Public perceptions of federal science advisory boards depend on their composition.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Science Advisory Board (SAB) provides expert advice to inform agency decision-making. Recent regulations have decreased the representation of academic scientists on the EPA SAB and increased the representation of industry scientists. In an experiment, we asked how the US public views the goals and legitimacy of the board as a function of its composition. Respondents perceived SABs with a majority of industry scientists to be more likely to promote business interests than SABs with a majority of academic scientists. Liberals were less likely than conservatives to perceive industry-majority SABs as promoting human health and the environment, and making unbiased and evidence-based decisions. Our findings underscore the potential for politicization of scientific advice to the government.

Farmer willingness to implement constructed wetlands in the Western Lake Erie Basin.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) remain a persistent issue that threatens both the physical and economic health of the Western Lake Erie basin (WLEB). Edge-of-field conservation practices are recommended to help manage agricultural runoff and reach phosphorus reduction targets in freshwater systems like the Great Lakes (in the USA). Constructed wetlands (CWs) are a specific edge-of-field practice that could prove critical to these efforts. While we know less about why wetlands are installed or implemented than many other private lands conservation practices, prior research does indicate that offsetting the costs of land taken out of production, or targeting land that is not suitable for production will be critical. Our research builds on these findings by assessing how the perceived productivity of the land moderates the relationship between other potential motivating factors and willingness to install wetlands. We also assess how these critical motivations may vary by the conservation-mindedness of the farmer. Our results indicate that the decision to install a constructed wetland is not entirely dependent on the productivity of the land. Associated beneficial functions (e.g., aesthetics, hunting opportunities) positively influence willingness, even on productive land for those farmers who value conservation. We suggest that program providers emphasize the diverse benefits of constructed wetlands, and target farmers who exhibit stronger conservation identities as they may be more likely to consider wetlands regardless of the productivity of their land.

Understanding farmers' conservation behavior over time: A longitudinal application of the transtheoretical model of behavior change.

Global waterbodies are experiencing increased risk of eutrophication and harmful algal blooms due to excess nutrients including phosphorus and nitrogen discharged from human activity on the landscape and as a result of climate change. Despite modeling that suggests the efficacy of best management practices in agricultural systems to be sufficient to address the problem, adoption by farmers remains far below the levels needed to achieve significant water quality improvements and new approaches to encourage and sustain adoption are urgently needed. In this work, we apply a modified transtheoretical model (TTM) of behavior change to a longitudinal dataset (N = 584) of farmers' adoption decisions and stated intentions to use cover crops, collected in the Maumee Basin of Lake Erie, USA in 2016 and 2018. The TTM posits that behavior changes over time and is influenced by different social-psychological processes at each stage of change. Our findings confirm past research into the importance of many of the factors investigated, while providing new insight into their role in specific stages of the change process with potential implications for the design of interventions for farmers in different stages. Several factors investigated (mean environmental concern, education, information from conservation groups and off-farm income) were uniquely important to a particular stage. Other factors (response efficacy at the field level, total farm size and risks of spring planting interference) were important at both an earlier and later stage, but less important in predicting middle stages of change. A third set of factors (self-efficacy, proportion rented, no-till adoption and uncertain long-term paybacks) were statistically important across each stage of the TTM model. In applying the TTM longitudinally, we found evidence that farmers in a more advanced stage of cover crop adoption, in the first wave of data collection (2016) were more likely to have adopted cover crops in the second wave (2018), a result not predicted by individual factors alone. We report findings for cover crops but see the potential for the transtheoretical model of behavior change to be applied to other best management practice adoption decisions and to diverse populations of farmers to generate similarly novel insight and utility for intervention design and targeting.

Private land conservation decision-making: An integrative social science model.

Owners and managers of private lands make decisions that have implications well beyond the boundaries of their land, influencing species conservation, water quality, wildfire risk, and other environmental outcomes with important societal and ecological consequences. Understanding how these decisions are made is key for informing interventions to support better outcomes. However, explanations of the drivers of decision making are often siloed in social science disciplines that differ in focus, theory, methodology, and terminology, hindering holistic understanding. To address these challenges, we propose a conceptual model of private land conservation decision-making that integrates theoretical perspectives from three dominant disciplines: economics, sociology, and psychology. The model highlights how heterogeneity in behavior across decision-makers is driven by interactions between the decision context, attributes of potential conservation behaviors, and attributes of the decision-maker. These differences in both individual attributes and context shape decision-makers' constraints and the potential and perceived consequences of a behavior. The model also captures how perceived consequences are evaluated and weighted through a decision-making process that may range from systematic to heuristic, ultimately resulting in selection of a behavior. Outcomes of private land behaviors across the landscape feed back to alter the socio-environmental conditions that shape future decisions. The conceptual model is designed to facilitate better communication, collaboration, and integration across disciplines and points to methodological innovations that can expand understanding of private land decision-making. The model also can be used to illuminate how behavior change interventions (e.g., policies, regulations, technical assistance) could be designed to target different drivers to encourage environmentally and socially beneficial behaviors on private lands.

