Temporal trends in population attributable fractions of modifiable risk factors for dementia: a time-series study of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2004-2019).

BACKGROUND: Interest in modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for dementia is high, given the personal, social, and economic impact of the disorder, especially in ageing societies such as the United Kingdom. Exploring the population attributable fraction (PAF) of dementia attributable to MRFs and how this may have changed over time remains unclear. Unravelling the temporal dynamics of MRFs is crucial for informing the development of evidence-based and effective public health policies. This investigation examined the temporal trajectories of MRFs for dementia in England. METHODS: We used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a panel study over eight waves collected between 2004 and 2019 (76,904 interviews in total). We calculated the PAFs for twelve MRFs (including six early- to mid-life factors and six late-life factors), as recommended by the Lancet Commission, and the individual weighted PAFs (IW-PAFs) for each risk factor. Temporal trends were analysed to understand the changes in the overall PAF and IW-PAF over the study period. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex and socioeconomic status (SES). RESULTS: The overall PAF for dementia MRFs changed from 46.73% in 2004/2005 to 36.79% in 2018/2019, though this trend was not statistically significant. During 2004-2019, hypertension, with an average IW-PAF of 8.21%, was the primary modifiable determinant of dementia, followed by obesity (6.16%), social isolation (5.61%), hearing loss (4.81%), depression (4.72%), low education (4.63%), physical inactivity (3.26%), diabetes mellitus (2.49%), smoking (2.0%), excessive alcohol consumption (1.16%), air pollution (0.42%), and traumatic brain injury (TBI) (0.26%). During 2004-2019, only IW-PAFs of low education, social isolation, and smoking showed significant decreasing trends, while IW-PAFs of other factors either did not change significantly or increased (including TBI, diabetes mellitus, and air pollution). Upon sex-specific disaggregation, a higher overall PAF for MRFs was found among women, predominantly associated with later-life risk factors, most notably social isolation, depression, and physical inactivity. Additionally, hearing loss, classified as an early- to mid-life factor, played a supplementary role in the identified sex disparity. A comparable discrepancy was evident upon PAF evaluation by SES, with lower income groups experiencing a higher dementia risk, largely tied to later-life factors such as social isolation, physical inactivity, depression, and smoking. Early- to mid-life factors, in particular, low education and obesity, were also observed to contribute to the SES-associated divergence in dementia risk. Temporal PAF and IW-PAF trends, stratified by sex and SES, revealed that MRF PAF gaps across sex or SES categories have persisted or increased. CONCLUSIONS: In England, there was little change over time in the proportion of dementia attributable to known modifiable risk factors. The observed trends underscore the continuing relevance of these risk factors and the need for targeted public health strategies to address them.

Association of the live microbe intake from foods with all-cause and cardiovascular disease-specific mortality: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Live dietary microbes have been hypothesized to promoting human health. However, there has been lacking perceptions to crystallize nexus between consumption of foods with live microbes and mortality. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of consumption of foods with medium to high amounts of live microbes with all-cause, cancer-specific, and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific mortality. METHODS: The data were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2018 at baseline linked to the 2019 National Death Index records. Based on consumption of foods that were categorized as either having medium or high microbial content (MedHi foods), participants were classified into three groups. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate the association of consumption of MedHi foods with mortality. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of consumption of MedHi foods in relation to mortality risk were also estimated. RESULTS: A total of 35,299 adults aged ≥ 20 years were included in this study. During a median follow-up of 9.67 years, compared with adults in G1, those in G3 had 16% (hazard ratio [HR], 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77-0.90) reduced risk of all-cause mortality, and 23% (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.67-0.89) reduced risk of CVD-specific mortality. The PAF of high (G3) vs. intermediate or low consumption of MedHi foods (G1 + G2) with all-cause and CVD-specific mortality was 3.4% and 4.3%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Consumption of foods with higher microbial concentrations is associated with a reduced risk of all-cause and CVD-specific mortality in US adults.

Poor sleep quality is an important modifiable risk factor for dementia: Population attributable fraction of poor sleep in a Brazilian population-based study.

