Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.

Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Ecological impacts of non-native tree species plantations are broad and heterogeneous: a review of Brazilian research.

Non-native tree plantations represent 7% of the world's forests and 1.24% of the Brazilian vegetation. Planted areas are expected to increase in the near future; thus, it is important to systematize existing knowledge on the ecological effects of plantations to aid forest management and biodiversity conservation. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the ecological literature associated with planted Pinus and Eucalyptus species in Brazil. We compared publication metrics with geographical distribution of species, ecosystems, biomes, studied taxa, and ecological impacts. We found 152 publications from 1992 to 2012. Number of publications positively correlated with area planted, number of plantations with forest certification, number of researchers, and richness of studied kingdoms. Most studies were in terrestrial ecosystems (92.1%), the Atlantic Forest biome (55.3%), and the kingdom Animalia (68.2%). Most impacts of non-native tree plantations were negative (55.9%), followed by positive (27%), and mixed (17.1%). Negative impacts were declines in species richness and abundance, seed bank diversity, and natural regeneration. Positive impacts were increase or mainteinance of seed bank diversity and natural regeneration. Mixed impacts were increases in abundance of native tree plantation pests. Taken together, results suggest forest management can help maintain biodiversity if it considers previous environmental conditions and integrates plantations with surrounding habitats.

Loci under selection during multiple range expansions of an invasive plant are mostly population specific, but patterns are associated with climate.

Identifying the genes underlying rapid evolutionary changes, describing their function and ascertaining the environmental pressures that determine fitness are the central elements needed for understanding of evolutionary processes and phenotypic changes that improve the fitness of populations. It has been hypothesized that rapid adaptive changes in new environments may contribute to the rapid spread and success of invasive plants and animals. As yet, studies of adaptation during invasion are scarce, as is knowledge of the genes underlying adaptation, especially in multiple replicated invasions. Here, we quantified how genotype frequencies change during invasions, resulting in rapid evolution of naturalized populations. We used six fully replicated common garden experiments in Brazil where Pinus taeda (loblolly pine) was introduced at the same time, in the same numbers, from the same seed sources, and has formed naturalized populations expanding outward from the plantations. We used a combination of nonparametric, population genetics and multivariate statistics to detect changes in genotype frequencies along each of the six naturalization gradients and their association with climate as well as shifts in allele frequencies compared to the source populations. Results show 25 genes with significant shifts in genotype frequencies. Six genes had shifts in more than one population. Climate explained 25% of the variation in the groups of genes under selection across all locations, but specific genes under strong selection during invasions did not show climate-related convergence. In conclusion, we detected rapid evolutionary changes during invasive range expansions, but the particular gene-level patterns of evolution may be population specific.

Rapid evolution and range expansion of an invasive plant are driven by provenance-environment interactions.

To improve our ability to prevent and manage biological invasions, we must understand their ecological and evolutionary drivers. We are often able to explain invasions after they happen, but our predictive ability is limited. Here, we show that range expansions of introduced Pinus taeda result from an interaction between genetic provenance and climate and that temperature and precipitation clines predict the invasive performance of particular provenances. Furthermore, we show that genotypes can occupy climate niche spaces different from those observed in their native ranges and, at least in our case, that admixture is not a main driver of invasion. Genotypes respond to climate in distinct ways, and these interactions affect the ability of populations to expand their ranges. While rapid evolution in introduced ranges is a mechanism at later stages of the invasion process, the introduction of adapted genotypes is a key driver of naturalisation of populations of introduced species.

Making ecology really global.

Ecology must flourish globally, especially in a period of unprecedented anthropogenic global change. However, some regions dominate the ecological literature. Multiple barriers prevent global production and exchange of ecological knowledge. The first step towards solutions is acknowledging and diagnosing this inequality and embracing our geographical and cultural diversity.

Thematic assessment report on invasive alien species in Brazil: summary for policymakers / Relatório temático sobre espécies exóticas invasoras no Brasil: sumário para tomadores de decisão

Abstract Biological invasions are one of the major threats to biodiversity and good quality of life, resulting from the translocation of species by human action. There are more than 500 alien species currently invading ecosystems in Brazil, particularly plants and fishes, while little is known about invasive microorganisms. Although invasive alien species are present in all ecosystems in the country, most have been recorded in habitats with greater human interference, such as urban and peri-urban areas, farmland, dams, reservoirs, ports, and canals. Historically, the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil have had more invasive alien species, but there has been an increase in the number of invasive alien species in the central-western and northern regions in recent decades. The ornamental trade of plants and fishes as well as the illegal pet trade of wild mammals and reptiles are some of the main pathways for invasive species introduction and spread in Brazil. Breeding and cultivation systems that allow escape to natural areas are a relevant route of species introductions in freshwater ecosystems, while unintentional introductions from shipping and infrastructure are of extreme concern in marine ecosystems. The negative impacts of invasive alien species on the biota mainly include changes in community structure and local decrease in native species richness, mediated by predation, competition, and ecosystem changes. Most negative impacts are recorded for intentionally introduced species, such as fishes and plants, but unintentional introductions have led to impacts on good quality of life, with associated costs and impacts on human health. The management of biological invasions faces challenges that need to be overcome, such as the lack of public knowledge about the impact of invasive alien species, the popular appeal of charismatic invasive species or those used by humans, and the use of controversial control techniques. However, successful experiences of eradication and control in terrestrial and marine ecosystems have been recorded, some of them involving public engagement in management actions. Recognizing the issue as a cross-cutting public policy and developing ongoing governance experiences are fundamental goals for the management of invasive alien species in Brazil.

