Estimated Population-Level Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Against All-Cause Pneumonia Mortality Among Unvaccinated in 5 Latin American Countries.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) provide strong direct protection in children, while limited data are available on their indirect effect on mortality among older age groups. This multicountry study aimed to assess the population-level impact of pediatric PCVs on all-cause pneumonia mortality among children ≥5 years of age, and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) cases in Chile. METHODS: Demographic and mortality data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico were collected considering the ≥ 5-year-old population, from 2000 to 2019, with 1 795 789 deaths due to all-cause pneumonia. IPD cases in Chile were also evaluated. Time series models were employed to evaluate changes in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the postvaccination period, with other causes of death used as synthetic controls for unrelated temporal trends. RESULTS: No significant change in death rates due to all-cause pneumonia was detected following PCV introduction among most age groups and countries. The proportion of IPD cases caused by vaccine serotypes decreased from 29% (2012) to 6% (2022) among people aged ≥65 years in Chile. DISCUSSION: While an effect of PCV against pneumonia deaths (a broad clinical definition that may not be specific enough to measure indirect effects) was not detected, evidence of indirect PCV impact was observed among vaccine-type-specific IPD cases.

Effectiveness of Pneumococcal Vaccines on Otitis Media in Children: A Systematic Review.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine the effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccines on otitis media (OM) and acute otitis media (AOM) in children. METHODS: We conducted a systematic search in databases PubMed (MEDLINE), Embase, Lilacs, and Web of Science. We included observational studies that evaluated any pneumococcal vaccine - including 7, 10, and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7, PCV10, and PCV13) and 23-valent polysaccharide vaccines (PPSV23) as the intervention, in children aged less than five years. RESULTS: Out of the 2112 screened studies, 48 observational studies complied with the eligibility criteria and therefore were included in this review. Of the included studies, 30 (63%) were before-after, eleven (23%) cohort, six (13%) time series, and one (2%) case-control study designs. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing OM or AOM varied by vaccine type. In children under 24 months VE ranged from 8% and 42.7% (PCV7), 5.6% to 84% (PCV10) and 2.2% to 68% (PCV13). In children aged less than 60 months, VE ranged between 13.2% and 39% for PCV7, 11% to 39% for PCV10 (only children under 48 months), and 39% to 41% (PCV13). CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate significant effect of pneumococcal vaccination in decreasing OM or AOM in children under five years old in several countries supporting the public health value of introducing PCVs in national immunization programs.

Accuracy of rapid point-of-care serological tests for leprosy diagnosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease, still endemic in many countries that may lead to neurological, ophthalmic, and motor sequelae if not treated early. Access to timely diagnosis and multidrug therapy (MDT) remains a crucial element in the World Health Organization's strategy to eliminate the disease as a public health problem. OBJECTIVES: This systematic review aims to evaluate the accuracy of rapid point-of-care (POC) tests for diagnosis of leprosy. METHODS: Searches were carried out in electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, CRD, Cochrane Library and LILACS) in April 2021 for patients with suspicion or confirmatory diagnostic of leprosy, classified in multibacillary (MB) or paucibacillary (PB) cases, performing rapid POC serological tests compared to clinical evaluation, smear microscopy and immunohistochemistry analysis. Methodological quality was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies tool (QUADAS-2). A meta-analysis was undertaken to generate pooled estimates of diagnostic parameters, presenting sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) values. The review protocol was registered at PROSPERO, CRD # 42014009658. FINDINGS: From 893 potentially relevant references, 12 articles were included reporting 16 diagnostic tests accuracy studies with 5395 individuals enrolled. Meta-analysis of NDO-LID and PGL-I tests data in MB patients showed sensitivity and specificity [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.83 (0.71-0.91), 0.91 (0.72-0.97); and 0.92 (0.86-0.96), 0.93 (0.78-0.98); respectively, with high heterogeneity among the studies. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: Our results can inform policymakers regarding the possibility of implementing accurate, rapid POC tests for leprosy in public health services, especially within primary health care.

