Clinical and Adverse Outcomes Associated With Concomitant Use of CYP2D6-Metabolized Opioids With Antidepressants in Older Nursing Home Residents : A Target Trial Emulation Study.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence exists on the safety of pharmacokinetic interactions of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2D6 (CYP2D6)-metabolized opioids with antidepressants among older nursing home (NH) residents. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations of concomitant use of CYP2D6-metabolized opioids and antidepressants with clinical outcomes and opioid-related adverse events (ORAEs). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study using a target trial emulation framework. SETTING: 100% Medicare NH sample linked to Minimum Data Set (MDS) from 2010 to 2021. PARTICIPANTS: Long-term residents aged 65 years and older receiving CYP2D6-metabolized opioids with a disease indication for antidepressant use. INTERVENTION: Initiating CYP2D6-inhibiting versus CYP2D6-neutral antidepressants that overlapped with use of CYP2D6-metabolized opioids for 1 day or more. MEASUREMENTS: Clinical outcomes were worsening pain, physical function, and depression from baseline to quarterly MDS assessments and were analyzed using modified Poisson regression models. The ORAE outcomes included counts of pain-related hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits, opioid use disorder (OUD), and opioid overdose and were analyzed with negative binomial or Poisson regression models. All models were adjusted for baseline covariates via inverse probability of treatment weighting. RESULTS: Among 29 435 identified residents, use of CYP2D6-metabolized opioids concomitantly with CYP2D6-inhibiting (vs. CYP2D6-neutral) antidepressants was associated with a higher adjusted rate ratio of worsening pain (1.13 [95% CI, 1.09 to 1.17]) and higher adjusted incidence rate ratios of pain-related hospitalization (1.37 [CI, 1.19 to 1.59]), pain-related ED visit (1.49 [CI, 1.24 to 1.80]), and OUD (1.93 [CI, 1.37 to 2.73]), with no difference in physical function, depression, and opioid overdose. LIMITATION: Findings are generalizable to NH populations only. CONCLUSION: Use of CYP2D6-metabolized opioids concomitantly with CYP2D6-inhibiting (vs. CYP2D6-neutral) antidepressants was associated with worsening pain and increased risk for most assessed ORAEs among older NH residents. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute on Aging.

Development and Validation of an Algorithm to Predict Stillbirth Gestational Age in Medicaid Billing Records.

INTRODUCTION: With Medicaid covering half of US pregnancies, Medicaid Analytic eXtract (MAX) provides a valuable data source to enrich understanding about stillbirth etiologies. OBJECTIVE: We developed and validated a claims-based algorithm to predict GA at stillbirth. METHOD: We linked the stillbirths identified in MAX 1999-2013 to Florida Fetal Death Records (FDRs) to obtain clinical estimates of GA (N=825). We tested several algorithms including using a fixed median GA, median GA at the time of specific prenatal screening tests, and expanded versions considering additional predictors of stillbirth within including linear regression and random forest models. We estimated the proportion of pregnancies with differences of ± 1, 2, 3 and 4 weeks between the predicted and FDR GA and the model mean square error (MSE). We validated the selected algorithms in two external samples. RESULTS: The best performing algorithm was a random forest model (MSE of 12.67 weeks2) with 84% of GAs within ± 4 weeks. Assigning a fixed GA of 28 weeks resulted in an MSE of 60.21 weeks2 and proportions of GA within ± 4 weeks of 32%. We observed consistent results in the external samples. DISCUSSION: Our prediction algorithm for stillbirths can facilitate pregnancy research in the Medicaid population.

Triple challenges - Small sample size in both exposure and control groups to scan rare maternal outcomes in a signal identification approach: A simulation study.

There is a dearth of safety data on maternal outcomes after perinatal medication exposure. Data-mining for unexpected adverse event occurrence in existing datasets is a potentially useful approach. One method, the Poisson tree-based scan statistic (TBSS), assumes that the expected outcome counts, based on incidence of outcomes in the control group, are estimated without error. This assumption may be difficult to satisfy with a small control group. Our simulation study evaluated the effect of imprecise incidence proportions from the control group on TBSS' ability to identify maternal outcomes in pregnancy research. We simulated base case analyses with "true" expected incidence proportions and compared these to imprecise incidence proportions derived from sparse control samples. We varied parameters impacting Type I error and statistical power (exposure group size, outcome's incidence proportion, and effect size). We found that imprecise incidence proportions generated by a small control group resulted in inaccurate alerting, inflation of Type I error, and removal of very rare outcomes for TBSS analysis due to "zero" background counts. Ideally, the control size should be at least several times larger than the exposure size to limit the number of false positive alerts and retain statistical power for true alerts.