OBJECTIVES: The populational impact of poor sleep quality and the risk of dementia is unclear. We analyzed the Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) of poor sleep quality for dementia, and its association with other two sleep parameters through self-reported and single questions collected in a large-scale Brazilian cohort (ELSI-Brazil). METHODS: A subset of the ELSI-Brazil with complete responses to sleep quality was retrieved for this study. This is a large representative sample of the Brazilian elderly population with an extensive assessment of sociodemographic and health risk variables. Prevalence of poor sleep quality was estimated according to the complex sample design, and its PAF was measured using a meta-analytic relative risk. A total of 6024 (56.3% women, mean 62.8 ± 9.5 years of age) individuals had complete responses. RESULTS: The prevalence of poor sleep quality was 24.9% (95%CI 23%-26%), and the PAF of poor sleep quality including other 10 modifiable risk factors of dementia was 52.5% in Brazil. Secondary analyses identified that sleep quality, restorative sleep and sleep drug usage varied considerably according to age ranges, race, and gender. CONCLUSIONS: Poor sleep quality is an important populational modifiable risk factor for dementia in Brazil. Targeted interventions may provide an important impact in preventing dementia in low- and middle-income countries.

Global and regional estimates of cervical cancer burden associated with human immunodeficiency virus infection from 1990 to 2019.

Previous studies reported human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) could enhance human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced cervical cancer. Therefore, the burden of cervical cancer associated with HIV across different regions and time periods need to be assessed. We aim to investigate the global burden of cervical cancer associated with HIV infection. Age standardized rates (ASRs) of cervical cancer disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in females (≥15 years old) were calculated by standardization, according the age-specific DALYs numbers extracted from GBD data set 2019. Population attributable fractions was calculated by combining the published risk ratio, with the HIV prevalence (≥15 years old) from Joint United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS), and transferred to estimate the HIV-associated cervical cancer burden. Expected annual percentage changes (EAPCs) was calculated to describe the temporal trend of ASR from 1990 to 2019. Pearson correlation analysis were conducted to assess the correlation between the ASR or EAPCs and the socio-demographic index. The worldwide DALYs ASR caused by HIV-associated cervical cancer rose from 3.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.19-5.56) in 1990 to 9.50 (95% CI: 5.66-13.79) in 2019 per 100k population. In 2019, the region with the greatest burden was Eastern and Southern Africa, with the highest DALYs of 273 900 (95% CI: 149 100-476 400) and ASR of 254.44 per 100k population (95% CI: 168.86-329.28). Notably, the Eastern Europe and Central Asia regions had the highest EAPC (14.07%) of HIV-associated DALYs ASR. Women in Eastern and Southern Africa experience the greatest burden of HIV-associated cervical cancer, while the Eastern Europe and Central Asia regions had witnessed the largest increase over the last 30 years. Prioritize the promotion of HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening for women living with HIV were crucial in these regions.

Sex-specific population attributable risk factors for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the general population: Findings from the China PEACE million persons project.

Little evidence exists regarding the sex-specific population attributable risk factors for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the Chinese general population. We used a sub-cohort of the China Patient-Centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events million persons project to evaluate the overall and sex-specific associations and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of twelve risk factors for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. 95,469 participants were included between January 2016 and December 2020. The twelve risk factors (including four socioeconomic status and eight modifiable risk factors) were collected or measured at baseline. The outcomes of the study were all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Overall, 60.7% (N = 57,971) were women, and the mean age was 54.3 ± 10.2 years. After a median of 3.52 years of follow-up, 1311 (1.4%) people died, and 362 (0.4%) people died of cardiovascular causes. Majorities of risk factors were significantly associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, and suboptimal blood pressure and low educational attainment were the two leading attributable risk factors for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. The twelve risk factors collectively explained 72.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 63.5, 79.2) and 84.0% (95% CI: 71.1, 91.1) of PAFs for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. When stratified by sex, men had more risk factors that were significantly attributable to mortality than women, whereas low educational attainment had a more pronounced impact on female cardiovascular health. This study found that the twelve risk factors collectively explained a significant proportion of PAFs for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Several sex-related disparities in the associations between risk factors and mortality were noted.

Sex- and age-specific impacts of smoking, overweight/obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus in the development of disabling dementia in a Japanese population.

