Pragmatic Trial of Hospitalization Rate in Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of effective therapies for patients with chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension (the kidney-dysfunction triad), the results of large-scale trials examining the implementation of guideline-directed therapy to reduce the risk of death and complications in this population are lacking. METHODS: In this open-label, cluster-randomized trial, we assigned 11,182 patients with the kidney-dysfunction triad who were being treated at 141 primary care clinics either to receive an intervention that used a personalized algorithm (based on the patient's electronic health record [EHR]) to identify patients and practice facilitators to assist providers in delivering guideline-based interventions or to receive usual care. The primary outcome was hospitalization for any cause at 1 year. Secondary outcomes included emergency department visits, readmissions, cardiovascular events, dialysis, and death. RESULTS: We assigned 71 practices (enrolling 5690 patients) to the intervention group and 70 practices (enrolling 5492 patients) to the usual-care group. The hospitalization rate at 1 year was 20.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 19.7 to 21.8) in the intervention group and 21.1% (95% CI, 20.1 to 22.2) in the usual-care group (between-group difference, 0.4 percentage points; P = 0.58). The risks of emergency department visits, readmissions, cardiovascular events, dialysis, or death from any cause were similar in the two groups. The risk of adverse events was also similar in the trial groups, except for acute kidney injury, which was observed in more patients in the intervention group (12.7% vs. 11.3%). CONCLUSIONS: In this pragmatic trial involving patients with the triad of chronic kidney disease, type 2 diabetes, and hypertension, the use of an EHR-based algorithm and practice facilitators embedded in primary care clinics did not translate into reduced hospitalization at 1 year. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others; ICD-Pieces ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02587936.).

Prevalence, distribution, and hepatic fibrosis burden of the different subtypes of steatotic liver disease in primary care settings.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: In relation to the new umbrella terminology for steatotic liver disease (SLD), we aimed to elucidate the prevalence, distribution, and clinical characteristics of the SLD subgroups in the primary care setting. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We retrospectively collected data from 2535 individuals who underwent magnetic resonance elastography and MRI proton density fat fraction during health checkups in 5 primary care health promotion clinics. We evaluated the presence of cardiometabolic risk factors according to predefined criteria and divided all the participants according to the new SLD classification. The prevalence of SLD was 39.13% in the total cohort, and 95.77% of the SLD cases had metabolic dysfunction (one or more cardiometabolic risk factors). The prevalence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) was 29.51%, with those of metabolic dysfunction and alcohol associated steatotic liver disease (MetALD) and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) at 7.89% and 0.39%, respectively. According to the old criteria, the prevalence of NAFLD was 29.11%, and 95.80% of the NAFLD cases fulfilled the new criteria for MASLD. The distribution of SLD subtypes was highest for MASLD, at 75.40%, followed by MetALD at 20.06%, cryptogenic SLD at 3.33%, and ALD at 1.01%. The MetALD group had a significantly higher mean magnetic resonance elastography than the MASLD or ALD group. CONCLUSION: Almost all the patients with NAFLD met the new criteria for MASLD. The fibrosis burden of the MetALD group was higher than those of the MASLD and ALD groups.

In men with LUTS in primary care, a standardized intervention reduced symptoms by a small amount at 12 mo.

SOURCE CITATION: Drake MJ, Worthington J, Frost J, et al. Treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms in men in primary care using a conservative intervention: cluster randomised controlled trial. BMJ. 2023;383:e075219. 37967894.

In primary care, second-line IBS therapy with amitriptyline vs. placebo reduced symptoms at 6 mo.

SOURCE CITATION: Ford AC, Wright-Hughes A, Alderson SL, et al; ATLANTIS trialists. Amitriptyline at low-dose and titrated for irritable bowel syndrome as second-line treatment in primary care (ATLANTIS): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial. Lancet. 2023;402:1773-1785. 37858323.

A manifesto for improving cancer detection: four key considerations when implementing innovations across the interface of primary and secondary care.

Improving cancer outcomes through innovative cancer detection initiatives in primary care is an international policy priority. There are unique implementation challenges to the roll-out and scale-up of different innovations, requiring synchronisation between national policy levers and local implementation strategies. We draw on implementation science to highlight key considerations when seeking to sustainably embed cancer detection initiatives within health systems and clinical practice. Points of action include considering the implications of change on the current configuration of responsibility for detecting cancer; investing in understanding how to adapt systems to support innovations; developing strategies to address inequity when planning innovation implementation; and anticipating and making efforts to mitigate the unintended consequences of innovation. We draw on examples of contemporary cancer detection issues to illustrate how to apply these recommendations to practice.