Cannabis Use and Inhalational Anesthesia Administration in Older Adults: A Propensity Matched Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Cannabis use is associated with higher intravenous anesthetic administration. Similar data regarding inhalational anesthetics are limited. With rising cannabis use prevalence, understanding any potential relationship with inhalational anesthetic dosing is crucial. We compared average intraoperative isoflurane/sevoflurane minimum alveolar concentration equivalents between older adults with and without cannabis use. METHODS: The electronic health records of 22,476 surgical patients ≥65 years old at the University of Florida Health System between 2018-2020 were reviewed. The primary exposure was cannabis use within 60 days of surgery, determined via i) a previously published natural language processing algorithm applied to unstructured notes and ii) structured data, including International Classification of Disease codes for cannabis use disorders and poisoning by cannabis, laboratory cannabinoids screening results, and RxNorm codes. The primary outcome was the intraoperative time-weighted average of isoflurane/sevoflurane minimum alveolar concentration equivalents at one-minute resolution. No a priori minimally clinically important difference was established. Patients demonstrating cannabis use were matched 4:1 to non-cannabis use controls using a propensity score. RESULTS: Among 5,118 meeting inclusion criteria, 1,340 patients (268 cannabis users and 1,072 nonusers) remained after propensity score matching. The median and interquartile range (IQR) age was 69 (67, 73) years; 872 (65.0%) were male, and 1,143 (85.3%) were non-Hispanic White. The median (IQR) anesthesia duration was 175 (118, 268) minutes. After matching, all baseline characteristics were well-balanced by exposure. Cannabis users had statistically significantly higher average minimum alveolar concentrations than nonusers [mean±SD: 0.58±0.23 versus 0.54±0.22, respectively; mean difference=0.04; 95% confidence limits, 0.01 to 0.06; p=0.020]. CONCLUSION: Cannabis use was associated with administering statistically significantly higher inhalational anesthetic minimum alveolar concentration equivalents in older adults, but the clinical significance of this difference is unclear. These data do not support the hypothesis that cannabis users require clinically meaningfully higher inhalational anesthetics doses.

Model correction of diagnostic coding-based RSV incidence for children 0-4 years in the US.

BACKGROUND: Although administrative claims data have a high degree of completeness, not all medically attended Respiratory Syncytial Virus-associated lower respiratory tract infections (RSV-LRTIs) are tested or coded for their causative agent. We sought to determine the attribution of RSV to LRTI in claims data via modeling of temporal changes in LRTI rates against surveillance data. METHODS: We estimated the weekly incidence of LRTI (inpatient, outpatient, and total) for children 0-4 years using 2011-2019 commercial insurance claims, stratified by HHS region, matched to the corresponding weekly NREVSS RSV and influenza positivity data for each region, and modelled against RSV, influenza positivity rates, and harmonic functions of time assuming negative binomial distribution. LRTI events attributable to RSV were estimated as predicted events from the full model minus predicted events with RSV positivity rate set to 0. RESULTS: Approximately 42% of predicted RSV cases were coded in claims data. Across all regions, the percentage of LRTI attributable to RSV were 15-43%, 10-31%, and 10-31% of inpatient, outpatient, and combined settings, respectively. However, when compared to coded inpatient RSV-LRTI, 9 of 10 regions had improbable corrected inpatient LRTI estimates (predicted RSV/coded RSV ratio < 1). Sensitivity analysis based on separate models for PCR and antigen-based positivity showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Underestimation based on coding in claims data may be addressed by NREVSS-based adjustment of claims-based RSV incidence. However, where setting-specific positivity rates is unavailable, we recommend modeling across settings to mirror NREVSS's positivity rates which are similarly aggregated, to avoid inaccurate adjustments.

Core concepts in pharmacoepidemiology: Measurement of medication exposure in routinely collected healthcare data for causal inference studies in pharmacoepidemiology.

BACKGROUND: Observational designs can complement evidence from randomized controlled trials not only in situations when randomization is not feasible, but also by evaluating drug effects in real-world, considering a broader spectrum of users and clinical scenarios. However, use of such real-world scenarios captured in routinely collected clinical or administrative data also comes with specific challenges. Unlike in trials, medication use is not protocol based. Instead, exposure is determined by a multitude of factors involving patients, providers, healthcare access, and other policies. Accurate measurement of medication exposure relies on a similar broad set of factors which, if not understood and appropriately addressed, can lead to exposure misclassification and bias. AIM: To describe core considerations for measurement of medication exposure in routinely collected healthcare data. METHODS: We describe the strengths and weaknesses of the two main types of routinely collected healthcare data (electronic health records and administrative claims) used in pharmacoepidemiologic research. We introduce key elements in those data sources and issues in the curation process that should be considered when developing exposure definitions. We present challenges in exposure measurement such as the appropriate determination of exposure time windows or the delineation of concomitant medication use versus switching of therapy, and related implications for bias. RESULTS: We note that true exposure patterns are typically unknown when using routinely collected healthcare data and that an in-depth understanding of healthcare delivery, patient and provider decision-making, data documentation and governance, as well as pharmacology are needed to ensure unbiased approaches to measuring exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Various assumptions are made with the goal that the chosen exposure definition can approximate true exposure. However, the possibility of exposure misclassification remains, and sensitivity analyses that can test the impact of such assumptions on the robustness of estimated medication effects are necessary to support causal inferences.