Declines in Pneumonia Mortality Following the Introduction of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines in Latin American and Caribbean Countries.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are recommended for use in pediatric immunization programs worldwide. Few data are available on their effect against mortality. We present a multicountry evaluation of the population-level impact of PCVs against death due to pneumonia in children < 5 years of age. METHODS: We obtained national-level mortality data between 2000 and 2016 from 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, using the standardized protocol. Time series models were used to evaluate the decline in all-cause pneumonia deaths during the postvaccination period while controlling for unrelated temporal trends using control causes of death. RESULTS: The estimated declines in pneumonia mortality following the introduction of PCVs ranged from 11% to 35% among children aged 2-59 months in 5 countries: Colombia (24% [95% credible interval {CrI}, 3%-35%]), Ecuador (25% [95% CrI, 4%-41%]), Mexico (11% [95% CrI, 3%-18%]), Nicaragua (19% [95% CrI, 0-34%]), and Peru (35% [95% CrI, 20%-47%]). In Argentina, Brazil, and the Dominican Republic, the declines were not detected in the aggregated age group but were detected in certain age strata. In Guyana and Honduras, the estimates had large uncertainty, and no declines were detected. Across the 10 countries, most of which have low to moderate incidence of pneumonia mortality, PCVs have prevented nearly 4500 all-cause pneumonia deaths in children 2-59 months since introduction. CONCLUSIONS: Although the data quality was variable between countries, and the patterns varied across countries and age groups, the balance of evidence suggests that mortality due to all-cause pneumonia in children declined after PCV introduction. The impact could be greater in populations with a higher prevaccine burden of pneumonia.

Identification of Serologic Markers for School-Aged Children With Congenital Rubella Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) case identification is challenging in older children since laboratory markers of congenital rubella virus (RUBV) infection do not persist beyond age 12 months. METHODS: We enrolled children with CRS born between 1998 and 2003 and compared their immune responses to RUBV with those of their mothers and a group of similarly aged children without CRS. Demographic data and sera were collected. Sera were tested for anti-RUBV immunoglobulin G (IgG), IgG avidity, and IgG response to the 3 viral structural proteins (E1, E2, and C), reflected by immunoblot fluorescent signals. RESULTS: We enrolled 32 children with CRS, 31 mothers, and 62 children without CRS. The immunoblot signal strength to C and the ratio of the C signal to the RUBV-specific IgG concentration were higher (P < .029 for both) and the ratio of the E1 signal to the RUBV-specific IgG concentration lower (P = .001) in children with CRS, compared with their mothers. Compared with children without CRS, children with CRS had more RUBV-specific IgG (P < .001), a stronger C signal (P < .001), and a stronger E2 signal (P ≤ .001). Two classification rules for children with versus children without CRS gave 100% specificity with >65% sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS: This study was the first to establish classification rules for identifying CRS in school-aged children, using laboratory biomarkers. These biomarkers should allow improved burden of disease estimates and monitoring of CRS control programs.

Impact of Kasai portoenterostomy on liver transplantation outcomes: A retrospective cohort study of 347 children with biliary atresia.

Biliary atresia (BA) is the main diagnosis leading to liver transplantation (LT) in children. When diagnosed early in life, a Kasai portoenterostomy (Kasai-PE) can prevent or postpone LT. Instances of previous operations can result in difficulties during the LT. We hypothesized that a previous Kasai-PE could affect LT outcomes. A retrospective cohort study of 347 BA patients submitted to LT between 1995 and 2013 at Hospital Sírio-Libanês and A. C. Camargo Cancer Center was conducted. Patients were divided into those with a previous Kasai portoenterostomy early failure (K-EF), Kasai portoenterostomy late failure (K-LF), and those with no Kasai portoenterostomy (No-K). Primary outcomes were patient and graft survival. A total of 94 (27.1%) patients had a K-EF, 115 (33.1%) had a K-LF, and 138 (39.8%) had No-K before LT. Children in the K-LF group were older and had lower Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease (PELD) scores. Patients in both K-EF and K-LF groups had more post-LT biliary complications. After Cox-multivariate analysis adjusting for confounding factors to determine the influence of Kasai-PE on patient and graft survival, the K-LF group had an 84% less probability of dying and a 55% less chance to undergo retransplantation. The K-LF group had a protective effect on posttransplant patient and graft survival. When properly performed, the Kasai procedure can postpone LT and positively affect outcomes. Having a K-EF and having not performed a Kasai-PE had the same effect in patient and graft survival; however, a previous Kasai-PE can increase post-LT complications as biliary complications and bowel perforations.