Moving beyond panaceas in fisheries governance.

In fisheries management-as in environmental governance more generally-regulatory arrangements that are thought to be helpful in some contexts frequently become panaceas or, in other words, simple formulaic policy prescriptions believed to solve a given problem in a wide range of contexts, regardless of their actual consequences. When this happens, management is likely to fail, and negative side effects are common. We focus on the case of individual transferable quotas to explore the panacea mindset, a set of factors that promote the spread and persistence of panaceas. These include conceptual narratives that make easy answers like panaceas seem plausible, power disconnects that create vested interests in panaceas, and heuristics and biases that prevent people from accurately assessing panaceas. Analysts have suggested many approaches to avoiding panaceas, but most fail to conquer the underlying panacea mindset. Here, we suggest the codevelopment of an institutional diagnostics toolkit to distill the vast amount of information on fisheries governance into an easily accessible, open, on-line database of checklists, case studies, and related resources. Toolkits like this could be used in many governance settings to challenge users' understandings of a policy's impacts and help them develop solutions better tailored to their particular context. They would not replace the more comprehensive approaches found in the literature but would rather be an intermediate step away from the problem of panaceas.

A Yardstick for Danger: Developing a Flexible and Sensitive Measure of Risk Perception.

While individual perceptions of risk are central to many behavioral theories of hazard response and are of considerable interest in both conceptual and applied work surrounding risk, hazards, and decision making, there is currently no consensus on how perceived risk should best be measured. Several recent efforts have laid the groundwork for a conceptual model outlining four key factors that make up risk perception: exposure, susceptibility, severity, and affective response. In this article, we use an extensive scale-development process to develop empirically supported 3-4 item subscales to measure each of those four dimensions. Using cognitive interviewing techniques and several quantitative psychometric methods including exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis and item-response theory analyses, we reduce a large set of potential items to the highest-quality items to assess each subscale. These subscales can be used to make comparisons across perceived risk in different hazard contexts and populations.

Assessing the Accuracy of Farmers' Nutrient Loss Risk Perceptions.

Use of nutrient management practices to reduce nutrient loss from agriculture and its associated water quality consequences, including hypoxia and eutrophication, is widely encouraged. However, little is known about which factors influence farmers' risk perceptions associated with nutrient loss, and thus possibly influence their decisions to adopt such practices. To determine which factors were associated with relative "accuracy" of nutrient loss-associated risk perceptions, specific farm field management information was used as inputs to a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model of the study watershed to produce water quality outputs for each modeled farm field. This information was paired with farmers' risk perceptions associated with nutrient loss on their farm to assess relative "accuracy" of each farmer's perceptions compared to the rest of the farmers in the study. We then investigated characteristics of the farm and farmer that are associated with comparative "overprediction" and "underprediction" of risk, and found that characteristics of the individual (conservation identity, prior conservation practice adoption, efficacy beliefs, and perceived seriousness of the consequences of nutrient loss) are more important in determining whether farmers are likely to "overpredict" or "underpredict" risk than is the objective (modeled) vulnerability of their land to nutrient loss.

Monitoring of heavy metal pollution in urban and rural environments across Pakistan using House crows (Corvus splendens) as bioindicator.

A widely distributed urban bird, the house crow (Corvus splendens), was used to assess bioavailable heavy metals in urban and rural environments across Pakistan. Bioaccumulation of arsenic (As), zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), chromium (Cr), and copper (Cu) was investigated in wing feathers of 96 crows collected from eight locations and categorized into four groups pertaining to their geographical and environmental similarities. Results revealed that the concentrations of Pb, Ni, Mn, Cu, and Cr were positively correlated and varied significantly among the four groups. Zn, Fe, Cr, and Cu regarded as industrial outputs, were observed in birds both in industrialized cities and in adjoining rural agricultural areas irrigated through the Indus Basin Irrigation System. Birds in both urban regions accrued Pb more than the metal toxicity thresholds for birds. The house crow was ranked in the middle on the metal accumulation levels in feathers between highly accumulating raptor and piscivore and less contaminated insectivore and granivore species in the studied areas,. This study suggests that the house crow is an efficient bioindicator and supports the feasibility of using feathers to discriminate the local pollution differences among terrestrial environments having different levels and kinds of anthropogenic activities.