BACKGROUND: Sex- and age-specific impacts of cardiovascular risk factors on the development of dementia have not been well evaluated. We investigated these impacts of smoking, overweight/obesity, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus on the risk of disabling dementia. METHODS: The study participants were 25,029 (10,134 men and 14,895 women) Japanese aged 40-74 years without disabling dementia at baseline (2008-2013). They were assessed on smoking status (non-current or current), overweight/obesity (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 and ≥30 kg/m2, respectively), hypertension (systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg, diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mmHg or any antihypertensive medication use), and diabetes mellitus (a fasting serum glucose ≥126 mg/dL, non-fasting glucose ≥200 mg/dL, hemoglobin A1c ≥6.5% by the National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program or glucose-lowering medication use) at baseline. Disabling dementia was identified as the level of care required ≥1 and cognitive disability grade ≥IIa according to the National Long-term Care Insurance Database. We used a Cox proportional regression model to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of disabling dementia according to the cardiovascular risk factors and calculated the population attributable fractions (PAFs). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.1 years, 1,322 (606 men and 716 women) developed disabling dementia. Current smoking and hypertension were associated with a higher risk of disabling dementia in both sexes, whereas overweight or obesity was not associated with the risk in either sex. Diabetes mellitus was associated with a higher risk only in women (p for sex interaction = 0.04). The significant PAFs were 13% for smoking and 14% for hypertension in men and 3% for smoking, 12% for hypertension, and 5% for diabetes mellitus in women. The total PAFs of the significant risk factors were 28% in men and 20% in women. When stratified by age, hypertension in midlife (40-64 years) was associated with the increased risk in men, while diabetes mellitus in later-life (65-74 years) was so in women. CONCLUSIONS: A substantial burden of disabling dementia was attributable to smoking, and hypertension in both sexes and diabetes mellitus in women, which may require the management of these cardiovascular risk factors to prevent dementia.

Gender differences in modifiable risk factors for hip fracture: 10-year follow-up of a prospective study of 0.5 million Chinese adults.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the incidence rates and importance of major modifiable risk factors for hip and major osteoporotic fractures in low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the age- and sex-specific incidence of hip, major osteoporotic, and any fractures and their associated risk factors in Chinese adults. METHODS: This was a prospective study of 512,715 adults, aged 30-79 years, recruited from 10 diverse areas in China from 2004 to 2008 and followed up for 10 years. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were estimated, and Cox regression was used to yield adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and population attributable fractions for risk factors. RESULTS: The incidence rates of hip fracture in Chinese adults were 5.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 5.0-5.3) per 10,000 person-years; they were higher in women than in men and increased by two- to threefold per 10-year older age. Among men, five risk factors for hip fracture, including low education (HR = 1.23; 95% CI 1.04-1.45), regular smoker (1.22, 1.03-1.45), lower weight (1.59, 1.34-1.88), alcohol drinker (1.18, 1.02-1.36), and prior fracture (1.62, 1.33-1.98), accounted for 44.3% of hip fractures. Among women, lower weight (1.30, 1.15-1.46), low physical activity (1.22, 1.10-1.35), diabetes (1.62, 1.41-1.86), prior fracture (1.54, 1.33-1.77), and self-rated poor health (1.29, 1.13-1.47) accounted for 24.9% of hip fractures. Associations of risk factors with major osteoporotic or any fractures were weaker than those with hip fractures. CONCLUSIONS: The age- and sex-specific incidence rates of hip fracture in Chinese adults were comparable with those in Western populations. Five potentially modifiable factors accounted for half of the hip fractures in men and one quarter in women.

The social cost of high sodium diet in Singapore.