Rubella virus genotype 1G and echovirus 9 as etiologic agents of exanthematous diseases in Brazil: insights from phylogenetic analysis.

The aim of the present study was to identify the rubella virus (RV) and enterovirus (EV) genotypes detected during the Epidemiological Surveillance on Exanthematic Febrile Diseases (VIGIFEX) study and to perform phylogenetic analysis. Ten RV- and four EV-positive oropharyngeal samples isolated from cell culture were subjected to RT-PCR and sequencing. Genotype 1G and echovirus 9 (E-9) was identified in RV- and EV-positive samples, respectively. The RV 1G genotype has been persisting in Brazil since 2000-2001. No evidence of E-9 being involved in exanthematic illness in Brazil has been reported previously. Differential laboratory diagnosis is essential for management of rash and fever disease.

Sepsis-related deaths in Brazil: an analysis of the national mortality registry from 2002 to 2010.

INTRODUCTION: Limited population-based epidemiologic information about sepsis' demography, including its mortality and temporal changes is available from developing countries. We investigated the epidemiology of sepsis deaths in Brazil using secondary data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. METHODS: Retrospective descriptive analysis of Brazilian multiple-cause-of-death data between 2002 and 2010, with sepsis-associated International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) code indicated as the cause of death. Population-based sepsis associated mortality rates and trends were estimated. Annual population-based mortality rates were calculated using age-stratified population estimates from the 2010 census provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics as denominators. RESULTS: The total number of annual deaths recorded in Brazil increased over the decade, from 982,294 deaths reported in 2002 to 1,133,761 deaths reported in 2010. The number of sepsis associated deaths also increased both in absolute numbers and proportions from 95,972 (9.77% of total deaths) in 2002 to 186,712 deaths (16.46%) in 2010. The age-adjusted rate of sepsis-associated mortality increased from 69.5 deaths per 100,000 to 97.8 deaths per 100,000 population from 2002 to 2010 (P < 0.001). Sepsis-associated mortality was higher in individuals older than 60 years of age as compared to subjects aged 0 to 20 years (adjusted rate ratio 15.7 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15.6 to 15.8)) and in male subjects (1.15 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.16)). CONCLUSIONS: Between 2002 and 2010 the contribution of sepsis to all cause mortality as reported in multiple-cause-of-death forms increased significantly in Brazil. Age-adjusted mortality rates by sepsis also increased in the last decade. Our results confirm the importance of sepsis as a significant healthcare issue in Brazil.

Estimated Deaths Averted in Adults by COVID-19 Vaccination in Select Latin American and Caribbean Countries.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on global health, with millions of lives lost worldwide. Vaccination has emerged as a crucial strategy in mitigating the impact of the disease. This study aims to estimate the number of deaths averted through vaccination in Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC) during the first year and a half of vaccination rollout (January 2021-May 2022). Methods: Publicly available data on COVID-19 deaths and vaccination rates were used to estimate the total number of deaths averted via vaccination in LAC. Using estimates for number of deaths, number of vaccinated, and vaccine effectiveness, a counterfactual estimated number of deaths observed without vaccination was calculated. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were obtained from published studies. The analysis focused on 17 countries in LAC and considered adults aged 18 years and older. Results: After accounting for underreporting, the analysis estimated that >1.49 million deaths were caused by COVID-19 in the selected countries during the study period. Without vaccination, the model estimated that between 2.10 and 4.11 million COVID-19 deaths would have occurred. Consequently, vaccination efforts resulted in ∼610 000 to 2.61 million deaths averted. Conclusions: This study represents the first large-scale, multicenter estimate of population-level vaccine impact on COVID-19 mortality in LAC. The findings underscore the substantial impact of timely and widespread vaccination in averting COVID-19 deaths. These results provide crucial support for vaccination programs aimed at combating epidemic infectious diseases in the region and future pandemics.

