The predictive performance of criminal risk assessment tools used at sentencing: Systematic review of validation studies.

Although risk assessment tools have been widely used to inform sentencing decisions, there is uncertainty about the extent and quality of evidence of their predictive performance when validated in new samples. Following PRISMA guidelines, we conducted a systematic review of validation studies of 11 commonly used risk assessment tools for sentencing. We identified 36 studies with 597,665 participants, among which were 27 independent validation studies with 177,711 individuals. Overall, the predictive performance of the included risk assessment tools was mixed, and ranged from poor to moderate. Tool performance was typically overestimated in studies with smaller sample sizes or studies in which tool developers were co-authors. Most studies only reported area under the curve (AUC), which ranged from 0.57 to 0.75 in independent studies with more than 500 participants. The majority did not report key performance measures, such as calibration and rates of false positives and negatives. In addition, most validation studies had a high risk of bias, partly due to inappropriate analytical approach used. We conclude that the research priority is for future investigations to address the key methodological shortcomings identified in this review, and policy makers should enable this research. More sufficiently powered independent validation studies are necessary.

Prediction of reoffending risk in men convicted of sexual offences: development and validation of novel and scalable risk assessment tools (OxRIS).

Background: Current risk assessment tools have a limited evidence base with few validations, poor reporting of outcomes, and rarely include modifiable factors. Methods: We examined a national cohort of men convicted of sexual crimes in Sweden. We developed prediction models for three outcomes: violent (including sexual), any, and sexual reoffending. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to develop multivariable prediction models and validated these in an external sample. We reported discrimination and calibration statistics at prespecified cut-offs. Findings: We identified 16,231 men convicted of sexual offences, of whom 14.8% violently reoffended during a mean follow up of 38 months, 31.4% for any crime (34 months), and 3.6% for sexual crimes (42 months). Models for violent and any reoffending showed good discrimination and calibration. At 1, 3, and 5 years, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.75-0.76 for violent reoffending and 0.74-0.75 for any reoffending. The prediction model for sexual reoffending showed modest discrimination (AUC = 0.67) and good calibration. We have generated three simple and web-based risk calculators, which are freely available. Interpretation: Scalable evidence-based risk assessment tools for sexual offenders in the criminal justice system and forensic mental health could assist decision-making and treatment allocation by identifying those at higher risk, and screening out low risk persons.

Factors associated with suicide risk among Chinese adults: A prospective cohort study of 0.5 million individuals.

BACKGROUND: Suicide is a leading cause of death in China and accounts for about one-sixth of all suicides worldwide. The objective of this study was to examine the recent distribution of suicide and risk factors for death by suicide. Identifying underlying risk factors could benefit development of evidence-based prevention and intervention programs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a prospective study, the China Kadoorie Biobank, of 512,715 individuals (41% men, mean age 52 years) from 10 (5 urban, 5 rural) areas which are diverse across China in geographic locations, social economic developmental stages, and prevalence of disease patterns. After the baseline measurements of risk factors during 2004 to 2008, participants were followed up for suicide outcomes including suicide and possible suicide deaths. Risk factors, such as sociodemographic factors and physical and mental health status, were assessed by semistructured interviews and self-report questionnaires. Suicide and possible suicide deaths were identified through linkage to the local death registries using ICD-10 codes. We conducted Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for suicide and for possible suicide in sensitivity analyses. During an average follow-up period of 9.9 years, 520 (101 per 100,000) people died from suicide (51.3% male), and 79.8% of them lived in rural areas. Sociodemographic factors associated with increased suicide risk were male gender (adjusted hazard ratios [aHR] = 1.6 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.0], p < 0.001), older age (1.3 [1.2 to 1.5] by each 10-yr increase, p < 0.001), rural residence (2.6 [2.1 to 3.3], p < 0.001), and single status (1.7 [1.4 to 2.2], p < 0.001). Increased hazards were found for family-related stressful life events (aHR = 1.8 [1.2 to 1.9], p < 0.001) and for major physical illnesses (1.5 [1.3 to 1.9], p < 0.001). There were strong associations of suicide with a history of lifetime mental disorders (aHR = 9.6 [5.9 to 15.6], p < 0.001) and lifetime schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (11.0 [7.1 to 17.0], p < 0.001). Links between suicide risk and depressive disorders (aHR = 2.6 [1.4 to 4.8], p = 0.002) and generalized anxiety disorders (2.6 [1.0 to 7.1], p = 0.056) in the last 12 months, and sleep disorders (1.4 [1.2 to 1.7], p < 0.001) in the past month were also found. All HRs were adjusted for sociodemographic factors including gender, age, residence, single status, education, and income. The associations with possible suicide deaths were mostly similar to those with suicide deaths, although there was no clear link between possible suicide deaths and psychiatric factors such as depression and generalized anxiety disorders. A limitation of the study is that there is likely underreporting of mental disorders due to the use of self-report information for some diagnostic categories. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that a range of sociodemographic, lifestyle, stressful life events, physical, and mental health factors were associated with suicide in China. High-risk groups identified were elderly men in rural settings and individuals with mental disorders. These findings could form the basis of targeted approaches to reduce suicide mortality in China.