High sodium (Na) diet is one of the leading behavioural risks of disease identified in the Singapore Burden of Disease Study. We aim to estimate the cost attributable to a high Na diet in Singapore in 2019 from a societal perspective by employing a prevalence-based approach in cost-of-illness studies. We extracted national-level healthcare data and population attributable fractions by sex and age. Costs included direct and indirect costs from inpatient treatment and productivity losses. In 2019, the annual societal cost attributable to a high Na diet was conservatively estimated to be USA$262 million (95 % uncertainty interval (UI) 218, 359 million). At least USA$67·8 million (95 % UI 48·4, 120 million) and USA$194 million (95 % UI 153, 274 million) could be saved on healthcare and indirect costs, respectively, if the daily Na intake of Singaporeans was reduced to an average of 3 g. Overall, males had higher costs compared with females at USA$221 million (95 % UI 174, 312 million) and USA$41·1 million (95 % UI 33·5, 61·7 million), respectively. Productivity loss from foregone wages due to premature mortality had the largest cost at USA$191 million (95 % UI 150, 271 million). CVD had the largest healthcare expenditure at USA$61·4 million (95 % UI 41·6, 113 million), driven by ischaemic heart disease at USA$41·0 million (95 % UI 21·4, 88·9 million). Our study found that reducing Na intake could reduce future healthcare expenditures and productivity losses. This result is vital for policy evaluation in a rapidly ageing society like Singapore, where the burden of diseases associated with high Na diet is expected to increase.

Trends in percentages of gestational diabetes mellitus attributable to overweight, obesity, and morbid obesity in regional Victoria: an eight-year population-based panel study.

BACKGROUND: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is the fastest growing type of diabetes in Australia with rates trebling over the past decades partially explained by rising obesity rates and maternal age among childbearing women. Percentage of GDM attributable to obesity has been documented, mostly focusing on metropolitan populations. In parts of regional (areas outside capital cities) and rural Australia where overweight, obesity and morbid obesity are more prevalent, intertwined with socioeconomic disadvantage and higher migrant communities, trends over time in adjusted percentages of GDM attributed to obesity are unknown. METHODS: In this population-based retrospective panel study, women, without pre-existing diabetes, delivering singletons between 2010 and 2017 in a tertiary regional hospital that serves 26% of Victoria's 6.5 million Australian population were eligible for inclusion. Secular trends in GDM by body mass index (BMI) and age were evaluated. The percentage of GDM that would have been prevented each year with the elimination of overweight or obesity was estimated using risk-adjusted regression-based population attributable fractions (AFp). Trends in the AFp over time were tested using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test. RESULTS: Overall 7348 women, contributing to 10,028 births were included. The age of expecting mothers, their BMI, proportion of women born overseas, and GDM incidence significantly rose over time with GDM rising from 3.5% in 2010 to 13.7% in 2017, p <  0.001, increasing in all BMI categories. The incidence was consistently highest among women with obesity (13.8%) and morbid obesity (21.6%). However, the highest relative increase was among women with BMI < 25 kg/m2, rising from 1.4% in 2010 to 7.0% in 2017. Adjusting for age, country of birth, socioeconomic status, comorbidities, antenatal and intrapartum factors, an estimated 8.6% (confidence interval (CI) 6.1-11.0%), 15.6% (95% CI 12.2-19.0%), and 19.5% (95% CI 15.3-23.6%) of GDM would have been prevented by eliminating maternal overweight, obesity, and morbid obesity, respectively. However, despite the rise in obesity over time, percentages of GDM attributable to overweight, obesity, and morbid obesity significantly dropped over time. Scenario analyses supported these findings. CONCLUSIONS: Besides increasing prevalence of obesity over time, this study suggests that GDM risk factors, other than obesity, are also increasing over time.

Population attributable fractions for risk factors and disability burden of dementia in Jiangxi Province, China: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: In view of the fact that there is no effective treatment for dementia, the number of years that dementia patients have to live with dementia will gradually increase for the rest of their lives, and the disability loss caused by dementia will increase. It is urgent to study the influence of risk factors on dementia by making use of the potential of prevention. The purpose of this study is to quantify the burden of dementia disability attributable to risk factors by assessing the population attributable fractions (PAFs) in Jiangxi Province, which is one of the regions of moderate aging process of China. METHODS: The prevalence data of nine risk factors were obtained through the Sixth National Health Service Survey in 2018, which covered 2713 older people. Levin's formula was used to calculate the PAF for each risk factor for dementia. We adjusted the PAF for communality between risk factors, and used these values to calculate overall weighted PAFs and the years lived with disability (YLDs), which were attributable to nine risk factors. RESULTS: The number of dementia cases and their proportions that can theoretically be prevented by nine identified risk factors were 111636 (99595-120877) and 66.8% (59.6-72.3), respectively. The total YLDs of dementia were estimated to be 61136 (46463-78369) (males: 36434 [24100-49330], females: 23956 [14716-34589]). Physical inactivity (11639 [8845-14920]), low social contact (9324 [7086-11952]), and hearing loss (5668 [4307-7265] were the top three contributors to dementia. CONCLUSIONS: The moderate aging areas represented by Jiangxi Province have great potential in the prevention of dementia. Targeted interventions and management of risk factors can effectively reduce the disability burden of dementia.