Maternal and perinatal health research during emerging and ongoing epidemic threats: a landscape analysis and expert consultation.

INTRODUCTION: Pregnant women and their offspring are often at increased direct and indirect risks of adverse outcomes during epidemics and pandemics. A coordinated research response is paramount to ensure that this group is offered at least the same level of disease prevention, diagnosis, and care as the general population. We conducted a landscape analysis and held expert consultations to identify research efforts relevant to pregnant women affected by disease outbreaks, highlight gaps and challenges, and propose solutions to addressing them in a coordinated manner. METHODS: Literature searches were conducted from 1 January 2015 to 22 March 2022 using Web of Science, Google Scholar and PubMed augmented by key informant interviews. Findings were reviewed and Quid analysis was performed to identify clusters and connectors across research networks followed by two expert consultations. These formed the basis for the development of an operational framework for maternal and perinatal research during epidemics. RESULTS: Ninety-four relevant research efforts were identified. Although well suited to generating epidemiological data, the entire infrastructure to support a robust research response remains insufficient, particularly for use of medical products in pregnancy. Limitations in global governance, coordination, funding and data-gathering systems have slowed down research responses. CONCLUSION: Leveraging current research efforts while engaging multinational and regional networks may be the most effective way to scale up maternal and perinatal research preparedness and response. The findings of this landscape analysis and proposed operational framework will pave the way for developing a roadmap to guide coordination efforts, facilitate collaboration and ultimately promote rapid access to countermeasures and clinical care for pregnant women and their offspring in future epidemics.

The Full Value of Vaccine Assessments Concept-Current Opportunities and Recommendations.

For vaccine development and adoption decisions, the 'Full Value of Vaccine Assessment' (FVVA) framework has been proposed by the WHO to expand the range of evidence available to support the prioritization of candidate vaccines for investment and eventual uptake by low- and middle-income countries. Recent applications of the FVVA framework have already shown benefits. Building on the success of these applications, we see important new opportunities to maximize the future utility of FVVAs to country and global stakeholders and provide a proof-of-concept for analyses in other areas of disease control and prevention. These opportunities include the following: (1) FVVA producers should aim to create evidence that explicitly meets the needs of multiple key FVVA consumers, (2) the WHO and other key stakeholders should develop standardized methodologies for FVVAs, as well as guidance for how different stakeholders can explicitly reflect their values within the FVVA framework, and (3) the WHO should convene experts to further develop and prioritize the research agenda for outcomes and benefits relevant to the FVVA and elucidate methodological approaches and opportunities for standardization not only for less well-established benefits, but also for any relevant research gaps. We encourage FVVA stakeholders to engage with these opportunities.

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in Latin America, 2021: a multicenter regional case-control study.