Assessment of violence risk in 440 psychiatric patients in China: examining the feasibility and acceptability of a novel and scalable approach (FoVOx).

BACKGROUND: Violence risk assessment is a routine part of clinical services in mental health, and in particular secure psychiatric hospitals. The use of prediction models and risk tools can assist clinical decision-making on risk management, including decisions about further assessments, referral, hospitalization and treatment. In recent years, scalable evidence-based tools, such as Forensic Psychiatry and Violent Oxford (FoVOx), have been developed and validated for patients with mental illness. However, their acceptability and utility in clinical settings is not known. Therefore, we conducted a clinical impact study in multiple institutions that provided specialist mental health service. METHODS: We followed a two-step mixed-methods design. In phase one, we examined baseline risk factors on 330 psychiatric patients from seven forensic psychiatric institutes in China. In phase two, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 11 clinicians regarding violence risk assessment from ten mental health centres. We compared the FoVOx score on each admission (n = 110) to unstructured clinical risk assessment and used a thematic analysis to assess clinician views on the accuracy and utility of this tool. RESULTS: The median estimated probability of violent reoffending (FoVOx score) within 1 year was 7% (range 1-40%). There was fair agreement (72/99, 73% agreement) on the risk categories between FoVOx and clinicians' assessment on risk categories, and moderate agreement (10/12, 83% agreement) when examining low and high risk categories. In a majority of cases (56/101, 55%), clinicians thought the FoVOx score was an accurate representation of the violent risk of an individual patient. Clinicians suggested some additional clinical, social and criminal risk factors should be considered during any comprehensive assessment. In addition, FoVOx was considered to be helpful in assisting clinical decision-making and individual risk assessment. Ten out of 11 clinicians reported that FoVOx was easy to use, eight out of 11 was practical, and all clinicians would consider using it in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians found that violence risk assessment could be improved by using a simple, scalable tool, and that FoVOx was feasible and practical to use.

Drug Use Disorders and Violence: Associations With Individual Drug Categories.

We conducted a systematic review that examined the link between individual drug categories and violent outcomes. We searched for primary case-control and cohort investigations that reported risk of violence against others among individuals diagnosed with drug use disorders using validated clinical criteria, following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines. We identified 18 studies published during 1990-2019, reporting data from 591,411 individuals with drug use disorders. We reported odds ratios of the violence risk in different categories of drug use disorders compared with those without. We found odds ratios ranging from 0.8 to 25.0 for most individual drug categories, with generally higher odds ratios among individuals with polydrug use disorders. In addition, we explored sources of between-study heterogeneity by subgroup and meta-regression analyses. Cohort investigations reported a lower risk of violence than case-control reports (odds ratio =  2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1, 3.5) vs. 6.6 (95% CI: 5.1, 8.6)), and associations were stronger when the outcome was any violence rather than intimate partner violence (odds ratio = 5.7 (95% CI: 3.8, 8.6) vs. 1.7 (95% CI: 1.4, 2.1)), which was consistent with results from the meta-regression. Overall, these findings highlight the potential impact of preventing and treating drug use disorders on reducing violence risk and associated morbidities.

