Analysis and prediction of improved SEIR transmission dynamics model: taking the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy as an example.

This study aimed to predict the transmission trajectory of the 2019 Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) and analyze the impact of preventive measures on the spread of the epidemic. Considering that tracking a long-term epidemic trajectory requires explanatory modeling with more complexities than short-term predictions, an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) transmission dynamic model is established. The model depends on defining various parameters that describe both the virus and the population under study. However, it is likely that several of these parameters will exhibit significant variations among different states. Therefore, regression algorithms and heuristic algorithms were developed to effectively adapt the population-dependent parameters and ensure accurate fitting of the SEIR model to data for any specific state. In this study, we consider the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy as a case study, which occurred in August 2020. We divide the epidemic data from February to September of the same year into two distinct stages for analysis. The numerical results demonstrate that the improved SEIR model effectively simulates and predicts the transmission trajectories of the Italian epidemic during both periods before and after the second outbreak. By analyzing the impact of anti-epidemic measures on the spread of the disease, our findings emphasize the significance of implementing anti-epidemic preventive measures in COVID-19 modeling.

Airborne Bacteria Enriched PM2.5 Enhances the Inflammation in an Allergic Adolescent Mouse Model Induced by Ovalbumin.

Air pollution events frequently occur in China during the winter. Most investigations of pollution studies have focused on the physical and chemical properties of PM2.5. Many of these studies have indicated that PM2.5 exacerbates asthma or eosinophil inflammation. However, few studies have evaluated the relationship between bacterial loads in PM2.5, and especially pathogenic bacteria and childhood asthma. Airborne PM2.5 samples from heavily polluted air were collected in Hangzhou, China between December 2014 and January 2015. PM2.5 and ovalbumin (OVA) were intratracheally administered twice in 4-week intervals to induce the allergic pulmonary inflammation in adolescent C57/BL6 mice. PM2.5 exposure caused neutrophilic alveolitis and bronchitis. In the presence of OVA, the levels of the Th2 cytokines IL-4, IL-12, and IL-17 were significantly increased in bronchoalveolar lavage fluids (BALF) after PM2.5 exposure, while eosinophil infiltration and mucin secretion were also induced. In addition to adjuvant effects on OVA-induced allergic inflammation, PM2.5 exposure also led to the maturation of dendritic cells. These results suggest that PM2.5 exposure may aggravate lung eosinophilia and that PM2.5-bound microbial can exacerbate allergic and inflammatory lung diseases.

Anti­inflammatory effect of ciclamilast in an allergic model involving the expression of PDE4B.

The present study aimed to investigate the potent inhibitory effects and possible biochemical basis of the novel phosphodiesterase 4 (PDE4) inhibitor ciclamilast, which is a derivative of piclamilast (RP 73401), on PDE4 and allergic inflammation. Ciclamilast was orally administered to allergic rats, their lungs and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) were harvested, and their levels of inflammation and goblet cell hyperplasia, particularly cAMP­PDE activity, and expression and distribution of PDE4 subtypes were determined. The results suggested that oral administration of ciclamilast significantly reduced the total leukocyte number and eosinophil number in BALF and suppressed lung histology changes, including the infiltration of inflammatory cells into the perivascular and peribronchial spaces, structural changes and goblet cell hyperplasia. For eosinophil infiltration, ciclamilast exhibited improved selectivity compared with piclamilast. Furthermore, ciclamilast significantly inhibited the upregulated activity of cAMP­PDE and showed improved selective inhibition of the protein expression of PDE4B than piclamilast in a dose­dependent manner. The mRNA expression of PDE4D was significantly increased in allergic rats, but PDE4B was not. PDE4B was mainly distributed in the cytoplasm, whereas PDE4D was mainly distributed in the cell membrane. The improved anti­inflammatory activity of ciclamilast compared with piclamilast may be due to its higher level of inhibition of the activity, mRNA and protein expression of PDE4, particularly its effect on PDE4B.

The role of PDE4 in pulmonary inflammation and goblet cell hyperplasia in allergic rats.

Phosphodiesterase 4 (PDE4) has been suggested to a critical factor in the pathogenesis of inflammation by metabolizing cAMP in human leukocytes, endothelium and epithelium. The present study aimed at evaluating the PDE4 activity and expression, the relationship between the inflammation and cAMP- activity in the lungs, and potential interventions of PDE inhibitors and antiinflammatory drugs in the reduction of lung inflammation and goblet cell hyperplasia in allergic rats. The total leukocyte number and eosinophil number in bronchoalveolar lavegar fluid and infiltration of inflammatory cells in the perivascular and peribronchial spaces, structure changes and goblet cell hyperplasia in the OVA-sensitized and challenged allergic rats. A significant correlation was observed between the increases in cAMP-PDE activity and inflammation in the lung. Those OVA-induced changes were prevented by pretreatment with PDE inhibitor in a dose-related patterns and with glucocorticosteriod. We found an increase in the proportion of PDE4 and PDE4 gene expression, while a decrease in the proportion of PDE3 in the lung of the allergic rats. Incubation with different PDE inhibitors down-regulated OVA-induced cAMP hydrolysis. Our data suggest that PDE4C may play an important role in the airway inflammation, remodeling and goblet cell hyperplasia after repeated challenge of sensitized rats.

κ-Opioid Receptor Stimulation Improves Endothelial Function via Akt-stimulated NO Production in Hyperlipidemic Rats.

This study was designed to investigate the effect of U50,488H (a selective κ-opioid receptor agonist) on endothelial function impaired by hyperlipidemia and to determine the role of Akt-stimulated NO production in it. Hyperlipidemic model was established by feeding rats with a high-fat diet for 14 weeks. U50,488H and nor-BNI (a selective κ-opioid receptor antagonist) were administered intraperitoneally. In vitro, the involvement of the PI3K/Akt/eNOS pathway in the effect of U50,488H was studied using cultured endothelial cells subjected to artificial hyperlipidemia. Serum total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations dramatically increased after high-fat diet feeding. Administration of U50,488H significantly alleviated endothelial ultrastructural destruction and endothelium-dependent vasorelaxation impairment caused by hyperlipidemia. U50,488H also increased Akt/eNOS phosphorylation and serum/medium NO level both in vivo and in vitro. U50,488H increased eNOS activity and suppressed iNOS activity in vivo. The effects of U50,488H were abolished in vitro by siRNAs targeting κ-opioid receptor and Akt or PI3K/Akt/eNOS inhibitors. All effects of U50,488H were blocked by nor-BNI. These results demonstrate that κ-opioid receptor stimulation normalizes endothelial ultrastructure and function under hyperlipidemic condition. Its mechanism is related to the preservation of eNOS phosphorylation through activation of the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway and downregulation of iNOS expression/activity.