Background: As of September 2022, nearly 1.3 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine products have been administered in Latin America and the Caribbean, where 27% of global COVID-19 deaths have occurred. This study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against lab-confirmed COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths among adults in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. Methods: Using a test-negative case control design, we evaluated the effectiveness of a primary vaccination series considering six COVID-19 vaccine products (Sputnik V, mRNA-1273, CoronaVac, ChAdOx1, BNT162b2, Ad26.COV2.S) against lab-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths among 83,708 hospitalized adults from February-December, 2021. Data from hospitalization records, COVID surveillance, and vaccination registries were used. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated using logistic regression ((1-OR) x 100). Findings: The average age of participants was 56.7 (SD = 17.5), and 45,894 (54.8%) were male. Adjusted VE (aVE) estimates for full vaccination against hospitalization were 82% for mRNA-1273 (95% confidence interval (CI) = -30 to 98%), 76% (71%-81%) for BNT162b2, 65% (61-68%) for ChAdOx1, 57% (10-79%) for Sputnik V, 53% (50-56%) for CoronaVac, and 46% (23-62%) for Ad26.COV2.S. Estimates, particularly for CoronaVac, varied by variant. Decreasing aVE was estimated as age increased, particularly for CoronaVac and ChAdOx1. aVE estimates against death were generally higher, with 100% (CI not estimated) for mRNA-1273, 82% (69-90%) for BNT162b2, 73% (69-77%) for ChAdOx1, 65% (60-67%) for CoronaVac, 38% (-75 to 78%) for Sputnik V, 6% (-58 to 44%) for Ad26.COV2.S. Interpretation: Primary series vaccination with available COVID-19 vaccine products was effective against COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality. Effectiveness varied by product and declined with increasing age. Funding: This study was funded by the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO, World Health Organization (WHO)). PAHO convened and led the study implementation.

Historical analysis of birth cohorts not vaccinated against rubella prior to national rubella vaccination campaign, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Brazil conducted mass rubella vaccination campaigns to meet disease elimination goals by 2010. An analysis of rubella vaccination opportunities was conducted to target population groups with concentrations of unvaccinated individuals. METHODS: Rubella vaccination strategies for all 27 states were reviewed between 1992 and 2006. Yearly vaccination coverage was calculated by dividing number of doses of measles-rubella or measles-mumps-rubella vaccines administered by census estimates of target populations. For annual birth cohorts (1967-2005), percentages of persons not vaccinated prior to 2007 were estimated by subtracting the highest coverage obtained in any vaccination strategy (routine or campaign) from 100%. Cohort analysis results were compared with rubella incidence by population group. RESULTS: An estimated 28.9 million males and 7.7 million females aged 2-40 years in 2007 remained unvaccinated against rubella, corresponding to 43.0% of males and 11.5% of females of these ages in Brazil. The highest percentages of unvaccinated birth cohorts (93.6%-98.1%) were identified among males aged 26-40 years. In rubella outbreaks reported during 2007, the highest disease incidence (22 cases per 100000 population) occurred among males aged 20-29 years. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of rubella vaccination opportunities identified concentrations of unvaccinated adults and adolescents for targeting mass vaccination to eliminate rubella and congenital rubella syndrome in Brazil.

Etiologies of rash and fever illnesses in Campinas, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Few population-based studies of infectious etiologies of fever-rash illnesses have been conducted. This study reports on enhanced febrile-rash illness surveillance in Campinas, Brazil, a setting of low measles and rubella virus transmission. METHODS: Cases of febrile-rash illnesses in individuals aged <40 years that occurred during the period 1 May 2003-30 May 2004 were reported. Blood samples were collected for laboratory diagnostic confirmation, which included testing for adenovirus, dengue virus, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), enterovirus, human herpes virus 6 (HHV6), measles virus, parvovirus-B19, Rickettsia rickettsii, rubella virus, and group A streptococci (GAS) infections. Notification rates were compared with the prestudy period. RESULTS: A total of 1248 cases were notified, of which 519 (42%) had laboratory diagnosis. Of these, HHV-6 (312 cases), EBV (66 cases), parvovirus (30 cases), rubella virus (30 cases), and GAS (30 cases) were the most frequent causes of infection. Only 10 rubella cases met the rubella clinical case definition currently in use. Notification rates were higher during the study than in the prestudy period (181 vs 52.3 cases per 100,000 population aged <40 years). CONCLUSIONS: Stimulating a passive surveillance system enhanced its sensitivity and resulted in additional rubella cases detected. In settings with rubella elimination goals, rubella testing may be considered for all cases of febrile-rash illness, regardless of suspected clinical diagnosis.

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the 27 Brazilian states.