Population attributable fraction estimates for factors associated with different types of anaemia among women in Ethiopia: multilevel multinomial analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to identify factors for different levels of anaemia among Ethiopian women and to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF). DESIGN: This study was a detailed analysis of data of the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. Adjusted OR (AOR) with 95 % CI was computed using multilevel multinomial regression models, and the PAF were estimated using these AOR. SETTING: This study was conducted in Ethiopia. PARTICIPANTS: Women of reproductive age. RESULTS: The PAF showed that the proportion of mild anaemia cases attributable to having no formal education was 14·6 % (95 % CI 3·4, 24·5), high gravidity (≥4) was 11·2 % (95 % CI 1·2, 19·9) and currently breast-feeding was 5·2 % (95 % CI 0·0, 10·7). Similarly, the proportion of moderate-severe anaemia cases attributable to being in a rural residence was 38·1 % (95 % CI 15·9, 54·8); poorest wealth quantile, 12·6 % (95 % CI 2·9, 24·6); giving birth in the last 5 years, 10·5 % (95 % CI 2·9, 18·2) and unimproved latrine facilities, 17 % (95 % CI 0, 32·5). CONCLUSIONS: The PAF suggest that rural residency, low education, low wealth status, high parity, pregnancy and breast-feeding contribute substantially to the occurrence of anaemia among women in Ethiopia. Mild anaemia could be reduced by setting intervention strategies targeting women with low education, multigravida women and breast-feeding women, while preventing moderate-severe anaemia may require increasing income and improving living environments through the accessibility of hygienic latrines.

Incidence and associated risk factors for premature death in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study cohort, Iran.

BACKGROUND: The incidence and associated risk factors for premature death were investigated in a population-based cohort study in Iran. METHODS: A total of 7245 participants (3216 men), aged 30-70 years, were included. We conducted Cox proportional hazards models to identify the risk factors for premature death. For each risk factor, hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and population attributable fraction (PAF) were calculated. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 13.8 years, 262 premature deaths (153 in men) occurred. Underlying causes of premature deaths were cardiovascular disease (CVD) (n = 126), cancer (n = 51), road injuries (n = 15), sepsis and pneumonia (n = 9) and miscellaneous reasons (n = 61). The age-standardized incident rate of premature death was 2.35 per 1000 person years based on WHO standard population. Hypertension [HR 1.40, 95% CI (1.07-1.83)], diabetes (2.53, 1.94-3.29) and current smoking (1.58, 1.16-2.17) were significant risk factors for premature mortality; corresponding PAFs were 12.3, 22.4 and 9.2%, respectively. Overweight (body mass index (BMI): 25-29.9 kg/m2) (0.65, 0.49-0.87) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) (0.67, 0.48-0.94) were associated with decreased premature mortality. After replacing general adiposity with central adiposity, we found no significant risk for the latter (0.92, 0.71-1.18). Moreover, when we excluded current smokers, those with prevalent cancer/cardiovascular disease and those with survival of less than 3 years, the inverse association between overweight (0.59, 0.39-0.88) and obesity (0.67, 0.43-1.04), generally remained unchanged; although, diabetes still showed a significant risk (2.62, 1.84-3.72). CONCLUSIONS: Controlling three modifiable risk factors including diabetes, hypertension and smoking might potentially reduce mortality events by over 40%, and among these, prevention of diabetes should be prioritized to decrease burden of events. We didn't confirm a negative impact of overweight and obesity status on premature mortality events.

New cancer cases attributable to diet among adults aged 30-84 years in France in 2015.