Algorithms for Early Detection of Silent Liver Fibrosis in the Primary Care Setting.

More than one-third of the adult world population has steatotic liver disease (SLD), with a few percent of individuals developing cirrhosis after decades of silent liver fibrosis accumulation. Lack of systematic early detection causes most patients to be diagnosed late, after decompensation, when treatment has limited effect and survival is poor. Unfortunately, no isolated screening test in primary care can sufficiently predict advanced fibrosis from SLD. Recent efforts, therefore, combine several parameters into screening algorithms, to increase diagnostic accuracy. Besides patient selection, for example, by specific characteristics, algorithms include nonpatented or patented blood tests and liver stiffness measurements using elastography-based techniques. Algorithms can be composed as a set of sequential tests, as recommended by most guidelines on primary care pathways. Future use of algorithms that are easy to interpret, cheap, and semiautomatic will improve the management of patients with SLD, to the benefit of global health care systems.

Integration of a fasting-mimicking diet programme in primary care for type 2 diabetes reduces the need for medication and improves glycaemic control: a 12-month randomised controlled trial.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact on metabolic control of periodic use of a 5-day fasting-mimicking diet (FMD) programme as an adjunct to usual care in people with type 2 diabetes under regular primary care surveillance. METHODS: In this randomised, controlled, assessor-blinded trial, people with type 2 diabetes using metformin as the only glucose-lowering drug and/or diet for glycaemic control were randomised to receive 5-day cycles of an FMD monthly as an adjunct to regular care by their general practitioner or to receive regular care only. The primary outcomes were changes in glucose-lowering medication (as reflected by the medication effect score) and HbA1c levels after 12 months. Moreover, changes in use of glucose-lowering medication and/or HbA1c levels in individual participants were combined to yield a clinically relevant outcome measure ('glycaemic management'), which was categorised as improved, stable or deteriorated after 1 year of follow-up. Several secondary outcome measures were also examined, including changes in body weight. RESULTS: One hundred individuals with type 2 diabetes, age 18-75 years, BMI ≥27 kg/m2, were randomised to the FMD group (n=51) or the control group (n=49). Eight FMD participants and ten control participants were lost to follow-up. Intention-to-treat analyses, using linear mixed models, revealed adjusted estimated treatment effects for the medication effect score (-0.3; 95% CI -0.4, -0.2; p<0.001), HbA1c (-3.2 mmol/mol; 95% CI -6.2, -0.2 and -0.3%; 95% CI -0.6, -0.0; p=0.04) and body weight (-3.6 kg; 95% CI -5.2, -2.1; p<0.001) at 12 months. Glycaemic management improved in 53% of participants using FMD vs 8% of control participants, remained stable in 23% vs 33%, and deteriorated in 23% vs 59% (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Integration of a monthly FMD programme in regular primary care for people with type 2 diabetes who use metformin as the only glucose-lowering drug and/or diet for glycaemic control reduces the need for glucose-lowering medication, improves HbA1c despite the reduction in medication use, and appears to be safe in routine clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03811587 FUNDING: The project was co-funded by Health~Holland, Top Sector Life Sciences & Health, the Dutch Diabetes Foundation and L-Nutra.

Antibiotic Prescribing Patterns for Respiratory Tract Illnesses Following the Conclusion of an Education and Feedback Intervention in Primary Care.