Updated core competencies in pharmacoepidemiology to inform contemporary curricula and training for academia, government, and industry.

PURPOSE: The first paper to specify the core content of pharmacoepidemiology as a profession was published by an ISPE (International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology) workgroup in 2012 (Jones JK et al. PDS 2012; 21[7]:677-689). Due to the broader and evolving scope of pharmacoepidemiology, ISPE considers it important to proactively identify, update and expand the list of core competencies to inform curricula of education programs; thus, better positioning pharmacoepidemiologists across academic, government (including regulatory), and industry positions. The aim of this project was to update the list of core competencies in pharmacoepidemiology. METHODS: To ensure applicability of findings to multiple areas, a working group was established consisting of ISPE members with positions in academia, industry, government, and other settings. All competencies outlined by Jones et al. were extracted from the initial manuscript and presented to the working group for review. Expert-based judgments were collated and used to identify consensus. It was noted that some competencies could contribute to multiple groups and could be directly or indirectly related to a group. RESULTS: Five core domains were proposed: (1) Epidemiology, (2) Clinical Pharmacology, (3) Regulatory Science, (4) Statistics and data science, and (5) Communication and other professional skills. In total, 55 individual competencies were proposed, of which 25 were new competencies. No competencies from the original work were dropped but aggregation or amendments were made where considered necessary. CONCLUSIONS: While many core competencies in pharmacoepidemiology have remained the same over the past 10 years, there have also been several updates to reflect new and emerging concepts in the field.

Short- and long-term safety of discontinuing chronic opioid therapy among older adults with Alzheimer's disease and related dementia.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence exists on the short- and long-term safety of discontinuing versus continuing chronic opioid therapy (COT) among patients with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). METHODS: This cohort study was conducted among 162,677 older residents with ADRD and receipt of COT using a 100% Medicare nursing home sample. Discontinuation of COT was defined as no opioid refills for ≥90 days. Primary outcomes were rates of pain-related hospitalisation, pain-related emergency department visit, injury, opioid use disorder (OUD) and opioid overdose (OD) measured by diagnosis codes at quarterly intervals during 1- and 2-year follow-ups. Poisson regression models were fit using generalised estimating equations with inverse probability of treatment weights to model quarterly outcome rates between residents who discontinued versus continued COT. RESULTS: The study sample consisted of 218,040 resident episodes with COT; of these episodes, 180,916 residents (83%) continued COT, whereas 37,124 residents (17%) subsequently discontinued COT. Discontinuing (vs. continuing) COT was associated with higher rates of all outcomes in the first quarter, but these associations attenuated over time. The adjusted rates of injury, OUD and OD were 0, 69 and 60% lower at the 1-year follow-up and 11, 81 and 79% lower at the 2-year follow-up, respectively, for residents who discontinued versus continued COT, with no difference in the adjusted rates of pain-related hospitalisations or emergency department visits. CONCLUSIONS: The rates of adverse outcomes were higher in the first quarter but lower or non-differential at 1-year and 2-year follow-ups between COT discontinuers versus continuers among older residents with ADRD.

Assessment of the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for Phentermine-Topiramate to Prevent Exposure During Pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved phentermine-topiramate for obesity in 2012 and required a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) to prevent prenatal exposure. No such requirement was introduced for topiramate. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the rate of prenatal exposure, contraceptive use, and pregnancy testing among patients with phentermine-topiramate compared with topiramate or other antiobesity medications (AOMs). DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Nationwide health insurance claims database. PARTICIPANTS: Females aged 12 to 55 years with no infertility diagnosis or sterilization procedure. Patients with other indications for topiramate were excluded to identify a cohort that was likely treated for obesity. MEASUREMENTS: Patients initiated use of phentermine-topiramate, topiramate, or an AOM (liraglutide, lorcaserin, or bupropion-naltrexone). Pregnancy at treatment initiation, conception during treatment, contraceptive use, and pregnancy testing outcomes were ascertained. Measurable confounders were adjusted for, and extensive sensitivity analyses were done. RESULTS: A total of 156 280 treatment episodes were observed. Adjusted prevalence of pregnancy at treatment initiation was 0.9 versus 1.6 per 1000 episodes (prevalence ratio, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.31 to 0.95]) for phentermine-topiramate versus topiramate. The incidence rate of conception during treatment was 9.1 versus 15.0 per 1000 person-years (rate ratio, 0.61 [CI, 0.40 to 0.91]) for phentermine-topiramate versus topiramate. Both outcomes were similarly lower for phentermine-topiramate compared with AOM. Prenatal exposure was marginally lower in topiramate users compared with AOM users. Approximately 20% of patients in all cohorts had at least 50% of treatment days covered by contraceptives. Few patients had pregnancy tests before treatment (≤5%), but this was more common among phentermine-topiramate users. LIMITATIONS: Outcome misclassification; unmeasured confounding due to lack of prescriber data to account for possible clustering and spillover effects. CONCLUSION: Prenatal exposure seemed to be significantly lower among phentermine-topiramate users under the REMS. Pregnancy testing and contraceptive use appeared to be inadequate for all groups, which deserves attention to prevent the remaining potential exposures. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Pain intensity, physical function, and depressive symptoms associated with discontinuing long-term opioid therapy in older adults with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.