BACKGROUND: Despite substantial evidence on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), there is still limited evidence on the individual effects of different types of NPIs on social distancing, especially in low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: We used panel data analysis to evaluate the effects of mandatory social distancing rules on social distancing. We obtained data on six different categories of mandatory restrictions implemented in Brazil, by date and state, from state government gazettes (diários oficiais). We then defined a social distancing rules index (SDI) to measure the strictness of social distancing rules, assigning each a value of 2, 1, or 0 depending on whether restrictions were full, partial, or very limited/non-existent at every given time. A separate variable was defined for masking mandates. We tested whether the following variables were associated to social distancing: SDI, masking mandates, COVID-19 incidence, population socioeconomic status, and political orientation. Data is for each day between March 11th and November 10th, 2020 in the 27 Brazilian states (N = 6615). FINDINGS: Social distancing increased when social distancing rules were stricter, and decreased when the use of face masks became mandatory. The effects of different types of restrictions varied: suspending in-person classes and gatherings, religious/sport/cultural activities had a greater effect than other types of restrictions. Also, the effect of social distancing rules on people's behaviour decreased over time, especially when rules were stricter. INTERPRETATION: Mandatory social distancing rules must be adopted to increase social distancing. Stricter rules have a higher impact, but result in decreased compliance over time. Policymakers should prioritize more targeted policies.

Effect Of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions On COVID-19 Cases And Deaths In Brazil.

Lacking national direction, in 2020 Brazilian states adopted a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions to combat COVID-19, adjusting their stringency over time. We took advantage of this variation across states and over time to estimate the independent effect of seven interventions on the growth rate ratios of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Panel regressions using daily data from March to December 2020 for twelve states show that two interventions, suspension of public events and masking mandates, significantly reduced the spread of the disease. Partial and full suspension of public events were equally effective. Full masking mandates were more effective than partial ones. Together, suspension of public events and full masking mandates reduced the growth rate ratios of both cases and deaths almost to 1, the point at which cases and deaths are no longer increasing. Policy makers may find this analysis useful as they aim to choose the most effective nonpharmaceutical interventions to reduce COVID-19's social and economic burdens.

Cost-effectiveness of sick leave policies for health care workers with influenza-like illness, Brazil, 2009.

We describe the effect of influenza-like illness (ILI) during the outbreak of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on health care worker (HCW) absenteeism and compare the effectiveness and cost of 2 sick leave policies for HCWs with suspected influenza. We assessed initial 2-day sick leaves plus reassessment until the HCW was asymptomatic (2-day + reassessment policy), and initial 7-day sick leaves (7-day policy). Sick leaves peaked in August 2009: 3% of the workforce received leave for ILI. Costs during May-October reached R$798,051.87 (≈US $443,362). The 7-day policy led to a higher monthly rate of sick leave days per 100 HCWs than did the 2-day + reassessment policy (8.72 vs. 3.47 days/100 HCWs; p<0.0001) and resulted in higher costs (US $609 vs. US $1,128 per HCW on leave). ILI affected HCW absenteeism. The 7-day policy was more costly and not more effective in preventing transmission to patients than the 2-day + reassessment policy.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis immunization in low- and middle-income countries: A review of lessons learnt.

This issue of Vaccine is devoted to papers from a research project that developed two types of simulation models, static and dynamic transmission, to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of maternal immunization to prevent pertussis in infants in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The research was conducted by a multinational team of investigators and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to gain an understanding of when and where maternal immunization might be a good public health investment for LMICs. Here we review the project's central lessons for vaccine policy and research. Models require a lot of data. As most LMICs lack good data, the models were built using pertussis disease burden data from Brazil, a middle-income country with three long-established, independent information systems (disease surveillance, hospitalization, and mortality), on the hypothesis that the disease process is similar across countries. Values for key parameters, particularly infant mortality, infant vaccine coverage, and costs of vaccination and treatment, were then varied to represent other LMICs. The results show that coverage levels of infant whole cell pertussis (wP) vaccine are key to the cost-effectiveness of maternal pertussis immunization. In settings where infant wP coverage is below the threshold thought necessary to eliminate pertussis in the population, 90-95%, maternal immunization is cost-effective, even cost-saving. By contrast, it is very expensive in countries capable of maintaining infant vaccination in or above the threshold range. The research also suggests that, while static models may serve to explore an intervention's cost-effectiveness initially, dynamic transmission models are essential for more accurate estimates. These findings can help guide policies toward maternal pertussis immunization, but also show that developing better data on neonatal pertussis mortality burden and infant vaccine coverage in LMICs, and on the duration of immunity of currently available pertussis vaccines, are key priorities to support better vaccine policy.