BACKGROUND: A study previously conducted in primary care practices found that implementation of an educational session and peer comparison feedback was associated with reduced antibiotic prescribing for respiratory tract diagnoses (RTDs). Here, we assess the long-term effects of this intervention on antibiotic prescribing following cessation of feedback. METHODS: RTD encounters were grouped into tiers based on antibiotic prescribing appropriateness: tier 1, almost always indicated; tier 2, possibly indicated; and tier 3, rarely indicated. A χ2 test was used to compare prescribing between 3 time periods: pre-intervention, intervention, and post-intervention (14 months following cessation of feedback). A mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association between period and prescribing. RESULTS: We analyzed 260 900 RTD encounters from 29 practices. Antibiotic prescribing was more frequent in the post-intervention period than in the intervention period (28.9% vs 23.0%, P < .001) but remained lower than the 35.2% pre-intervention rate (P < .001). In multivariable analysis, the odds of prescribing were higher in the post-intervention period than the intervention period for tier 2 (odds ratio [OR], 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10-1.30; P < .05) and tier 3 (OR, 1.20; 95% CI: 1.12-1.30) indications but was lower compared to the pre-intervention period for each tier (OR, 0.66; 95% CI: 0.59-0.73 tier 2; OR, 0.68; 95% CI: 0.61-0.75 tier 3). CONCLUSIONS: The intervention effects appeared to last beyond the intervention period. However, without ongoing provider feedback, there was a trend toward increased prescribing. Future studies are needed to determine optimal strategies to sustain intervention effects.

Three-year survival of breast cancer patients attending a one-stop breast care clinic nested within a primary care health facility in sub-Saharan Africa-Zambia.

In Zambia, women with breast symptoms travel through multiple levels of the healthcare system before obtaining a definitive diagnosis. To eradicate this critical barrier to care, we nested a novel breast specialty service platform inside a large public-sector primary healthcare facility in Lusaka, Zambia to offer clinical breast examination, breast ultrasound, and ultrasound-guided core needle biopsy in a one-stop format, tightly linked to referral for treatment. The objective of the study was to determine the life expectancy and survival outcomes of a prospective cohort of women diagnosed with breast cancer who were attended to and followed up at the clinic. The effect of breast cancer stage on prognosis was determined by estimating stage-specific crude survival using the Kaplan-Meier method. Survival analysis was used to estimate mean lifespan according to age and stage at diagnosis. We enrolled 302 women with histologically confirmed breast cancer. The overall 3-year survival was 73%. An increase in patients presenting with early breast cancer and improvements in their survival were observed. Women with early-stage breast cancer had a lifespan similar to the general population, while loss of life expectancy was significant at more advanced stages of disease. Our findings suggest that implementing efficient breast care services at the primary care level can avert a substantial proportion of breast cancer-related deaths. The mitigating factor appears to be stage of disease at the time of diagnosis, the cause of which is multifactorial, with the most influential being delays in the referral process.

Trends in weight gain recorded in English primary care before and during the Coronavirus-19 pandemic: An observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and rapid weight gain are established risk factors for noncommunicable diseases and have emerged as independent risk factors for severe disease following Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection. Restrictions imposed to reduce COVID-19 transmission resulted in profound societal changes that impacted many health behaviours, including physical activity and nutrition, associated with rate of weight gain. We investigated which clinical and sociodemographic characteristics were associated with rapid weight gain and the greatest acceleration in rate of weight gain during the pandemic among adults registered with an English National Health Service (NHS) general practitioner (GP) during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: With the approval of NHS England, we used the OpenSAFELY platform inside TPP to conduct an observational cohort study of routinely collected electronic healthcare records. We investigated changes in body mass index (BMI) values recorded in English primary care between March 2015 and March 2022. We extracted data on 17,742,365 adults aged 18 to 90 years old (50.1% female, 76.1% white British) registered with an English primary care practice. We estimated individual rates of weight gain before (δ-prepandemic) and during (δ-pandemic) the pandemic and identified individuals with rapid weight gain (>0.5 kg/m2/year) in each period. We also estimated the change in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic period (δ-change = δ-pandemic-δ-prepandemic) and defined extreme accelerators as the 10% of individuals with the greatest increase in their rate of weight gain (δ-change ≥1.84 kg/m2/year) between these periods. We estimated associations with these outcomes using multivariable logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), and ethnicity. P-values were generated in regression models. The median BMI of our study population was 27.8 kg/m2, interquartile range (IQR) [24.3, 32.1] in 2019 (March 2019 to February 2020) and 28.0 kg/m2, IQR [24.4, 32.6] in 2021. Rapid pandemic weight gain was associated with sex, age, and IMD. Male sex (male versus female: adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) [0.76, 0.76], p < 0.001), older age (e.g., 50 to 59 years versus 18 to 29 years: aOR 0.60, 95% CI [0.60, 0.61], p < 0.001]); and living in less deprived areas (least-deprived-IMD-quintile versus most-deprived: aOR 0.77, 95% CI [0.77, 0.78] p < 0.001) reduced the odds of rapid weight gain. Compared to white British individuals, all other ethnicities had lower odds of rapid pandemic weight gain (e.g., Indian versus white British: aOR 0.69, 95% CI [0.68, 0.70], p < 0.001). Long-term conditions (LTCs) increased the odds, with mental health conditions having the greatest effect (e.g., depression (aOR 1.18, 95% CI [1.17, 1.18], p < 0.001)). Similar characteristics increased odds of extreme acceleration in the rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. However, changes in healthcare activity during the pandemic may have introduced new bias to the data. CONCLUSIONS: We found female sex, younger age, deprivation, white British ethnicity, and mental health conditions were associated with rapid pandemic weight gain and extreme acceleration in rate of weight gain between the prepandemic and pandemic periods. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate sociodemographic, physical, and mental health characteristics when formulating research, policies, and interventions targeting BMI in the period of post pandemic service restoration and in future pandemic planning.