INTRODUCTION: Limited evidence exists on the associations of discontinuing versus continuing long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) with pain intensity, physical function, and depression among patients with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). METHODS: A cohort study among 138,059 older residents with mild-to-moderate ADRD and receipt of LTOT was conducted using a 100% Medicare nursing home sample. Discontinuation of LTOT was defined as no opioid refills for ≥ 60 days. Outcomes were worsening pain, physical function, and depression from baseline to quarterly assessments during 1- and 2-year follow-ups. RESULTS: The adjusted odds of worsening pain and depressive symptoms were 29% and 5% lower at the 1-year follow-up and 35% and 9% lower at the 2-year follow-up for residents who discontinued versus continued LTOT, with no difference in physical function. DISCUSSION: Discontinuing LTOT was associated with lower short- and long-term worsening pain and depressive symptoms than continuing LTOT among older residents with ADRD. HIGHLIGHTS: Discontinuing long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) was associated with lower short- and long-term worsening pain. Discontinuing LTOT was related to lower short- and long-term worsening depression. Discontinuing LTOT was not associated with short- and long-term physical function.

Quinolone Ear Drops and Achilles Tendon Rupture.

BACKGROUND: Delayed eardrum healing has been observed in the ear opposite to the ear treated with otic quinolones (OQ) in rats. Case reports describe tendinopathies after OQ treatment, suggesting adverse systemic effects. METHODS: We studied patients aged 19 to 64 years with diagnosis of otitis externa or media in private insurance between 2005 and 2015. We compared OQ treatment against otic neomycin, oral amoxicillin, or azithromycin. Outcomes included Achilles tendon rupture (ATR), Achilles tendinitis (AT), and all-type tendon rupture (ATTR). We applied an active comparator, new-user design with 1-year look-back and ceased follow-up at initiation of systemic steroids or oral quinolones, external injury, hospitalization, and after 35 days. We used trimmed stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights to balance comparison groups in a survival framework. Negative outcomes (clavicle fractures or sports injuries) were examined to rule out differences from varied physical activity (unmeasured confounding). RESULTS: We examined 1 501 009 treated otitis episodes. Hazard ratios (HR) for OQ exposure associated with ATR were 4.49 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.83-11.02), AT 1.04 (95% CI, 0.73-1.50), and ATTR 1.71 (95% CI, 1.21-2.41). Weighted risk differences (RD) per 100 000 episodes for OQ exposure were ATR 7.80 (95% CI, 0.72-14.89), AT 1.01 (95% CI, -12.80 to 14.81), and ATTR 18.57 (95% CI, 3.60-33.53). Corresponding HRs for clavicle fractures and sports injuries were HR,1.71 (95% CI, 0.55-5.27) and HR,1.45 (95% CI, 0.64-3.30), suggesting limited residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: OQ exposure may lead to systemic consequences. Clinicians should consider this potential risk and counsel patients accordingly. Risk factors and mechanisms for this rare, adverse effect deserve further evaluation. Mechanistic and other clinical studies are warranted to corroborate this finding.

Development and Validation of Algorithms to Estimate Live Birth Gestational Age in Medicaid Analytic eXtract Data.

BACKGROUND: While healthcare utilization data are useful for postmarketing surveillance of drug safety in pregnancy, the start of pregnancy and gestational age at birth are often incompletely recorded or missing. Our objective was to develop and validate a claims-based live birth gestational age algorithm. METHODS: Using the Medicaid Analytic eXtract (MAX) linked to birth certificates in three states, we developed four candidate algorithms based on: preterm codes; preterm or postterm codes; timing of prenatal care; and prediction models - using conventional regression and machine-learning approaches with a broad range of prespecified and empirically selected predictors. We assessed algorithm performance based on mean squared error (MSE) and proportion of pregnancies with estimated gestational age within 1 and 2 weeks of the gold standard, defined as the clinical or obstetric estimate of gestation on the birth certificate. We validated the best-performing algorithms against medical records in a nationwide sample. We quantified misclassification of select drug exposure scenarios due to estimated gestational age as positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, and specificity. RESULTS: Among 114,117 eligible pregnancies, the random forest model with all predictors emerged as the best performing algorithm: MSE 1.5; 84.8% within 1 week and 96.3% within 2 weeks, with similar performance in the nationwide validation cohort. For all exposure scenarios, PPVs were >93.8%, sensitivities >94.3%, and specificities >99.4%. CONCLUSIONS: We developed a highly accurate algorithm for estimating gestational age among live births in the nationwide MAX data, further supporting the value of these data for drug safety surveillance in pregnancy. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B989 .

