Unequal climate impacts on global values of natural capital.

Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity1. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits2,3. However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being4. Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses.

Managing government debt.

To construct a stochastic version of [R. J. Barro, J. Polit. Econ. 87, 940-971 (1979)] normative model of tax rates and debt/GDP dynamics, we add risks and markets for trading them along lines suggested by [K. J. Arrow, Rev. Econ. Stud. 31, 91-96 (1964)] and [R. J. Shiller, Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks (OUP, Oxford, 1994)]. These modifications preserve Barro's prescriptions that a government should keep its debt-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and tax rate constant over time and also prescribe that the government insure its primary surplus risk by selling or buying the same number of shares of a Shiller macro security each period.

Regime shifts, trends, and variability of lake productivity at a global scale.

Lakes are often described as sentinels of global change. Phenomena like lake eutrophication, algal blooms, or reorganization in community composition belong to the most studied ecosystem regime shifts. However, although regime shifts have been well documented in several lakes, a global assessment of the prevalence of regime shifts is still missing, and, more in general, of the factors altering stability in lake status, is missing. Here, we provide a first global assessment of regime shifts and stability in the productivity of 1,015 lakes worldwide using trophic state index (TSI) time series derived from satellite imagery. We find that 12.8% of the lakes studied show regime shifts whose signatures are compatible with tipping points, while the number of detected regime shifts from low to high TSI has increased over time. Although our results suggest an overall stable picture for global lake dynamics, the limited instability signatures do not mean that lakes are insensitive to global change. Modeling the interaction between lake climatic, geophysical, and socioeconomic features and their stability properties, we find that the probability of a lake experiencing a tipping point increases with human population density in its catchment, while it decreases as the gross domestic product of that population increases. Our results show how quantifying lake productivity dynamics at a global scale highlights socioeconomic inequalities in conserving natural environments.

The societal responses to COVID-19: Evidence from the G7 countries.

This paper provides a picture of how societies in the G7 countries have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our point of departure is to examine the effects of the pandemic in terms of four fundamental normative sources for well-being: Solidarity (S; willingness for social cooperation), Agency (A; empowerment to shape one's prospects through one's own efforts), GDP (G), and Environmental Performance (E)-SAGE for short. The normative foundations of SAGE are communitarianism, classical liberalism, materialistic utilitarianism, and ecoethics. We find that although G and E responded predictably and uniformly to the pandemic (such as G declining and carbon emissions improving), the societal responses were strikingly different. Societies that are cohesive and empowered (high S and A) may be expected to cope with the pandemic better than those that are fragmented and disempowered (low S and A). Furthermore, the pandemic has had diverse effects on S and A; while some societies became cohering and empowering (rising S and A), others became fragmenting and disempowering (falling S and A), and yet others became fragmenting and empowering. We also show that most G7 countries experienced greater tribalization (measured as the difference between inward S and outward S) during the pandemic. These trends are a matter of concern since they suggest that the willingness and perceived ability to address collective challenges collectively have waned. The analysis also suggests that governments' social policies may have an important role to play alongside economic and health policies in coping with the pandemic.

The effects of selected neglected tropical diseases on economic performance at the macrolevel in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) such as leprosy, lymphatic filariasis (LF), schistosomiasis and onchocerciasis are endemic in several African countries. These diseases can lead to severe pain and permanent disability, which can negatively affect the economic productivity of the affected person(s), and hence resulting into low economic performance at the macrolevel. Nonetheless, empirical evidence of the effects of these NTDs on economic performance at the macrolevel is sparse. This study therefore investigates the effects of the above-mentioned NTDs on economic performance at the macrolevel in Africa. METHODS: The study employs a panel design with data comprising 24 to 45 African countries depending on the NTD in question, over the period, 2002 to 2019. Gross domestic product (GDP) is used as the proxy for economic performance (Dependent variable) and the prevalence of the above-mentioned NTDs are used as the main independent variables. The random effects (RE), fixed effects (FE) and the instrumental variable fixed effects (IVFE) panel data regressions are used as estimation techniques. RESULTS: We find that, an increase in the prevalence of the selected NTDs is associated with a fall in economic performance in the selected African countries, irrespective of the estimation technique used. Specifically, using the IVFE regression estimates, we find that a percentage increase in the prevalence of leprosy, LF, schistosomiasis and onchocerciasis is associated with a reduction in economic performance by 0.43%, 0.24%, 0.28% and 0.36% respectively, at either 1% or 5% level of significance. CONCLUSION: The findings highlight the need to increase attention and bolster integrated efforts or measures towards tackling these diseases in order to curb their deleterious effects on economic performance. Such measures can include effective mass drug administration (MDA), enhancing access to basic drinking water and sanitation among others.