The impact of primary health care on AIDS incidence and mortality: A cohort study of 3.4 million Brazilians.

BACKGROUND: Primary Health Care (PHC) is essential for effective, efficient, and more equitable health systems for all people, including those living with HIV/AIDS. This study evaluated the impact of the exposure to one of the largest community-based PHC programs in the world, the Brazilian Family Health Strategy (FHS), on AIDS incidence and mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A retrospective cohort study carried out in Brazil from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2015. We conducted an impact evaluation using a cohort of 3,435,068 ≥13 years low-income individuals who were members of the 100 Million Brazilians Cohort, linked to AIDS diagnoses and deaths registries. We evaluated the impact of FHS on AIDS incidence and mortality and compared outcomes between residents of municipalities with low or no FHS coverage (unexposed) with those in municipalities with 100% FHS coverage (exposed). We used multivariable Poisson regressions adjusted for all relevant municipal and individual-level demographic, socioeconomic, and contextual variables, and weighted with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). We also estimated the FHS impact by sex and age and performed a wide range of sensitivity and triangulation analyses; 100% FHS coverage was associated with lower AIDS incidence (rate ratio [RR]: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.68 to 0.84) and mortality (RR: 0.68, 95%CI: 0.56 to 0.82). FHS impact was similar between men and women, but was larger in people aged ≥35 years old both for incidence (RR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.53 to 0.72) and mortality (RR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.72). The absence of important confounding variables (e.g., sexual behavior) is a key limitation of this study. CONCLUSIONS: AIDS should be an avoidable outcome for most people living with HIV today and our study shows that FHS coverage could significantly reduce AIDS incidence and mortality among low-income populations in Brazil. Universal access to comprehensive healthcare through community-based PHC programs should be promoted to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of ending AIDS by 2030.

Predictive value of abnormal blood tests for detecting cancer in primary care patients with nonspecific abdominal symptoms: A population-based cohort study of 477,870 patients in England.

BACKGROUND: Identifying patients presenting with nonspecific abdominal symptoms who have underlying cancer is a challenge. Common blood tests are widely used to investigate these symptoms in primary care, but their predictive value for detecting cancer in this context is unknown. We quantify the predictive value of 19 abnormal blood test results for detecting underlying cancer in patients presenting with 2 nonspecific abdominal symptoms. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to the National Cancer Registry, Hospital Episode Statistics and Index of Multiple Deprivation, we conducted a population-based cohort study of patients aged ≥30 presenting to English general practice with abdominal pain or bloating between January 2007 and October 2016. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV), sensitivity, and specificity for cancer diagnosis (overall and by cancer site) were calculated for 19 abnormal blood test results co-occurring in primary care within 3 months of abdominal pain or bloating presentations. A total of 9,427/425,549 (2.2%) patients with abdominal pain and 1,148/52,321 (2.2%) with abdominal bloating were diagnosed with cancer within 12 months post-presentation. For both symptoms, in both males and females aged ≥60, the PPV for cancer exceeded the 3% risk threshold used by the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence for recommending urgent specialist cancer referral. Concurrent blood tests were performed in two thirds of all patients (64% with abdominal pain and 70% with bloating). In patients aged 30 to 59, several blood abnormalities updated a patient's cancer risk to above the 3% threshold: For example, in females aged 50 to 59 with abdominal bloating, pre-blood test cancer risk of 1.6% increased to: 10% with raised ferritin, 9% with low albumin, 8% with raised platelets, 6% with raised inflammatory markers, and 4% with anaemia. Compared to risk assessment solely based on presenting symptom, age and sex, for every 1,000 patients with abdominal bloating, assessment incorporating information from blood test results would result in 63 additional urgent suspected cancer referrals and would identify 3 extra cancer patients through this route (a 16% relative increase in cancer diagnosis yield). Study limitations include reliance on completeness of coding of symptoms in primary care records and possible variation in PPVs if extrapolated to healthcare settings with higher or lower rates of blood test use. CONCLUSIONS: In patients consulting with nonspecific abdominal symptoms, the assessment of cancer risk based on symptoms, age and sex alone can be substantially enhanced by considering additional information from common blood test results. Male and female patients aged ≥60 presenting to primary care with abdominal pain or bloating warrant consideration for urgent cancer referral or investigation. Further cancer assessment should also be considered in patients aged 30 to 59 with concurrent blood test abnormalities. This approach can detect additional patients with underlying cancer through expedited referral routes and can guide decisions on specialist referrals and investigation strategies for different cancer sites.