Risk of fetal or neonatal death or neonatal intensive care unit admission associated with gadolinium magnetic resonance imaging exposure during pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Concerns have been raised about prenatal exposure to magnetic resonance imaging with gadolinium-based contrast agents because of nonclinical findings of gadolinium retention in fetal tissue and 1 population-based study reporting an association with adverse pregnancy outcomes. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the association between prenatal magnetic resonance imaging exposure with and without gadolinium-based contrast agents and fetal and neonatal death and neonatal intensive care unit admission. STUDY DESIGN: We constructed a retrospective cohort of >11 million Medicaid-covered pregnancies between 1999 and 2014 to evaluate the association between prenatal magnetic resonance imaging exposure with and without gadolinium-based contrast agents and fetal and neonatal death (primary endpoint) and neonatal intensive care unit admissions (secondary endpoint). Medicaid claims data were linked to medical records, Florida birth and fetal death records, and the National Death Index to validate the outcomes and gestational age estimates. Pregnancies with multiples, concurrent cancer, teratogenic drug exposure, magnetic resonance imaging focused on fetal or pelvic evaluation, undetermined gadolinium-based contrast agent use, or those preceded by or contemporaneous with congenital anomaly diagnoses were excluded. We adjusted for potential confounders with standardized mortality ratio weighting using propensity scores. RESULTS: Among 5991 qualifying pregnancies, we found 11 fetal or neonatal deaths in the gadolinium-based contrast agent magnetic resonance imaging group (1.4%) and 73 in the non-gadolinium-based contrast agent magnetic resonance imaging group (1.4%) with an adjusted relative risk of 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.34-1.55); the neonatal intensive care unit admission adjusted relative risk was 1.03 (0.76-1.39). Sensitivity analyses investigating the timing of magnetic resonance imaging or repeat magnetic resonance imaging exposure during pregnancy and simulating the impact of exposure misclassification corroborated these results. CONCLUSION: This study addressed the safety concerns related to prenatal exposure to gadolinium-based contrast agents used in magnetic resonance imaging and the risk thereof on fetal and neonatal death or the need for neonatal intensive care unit admission. Although the results on fatal or severe acute effects are reassuring, the impact on subacute outcomes was not evaluated.

Concordance of neonatal critical condition data between secondary databases: Florida and Texas birth certificate Linkage with medicaid analytic extract.

BACKGROUND: Limited information is available about neonates' critical conditions data quality. The study aim was to measure the agreement regarding presence of neonatal critical conditions between Medicaid Analytic eXtract claims data and Birth Certificate (BC) records. METHODS: Claims data files of neonates born between 1999-2010 and their mothers were linked to birth certificates in the states of Texas and Florida. In claims data, neonatal critical conditions were identified using medical encounter claims records within the first 30 days postpartum, while in birth certificates, the conditions were identified based on predetermined variables. We calculated the prevalence of cases within each data source that were identified by its comparator, in addition to calculating overall agreement and kappa statistics. RESULTS: The sample included 558,224 and 981,120 neonates in Florida and Texas, respectively. Kappa values show poor agreement (< 20%) for all critical conditions except neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission, which showed moderate (> 50%) and substantial (> 60%) agreement in Florida and Texas, respectively. claims data resulted in higher prevalences and capture of a larger proportion of cases than the BC, except for assisted ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: Claims data and BC showed low agreement on neonatal critical conditions except for NICU admission. Each data source identified cases most of which the comparator failed to capture, with higher prevalences estimated within claims data except for assisted ventilation.