Mental disorders and intimate partner violence perpetrated by men towards women: A Swedish population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Intimate partner violence (IPV) against women is associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes. Although mental disorders have been linked to an increased risk of perpetrating IPV against women, the direction and magnitude of the association remain uncertain. In a longitudinal design, we examined the association between mental disorders and IPV perpetrated by men towards women in a population-based sample and used sibling comparisons to control for factors shared by siblings, such as genetic and early family environmental factors. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using Swedish nationwide registries, we identified men from 9 diagnostic groups over 1998-2013, with sample sizes ranging from 9,529 with autism to 88,182 with depressive disorder. We matched individuals by age and sex to general population controls (ranging from 186,017 to 1,719,318 controls), and calculated the hazard ratios of IPV against women. We also estimated the hazard ratios of IPV against women in unaffected full siblings (ranging from 4,818 to 37,885 individuals) compared with the population controls. Afterwards, we compared the hazard ratios for individuals with psychiatric diagnoses with those for siblings using the ratio of hazard ratios (RHR). In sensitivity analyses, we examined the contribution of previous IPV against women and common psychiatric comorbidities, substance use disorders and personality disorders. The average follow-up time across diagnoses ranged from 3.4 to 4.8 years. In comparison to general population controls, all psychiatric diagnoses studied except autism were associated with an increased risk of IPV against women in men, with hazard ratios ranging from 1.5 (95% CI 1.3-1.7) to 7.7 (7.2-8.3) (p-values < 0.001). In sibling analyses, we found that men with depressive disorder, anxiety disorder, alcohol use disorder, drug use disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, and personality disorders had a higher risk of IPV against women than their unaffected siblings, with RHR values ranging from 1.7 (1.3-2.1) to 4.4 (3.7-5.2) (p-values < 0.001). Sensitivity analyses showed higher risk of IPV against women in men when comorbid substance use disorders and personality disorders were present, compared to risk when these comorbidities were absent. In addition, increased IPV risk was also found in those without previous IPV against women. The absolute rates of IPV against women ranged from 0.1% to 2.1% across diagnoses over 3.4 to 4.8 years. Individuals with alcohol use disorders (1.7%, 1,406/82,731) and drug use disorders (2.1%, 1,216/57,901) had the highest rates. Our analyses were restricted to IPV leading to arrest, suggesting that the applicability of our results may be limited to more severe forms of IPV perpetration. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that most of the studied mental disorders are associated with an increased risk of perpetrating IPV towards women, and that substance use disorders, as principal or comorbid diagnoses, have the highest absolute and relative risks. The findings support the development of IPV risk identification and prevention services among men with substance use disorders as an approach to reduce the prevalence of IPV.

Depression, violence and cortisol awakening response: a 3-year longitudinal study in adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Despite evidence of links between depression and violent outcomes, potential moderators of this association remain unknown. The current study tested whether a biological marker, cortisol, moderated this association in a longitudinal sample of adolescents. METHODS: Participants were 358 Dutch adolescents (205 boys) with a mean age of 15 years at the first measurement. Depressive symptoms, the cortisol awakening response (CAR) and violent outcomes were measured annually across 3 years. The CAR was assessed by two measures: waking cortisol activity (CAR area under the curve ground) and waking cortisol reactivity (CAR area under the curve increase). Within-individual regression models were adopted to test the interaction effects between depressive symptoms and CAR on violent outcomes, which accounted for all time-invariant factors such as genetic factors and early environments. We additionally adjusted for time-varying factors including alcohol drinking, substance use and stressful life events. RESULTS: In this community sample, 24% of adolescents perpetrated violent behaviours over 3 years. We found that CAR moderated the effects of depressive symptoms on adolescent violent outcomes (ßs ranged from -0.12 to -0.28). In particular, when the CAR was low, depressive symptoms were positively associated with violent outcomes in within-individual models, whereas the associations were reversed when the CAR was high. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the CAR should be investigated further as a potential biological marker for violence in adolescents with high levels of depressive symptoms.