Improving the management of chronic kidney disease in primary care by enhancing laboratory reports with additional information and follow-up procedures.

Identifying people at risk for progressive chronic kidney disease and connecting them with recommended care is crucial for providing timely and optimal treatment. The ASSIST-CKD (A programme to Spread eGFR [estimated glomerular filtration rate] graph Surveillance for the early identification, Support and Treatment of people with progressive CKD [chronic kidney disease]) trial evaluated the effect of graphical eGFR reporting to primary care physicians on late presentation to a nephrologist in the United Kingdom. Trial data were obtained from the UK Renal Registry. Although the results were neutral, the data generated from the ASSIST-CKD trial are informative and provide useful estimates of the intervention effect. The trial also provides valuable insights into the challenges of implementing complex interventions in busy health care environments, which can be used to guide the designs of future interventions.

Identifying patients with undiagnosed small intestinal neuroendocrine tumours in primary care using statistical and machine learning: model development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Neuroendocrine tumours (NETs) are increasing in incidence, often diagnosed at advanced stages, and individuals may experience years of diagnostic delay, particularly when arising from the small intestine (SI). Clinical prediction models could present novel opportunities for case finding in primary care. METHODS: An open cohort of adults (18+ years) contributing data to the Optimum Patient Care Research Database between 1st Jan 2000 and 30th March 2023 was identified. This database collects de-identified data from general practices in the UK. Model development approaches comprised logistic regression, penalised regression, and XGBoost. Performance (discrimination and calibration) was assessed using internal-external cross-validation. Decision analysis curves compared clinical utility. RESULTS: Of 11.7 million individuals, 382 had recorded SI NET diagnoses (0.003%). The XGBoost model had the highest AUC (0.869, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.841-0.898) but was mildly miscalibrated (slope 1.165, 95% CI: 1.088-1.243; calibration-in-the-large 0.010, 95% CI: -0.164 to 0.185). Clinical utility was similar across all models. DISCUSSION: Multivariable prediction models may have clinical utility in identifying individuals with undiagnosed SI NETs using information in their primary care records. Further evaluation including external validation and health economics modelling may identify cost-effective strategies for case finding for this uncommon tumour.

A survey of patient practices regarding leftover antibiotics reveals a potential source of antibiotic overuse.

Taking leftover prescribed antibiotics without consulting a healthcare professional is problematic for the efficacy, safety, and antibiotic stewardship. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of adult patients in English and Spanish between January 2020 and June 2021 in six safety-net primary care clinics and two private emergency departments. We assessed the reasons for stopping prescribed antibiotics early and what was done with the leftover antibiotics. Additionally, we determined 1) prior leftover antibiotic use, 2) intention for future use of leftover antibiotics, and 3) sociodemographic factors. Of 564 survey respondents (median age of 51), 45% (251/564) reported a history of stopping antibiotics early, with 171/409 (42%) from safety net and 80/155 (52%) from the private clinics. The most common reason for stopping prescribed antibiotics early was "because you felt better" (194/251, 77%). Among survey participants, prior use of leftover antibiotics was reported by 149/564 (26%) and intention for future use of leftover antibiotics was reported by 284/564 (51%). In addition, higher education was associated with a higher likelihood of prior leftover use. Intention for future use of leftover antibiotics was more likely for those with transportation or language barriers to medical care and less likely for respondents with private insurance. Stopping prescribed antibiotics early was mostly ascribed to feeling better, and saving remaining antibiotics for future use was commonly reported. To curb nonprescription antibiotic use, all facets of the leftover antibiotic use continuum, from overprescribing to hoarding, need to be addressed.

Laboratory practice is central to earlier myeloma diagnosis: Utilizing a primary care diagnostic tool and laboratory guidelines integrated into haematology services.

Treatment advances have greatly improved survival, but myeloma is among the worst of all cancers for delayed diagnosis, causing serious morbidities and early deaths. This delay is largely because the symptom profile of myeloma has very low specificity, and in primary care, myeloma is rare. However, initiating the journey to diagnosis simply requires considering myeloma and sending blood to test for monoclonal immunoglobulin. Laboratory tests reliably detect monoclonal immunoglobulin, which is present in 99% of myeloma cases, so why do health care systems have such a problem with delayed diagnosis? The Myeloma UK early diagnosis programme has brought together diverse expertise to investigate this problem, and this article was prepared by the programme's working group for laboratory best practice. It reviews evidence for test requesting, analysis and reporting, for which there is large variation in practice across the United Kingdom. It presents a 'GP Myeloma diagnostic tool' and how it can be integrated into laboratory practice alongside a laboratory best practice tool. It proposes improved requesting and integration with haematology services for reporting and interpretation. Here the laboratory has a central role in creating efficient and cost-effective pathways for appropriate and timely bone marrow examination for myeloma diagnosis.

Quantifying sustained health system benefits of primary care-based integrated disease management for COPD: a 6-year interrupted time series study.

BACKGROUND: Severe exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a trajectory-changing life event for patients and a major contributor to health system costs. This study evaluates the real-world impact of a primary care, integrated disease management (IDM) programme on acute health service utilisation (HSU) in the Canadian health system. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis using retrospective health administrative data, comparing monthly HSU event rates 3 years prior to and 3 years following the implementation of COPD IDM. Primary outcomes were COPD-related hospitalisation and emergency department (ED) visits. Secondary outcomes included hospital bed days and all-cause HSU. RESULTS: There were 2451 participants. COPD-related and all-cause HSU rates increased in the 3 years prior to IDM implementation. With implementation, there was an immediate decrease (month 1) in COPD-related hospitalisation and ED visit rates of -4.6 (95% CI: -7.76 to -1.39) and -6.2 (95% CI: -11.88, -0.48) per 1000 participants per month, respectively, compared with the counterfactual control group. After 12 months, COPD-related hospitalisation rates decreased: -9.1 events per 1000 participants per month (95% CI: -12.72, -5.44) and ED visits -19.0 (95% CI: -25.50, -12.46). This difference nearly doubled by 36 months. All-cause HSU also demonstrated rate reductions at 12 months, hospitalisation was -10.2 events per 1000 participants per month (95% CI: -15.79, -4.44) and ED visits were -30.4 (95% CI: -41.95, -18.78). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of COPD IDM in a primary care setting was associated with a changed trajectory of COPD-related and all-cause HSU from an increasing year-on-year trend to sustained long-term reductions. This highlights a substantial real-world opportunity that may improve health system performance and patient outcomes.

Understanding the causes of missingness in primary care: a realist review.

BACKGROUND: Although missed appointments in healthcare have been an area of concern for policy, practice and research, the primary focus has been on reducing single 'situational' missed appointments to the benefit of services. Little attention has been paid to the causes and consequences of more 'enduring' multiple missed appointments in primary care and the role this has in producing health inequalities. METHODS: We conducted a realist review of the literature on multiple missed appointments to identify the causes of 'missingness.' We searched multiple databases, carried out iterative citation-tracking on key papers on the topic of missed appointments and identified papers through searches of grey literature. We synthesised evidence from 197 papers, drawing on the theoretical frameworks of candidacy and fundamental causation. RESULTS: Missingness is caused by an overlapping set of complex factors, including patients not identifying a need for an appointment or feeling it is 'for them'; appointments as sites of poor communication, power imbalance and relational threat; patients being exposed to competing demands, priorities and urgencies; issues of travel and mobility; and an absence of choice or flexibility in when, where and with whom appointments take place. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to address missingness at policy and practice levels should be theoretically informed, tailored to patients experiencing missingness and their identified needs and barriers; be cognisant of causal domains at multiple levels and address as many as practical; and be designed to increase safety for those seeking care.

Comparing the clinical practice and prescribing safety of locum and permanent doctors: observational study of primary care consultations in England.

BACKGROUND: Temporary doctors, known as locums, are a key component of the medical workforce in the NHS but evidence on differences in quality and safety between locum and permanent doctors is limited. We aimed to examine differences in the clinical practice, and prescribing safety for locum and permanent doctors working in primary care in England. METHODS: We accessed electronic health care records (EHRs) for 3.5 million patients from the CPRD GOLD database with linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics from 1st April 2010 to 31st March 2022. We used multi-level mixed effects logistic regression to compare consultations with locum and permanent GPs for several patient outcomes including general practice revisits; prescribing of antibiotics; strong opioids; hypnotics; A&E visits; emergency hospital admissions; admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions; test ordering; referrals; and prescribing safety indicators while controlling for patient and practice characteristics. RESULTS: Consultations with locum GPs were 22% more likely to involve a prescription for an antibiotic (OR = 1.22 (1.21 to 1.22)), 8% more likely to involve a prescription for a strong opioid (OR = 1.08 (1.06 to 1.09)), 4% more likely to be followed by an A&E visit on the same day (OR = 1.04 (1.01 to 1.08)) and 5% more likely to be followed by an A&E visit within 1 to 7 days (OR = 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08)). Consultations with a locum were 12% less likely to lead to a practice revisit within 7 days (OR = 0.88 (0.87 to 0.88)), 4% less likely to involve a prescription for a hypnotic (OR = 0.96 (0.94 to 0.98)), 15% less likely to involve a referral (OR = 0.85 (0.84 to 0.86)) and 19% less likely to involve a test (OR = 0.81 (0.80 to 0.82)). We found no evidence that emergency admissions, ACSC admissions and eight out of the eleven prescribing safety indicators were different if patients were seen by a locum or a permanent GP. CONCLUSIONS: Despite existing concerns, the clinical practice and performance of locum GPs did not appear to be systematically different from that of permanent GPs. The practice and performance of both locum and permanent GPs is likely shaped by the organisational setting and systems within which they work.

Consistency, completeness and external validity of ethnicity recording in NHS primary care records: a cohort study in 25 million patients' records at source using OpenSAFELY.

BACKGROUND: Ethnicity is known to be an important correlate of health outcomes, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, where some ethnic groups were shown to be at higher risk of infection and adverse outcomes. The recording of patients' ethnic groups in primary care can support research and efforts to achieve equity in service provision and outcomes; however, the coding of ethnicity is known to present complex challenges. We therefore set out to describe ethnicity coding in detail with a view to supporting the use of this data in a wide range of settings, as part of wider efforts to robustly describe and define methods of using administrative data. METHODS: We describe the completeness and consistency of primary care ethnicity recording in the OpenSAFELY-TPP database, containing linked primary care and hospital records in > 25 million patients in England. We also compared the ethnic breakdown in OpenSAFELY-TPP with that of the 2021 UK census. RESULTS: 78.2% of patients registered in OpenSAFELY-TPP on 1 January 2022 had their ethnicity recorded in primary care records, rising to 92.5% when supplemented with hospital data. The completeness of ethnicity recording was higher for women than for men. The rate of primary care ethnicity recording ranged from 77% in the South East of England to 82.2% in the West Midlands. Ethnicity recording rates were higher in patients with chronic or other serious health conditions. For each of the five broad ethnicity groups, primary care recorded ethnicity was within 2.9 percentage points of the population rate as recorded in the 2021 Census for England as a whole. For patients with multiple ethnicity records, 98.7% of the latest recorded ethnicities matched the most frequently coded ethnicity. Patients whose latest recorded ethnicity was categorised as Other were most likely to have a discordant ethnicity recording (32.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Primary care ethnicity data in OpenSAFELY is present for over three quarters of all patients, and combined with data from other sources can achieve a high level of completeness. The overall distribution of ethnicities across all English OpenSAFELY-TPP practices was similar to the 2021 Census, with some regional variation. This report identifies the best available codelist for use in OpenSAFELY and similar electronic health record data.