Industry-Dominated Science Advisory Boards Are Perceived To Be Legitimate But Only When They Recommend More Stringent Risk Management Policies.

In 2017, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was criticized for two controversial directives that restricted the eligibility of academic scientists to serve on the agency's key science advisory boards (SABs). The EPA portrayed these directives as necessary to ensure the integrity of the SAB. Critics portrayed them as a tactic by the agency to advance a more industry-friendly deregulatory agenda. With this backdrop, this research examined board composition and its effect on the perceived legitimacy of risk management recommendations by the SAB. In an experiment, we presented participants with hypothetical EPA SABs composed of different proportions of academic and industry scientists. We then asked participants to rate their satisfaction with, and the legitimacy of, these boards in light of their decisions in scenarios based on actual EPA SAB deliberations. Participants perceived higher levels of satisfaction and legitimacy when SABs made more stringent risk management recommendations. While SABs dominated by industry scientists were perceived to be more strongly motivated to protect business interests, we found no effect of board composition on perceptions of satisfaction and legitimacy. These results are consistent with prior research on decision quality that suggests people use normative outcomes as a heuristic for assessing the quality of deliberations. Moreover, these results suggest that members of the public are supportive of federal SABs regardless of their composition, but only if they take actions that are consistent with normative expectations.

Developing a Broadly Applicable Measure of Risk Perception.

Decades of research identify risk perception as a largely intuitive and affective construct, in contrast to the more deliberative assessments of probability and consequences that form the foundation of risk assessment. However, a review of the literature reveals that many of the risk perception measures employed in survey research with human subjects are either generic in nature, not capturing any particular affective, probabilistic, or consequential dimension of risk; or focused solely on judgments of probability. The goal of this research was to assess a multidimensional measure of risk perception across multiple hazards to identify a measure that will be broadly useful for assessing perceived risk moving forward. Our results support the idea of risk perception being multidimensional, but largely a function of individual affective reactions to the hazard. We also find that our measure of risk perception holds across multiple types of hazards, ranging from those that are behavioral in nature (e.g., health and safety behaviors), to those that are technological (e.g., pollution), or natural (e.g., extreme weather). We suggest that a general, unidimensional measure of risk may accurately capture one's perception of the severity of the consequences, and the discrete emotions that are felt in response to those potential consequences. However, such a measure is not likely to capture the perceived probability of experiencing the outcomes, nor will it be as useful at understanding one's motivation to take mitigation action.

Will Millennials save the world? The effect of age and generational differences on environmental concern.

Are younger people, defined by age, or younger generations, defined by cohort-level measures, more concerned about declines in environmental health when compared to their older counterparts within the United States? Related, are these same people more willing to support policy actions aimed at preventing future losses when compared to older adults? In spite of reporting by the U.S. popular press about the heightened environmental consciousness of Millennials, prior research offers conflicting answers. Scholarship focusing on age effects suggests that the answer to both questions is yes due to the dampening of environmental concern and action in older adults. More recent applied research on climate related risks and risk management options, by contrast, suggest that the answer to both questions is no, and that there is no difference in climate concern and risk mitigation between younger and older adults. In an attempt to disentangle these contradictory viewpoints, we undertook a study in which respondents in the United States characterized by age and generational cohort were presented with small and large hypothetical losses due to climate change. These same participants were then asked to indicate their support for future policy actions aimed at stemming these environmental losses. Overall, our data does not indicate that younger generations experience potential losses as more acute than older generations; neither age nor generational cohort correlated with the perceived severity of environmental losses nor support for future actions to prevent them. More robust predictors of both dependent variables were environmental value orientations (biospherism) and self-reported political orientation.

Population mitogenomics provides insights into evolutionary history, source of invasions and diversifying selection in the House Crow (Corvus splendens).