Aggressive Behaviors in Alzheimer Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to estimate the risk of perpetrating aggression in Alzheimer disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of primary studies. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in six bibliographic databases according to a preregistered protocol. Studies that reported aggressive behaviors in individuals with AD and MCI compared with healthy individuals or those with other dementia etiologies were identified. Risks of aggressive behaviors were assessed using random effects models to calculate pooled odds ratios (ORs). Publication bias was examined. RESULTS: In total, 17 studies involving 6,399 individuals with AD and 2,582 with MCI were identified. Compared with healthy individuals, significantly increased risks of aggressive behaviors were found in AD (OR, 4.9, 95% CI, 1.8-13.2) but not in MCI (OR, 1.8, 95% CI, 0.7-4.3). When comparing AD with MCI, the risk in AD was higher (OR, 2.6, 95% CI, 1.7-4.0). We found no differences in risk of aggressive behaviors between AD and other dementia subtypes or between amnestic and nonamnestic MCI. CONCLUSION: Individuals with AD are at higher risk of manifesting aggressive behaviors than healthy individuals or those with MCI. Our findings not only underscore the necessity of treatment of aggressive behaviors in AD but also highlight the importance of preventing the transition from MCI to AD.

Internalizing symptoms and dating violence perpetration in adolescence.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests an association between internalizing symptoms and violence against others. It remains unknown whether this link exists in the context of romantic relationships. In the current study, we tested whether anxiety and depression were associated over time with adolescent dating violence perpetration. METHODS: The sample included 238 Canadian adolescents (42% boys). Using a longitudinal design, their anxiety, depressive symptoms, and dating violence perpetration were annually assessed from age 14 to 15 years. RESULTS: Cross-lagged analyses revealed effects from anxiety and depressive symptoms to dating violence one year later (ß = 0.27, p < .001; and ß = 0.14, p = .04, respectively). No reversed cross-lagged paths were found from dating violence to subsequent anxiety or depression. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings underscore the predictive value of internalizing symptoms on dating violence perpetration. Reducing internalizing symptoms and improving coping strategies are important targets for the prevention of dating violence.

Being Poorer Than the Rest of the Neighborhood: Relative Deprivation and Problem Behavior of Youth.

According to the neighborhood effects hypothesis, there is a negative relation between neighborhood wealth and youth's problem behavior. It is often assumed that there are more problems in deprived neighborhoods, but there are also reports of higher rates of behavioral problems in more affluent neighborhoods. Much of this literature does not take into account relative wealth. Our central question was whether the economic position of adolescents' families, relative to the neighborhood in which they lived, was related to adolescents' internalizing and externalizing problem behavior. We used longitudinal data for youth between 12-16 and 16-20 years of age, combined with population register data (N = 926; 55% females). We employ between-within models to account for time-invariant confounders, including parental background characteristics. Our findings show that, for adolescents, moving to a more affluent neighborhood was related to increased levels of depression, social phobia, aggression, and conflict with fathers and mothers. This could be indirect evidence for the relative deprivation mechanism, but we could not confirm this, and we did not find any gender differences. The results do suggest that future research should further investigate the role of individuals' relative position in their neighborhood in order not to overgeneralize neighborhood effects and to find out for whom neighborhoods matter.

Brief report: how adolescent personality moderates the effect of love history on the young adulthood romantic relationship quality?

This study examined the effect of previous romantic relationship involvement on later romantic relationship quality and tested whether adolescents' personality type (i.e., overcontrollers, undercontrollers, resilients) moderated this link. We answered our research questions in a sample of 320 Dutch participants (213 girls) who had a romantic relationship when they were 21 years old. At 12 years of age, their personality types were identified. At 21 years of age, participants reported their current romantic relationship quality (i.e., commitment, exploration, and reconsideration) and indicated the number of romantic relationships they had before. No main effects of the number of romantic relationships on current romantic relationship quality were found. There were significant interaction effects between personality types and the number of romantic relationships on romantic relationship quality. With more romantic relationship experiences, undercontrollers committed less to and explored less in their current romantic relationship. No such link was found for resilients and overcontrollers.

Effectiveness of Violence Prevention Interventions: Umbrella Review of Research in the General Population.