Resumo Invasões biológicas são uma das maiores ameaças à biodiversidade e à boa qualidade de vida, ocorrendo a partir da translocação de espécies por ação humana. Existem mais de 500 espécies exóticas invadindo ecossistemas atualmente no Brasil, com destaque para plantas e peixes. Pouco se sabe sobre microrganismos invasores. Apesar de existirem espécies exóticas invasoras em todos os ecossistemas no país, a maior parte dos registros foi feita em hábitats com maior interferência humana, como áreas urbanas, periurbanas, terras cultivadas, represas, reservatórios, portos e canais. Historicamente, as regiões sul e sudeste do Brasil apresentam mais espécies exóticas invasoras, mas nas últimas décadas se tem observado um aumento no número de espécies exóticas invasoras nas regiões centro-oeste e norte. O comércio de plantas e peixes ornamentais, assim como o comércio ilegal de mamíferos e répteis silvestres como animais de estimação são algumas das principais vias de introdução e disseminação de espécies exóticas invasoras no Brasil. Sistemas de criação e cultivo que possibilitam o escape para áreas naturais são uma relevante via de introdução em ecossistemas de águas continentais, enquanto introduções não intencionais a partir de navegação e de infraestrutura são de extrema preocupação em ecossistemas marinhos. Os impactos negativos de espécies exóticas invasoras sobre a biota incluem principalmente alterações na estrutura de comunidades e diminuição local da riqueza de espécies nativas, mediados por predação, competição e modificações ecossistêmicas. A maior parte dos impactos negativos registrados ocorreram para espécies introduzidas intencionalmente, como peixes e plantas, mas introduções não intencionais têm levado a impactos na boa qualidade de vida, com custos associados e impactos sobre a saúde humana. A gestão de invasões biológicas esbarra em desafios a serem superados, tais como a falta de conhecimento do público sobre o impacto de espécies exóticas invasoras, o apelo popular de espécies invasoras carismáticas ou utilizadas por humanos e o emprego de técnicas controversas de controle. Entretanto, experiências bem-sucedidas de erradicação e controle em ecossistemas terrestres e marinhos têm sido registrados, alguns deles envolvendo engajamento público nas ações de manejo. Reconhecer o tema como uma política pública transversal e desenvolver experiências continuadas de governança são metas fundamentais para a gestão e o manejo de espécies exóticas invasoras no Brasil.

Global effects of non-native tree species on multiple ecosystem services.

Non-native tree (NNT) species have been transported worldwide to create or enhance services that are fundamental for human well-being, such as timber provision, erosion control or ornamental value; yet NNTs can also produce undesired effects, such as fire proneness or pollen allergenicity. Despite the variety of effects that NNTs have on multiple ecosystem services, a global quantitative assessment of their costs and benefits is still lacking. Such information is critical for decision-making, management and sustainable exploitation of NNTs. We present here a global assessment of NNT effects on the three main categories of ecosystem services, including regulating (RES), provisioning (PES) and cultural services (CES), and on an ecosystem disservice (EDS), i.e. pollen allergenicity. By searching the scientific literature, country forestry reports, and social media, we compiled a global data set of 1683 case studies from over 125 NNT species, covering 44 countries, all continents but Antarctica, and seven biomes. Using different meta-analysis techniques, we found that, while NNTs increase most RES (e.g. climate regulation, soil erosion control, fertility and formation), they decrease PES (e.g. NNTs contribute less than native trees to global timber provision). Also, they have different effects on CES (e.g. increase aesthetic values but decrease scientific interest), and no effect on the EDS considered. NNT effects on each ecosystem (dis)service showed a strong context dependency, varying across NNT types, biomes and socio-economic conditions. For instance, some RES are increased more by NNTs able to fix atmospheric nitrogen, and when the ecosystem is located in low-latitude biomes; some CES are increased more by NNTs in less-wealthy countries or in countries with higher gross domestic products. The effects of NNTs on several ecosystem (dis)services exhibited some synergies (e.g. among soil fertility, soil formation and climate regulation or between aesthetic values and pollen allergenicity), but also trade-offs (e.g. between fire regulation and soil erosion control). Our analyses provide a quantitative understanding of the complex synergies, trade-offs and context dependencies involved for the effects of NNTs that is essential for attaining a sustained provision of ecosystem services.