The House Crow (Corvus splendens) is a useful study system for investigating the genetic basis of adaptations underpinning successful range expansion. The species originates from the Indian subcontinent, but has successfully spread through a variety of thermal environments across Asia, Africa and Europe. Here, population mitogenomics was used to investigate the colonisation history and to test for signals of molecular selection on the mitochondrial genome. We sequenced the mitogenomes of 89 House Crows spanning four native and five invasive populations. A Bayesian dated phylogeny, based on the 13 mitochondrial protein-coding genes, supports a mid-Pleistocene (~630,000 years ago) divergence between the most distant genetic lineages. Phylogeographic patterns suggest that northern South Asia is the likely centre of origin for the species. Codon-based analyses of selection and assessments of changes in amino acid properties provide evidence of positive selection on the ND2 and ND5 genes against a background of purifying selection across the mitogenome. Protein homology modelling suggests that four amino acid substitutions inferred to be under positive selection may modulate coupling efficiency and proton translocation mediated by OXPHOS complex I. The identified substitutions are found within native House Crow lineages and ecological niche modelling predicts suitable climatic areas for the establishment of crow populations within the invasive range. Mitogenomic patterns in the invasive range of the species are more strongly associated with introduction history than climate. We speculate that invasions of the House Crow have been facilitated by standing genetic variation that accumulated due to diversifying selection within the native range.

Should I Stay or Should I Go Now? Or Should I Wait and See? Influences on Wildfire Evacuation Decisions.

As climate change has contributed to longer fire seasons and populations living in fire-prone ecosystems increase, wildfires have begun to affect a growing number of people. As a result, interest in understanding the wildfire evacuation decision process has increased. Of particular interest is understanding why some people leave early, some choose to stay and defend their homes, and others wait to assess conditions before making a final decision. Individuals who tend to wait and see are of particular concern given the dangers of late evacuation. To understand what factors might influence different decisions, we surveyed homeowners in three areas in the United States that recently experienced a wildfire. The Protective Action Decision Model was used to identify a suite of factors previously identified as potentially relevant to evacuation decisions. Our results indicate that different beliefs about the efficacy of a particular response or action (evacuating or staying to defend), differences in risk attitudes, and emphasis on different cues to act (e.g., official warnings, environmental cues) are key factors underlying different responses. Further, latent class analysis indicates there are two general classes of individuals: those inclined to evacuate and those inclined to stay, and that a substantial portion of each class falls into the wait and see category.

Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species.

Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long-lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts' judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts' judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts' assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers' assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts' decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species.

Evaluating Public and Regulatory Acceptance for Urban Soil Management Approaches.

Regulators ( = 14) and the public ( = 30) were surveyed to compare how they perceived contaminated soil management strategies, including bioavailability assessments, using a mental models approach. Both groups proposed similar soil contamination definitions and agreed laboratory tests were needed to identify contaminants. When responding to open-ended questions about management options, regulators emphasized the risk assessment process, whereas the public noted specific treatment options. The majority of the public (68%) and regulators (86%) were concerned about particular contaminants. The public emphasized general contaminant categories, such as petroleum products and chemicals. Regulators listed specific compounds, including arsenic and dioxin. Both groups mentioned lead. Public and regulators had similar levels of agreement for soil removal ( = 0.96) and allowing soils with low bioavailability to remain in place ( = 0.66). The public were most opposed (43% disagree or strongly disagree) to using soil capping. Both groups were willing to consider using bioavailability assessments for contaminated soils. All regulators had heard of bioavailability, whereas 21 of the 24 (88%) public had not heard of this concept. Across all soil management options, the public tended to have higher rates of strongly disagree/disagree and neutral responses compared with regulators ( = 0.01). The neutral responses may indicate public ambivalence or insufficient information to respond about treatment options. Communication and public education efforts should emphasize the analytical process used to justify site-specific treatments. Additional surveys should evaluate public and regulator definitions of successful soil management and contaminant remediation in specific situations (i.e., case studies with specific contaminants and receptors of interest).

Faecal haemoglobin and faecal calprotectin as indicators of bowel disease in patients presenting to primary care with bowel symptoms.

OBJECTIVE: In primary care, assessing which patients with bowel symptoms harbour significant disease (cancer, higher-risk adenoma or IBD) is difficult. We studied the diagnostic accuracies of faecal haemoglobin (FHb) and faecal calprotectin (FC) in a cohort of symptomatic patients. DESIGN: From October 2013 to March 2014, general practitioners were prompted to request FHb and FC when referring patients with bowel symptoms to secondary care. Faecal samples were analysed for haemoglobin (EIKEN OC-Sensor io) and calprotectin (BÜHLMANN Calprotectin ELISA). Patients triaged to endoscopy were investigated within 6 weeks. All clinicians and endoscopists were blind to the faecal test results. The diagnostic accuracies of FHb and FC for identification of significant bowel disease were assessed. RESULTS: 1043 patients returned samples. FHb was detectable in 57.6% (median 0.4 µg/g, 95% CI 0.4 to 0.8; range 0-200). FC at 50 µg/g or above was present in 60.0%. 755 patients (54.6% women, median age 64 years (range 16-90, IQR 52-73)) returned samples and completed colonic investigations. 103 patients had significant bowel disease; the negative predictive values of FHb for colorectal cancer, higher-risk adenoma and IBD were 100%, 97.8% and 98.4%, respectively. Using cut-offs of detectable FHb and/or 200 µg/g FC detected two further cases of IBD, one higher-risk adenoma and no additional cancers. CONCLUSIONS: In primary care, undetectable FHb is a good 'rule-out' test for significant bowel disease and could guide who requires investigation.