To address the societal harms of violence, many violence prevention interventions have been developed, tested, and implemented in the general population. These have been reported in systematic reviews and meta-analyses, which have typically focused on one type of intervention or outcome. We aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current evidence regarding the effectiveness of different psychosocial interventions in reducing all forms of violence toward others. We have conducted an umbrella review of previous meta-analyses using standard approaches and converted findings on effectiveness into odds ratios. We tested for the underlying quality of the meta-analytic evidence by examining heterogeneity, excess statistical significance, prediction intervals, and small study effects. We identified 16 meta-analyses, including nine investigating psychosocial interventions, and five legislative and policy changes. Most meta-analyses reported positive effects of tested interventions. The strongest effects were found for sports-based initiatives, and the weakest for general population programs aimed at early childhood, youth development, and reducing sexual assault perpetration by men. Legislative changes had varying effectiveness. We conclude that simple, scalable, and cost-efficient programs, such as sport-based initiatives, have the clearest empirical support as population-based approaches to violence prevention.

Pals, problems, and personality: the moderating role of personality in the longitudinal association between adolescents' and best friends' delinquency.

We examined the potential moderating role of Block's personality types (i.e., overcontrollers, undercontrollers, and resilients) on the longitudinal associations between adolescents' and their best friends' delinquency. Across three annual waves, 497 Dutch adolescents (283 boys, M(Age) = 13 years at Wave 1) and their best friends reported on their delinquent behaviors. Adolescents' three personality types were obtained by latent class growth analysis on their annual reports on Big Five personality. A three-group cross-lagged panel analysis was performed on three waves of data. Delinquency of overcontrollers was predicted by their best friends' delinquency, whereas delinquency of undercontrollers and resilients was not. Delinquency of undercontrollers and resilients predicted their best friends' delinquency, but overcontrollers' delinquency did not. These findings suggest that personality may play an important role in adolescents' susceptibility to the influence of friends' delinquency, as well as in youths' ability to influence friends through their own delinquency.

Individual-level risk factors for suicide mortality in the general population: an umbrella review.

BACKGROUND: Deaths by suicide remain a major public health challenge worldwide. Identifying and targeting risk factors for suicide mortality is a potential approach to prevention. We aimed to summarise current knowledge on the range and magnitude of individual-level risk factors for suicide mortality in the general population and evaluate the quality of the evidence. METHODS: In this umbrella review, five bibliographic databases were systematically searched for articles published from database inception to Aug 31, 2022. We included meta-analyses of observational studies on individual-level risk factors for suicide mortality in the general population. Biological, genetic, perinatal, and ecological risk factors were beyond the scope of this study. Effect sizes were synthesised and compared across domains. To test robustness and consistency of the findings, evidence for small-study effects and excess significance bias (ie, the ratio between the overall meta-analysis effect size and that of its largest included study) was examined, and prediction intervals were calculated. Risk of bias was assessed by the Risk of Bias in Systematic Reviews instrument. The protocol was pre-registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021230119). FINDINGS: We identified 33 meta-analyses on 38 risk factors for suicide mortality in the general population. 422 (93%) of the 454 primary studies included in the meta-analyses were from high-income countries. A previous suicide attempt and suicidal ideation emerged as strong risk factors (with effect sizes ranging from 6 to 16). Psychiatric disorders were associated with a greatly elevated risk of suicide mortality, with risk ratios in the range of 4-13. Suicide risk for physical illnesses (such as cancer and epilepsy) and sociodemographic factors (including unemployment and low education) were typically increased two-fold. Contact with the criminal justice system, state care in childhood, access to firearms, and parental death by suicide also increased the risk of suicide mortality. Among risk factors for which sex-stratified analyses were available, associations were generally similar for males and females. However, the quality of the evidence was limited by excess significance and high heterogeneity, and prediction intervals suggested poor replicability for almost two-thirds of identified risk factors. INTERPRETATION: A wide range of risk factors were identified across various domains, which underscores suicide mortality as a multifactorial phenomenon. Prevention strategies that span individual and population approaches should account for the identified factors and their relative strengths. Despite the large number of risk factors investigated, few associations were supported by robust evidence. Evidence of causal inference will need to be tested in high-quality study designs. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.

Development and Validation of a Prediction Tool for Reoffending Risk in Domestic Violence.

Importance: Current risk assessment tools for domestic violence against family members were developed with small and selected samples, have low accuracy with few external validations, and do not report key performance measures. Objective: To develop new tools to assess risk of reoffending among individuals who have perpetrated domestic violence. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prognostic study investigated a national cohort of all individuals arrested for domestic violence between 1998 and 2013 in Sweden using information from multiple national registers, including National Crime Register, National Patient Register, Longitudinal Integrated Database for Health Insurance and Labour Market Studies Register, and Multi-Generation Register. Data were analyzed from August 2022 to June 2023. Exposure: Arrest for domestic violence. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prediction models were developed for 3 reoffending outcomes after arrest for domestic violence: conviction of a new violent crime (including domestic violence), conviction of any new crime, and rearrest for domestic violence at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. The prediction models were created using sociodemographic factors, criminological factors, and mental health status-related factors, linking data from multiple population-based longitudinal registers. Cox proportional hazard multivariable regression was used to develop prediction models and validate them in external samples. Key performance measures, including discrimination at prespecified cutoffs and calibration statistics, were investigated. Results: The cohort included 27 456 individuals (mean [SD] age, 39.4 [11.6] years; 24 804 men [90.3%]) arrested for domestic violence, of whom 4222 (15.4%) reoffended and were convicted for a new violent crime during a mean (SD) follow-up of 26.5 (27.0) months, 9010 (32.8%) reoffended and were convicted for a new crime (mean [SD] follow-up, 22.4 [25.1] months), and 2080 (7.6%) were rearrested for domestic violence (mean [SD] follow-up, 25.7 [30.6] months). Prediction models were developed with sociodemographic, criminological, and mental health factors and showed good measures of discrimination and calibration for violent reoffending and any reoffending. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for risk of violent reoffending was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.76) at 1 year, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77) at 3 years, and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77) 5 years. The AUC for risk of any reoffending was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77) at 1 year and at 3 years and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.76) at 5 years. The model for domestic violence reoffending showed modest discrimination (C index, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.61-0.65) and good calibration. The validation models showed discrimination and calibration performance similar to those of derivation models for all 3 reoffending outcomes. The prediction models have been translated into 3 simple online risk calculators that are freely available to use. Conclusions and Relevance: This prognostic study developed scalable, evidence-based prediction tools that could support decision-making in criminal justice systems, particularly at the arrest stage when identifying those at higher risk of reoffending and screening out individuals at low risk of reoffending. Furthermore, these tools can enhance treatment allocation by enabling criminal justice services to focus on modifiable risk factors identified in the tools for individuals at high risk of reoffending.

Validation and recalibration of OxMIV in predicting violent behaviour in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

Oxford Mental Illness and Violence (OxMIV) addresses the need in mental health services for a scalable, transparent and valid tool to predict violent behaviour in patients with severe mental illness. However, external validations are lacking. Therefore, we have used a Dutch sample of general psychiatric patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (N = 637) to evaluate the performance of OxMIV in predicting interpersonal violence over 3 years. The predictors and outcome were measured with standardized instruments and multiple sources of information. Patients were mostly male (n = 493, 77%) and, on average, 27 (SD = 7) years old. The outcome rate was 9% (n = 59). Discrimination, as measured by the area under the curve, was moderate at 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.61-0.73). Calibration-in-the-large was adequate, with a ratio between predicted and observed events of 1.2 and a Brier score of 0.09. At the individual level, risks were systematically underestimated in the original model, which was remedied by recalibrating the intercept and slope of the model. Probability scores generated by the recalibrated model can be used as an adjunct to clinical decision-making in Dutch mental health services.

Predicting Violent Reoffending in Individuals Released From Prison in a Lower-Middle-Income Country: A Validation of OxRec in Tajikistan.