This study aimed to estimate the number of new cancer cases attributable to diet among adults aged 30-84 years in France in 2015, where convincing or probable evidence of a causal association exists, and, in a secondary analysis, where at least limited but suggestive evidence of a causal association exists. Cancer cases attributable to diet were estimated assuming a 10-year latency period. Dietary intake data were obtained from the 2006 French National Nutrition and Health Survey. Counterfactual scenarios of dietary intake were based on dietary guidelines. Corresponding risk relation estimates were obtained from meta-analyses, cohort studies and one case-control study. Cancer incidence data were obtained from the French Network of Cancer Registries. Nationally, unfavourable dietary habits led to 16 930 new cancer cases, representing 5·4 % of all new cancer cases. Low intake of fruit and dietary fibre was the largest contributor to this burden, being responsible for 4787 and 4389 new cancer cases, respectively. If this is expanded to dietary component and cancer pairs with at least limited but suggestive evidence of a causal association, 36 049 new cancer cases, representing 11·6 % of all new cancer cases, were estimated to be attributable to diet. These findings suggest that unfavourable dietary habits lead to a substantial number of new cancer cases in France; however, there is a large degree of uncertainty as to the number of cancers attributable to diet, including through indirect mechanisms such as obesity, and therefore additional research is needed to determine how diet affects cancer risk.

Worldwide burden of gastric cancer in 2010 attributable to high sodium intake in 1990 and predicted attributable burden for 2030 based on exposures in 2010.

Assessing the impact that patterns of Na intake may have on gastric cancer will provide a more comprehensive estimation of Na reduction as a primary prevention approach. We aimed to estimate the proportion of gastric cancer cases that are attributable to Na intake above the recommendation by the WHO (≤2 g/d) throughout the world in 2010, as well as expected values for 2030. Population attributable fractions (PAF) were computed for 187 countries, using Na intakes in 1990 and 2010 and estimates of the association between Na intake and gastric cancer, assuming a time lag of 20 years. Median PAF ranged from 10·1% in low to 22·5 % in very high Human Development Index (HDI) countries in men (P<0·001) and from 7·2 to 16·6 %, respectively, among women (P<0·001). An increase in median PAF until 2030 is expected in most settings, except for countries classified as low HDI, in both sexes. High Na intakes account for a large proportion of gastric cancer cases, and proportions are expected to increase in almost all of the countries. Intensified efforts to diminish Na intake in virtually all populations are needed to further reduce gastric cancer burden.

Determinants of mortality status and population attributable risk fractions of the North West Province, South African site of the international PURE study.

BACKGROUND: Mortality data and comparative risk assessments from sub-Saharan Africa are limited. There is an urgent need for high quality population health surveys to be conducted, to improve the national health surveillance system. Our aim was to perform a comparative risk assesment and report on the mortality status and cause of death data of participants from a South African site of the international Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study. METHODS: 1 921 Black participants were included, with a median observational time of 13 years resulting in 21 525 person-years. We performed a comparative risk assessment considering four health status domains: locality (rural vs. urban), socio-economic status (SES) (education and employment), lifestyle factors (physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption) and prevalent diseases (human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), type 2 diabetes mellitus and hypertension). Next, population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated to determine the mortality risk attributable to modifiable determinants. RESULTS: 577 all-cause deaths occurred. Infectious diseases (28.1% of all deaths) were the most frequent cause of death, followed by cardiovascular disease (CVD) (22.4%), respiratory diseases (11.6%) and cancer (11.1%). The three main contributors to all-cause mortality were HIV infection, high SES and being underweight. HIV infection and underweight were the main contributors to infectious disease mortality and hypertension, the urban environment, and physical inactivity to CVD mortality. HIV had the highest PAF, followed by physical inactivity, alcohol and tobacco use and hypertension (for CVD mortality). CONCLUSION: This African population suffers from a quadruple burden of disease. Urban locality, high SES, prevalent disease (HIV and hypertension) and lifestyle factors (physical inactivity, tobacco and alcohol use) all contributed in varying degrees to all-cause and cause-specific mortalities. Our data confirm the public health importance of addressing HIV and hypertension, but also highlights the importance of physical inactivity, tobacco use and alcohol consumption as focal points for public health strategies to produce the most efficient mortality reduction outcomes.

Secular trends of population-attributable fractions of obesity for hypertension among US population by sex and race/ethnicity: Analysis from NHANES 1999-2018.