Trajectories of prescription opioid dose and risk of opioid-related adverse events among older Medicare beneficiaries in the United States: A nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the rising number of older adults with medical encounters for opioid misuse, dependence, and poisoning, little is known about patterns of prescription opioid dose and their association with risk for opioid-related adverse events (ORAEs) in older patients. The study aims to compare trajectories of prescribed opioid doses in 6 months preceding an incident ORAE for cases and a matched control group of older patients with chronic noncancer pain (CNCP). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a nested case-control study within a cohort of older (≥65 years) patients diagnosed with CNCP who were new users of prescription opioids, assembled using a 5% national random sample of Medicare beneficiaries from 2011 to 2018. From the cohort with a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, we identified 3,103 incident ORAE cases with ≥1 opioid prescription in 6 months preceding the event, and 3,103 controls matched on sex, age, and time since opioid initiation. Key exposure was trajectories of prescribed opioid morphine milligram equivalent (MME) daily dosage over 6 months before the incident ORAE or matched controls. Among the cases and controls, 2,192 (70.6%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 77.1 (7.1) years. Four prescribed opioid trajectories before the incident ORAE diagnosis or matched date emerged: gradual dose discontinuation (from ≤3 to 0 daily MME, 1,456 [23.5%]), gradual dose increase (from 0 to >3 daily MME, 1,878 [30.3%]), consistent low dose (between 3 and 5 daily MME, 1,510 [24.3%]), and consistent moderate dose (>20 daily MME, 1,362 [22.0%]). Few older patients (<5%) were prescribed a mean daily dose of ≥90 daily MME during 6 months before diagnosis or matched date. Patients with gradual dose discontinuation versus those with a consistent low dose, moderate dose, and increase dose were more likely to be younger (65 to 74 years), Midwest US residents, and receiving no low-income subsidy. Compared to patients with gradual dose discontinuation, those with gradual dose increase (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.8 to 4.0; P < 0.001), consistent low dose (aOR = 3.8; 95% CI 3.2 to 4.6; P < 0.001), and consistent moderate dose (aOR = 8.5; 95% CI 6.8 to 10.7; P < 0.001) had a higher risk of ORAE, after adjustment for covariates. Our main findings remained robust in the sensitivity analysis using a cohort study with inverse probability of treatment weighting analyses. Major limitations include the limited generalizability of the study findings and lack of information on illicit opioid use, which prevents understanding the clinical dose threshold level that increases the risk of ORAE in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of older patients who are Medicare beneficiaries, 4 prescription opioid dose trajectories were identified, with most prescribed doses below 90 daily MME within 6 months before ORAE or matched date. An increased risk for ORAE was observed among older patients with a gradual increase in dose or among those with a consistent low-to-moderate dose of prescribed opioids when compared to patients with opioid dose discontinuation. Whether older patients are susceptible to low opioid doses warrants further investigations.

Concurrent use of prescription gabapentinoids with opioids and risk for fall-related injury among older US Medicare beneficiaries with chronic noncancer pain: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Gabapentinoids are increasingly prescribed to manage chronic noncancer pain (CNCP) in older adults. When used concurrently with opioids, gabapentinoids may potentiate central nervous system (CNS) depression and increase the risks for fall. We aimed to investigate whether concurrent use of gabapentinoids with opioids compared with use of opioids alone is associated with an increased risk of fall-related injury among older adults with CNCP. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based cohort study using a 5% national sample of Medicare beneficiaries in the United States between 2011 and 2018. Study sample consisted of fee-for-service (FFS) beneficiaries aged ≥65 years with CNCP diagnosis who initiated opioids. We identified concurrent users with gabapentinoids and opioids days' supply overlapping for ≥1 day and designated first day of concurrency as the index date. We created 2 cohorts based on whether concurrent users initiated gabapentinoids on the day of opioid initiation (Cohort 1) or after opioid initiation (Cohort 2). Each concurrent user was matched to up to 4 opioid-only users on opioid initiation date and index date using risk set sampling. We followed patients from index date to first fall-related injury event ascertained using a validated claims-based algorithm, treatment discontinuation or switching, death, Medicare disenrollment, hospitalization or nursing home admission, or end of study, whichever occurred first. In each cohort, we used propensity score (PS) weighted Cox models to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of fall-related injury, adjusting for year of the index date, sociodemographics, types of chronic pain, comorbidities, frailty, polypharmacy, healthcare utilization, use of nonopioid medications, and opioid use on and before the index date. We identified 6,733 concurrent users and 27,092 matched opioid-only users in Cohort 1 and 5,709 concurrent users and 22,388 matched opioid-only users in Cohort 2. The incidence rate of fall-related injury was 24.5 per 100 person-years during follow-up (median, 9 days; interquartile range [IQR], 5 to 18 days) in Cohort 1 and was 18.0 per 100 person-years during follow-up (median, 9 days; IQR, 4 to 22 days) in Cohort 2. Concurrent users had similar risk of fall-related injury as opioid-only users in Cohort 1(aHR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.34, p = 0.874), but had higher risk for fall-related injury than opioid-only users in Cohort 2 (aHR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.44, p = 0.005). Limitations of this study included confounding due to unmeasured factors, unavailable information on gabapentinoids' indication, potential misclassification, and limited generalizability beyond older adults insured by Medicare FFS program. CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of older Medicare beneficiaries with CNCP, initiating gabapentinoids and opioids simultaneously compared with initiating opioids only was not significantly associated with risk for fall-related injury. However, addition of gabapentinoids to an existing opioid regimen was associated with increased risks for fall. Mechanisms for the observed excess risk, whether pharmacological or because of channeling of combination therapy to high-risk patients, require further investigation. Clinicians should consider the risk-benefit of combination therapy when prescribing gabapentinoids concurrently with opioids.