Background: Although around 70% of the world's prison population live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), risk assessment tools for criminal recidivism have been developed and validated in high-income countries (HICs). Validating such tools in LMIC settings is important for the risk management of people released from prison, development of evidence-based intervention programmes, and effective allocation of limited resources. Methods: We aimed to externally validate a scalable risk assessment tool, the Oxford Risk of Recidivism (OxRec) tool, which was developed in Sweden, using data from a cohort of people released from prisons in Tajikistan. Data were collected from interviews (for predictors) and criminal records (for some predictors and main outcomes). Individuals were first interviewed in prison and then followed up over a 1-year period for post-release violent reoffending outcomes. We assessed the predictive performance of OxRec by testing discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; AUC) and calibration (calibration statistics and plots). In addition, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for different predetermined risk thresholds. Results: The cohort included 970 individuals released from prison. During the 12-month follow-up, 144 (15%) were reincarcerated for violent crimes. The original model performed well. The discriminative ability of OxRec Tajikistan was good (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI 0.66-0.75). The calibration plot suggested an underestimation of observed risk probabilities. However, after recalibration, model performance was improved (Brier score = 0.12; calibration in the large was 1.09). At a selected risk threshold of 15%, the tool had a sensitivity of 60%, specificity of 65%, PPV 23% and NPV 90%. In addition, OxRec was feasible to use, despite challenges to risk prediction in LMICs. Conclusion: In an external validation in a LMIC, the OxRec tool demonstrated good performance in multiple measures. OxRec could be used in Tajikistan to help prioritize interventions for people who are at high-risk of violent reoffending after incarceration and screen out others who are at lower risk of violent reoffending. The use of validated risk assessment tools in LMICs could improve risk stratification and inform the development of future interventions tailored at modifiable risk factors for recidivism, such as substance use and mental health problems.

Risk factors for suicide in adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of psychological autopsy studies.

QUESTION: Effective prevention of suicide requires a comprehensive understanding of risk factors. STUDY SELECTION AND ANALYSIS: Five databases were systematically searched to identify psychological autopsy studies (published up to February 2022) that reported on risk factors for suicide mortality among adults in the general population. Effect sizes were pooled as odds ratios (ORs) using random-effects models for each risk factor examined in at least three independent samples. FINDINGS: A total of 37 case-control studies from 23 countries were included, providing data on 40 risk factors in 5633 cases and 7101 controls. The magnitude of effect sizes varied substantially both between and within risk factor domains. Clinical factors had the strongest associations with suicide, including any mental disorder (OR=13.1, 95% CI 9.9 to 17.4) and a history of self-harm (OR=10.1, 95% CI 6.6 to 15.6). By comparison, effect sizes were smaller for other domains relating to sociodemographic status, family history, and adverse life events (OR range 2-5). CONCLUSIONS: A wide range of predisposing and precipitating factors are associated with suicide among adults in the general population, but with clear differences in their relative strength. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021232878.

Associations between prisons and recidivism: A nationwide longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVES: To examine differences in recidivism rates between different prisons using two designs-between-individual and within-individual-to account for confounding factors. METHODS: We examined recidivism rates among 37,891 individuals released from 44 Swedish prisons in three security levels, and who were followed from 2006 to 2013. We used longitudinal data from nationwide registers, including all convictions from district courts. First, we applied a between-individual design (Cox proportional hazards regression), comparing reconviction rates between individuals released from prisons within the same security level, while adjusting for a range of individual-level covariates. Second, we applied a within-individual design (stratified Cox proportional hazards regression), comparing rates of reconviction within the same individuals, i.e., we compared rates after release from one prison to the rates in the same individual after release from another prison, thus adjusting for all time-invariant confounders within each individual (e.g. genetics and early environment). We also adjusted for a range of time-varying individual-level covariates. RESULTS: Results showed differences in the hazard of recidivism between different prisons in between-individual analyses, with hazards ranging from 1.22 (1.05-1.43) to 4.99 (2.44-10.21). Results from within-individual analyses, which further adjusted for all time-invariant confounders, showed minimal differences between prisons, with hazards ranging from 0.95 (0.87-1.05) to 1.05 (0.95-1.16). Only small differences were found when violent and non-violent crimes were analyzed separately. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights the importance of research designs that more fully adjust for individual-level confounding factors to avoid over-interpretation of the variability in comparisons across prisons.