Artificial Neural Networks, Sequence-to-Sequence LSTMs, and Exogenous Variables as Analytical Tools for NO2 (Air Pollution) Forecasting: A Case Study in the Bay of Algeciras (Spain).

This study aims to produce accurate predictions of the NO2 concentrations at a specific station of a monitoring network located in the Bay of Algeciras (Spain). Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) were used to create the forecasting models. Additionally, a new prediction method was proposed combining LSTMs using a rolling window scheme with a cross-validation procedure for time series (LSTM-CVT). Two different strategies were followed regarding the input variables: using NO2 from the station or employing NO2 and other pollutants data from any station of the network plus meteorological variables. The ANN and LSTM-CVT exogenous models used lagged datasets of different window sizes. Several feature ranking methods were used to select the top lagged variables and include them in the final exogenous datasets. Prediction horizons of t + 1, t + 4 and t + 8 were employed. The exogenous variables inclusion enhanced the model's performance, especially for t + 4 (ρ ≈ 0.68 to ρ ≈ 0.74) and t + 8 (ρ ≈ 0.59 to ρ ≈ 0.66). The proposed LSTM-CVT method delivered promising results as the best performing models per prediction horizon employed this new methodology. Additionally, per each parameter combination, it obtained lower error values than ANNs in 85% of the cases.

IgG glycan patterns are associated with type 2 diabetes in independent European populations.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes results from interplay between genetic and acquired factors. Glycans on proteins reflect genetic, metabolic and environmental factors. However, associations of IgG glycans with type 2 diabetes have not been described. We compared IgG N-glycan patterns in type 2 diabetes with healthy subjects. METHODS: In the DiaGene study, a population-based case-control study, (1886 cases and 854 controls) 58 IgG glycan traits were analyzed. Findings were replicated in the population-based CROATIA-Korcula-CROATIA-Vis-ORCADES studies (162 cases and 3162 controls), and meta-analyzed. AUCs of ROC-curves were calculated using 10-fold cross-validation for clinical characteristics, IgG glycans and their combination. RESULTS: After correction for extensive clinical covariates, 5 IgG glycans and 13 derived traits significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in meta-analysis (after Bonferroni correction). Adding IgG glycans to age and sex increased the AUC from 0.542 to 0.734. Adding them to the extensive model did not substantially improve the AUC. The AUC for IgG glycans alone was 0.729. CONCLUSIONS: Several IgG glycans and traits firmly associate with type 2 diabetes, reflecting a pro-inflammatory and biologically-aged state. IgG glycans showed limited improvement of AUCs. However, IgG glycans showed good prediction alone, indicating they may capture information of combined covariates. The associations found may yield insights in type 2 diabetes pathophysiology. GENERAL SIGNIFICANCE: This work shows that IgG glycomic changes have biomarker potential and may yield important insights into pathophysiology of complex public health diseases, illustrated here for the first time in type 2 diabetes.

Application of genetic algorithms and constructive neural networks for the analysis of microarray cancer data.

BACKGROUND: Extracting relevant information from microarray data is a very complex task due to the characteristics of the data sets, as they comprise a large number of features while few samples are generally available. In this sense, feature selection is a very important aspect of the analysis helping in the tasks of identifying relevant genes and also for maximizing predictive information. METHODS: Due to its simplicity and speed, Stepwise Forward Selection (SFS) is a widely used feature selection technique. In this work, we carry a comparative study of SFS and Genetic Algorithms (GA) as general frameworks for the analysis of microarray data with the aim of identifying group of genes with high predictive capability and biological relevance. Six standard and machine learning-based techniques (Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), C-MANTEC Constructive Neural Network, K-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and Multilayer perceptron (MLP)) are used within both frameworks using six free-public datasets for the task of predicting cancer outcome. RESULTS: Better cancer outcome prediction results were obtained using the GA framework noting that this approach, in comparison to the SFS one, leads to a larger selection set, uses a large number of comparison between genetic profiles and thus it is computationally more intensive. Also the GA framework permitted to obtain a set of genes that can be considered to be more biologically relevant. Regarding the different classifiers used standard feedforward neural networks (MLP), LDA and SVM lead to similar and best results, while C-MANTEC and k-NN followed closely but with a lower accuracy. Further, C-MANTEC, MLP and LDA permitted to obtain a more limited set of genes in comparison to SVM, NB and kNN, and in particular C-MANTEC resulted in the most robust classifier in terms of changes in the parameter settings. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that if prediction accuracy is the objective, the GA-based approach lead to better results respect to the SFS approach, independently of the classifier used. Regarding classifiers, even if C-MANTEC did not achieve the best overall results, the performance was competitive with a very robust behaviour in terms of the parameters of the algorithm, and thus it can be considered as a candidate technique for future studies.

BLASSO: integration of biological knowledge into a regularized linear model.

BACKGROUND: In RNA-Seq gene expression analysis, a genetic signature or biomarker is defined as a subset of genes that is probably involved in a given complex human trait and usually provide predictive capabilities for that trait. The discovery of new genetic signatures is challenging, as it entails the analysis of complex-nature information encoded at gene level. Moreover, biomarkers selection becomes unstable, since high correlation among the thousands of genes included in each sample usually exists, thus obtaining very low overlapping rates between the genetic signatures proposed by different authors. In this sense, this paper proposes BLASSO, a simple and highly interpretable linear model with l1-regularization that incorporates prior biological knowledge to the prediction of breast cancer outcomes. Two different approaches to integrate biological knowledge in BLASSO, Gene-specific and Gene-disease, are proposed to test their predictive performance and biomarker stability on a public RNA-Seq gene expression dataset for breast cancer. The relevance of the genetic signature for the model is inspected by a functional analysis. RESULTS: BLASSO has been compared with a baseline LASSO model. Using 10-fold cross-validation with 100 repetitions for models' assessment, average AUC values of 0.7 and 0.69 were obtained for the Gene-specific and the Gene-disease approaches, respectively. These efficacy rates outperform the average AUC of 0.65 obtained with the LASSO. With respect to the stability of the genetic signatures found, BLASSO outperformed the baseline model in terms of the robustness index (RI). The Gene-specific approach gave RI of 0.15±0.03, compared to RI of 0.09±0.03 given by LASSO, thus being 66% times more robust. The functional analysis performed to the genetic signature obtained with the Gene-disease approach showed a significant presence of genes related with cancer, as well as one gene (IFNK) and one pseudogene (PCNAP1) which a priori had not been described to be related with cancer. CONCLUSIONS: BLASSO has been shown as a good choice both in terms of predictive efficacy and biomarker stability, when compared to other similar approaches. Further functional analyses of the genetic signatures obtained with BLASSO has not only revealed genes with important roles in cancer, but also genes that should play an unknown or collateral role in the studied disease.

Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science.

One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets.