Kinetic Analysis of Protein Stability Reveals Age-Dependent Degradation.

Do young and old protein molecules have the same probability to be degraded? We addressed this question using metabolic pulse-chase labeling and quantitative mass spectrometry to obtain degradation profiles for thousands of proteins. We find that >10% of proteins are degraded non-exponentially. Specifically, proteins are less stable in the first few hours of their life and stabilize with age. Degradation profiles are conserved and similar in two cell types. Many non-exponentially degraded (NED) proteins are subunits of complexes that are produced in super-stoichiometric amounts relative to their exponentially degraded (ED) counterparts. Within complexes, NED proteins have larger interaction interfaces and assemble earlier than ED subunits. Amplifying genes encoding NED proteins increases their initial degradation. Consistently, decay profiles can predict protein level attenuation in aneuploid cells. Together, our data show that non-exponential degradation is common, conserved, and has important consequences for complex formation and regulation of protein abundance.

Effects of lockdowns in shaping socioeconomic behaviors.

Lockdowns were implemented to reduce the transmission of the COVID-19 virus. However, it is unclear how severely curtailed physical interaction shapes individual behaviors that are considered vital for socioeconomic development. In this exploratory study, we investigate the behavior of college students who experienced a strict campus-wide lockdown and those who did not. Employing a combination of experimental and survey methodologies, we elicit students' behavioral variables, which are then integrated with administrative records from the university. We find that those exposed to the lockdown were more likely to trust others and be honest; however, their creativity was lower. Exposure to the lockdown was not found to significantly affect students' trustworthiness, risk preferences, or competitiveness. A follow-up study reveals that the lower creativity among students may be attributed to reduced communication frequency with friends during the lockdown, mediating the lockdown's impact. Conversely, the effects of the lockdown on trust and honesty may operate through a direct pathway, independent of changes in daily activities during the lockdown. Further analysis reveals a gender-dependent trend, with lockdowns exerting a more pronounced influence on male students than their female counterparts. These results underscore the consequences of lockdowns and advocate for enhanced support networks, emphasizing the importance of communicating with friends in similar circumstances.

Limited intraspecific variation in drought resistance along a pronounced tropical rainfall gradient.

Assessing within-species variation in response to drought is crucial for predicting species' responses to climate change and informing restoration and conservation efforts, yet experimental data are lacking for the vast majority of tropical tree species. We assessed intraspecific variation in response to water availability across a strong rainfall gradient for 16 tropical tree species using reciprocal transplant and common garden field experiments, along with measurements of gene flow and key functional traits linked to drought resistance. Although drought resistance varies widely among species in these forests, we found little evidence for within-species variation in drought resistance. For the majority of functional traits measured, we detected no significant intraspecific variation. The few traits that did vary significantly between drier and wetter origins of the same species all showed relationships opposite to expectations based on drought stress. Furthermore, seedlings of the same species originating from drier and wetter sites performed equally well under drought conditions in the common garden experiment and at the driest transplant site. However, contrary to expectation, wetter-origin seedlings survived better than drier-origin seedlings under wetter conditions in both the reciprocal transplant and common garden experiment, potentially due to lower insect herbivory. Our study provides the most comprehensive picture to date of intraspecific variation in tropical tree species' responses to water availability. Our findings suggest that while drought plays an important role in shaping species composition across moist tropical forests, its influence on within-species variation is limited.

Family ideals in an era of low fertility.

Taking stock of individuals' perceived family ideals is particularly important in the current moment given unprecedented fertility declines and the diversification of households in advanced industrial societies. Study participants in urban China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, Italy, Spain, and Norway were asked to evaluate vignettes describing families whose characteristics vary on ten dimensions. In contrast to previous studies that focused on a single dimension, such as fertility ideals or gender roles, this holistic vignette approach identifies the relative importance of each dimension. Multilevel regression analysis reveals both expected and unexpected findings. Parenthood remains a positive ideal, but the number of children does not matter once other family dimensions are considered, a potentially important finding in light of conventional wisdom regarding the two-children ideal. When evaluating families with at least one child, respondents tend to positively evaluate more traditional arrangements, including valuing marriage relative to cohabitation and, particularly, divorce. Also, in addition to financial resources, good communication between immediate and extended family members, as well as maintaining respect in the larger community, are highly salient attributes of an ideal family. Notwithstanding some important cross-national differences, egalitarian gender roles and avoiding work-family conflict are also valued positively. Overall, even as the study reveals some notable variations between societies, respondents across countries identify similar components of an ideal family.

Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally.

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events-the most common duration of drought-globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function-aboveground net primary production (ANPP)-was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

Are self-reported fertility preferences biased? Evidence from indirect elicitation methods.

Desired fertility measures are routinely collected and used by researchers and policy makers, but their self-reported nature raises the possibility of reporting bias. In this paper, we test for the presence of such bias by comparing responses to direct survey questions with indirect questions offering a varying, randomized, degree of confidentiality to respondents in a socioeconomically diverse sample of Nigerian women ([Formula: see text]). We find that women report higher fertility preferences when asked indirectly, but only when their responses afford them complete confidentiality, not when their responses are simply blind to the enumerator. Our results suggest that there may be fewer unintended pregnancies than currently thought and that the effectiveness of family planning policy targeting may be weakened by the bias we uncover. We conclude with suggestions for future work on how to mitigate reporting bias.

Illusory interparty disagreement: Partisans agree on what hate speech to censor but do not know it.

Whether and when to censor hate speech are long-standing points of contention in the US. The latest iteration of these debates entails grappling with content regulation on social media in an age of intense partisan polarization. But do partisans disagree about what types of hate speech to censor on social media or do they merely differ on how much hate speech to censor? And do they understand out-party censorship preferences? We examine these questions in a nationally representative conjoint survey experiment (participant N = 3,357; decision N = 40,284). We find that, although Democrats support more censorship than Republicans, partisans generally agree on what types of hate speech are most deserving of censorship in terms of the speech's target, source, and severity. Despite this substantial cross-party agreement, partisans mistakenly believe that members of the other party prioritize protecting different targets of hate speech. For example, a major disconnect between the two parties is that Democrats overestimate and Republicans underestimate the other party's willingness to censor speech targeting Whites. We conclude that partisan differences on censoring hate speech are largely based on free speech values and misperceptions rather than identity-based social divisions.

Causally estimating the effect of YouTube's recommender system using counterfactual bots.

In recent years, critics of online platforms have raised concerns about the ability of recommendation algorithms to amplify problematic content, with potentially radicalizing consequences. However, attempts to evaluate the effect of recommenders have suffered from a lack of appropriate counterfactuals-what a user would have viewed in the absence of algorithmic recommendations-and hence cannot disentangle the effects of the algorithm from a user's intentions. Here we propose a method that we call "counterfactual bots" to causally estimate the role of algorithmic recommendations on the consumption of highly partisan content on YouTube. By comparing bots that replicate real users' consumption patterns with "counterfactual" bots that follow rule-based trajectories, we show that, on average, relying exclusively on the YouTube recommender results in less partisan consumption, where the effect is most pronounced for heavy partisan consumers. Following a similar method, we also show that if partisan consumers switch to moderate content, YouTube's sidebar recommender "forgets" their partisan preference within roughly 30 videos regardless of their prior history, while homepage recommendations shift more gradually toward moderate content. Overall, our findings indicate that, at least since the algorithm changes that YouTube implemented in 2019, individual consumption patterns mostly reflect individual preferences, where algorithmic recommendations play, if anything, a moderating role.

Social competition drives collective action to reduce informal waste burning in Uganda.

Improving urban air quality is a pressing challenge in the Global South. A key source of air pollution is the informal burning of household waste. Reducing informal burning requires governments to develop formal systems for waste disposal and for residents to adopt new disposal behaviors. Using a randomized experiment, we show that social competitions between pairs of neighborhoods in Nansana municipality, Uganda, galvanized leadership and inspired collective action to reduce informal burning. All 44 neighborhoods in the study received a public health campaign, while 22 treated neighborhoods were paired and competed to reduce waste burning over an 8-mo period. Treated neighborhoods showed a 24 percent reduction (95% CI: 11 to 35 percent) in waste burning relative to control neighborhoods at the end of the competition period. There is no evidence that treated neighborhoods experienced a rebound in waste burning several months after the competitions. Community leaders reported greater effort in coordinating residents and more pride in their neighborhood when assigned to the competition treatment. These results suggest that creating focal points for leadership and collective action can be an effective and low-cost strategy to address policy problems that require broad participation and costly behavior change.

Causal message-passing for experiments with unknown and general network interference.

Randomized experiments are a powerful methodology for data-driven evaluation of decisions or interventions. Yet, their validity may be undermined by network interference. This occurs when the treatment of one unit impacts not only its outcome but also that of connected units, biasing traditional treatment effect estimations. Our study introduces a framework to accommodate complex and unknown network interference, moving beyond specialized models in the existing literature. Our framework, termed causal message-passing, is grounded in high-dimensional approximate message-passing methodology. It is tailored for multiperiod experiments and is particularly effective in settings with many units and prevalent network interference. The framework models causal effects as a dynamic process where a treated unit's impact propagates through the network via neighboring units until equilibrium is reached. This approach allows us to approximate the dynamics of potential outcomes over time, enabling the extraction of valuable information before treatment effects reach equilibrium. Utilizing causal message-passing, we introduce a practical algorithm to estimate the total treatment effect, defined as the impact observed when all units are treated compared to the scenario where no unit receives treatment. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach across five numerical scenarios, each characterized by a distinct interference structure.

The causal effect of mental health on labor market outcomes: The case of stress-related mental disorders following a human-made disaster.

As disasters increase due to climate change, population density, epidemics, and technology, information is needed about postdisaster consequences for people's mental health and how stress-related mental disorders affect multiple spheres of life, including labor-market attachment. We tested the causal hypothesis that individuals who developed stress-related mental disorders as a consequence of their disaster exposure experienced subsequent weak labor-market attachment and poor work-related outcomes. We leveraged a natural experiment in an instrumental variables model, studying a 2004 fireworks factory explosion disaster that precipitated the onset of stress-related disorders (posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression) among individuals in the local community (N = 86,726). We measured labor-market outcomes using longitudinal population-level administrative data: sick leave, unemployment benefits, early retirement pension, and income from wages from 2007 to 2010. We found that individuals who developed a stress-related disorder after the disaster were likely to go on sickness benefit, both in the short- and long-term, were likely to use unemployment benefits and to lose wage income in the long term. Stress-related disorders did not increase the likelihood of early retirement. The natural experiment design minimized the possibility that omitted confounders biased these effects of mental health on work outcomes. Addressing the mental health and employment needs of survivors after a traumatic experience may improve their labor-market outcomes and their nations' economic outputs.

Accelerated biological aging six decades after prenatal famine exposure.

To test the hypothesis that early-life adversity accelerates the pace of biological aging, we analyzed data from the Dutch Hunger Winter Families Study (DHWFS, N = 951). DHWFS is a natural-experiment birth-cohort study of survivors of in-utero exposure to famine conditions caused by the German occupation of the Western Netherlands in Winter 1944 to 1945, matched controls, and their siblings. We conducted DNA methylation analysis of blood samples collected when the survivors were aged 58 to quantify biological aging using the DunedinPACE, GrimAge, and PhenoAge epigenetic clocks. Famine survivors had faster DunedinPACE, as compared with controls. This effect was strongest among women. Results were similar for GrimAge, although effect-sizes were smaller. We observed no differences in PhenoAge between survivors and controls. Famine effects were not accounted for by blood-cell composition and were similar for individuals exposed early and later in gestation. Findings suggest in-utero undernutrition may accelerate biological aging in later life.

Interaction structure constrains the emergence of conventions in group communication.

Real-world communication frequently requires language producers to address more than one comprehender at once, yet most psycholinguistic research focuses on one-on-one communication. As the audience size grows, interlocutors face new challenges that do not arise in dyads. They must consider multiple perspectives and weigh multiple sources of feedback to build shared understanding. Here, we ask which properties of the group's interaction structure facilitate successful communication. We used a repeated reference game paradigm in which directors instructed between one and five matchers to choose specific targets out of a set of abstract figures. Across 313 games (N = 1,319 participants), we manipulated several key constraints on the group's interaction, including the amount of feedback that matchers could give to directors and the availability of peer interaction between matchers. Across groups of different sizes and interaction constraints, describers produced increasingly efficient utterances and matchers made increasingly accurate selections. Critically, however, we found that smaller groups and groups with less-constrained interaction structures ("thick channels") showed stronger convergence to group-specific conventions than large groups with constrained interaction structures ("thin channels"), which struggled with convention formation. Overall, these results shed light on the core structural factors that enable communication to thrive in larger groups.

A diverse portfolio of marine protected areas can better advance global conservation and equity.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely used for ocean conservation, yet the relative impacts of various types of MPAs are poorly understood. We estimated impacts on fish biomass from no-take and multiple-use (fished) MPAs, employing a rigorous matched counterfactual design with a global dataset of >14,000 surveys in and around 216 MPAs. Both no-take and multiple-use MPAs generated positive conservation outcomes relative to no protection (58.2% and 12.6% fish biomass increases, respectively), with smaller estimated differences between the two MPA types when controlling for additional confounding factors (8.3% increase). Relative performance depended on context and management: no-take MPAs performed better in areas of high human pressure but similar to multiple-use in remote locations. Multiple-use MPA performance was low in high-pressure areas but improved significantly with better management, producing similar outcomes to no-take MPAs when adequately staffed and appropriate use regulations were applied. For priority conservation areas where no-take restrictions are not possible or ethical, our findings show that a portfolio of well-designed and well-managed multiple-use MPAs represents a viable and potentially equitable pathway to advance local and global conservation.

Crowdsourcing as a tool for creating effective nudges: An example for financial oversubscription.

Creating effective nudges, or interventions that encourage people to make choices that increase their welfare, is difficult to execute well. Recent work on megastudies, massive field experiments that test many interventions simultaneously, reveals that nudge effectiveness both varies widely and is difficult for experts to predict. We propose an Iterative Crowdsourcing Procedure, which uses insights from members of the target population to generate and preselect nudges prior to testing them in a field experiment. This technique can supplement existing methods or stand alone as a way to generate conditions for testing in a high-quality field experiment. We test the effectiveness of this method in addressing a challenge to effective financial management: consumer oversubscription. We first document that people have more subscriptions than they think they have and that enhancing subscription awareness makes people want to cancel some subscriptions. We then use our crowdsourcing procedure to motivate people toward subscription awareness in a field experiment (N = 4,412,113) with a large bank. We find that the crowdsourced nudges outperform those generated by the bank, demonstrating that the Iterative Crowdsourcing Procedure is a useful way to generate effective nudges.

Unraveling controversies over civic honesty measurement: An extended field replication in China.

Cohn et al. (2019) conducted a wallet drop experiment in 40 countries to measure "civic honesty around the globe," which has received worldwide attention but also sparked controversies over using the email response rate as the sole metric of civic honesty. Relying on the lone measurement may overlook cultural differences in behaviors that demonstrate civic honesty. To investigate this issue, we conducted an extended replication study in China, utilizing email response and wallet recovery to assess civic honesty. We found a significantly higher level of civic honesty in China, as measured by the wallet recovery rate, than reported in the original study, while email response rates remained similar. To resolve the divergent results, we introduce a cultural dimension, individualism versus collectivism, to study civic honesty across diverse cultures. We hypothesize that cultural differences in individualism and collectivism could influence how individuals prioritize actions when handling a lost wallet, such as contacting the wallet owner or safeguarding the wallet. In reanalyzing Cohn et al.'s data, we found that email response rates were inversely related to collectivism indices at the country level. However, our replication study in China demonstrated that the likelihood of wallet recovery was positively correlated with collectivism indicators at the provincial level. Consequently, relying solely on email response rates to gauge civic honesty in cross-country comparisons may neglect the vital individualism versus collectivism dimension. Our study not only helps reconcile the controversy surrounding Cohn et al.'s influential field experiment but also furnishes a fresh cultural perspective to evaluate civic honesty.

Reminders, but not monetary incentives, increase COVID-19 booster uptake.

Despite substantially decreasing the risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19, COVID-19 booster vaccination rates remain low around the world. A key question for public health agencies is how to increase booster vaccination rates, particularly among high-risk groups. We conducted a large preregistered randomized controlled trial (with 57,893 study subjects) in a county health system in northern California to test the impact of personal reminder messages and small financial incentives of $25 on booster vaccination rates. We found that reminders increased booster vaccination rates within 2 wk by 0.86 percentage points (P = 0.000) or nearly 33% off the control mean of 2.65%. Monetary incentives had no additional impact on vaccination rates. The results highlight the potential of low-cost targeted messages, but not small financial incentives, to increase booster vaccination rates.

Climate change framing and innovator attention: Evidence from an email field experiment.

Drawing the attention of innovators to climate change is important for green innovation. We report an email field experiment with MIT using messages about the impact of climate change to invite innovators (SBIR grantees) to apply to a technology competition. We vary our messages on the time frame and scale of the human cost of climate change across scientifically valid scenarios. Innovator attention (clicks) is sensitive to climate change messaging. These changes in clicks also predict higher application rates. The response varies by individual characteristics such as location-based exposure to climate change risks and whether innovators have climate-related innovations. Finally, using a structural model of innovator attention, we provide estimates of the implied discount rate of time and the elasticity of attention to lives at stake.

Quantifying the potential persuasive returns to political microtargeting.

Much concern has been raised about the power of political microtargeting to sway voters' opinions, influence elections, and undermine democracy. Yet little research has directly estimated the persuasive advantage of microtargeting over alternative campaign strategies. Here, we do so using two studies focused on U.S. policy issue advertising. To implement a microtargeting strategy, we combined machine learning with message pretesting to determine which advertisements to show to which individuals to maximize persuasive impact. Using survey experiments, we then compared the performance of this microtargeting strategy against two other messaging strategies. Overall, we estimate that our microtargeting strategy outperformed these strategies by an average of 70% or more in a context where all of the messages aimed to influence the same policy attitude (Study 1). Notably, however, we found no evidence that targeting messages by more than one covariate yielded additional persuasive gains, and the performance advantage of microtargeting was primarily visible for one of the two policy issues under study. Moreover, when microtargeting was used instead to identify which policy attitudes to target with messaging (Study 2), its advantage was more limited. Taken together, these results suggest that the use of microtargeting-combining message pretesting with machine learning-can potentially increase campaigns' persuasive influence and may not require the collection of vast amounts of personal data to uncover complex interactions between audience characteristics and political messaging. However, the extent to which this approach confers a persuasive advantage over alternative strategies likely depends heavily on context.

Digital public health interventions at scale: The impact of social media advertising on beliefs and outcomes related to COVID vaccines.

Public health organizations increasingly use social media advertising campaigns in pursuit of public health goals. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of about $40 million of social media advertisements that were run and experimentally tested on Facebook and Instagram, aimed at increasing COVID-19 vaccination rates in the first year of the vaccine roll-out. The 819 randomized experiments in our sample were run by 174 different public health organizations and collectively reached 2.1 billion individuals in 15 languages. We find that these campaigns are, on average, effective at influencing self-reported beliefs-shifting opinions close to 1% at baseline with a cost per influenced person of about $3.41. Combining this result with an estimate of the relationship between survey outcomes and vaccination rates derived from observational data yields an estimated cost per additional vaccination of about $5.68. There is further evidence that campaigns are especially effective at influencing users' knowledge of how to get vaccines. Our results represent, to the best of our knowledge, the largest set of online public health interventions analyzed to date.