The Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic is Associated with a Substantial Rise in Frequency and Severity of Presentation of Youth-Onset Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the frequency and severity of new cases of youth-onset type 2 diabetes in the US during the first year of the pandemic compared with the mean of the previous 2 years. STUDY DESIGN: Multicenter (n = 24 centers), hospital-based, retrospective chart review. Youth aged ≤21 years with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes between March 2018 and February 2021, body mass index ≥85th percentile, and negative pancreatic autoantibodies were included. Demographic and clinical data, including case numbers and frequency of metabolic decompensation, were compared between groups. RESULTS: A total of 3113 youth (mean [SD] 14.4 [2.4] years, 50.5% female, 40.4% Hispanic, 32.7% Black, 14.5% non-Hispanic White) were assessed. New cases of type 2 diabetes increased by 77.2% in the year during the pandemic (n = 1463) compared with the mean of the previous 2 years, 2019 (n = 886) and 2018 (n = 765). The likelihood of presenting with metabolic decompensation and severe diabetic ketoacidosis also increased significantly during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of newly diagnosed youth-onset type 2 diabetes increased significantly during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, resulting in enormous strain on pediatric diabetes health care providers, patients, and families. Whether the increase was caused by coronavirus disease 2019 infection, or just associated with environmental changes and stressors during the pandemic is unclear. Further studies are needed to determine whether this rise is limited to the US and whether it will persist over time.

Risk factors for adverse outcomes in children with diabetic ketoacidosis.

OBJECTIVE: Develop a multivariable model to identify children with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and/or hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state (HHS) at increased risk of adverse outcomes, and apply it to analyze adverse outcomes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Retrospective review of clinical data from 4565 admissions (4284 with DKA alone, 31 [0.7%] only HHS, 250 [5.4%] hyperosmolar DKA) to a large academic children's hospital from January 2010-June 2023. 2010-2019 data (N=3004) were used as a training dataset, and 2020-2021 (N=903) and 2022-2023 (N=658) data for validation. Death or intensive care unit stays >48 hours comprised a composite "Adverse Outcome" group. Risks for this composite outcome were assessed using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: There were 47 admissions with Adverse Outcomes (1.5%) in 2010-2019, 46 (5.0%) in 2020-2021, and 16 (2.4%) in 2022-2023. Eight patients died (0.18%). Maximum serum glucose, initial pH and diagnosis of type 2 diabetes most strongly predicted Adverse Outcomes. The proportion of patients with type 2 diabetes was highest in 2020-2021. A multivariable model incorporating these factors had excellent discrimination (area under receiver operator characteristic curve [AUC] of 0.948) for the composite outcome in the training dataset, and similar predictive power (AUC 0.960 and 0.873) in the 2020-2021 and 2022-2023 validation datasets, respectively. In the full dataset, AUC for death was 0.984. CONCLUSIONS: Type 2 diabetes and severity of initial hyperglycemia and acidosis are independent risk factors for Adverse Outcomes, and explain the higher frequency of Adverse Outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. Risks decreased in January 2022-June 2023.