58-0.85) and 1.27 (1.03-1.56) for better MH, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Exercising alone and with others were better than no exercise for maintaining better PA, PF, and MH in both sexes. Although exercise arrangement had little effect on maintaining PF, exercising with others appears to enhance PA levels and MH in both sexes.

Physical, social, and psychological characteristics of community-dwelling elderly Japanese dog and cat owners.

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies examined the physical characteristics of older dog owners. However, associations of health-related factors with dog/cat ownership have not been comprehensively evaluated. This cross-sectional study examined physical function, physical activity, social function, and psychological function of a population of community-dwelling older Japanese dog and cat owners after controlling for important confounders. METHODS: The analysis included data from 11,233 community-dwelling adults aged 65 years or older (51.5% women; 52.3% aged 75-84), in Ota City, Tokyo, Japan. Pet ownership experience and pet species owned were determined by self-reported questionnaire, and current, past, and never dog/cat ownership was analyzed. RESULTS: Analysis of variables related to physical function and physical activity showed that motor fitness scale and walking activity were significantly associated with experience of dog ownership, after adjustment for important sociodemographic and health characteristics. Analysis of social function showed that interaction with neighbors, social isolation, and trust in neighbors were significantly associated with experience of dog ownership and cat ownership. CONCLUSIONS: As compared with respondents with no history of pet ownership, motor fitness and walking activity are greater for dog owners and social function is higher for dog and cat owners. Caring for a dog or cat might be an effective health promotion strategy to increase physical activity and facilitate social participation among older adults.