A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems.

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers' actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.

Physiological and muscle histochemical assessment of men and women 10 km runners matched for race performance or training volume.

Women have a disadvantage for performance in long-distance running compared with men. To elaborate on inherent characteristics, 12 subelite women were matched with 12 men for training volume (M-Tm) (56.6 ± 18 vs. 55.7 ± 17 km/wk). The women were also matched to other men for a 10 km staged outdoor time trial (M-Pm) (42:36 min:s) to determine which factors could explain equal running performance. Anthropometry and treadmill tests were done. Fiber type (% Type I and Type IIA) and citrate synthase activities were analyzed in muscle biopsy samples. Consistent sex differences for both comparisons included height, weight, % body fat (P < 0.01), and hematocrit (P < 0.05). Women had lower V̇o2max and peak treadmill speed (PTS) compared with both M-Tm and M-Pm (P < 0.01). Training matched pairs had no sex difference in % PTS at race pace but compared with M-Pm women ran at a higher % PTS (P < 0.05) and %HRmax (P < 0.01) at race pace. On average, the women trained 22.9 km/wk more than M-Pm (+67.5%, P < 0.01). This training was not associated with higher V̇o2max or better running economy. Muscle morphology and oxidative capacity did not differ between groups. Percentage body fat remained significantly higher in women. In conclusion, women matched to men for training volume had slower 10 km performance (-10.5% P < 0.05). Higher training volume, more high-intensity sessions/wk, and time spent training in the 95%-100% HRmax zone may explain the higher % PTS and %HRmax at race pace in women compared with performance-matched men.NEW & NOTEWORTHY When subelite women 10 km runners were matched with male counterparts for 10 km race performance, inherent differences in % body fat, V̇o2max, Hct, and peak treadmill speed were counteracted by significantly higher training volume, more time training at higher %HRmax and consequently, higher %HRmax and %PTS at race pace. Citrate synthase activity and muscle fiber types did not differ. When women and men matched for training, 10 km performance of men was 10.5% faster.

Application and modification of the integrative model for environmental health.

The Integrative Model for Environmental Health (IMEH) has guided research, literature reviews, and practice initiatives since 2002. This article presents the Modified IMEH that was developed based on using the IMEH as a guiding conceptual framework in a community-based participatory research environmental health project. Concepts from the Model of Risk Information Seeking and Processing as well as emergent themes from the data analysis were instrumental in this process. The Modified IMEH alters the structure of the IMEH in that the Vulnerability and Epistemological Domains are more prominent and feedback between domains is included.

Encouragement from the right source: Evaluating the impact of the 4R Nutrient Stewardship Certification Program in the Ohio Western Lake Erie Basin.

Harmful algal blooms are a considerable environmental issue predominantly caused by runoff of nutrients from agricultural lands. One high-profile set of practices promoted to combat this threat is the 4Rs of nutrient stewardship that concern using the right source of nutrients at the right rate and right time in the right place. While outreach for agricultural conservation is often undertaken by governmental or nonprofit entities, there is increasing interest in engaging agricultural retailers to leverage the trust that already exists between farmers and their agribusiness professionals. The 4R Nutrient Stewardship Certification Program, implemented in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB) in 2014, certifies crop advising companies and agronomy retailers or Nutrient Service Providers (NSPs) to promote best practices in nutrient management. This program has since grown and now exists in six US states and the province of Ontario and Prince Edward Island in Canada. Using a survey of farmers in the WLEB, we investigate the impact of working with certified NSPs over time on farmers' reported 4R-related behaviors. We find evidence that working with a certified NSP has a positive impact on 4R behaviors that is independent of other potential explanations for this change (e.g., farmer concern about nutrient loss, local regulatory efforts, and exposure to general 4R-related outreach). Overall, these results suggest that the 4R Nutrient Stewardship Certification Program is having an independent, positive impact on farmer behavior, and engaging with agricultural retailers and agronomists can be effective at advancing adoption of environmentally impactful nutrient management practices.