Association of injury after prescription opioid initiation with risk for opioid-related adverse events among older Medicare beneficiaries in the United States: A nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Injury, prevalent and potentially associated with prescription opioid use among older adults, has been implicated as a warning sign of serious opioid-related adverse events (ORAEs) including opioid misuse, dependence, and poisoning, but this association has not been empirically tested. The study aims to examine the association between incident injury after prescription opioid initiation and subsequent risk of ORAEs and to assess whether the association differs by recency of injury among older patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This nested case-control study was conducted within a cohort of 126,752 individuals aged 65 years or older selected from a 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries in the United States between 2011 and 2018. Cohort participants were newly prescribed opioid users with chronic noncancer pain who had no injury or ORAEs in the year before opioid initiation, had 30 days or more of observation, and had at least 1 additional opioid prescription dispensed during follow-up. We identified ORAE cases as patients who had an inpatient or outpatient encounter with diagnosis codes for opioid misuse, dependence, or poisoning. During a mean follow-up of 1.8 years, we identified 2,734 patients who were newly diagnosed with ORAEs and 10,936 controls matched on the year of cohort entry date and a disease risk score (DRS), a summary score derived from the probability of an ORAE outcome based on covariates measured prior to cohort entry and in the absence of injury. Multivariate conditional logistic regression was used to estimate ORAE risk associated with any and recency of injury, defined based on the primary diagnosis code of inpatient and outpatient encounters. Among the cases and controls, 68.0% (n = 1,859 for cases and n = 7,436 for controls) were women and the mean (SD) age was 74.5 (6.9) years. Overall, 54.0% (n = 1,475) of cases and 46.0% (n = 1,259) of controls experienced incident injury after opioid initiation. Patients with (versus without) injury after opioid therapy had higher risk of ORAEs after adjustment for time-varying confounders, including diagnosis of tobacco or alcohol use disorder, drug use disorder, chronic pain diagnosis, mental health disorder, pain-related comorbidities, frailty index, emergency department visit, skilled nursing facility stay, anticonvulsant use, and patterns of prescription opioid use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2 to 1.5; P < 0.001). Increased risk of ORAEs was associated with current (≤30 days) injury (aOR = 2.8; 95% CI 2.3 to 3.4; P < 0.001), whereas risk of ORAEs was not significantly associated with recent (31 to 90 days; aOR = 0.93; 95% CI 0.73 to 1.17; P = 0.48), past (91 to 180 days; aOR = 1.08; 95% CI 0.88 to 1.33; P = 0.51), and remote (181 to 365 days; aOR = 0.88; 95% CI 0.73 to 1.1; P = 0.18) injury preceding the incident diagnosis of ORAE or matched date. Patients with injury and prescription opioid use versus those with neither in the month before the ORAE or matched date were at greater risk of ORAEs (aOR = 5.0; 95% CI 4.1 to 6.1; P < 0.001). Major limitations are that the study findings can only be generalized to older Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries and that unknown or unmeasured confounders have the potential to bias the observed association toward or away from the null. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that incident diagnosis of injury following opioid initiation was associated with subsequent increased risk of ORAEs, and the risk was only significant among patients with injury in the month before the index date. Regular monitoring for injury may help identify older opioid users at high risk for ORAEs.