Obesity is a major risk factor of hypertension, therefore quantifying the contribution of obesity to hypertension is necessary. The current study aimed to investigate the changes in population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of hypertension associated with general obesity and abdominal obesity over the recent 2 decades among the US population, as well as important sub-populations. This report was performed based on national-level cross-sectional data for 46,535 adults aged 18 years and older and 20,745 children aged 8-17 from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2018. The PAFs of hypertension due to general obesity and abdominal obesity were calculated by sex, race/ethnicity, and survey year. The linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the secular trends of PAFs over the years. The prevalence of general obesity and abdominal obesity presented significantly increasing trends during the past 2 decades in the US. The PAFs of hypertension due to general obesity increased steadily from 11.9 % to 15.1 % in women with a slope of 0.38 % (95 % CI: 0.31 - 0.45 %) and from 8.4 % to 13.4 % in men with a slope of 0.46 % (95 % CI: 0.36 - 0.56 %). Similar increasing trends were also observed for the PAFs due to abdominal obesity in both women and men. Additionally, there were significantly different trends of PAFs in various races/ethnicities. Over the past 2 decades, the contributions of obesity to hypertension were gradually rising among US population, which emphasizes the importance of controlling weight to further reduce the burden of hypertension.

Temporal trends and disparities of population attributable fractions of modifiable risk factors for dementia in China: a time-series study of the China health and retirement longitudinal study (2011-2018).

Background: In China, dementia poses a significant public health challenge, exacerbated by an ageing population and lifestyle changes. This study assesses the temporal trends and disparities in the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for new-onset dementia from 2011 to 2018. Methods: We used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), covering 75,214 person-waves. We calculated PAFs for 12 MRFs identified by the Lancet Commission (including six early-to mid-life factors and six late-life factors). We also determined the individual weighted PAFs (IW-PAFs) for each risk factor. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex, socio-economic status (SES), and geographic location. Findings: The overall PAF for dementia MRFs had a slight increase from 45.36% in 2011 to 52.46% in 2018, yet this change wasn't statistically significant. During 2011-2018, the most contributing modifiable risk was low education (average IW-PAF 11.3%), followed by depression, hypertension, smoking, and physical inactivity. Over the eight-year period, IW-PAFs for risk factors like low education, hypertension, hearing loss, smoking, and air pollution showed decreasing trends, while others increased, but none of these changes were statistically significant. Sex-specific analysis revealed higher IW-PAFs for traumatic brain injury (TBI), social isolation, and depression in women, and for alcohol and smoking in men. The decline in IW-PAF for men's hearing loss were significant. Lower-income individuals had higher overall MRF PAFs, largely due to later-life factors like depression. Early-life factors, such as TBI and low education, also contributed to SES disparities. Rural areas reported higher overall MRF PAFs, driven by factors like depression, low education, and hearing loss. The study also found that the gap in MRF PAFs across different SES groups or regions either remained constant or increased over the study period. Interpretation: The study reveals a slight but non-significant increase in dementia's MRF PAF in China, underscoring the persistent relevance of these risk factors. The findings highlight the need for targeted public health strategies, considering the demographic and regional differences, to effectively tackle and reduce dementia risk in China's diverse population. Funding: This work was supported by the PKU Young Scholarship in Global Health and Development.

Association between Life's essential 8 and incident cardiovascular disease among individuals with depression: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Depression is an increasing illness worldwide that severely diminishes the quality of life. The study sought to elucidate the association of the American Heart Association's Life's Essential 8 (LE8) metrics with the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among depression participants and further quantify the related theoretical reduction of long-term CVD burden. METHODS: 20,832 participants with depression from UK-Biobank were included. LE8, including diet quality, physical activity, nicotine exposure, sleep duration, body mass index, lipids, glucose, and blood pressure, was calculated at baseline and categorized into low, medium, and high levels. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) for major cardiovascular events (MACE) was calculated using Cox models. We further quantified population attributable fractions (PAF) for CVD. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.0 years, 658 MACE were recorded. After multi-variable adjustment, compared with participants with low LE8, people with high LE8 had a decreased risk of MACE (HR, 95%CI: 0.32, 0.22-0.47), non-fatal MACE (0.39, 0.26-0.61), myocardial infarction (0.23, 0.12-0.44), and ischaemic stroke (0.52, 0.27-0.99). Overall, 50.7% (95%CI: 34.5-66.9%) of MACE and 48.0% (95%CI: 29.5-66.4%) of non-fatal MACE were attributable to the low and medium adherence to LE8 at the 5-year follow-up, respectively. Sub-optimal control of blood pressure ranked as the top contributor to all types of CVD in individuals with depression. CONCLUSIONS: Optimal adherence to LE8 was associated with lower burden of CVD in depression. Adopting a comprehensive lifestyle intervention might help further reduce CVD burden in mental disorders.