Implementation and results of a gastrointestinal cancer screening program in an Amazon rainforest village: A descriptive study.

Background and study aims Gastrointestinal cancer is an important cause of death worldwide. Remote populations are especially vulnerable to these conditions due to reduced access to screening and adequate treatment. In this context, the Belterra project was designed as a pilot taskforce to deliver gastrointestinal screening to an underserved Amazonian population and to spread knowledge and practice to local health workers. This study aimed to describe the implementation and present the results of the Belterra Project. Patients and methods The project took place between October 2014 and December 2017 in Belterra, Pará, Brazil. Public-private partnerships were obtained and were essential for funding. The project required complex logistic solutions to provide gastrointestinal screening to every inhabitant between 50 and 70 years of age, including medical equipment and personal transportation to a remote area. Subjects were asked about their medical history, and received a physical examination, endoscopic examinations, and stool tests. Results Over the course of 19 expeditions, we screened 2,022 inhabitants of Belterra, aged 50 to 70 years. Five colorectal and six gastric adenocarcinomas were diagnosed, as were several lower-stage lesions. Overall, 26 % of the participants undergoing colonoscopy showed some type of colonic lesion. Conclusions Notwithstanding the geographical, cultural, and financial barriers, this study suggests that the implementation of a gastrointestinal cancer screening program for remote Brazilian populations is feasible, reaching high adherence. Although logistics is very demanding, such campaigns may be a good strategy to provide mass gastrointestinal cancer screening for underserved populations.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of maternal acellular pertussis immunization (aP) in different socioeconomic settings: A dynamic transmission model of pertussis in three Brazilian states.

OBJECTIVES: Using dynamic transmission models we evaluated the health and cost outcomes of adding acellular pertussis (aP) vaccination of pregnant women to infant vaccination in three Brazilian states that represent different socioeconomic conditions. The primary objective was to determine whether the same model structure could be used to represent pertussis disease dynamics in differing socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: We tested three model structures (SIR, SIRS, SIRSIs) to represent population-level transmission in three socio-demographically distinct Brazilian states: São Paulo, Paraná and Bahia. Two strategies were evaluated: infant wP vaccination alone versus maternal aP immunization plus infant wP vaccination. Model projections for 2014-2029 include outpatient and inpatient pertussis cases, pertussis deaths, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost, and costs (in 2014 USD) of maternal aP vaccination, infant vaccination, and pertussis medical treatment. Incremental cost per DALY averted is presented from the perspective of the Brazilian National Health System. RESULTS: Based on goodness-of-fit statistics, the SIRSIs model fit best, although it had only a modest improvement in statistical quantitative assessments relative to the SIRS model. For all three Brazilian states, maternal aP immunization led to higher costs but also saved infant lives and averted DALYs. The 2014 USD cost/DALY averted was $3068 in Sao Paulo, $2962 in Parana, and $2022 in Bahia. These results were robust in sensitivity analyses with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios exceeding per capita gross regional product only when the probability that a pertussis case is reported was assumed higher than base case implying more overt cases and deaths and therefore more medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: The same model structure fit all three states best, supporting the idea that the disease behaves similarly across different socioeconomic conditions. We also found that immunization of pregnant women with aP is cost-effective in diverse Brazilian states.