Prenatal exposure to teratogenic medications in the era of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of prenatal exposures to teratogenic drugs is a significant clinical and public health concern. With the enactment of the US Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act in 2007, the US Food and Drug Administration has begun to require manufacturers to implement Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies to prevent prenatal exposures. Among 12 risk evaluation and mitigation strategy drugs, several had predecessor risk mitigation plans (eg, isotretinoin) and some were newly required (eg, mycophenolate). Only a small proportion of teratogenic drugs are currently subject to Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies, and the extent of prenatal exposure to the universe of teratogenic drugs compared with drugs subject to Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies is unknown. Moreover, the effectiveness of such advanced risk mitigation programs in preventing prenatal exposure is not clear. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to characterize the epidemiology of prenatal exposures to definite and potential teratogens during the risk evaluation and mitigation strategy era. STUDY DESIGN: We constructed a time-series of pregnancies identified from a national private insurance claims database (IBM MarketScan) to estimate prenatal exposures to teratogenic drugs (2006-2017). Pregnancy outcomes, gestational age, and the onset of pregnancy were determined with previously validated algorithms. The Teratology Information Service and Clinical Pharmacology databases were used to identify drugs with definite (n=141) or potential (n=65) teratogenic effects, and drugs with debatable risks such as benzodiazepines, statins, tetracyclines, sex hormones, infertility treatments, and gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogs were excluded. We defined prenatal exposure as ≥1 prescription fill or medical encounter involving administration of drugs with a definite teratogenic risk (including 12 for which there is a "current or discontinued" risk evaluation and mitigation strategy) or a potential teratogenic risk. We evaluated secular trends and modeled the effects of age, preconception exposure, and state healthcare quality rankings on prenatal exposure, adjusting for demographic factors and clinical conditions. RESULTS: The cohort included 3,445,612 pregnancies (2,532,444 live deliveries). Prenatal exposures to definite teratogens decreased slightly during the study years from 1.86 to 1.24 per 100 pregnancies between 2006 and 2017, whereas exposure increased for potential teratogens from 3.40% to 5.33%. Prenatal exposure prevalences were higher during the first trimester and for pregnancies that ended in nonlive outcomes. Drugs subject to Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies had low background utilization and contributed to a small proportion of prenatal exposures (15.1 per 100,000 pregnancies). We also observed fewer prenatal exposures to risk evaluation and mitigation strategy drugs among women of childbearing age who used these treatments (0.14% vs 0.36% for any definite teratogen). Age extremes and low state-level healthcare quality rankings were independent predictors of prenatal exposure. CONCLUSION: Fetuses in more than 1 in 16 pregnancies continued to be exposed to teratogenic drugs during the past decade. Drugs with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies imposed a small burden of prenatal exposure because of the low background utilization rates and lower pregnancy prevalence among women of childbearing age who used these drugs. Although the declining exposure rates to teratogenic drugs with definite risk are encouraging, the rising prenatal exposure to drugs with potential risk calls for more assessments. Future research is needed to elucidate the health outcomes of fetuses exposed to potential risk drugs, understand the effectiveness of risk evaluation and mitigation strategy programs, and prioritize teratogenic drugs for advanced risk mitigation.

RSV testing practice and positivity by patient demographics in the United States: integrated analyses of MarketScan and NREVSS databases.

BACKGROUND: RSV-incidence estimates obtained from routinely-collected healthcare data (e.g., MarketScan) are commonly adjusted for under-reporting using test positivity reported in national Surveillance Systems (NREVSS). However, NREVSS lacks detail on patient-level characteristics and the validity of applying a single positivity estimate across diverse patient groups is uncertain. We aimed to describe testing practices and test positivity across subgroups of private health insurance enrollees in the US and illustrate the possible magnitude of misclassification when using NREVSS to correct for RSV under ascertainment. METHODS: Using billing records, we determined distributions of RSV-test claims and test positivity among a national sample of private insurance enrollees. Tests were considered positive if they coincided with an RSV-diagnosis. We illustrated the influence of positivity variation across sub-populations when accounting for untested acute respiratory infections. RESULTS: Most tests were for children (age 0-4: 65.8%) and outpatient encounters (78.3%). Test positivity varied across age (0-4: 19.8%, 5-17: 1.8%, adults: 0.7%), regions (7.6-16.1%), settings (inpatient 4.7%, outpatient 14.2%), and test indication (5.0-35.9%). When compared to age, setting or indication-specific positivity, bias due to using NREVSS positivity to correct for untested ARIs ranged from - 76% to 3556%. CONCLUSIONS: RSV-test positivity depends on the characteristics of patients for whom those tests were ordered. NREVSS-based correction for RSV-under-ascertainment underestimates the true incidence among children and overestimate rates among adults. Demographic-specific detail on testing practice and positivity can improve the accuracy of RSV-incidence estimates.

Generalizability and accuracy of IBM MarketScan health risk assessment instrument data for augmentation of commercial claims data.

PURPOSE: We evaluated the generalizability and accuracy of the IBM® MarketScan® Health Risk Assessment (HRA) data to assess its suitability as supplement to linked claims data. METHODS: We identified adult private insurance enrollees in the IBM® MarketScan® Commercial Claims & Encounters (CC&E) and HRA databases between 2012 and 2017. In the claims data, for each enrollee, we sampled the first calendar year with continuous enrollment indicating full capture of claims data and extracted linked HRA survey data if available. We compared HRA participants and non-participants considering demographics, prevalences of chronic conditions, and healthcare utilization. Including the subsample with HRA data only, we estimated the negative predictive value (NPV) of obesity and smoking reported in the HRA against diagnosis code in the claims data. RESULTS: Between 2012 and 2017, 2 693 444 and 31 450 000 of HRA and non-HRA participants were included in the study, respectively. Chronic diseases were similarly distributed between the two populations, with hypertension and hyperlipidemia representing the highest prevalence difference (1.4%). The two samples showed similar healthcare utilization. The proportion of false-negatives for obesity and smoking information when relying on the HRA data compared to patients with positive diagnosis based on claims data was low (<1%). Prevalence estimates of both variables were similar to national estimates. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the overall HRA population may represent the overall claims population and HRA provides certain data elements with satisfactory accuracy.