Population modifiable risk factors associated with neonatal mortality in 35 sub-Saharan Africa countries: analysis of data from demographic and health surveys.

Background: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the highest burden of neonatal mortality in the world. Identifying the most critical modifiable risk factors is imperative for reducing neonatal mortality rates. This study is the first to calculate population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for modifiable risk factors of neonatal mortality in SSA. Methods: We analysed the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys data sets from 35 SSA countries conducted between 2010 and 2022. Generalized linear latent and mixed models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). PAFs adjusted for communality were calculated using ORs and prevalence estimates for key modifiable risk factors. Subregional analyses were conducted to examine variations in modifiable risk factors for neonatal mortality across Central, Eastern, Southern, and Western SSA regions. Findings: In this study, we included 255,891 live births in the five years before the survey. The highest PAFs of neonatal mortality among singleton children were attributed to delayed initiation of breastfeeding (>1 h after birth: PAF = 23.88%; 95% CI: 15.91, 24.86), uncleaned cooking fuel (PAF = 5.27%; 95% CI: 1.41, 8.73), mother's lacking formal education (PAF = 4.34%; 95% CI: 1.15, 6.31), mother's lacking tetanus vaccination (PAF = 3.54%; 95% CI: 1.55, 4.92), and infrequent antenatal care (ANC) visits (PAF = 2.45; 95% CI: 0.76, 3.63). Together, these five modifiable risk factors were associated with 39.49% (95% CI: 21.13, 48.44) of neonatal deaths among singleton children in SSA. Our subregional analyses revealed some variations in modifiable risk factors for neonatal mortality. Notably, delayed initiation of breastfeeding consistently contributed to the highest PAFs of neonatal mortality across all four regions of SSA: Central, Eastern, Southern, and Western SSA. Interpretation: The PAF estimates in the present study indicate that a considerable proportion of neonatal deaths in SSA are preventable. We identified five modifiable risk factors that accounted for approximately 40% of neonatal deaths in SSA. The findings have policy implications. Funding: None.

Impact of Parental Mental Health and Poverty on the Health of the Next Generation: A Multi-Trajectory Analysis Using the UK Millennium Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: Exposure to parental mental ill-health and poverty in childhood impact health across the lifecourse. Both maternal and paternal mental health may be important influences, but few studies have unpicked the complex interrelationships between these exposures and family poverty for later health. METHODS: We used longitudinal data on 10,500 children from the nationally representative UK millennium cohort study. Trajectories of poverty, maternal mental health, and secondary caregiver mental health were constructed from child age of 9 months through to 14 years. We assessed the associations of these trajectories with mental health outcomes at the age of 17 years. Population-attributable fractions were calculated to quantify the contribution of caregivers' mental health problems and poverty to adverse outcomes at the country level. RESULTS: We identified five distinct trajectories. Compared with children with low poverty and good parental mental health, those who experienced poverty and poor primary or secondary caregiver mental health (53%) had worse outcomes. Children exposed to both persistent poverty and poor caregiver mental health were at markedly increased risk of socioemotional behavioural problems (aOR 4.2; 95% CI 2.7-6.7), mental health problems (aOR 2.5; CI 1.6-3.9), and cognitive disability (aOR 1.7; CI 1.1-2.5). We estimate that 40% of socioemotional behavioural problems at the age of 17 were attributable to persistent parental caregivers' mental health problems and poverty. DISCUSSION: More than half of children growing up in the UK are persistently exposed to either one or both of poor caregiver mental health and family poverty. The combination of these exposures is strongly associated with adverse health outcomes in the next generation.