Impact of health spending on hospitalization rates in Baltic countries: a comparative analysis.

INTRODUCTION: This study examines the association between healthcare indicators and hospitalization rates in three high-income European countries, namely Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, from 2015 to 2020. METHOD: We used a sex-stratified generalized additive model (GAM) to investigate the impact of select healthcare indicators on hospitalization rates, adjusted by general economic status-i.e., gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. RESULTS: Our findings indicate a consistent decline in hospitalization rates over time for all three countries. The proportion of health expenditure spent on hospitals, the number of physicians and nurses, and hospital beds were not statistically significantly associated with hospitalization rates. However, changes in the number of employed medical doctors per 10,000 population were statistically significantly associated with changes of hospitalization rates in the same direction, with the effect being stronger for males. Additionally, higher GDP per capita was associated with increased hospitalization rates for both males and females in all three countries and in all models. CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between healthcare spending and declining hospitalization rates was not statistically significant, suggesting that the healthcare systems may be shifting towards primary care, outpatient care, and on prevention efforts.

A comprehensive analysis of key factors' impact on environmental performance: Evidence from Globe by novel super learner algorithm.

This study aims to analyze comprehensively the impact of different economic and demographic factors, which affect economic development, on environmental performance. In this context, the study considers the Environmental Performance Index as the response variable, uses GDP per capita, tariff rate, tax burden, government expenditure, inflation, unemployment, population, income tax rate, public debt, FDI inflow, and corporate tax rate as the explanatory variables, examines 181 countries, performs a novel Super Learner (SL) algorithm, which includes a total of six machine learning (ML) algorithms, and uses data for the years 2018, 2020, and 2022. The results demonstrate that (i) the SL algorithm has a superior capacity with regard to other ML algorithms; (ii) gross domestic product per capita is the most crucial factor in the environmental performance followed by tariff rates, tax burden, government expenditure, and inflation, in order; (iii) among all, the corporate tax rate has the lowest importance on the environmental performance followed by also foreign direct investment, public debt, income tax rate, population, and unemployment; (iv) there are some critical thresholds, which imply that the impact of the factors on the environmental performance change according to these barriers. Overall, the study reveals the nonlinear impact of the variables on environmental performance as well as their relative importance and critical threshold. Thus, the study provides policymakers valuable insights in re-formulating their environmental policies to increase environmental performance. Accordingly, various policy options are discussed.

Ecological security and agricultural production in the Arab League: Is financial development moderating the interaction?

The jeopardizing of ecological security due to the detrimental effects of human activities necessitates the adoption of various actions to reduce ecological intensity. Though some studies have explored the moderating impact of financial development (FND) towards achieving ecological security, in Arab World it has not been thoroughly investigated. Against this backdrop, we investigate combined role of agricultural production (AFP), gross domestic product (GDP), energy consumption, population, direct and moderating impacts of FND on ecological intensity for a panel of 12 Arab League member states from 1995 to 2021. The empirical outcomes unveiled that AFP and GDP have U-shaped nexus with ecological intensity. It posits that at early stages of AFP, ecological intensity is reduced to a certain level, beyond which higher AFPhinders ecological security supporting the evidence against the Borlaug hypothesis. Our findings further unfolded that environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis does not hold for the selected Arab League member states, denoting that real GDP has a U-shaped relationship with ecological intensity. Further findings confirm that energy consumption induces ecological deterioration in the absence of its interaction with FND, along with the interaction term. The causality results largely support these outcomes. Based on these findings, Arab League's climate-related policies should further explore FND to drive energy transition and environmentally friendly measures.

Evidence and Decision-Making.

Today, every country struggles to provide adequate health care to its citizens. Globally, an average of $8.3 trillion or 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) is annually spent on health services. In 2019, the USA spent nearly 18% ($3.2 trillion) of its GDP on health care, projected to reach $6.2 trillion by 2028.

Effects of official and unofficial environmental regulations on environmental quality: Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China.

Due to the increasing impact of climate change, there is a need to examine the effect of environmental regulation on environmental quality. Consequently, we examine the nonlinear and mediation effects of environmental regulation on environmental quality using panel data of 45 major cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China, from 2013 to 2020. Environmental regulation is divided into official and unofficial environmental regulations according to its formality. The results indicate that an increase of official and unofficial environmental regulations can promote the improvement of environmental quality. In fact, the positive effect of environmental regulation on cities with better environmental quality is greater than that of cities with poorer environmental quality. The implementation of both official and unofficial environmental regulations can improve environmental quality better than the single implementation of either official environmental regulation or unofficial environmental regulation. There are full mediation effects of Gross Domestic Product per capita and technological progress in the positive effects of official environmental regulation on environmental quality. There are also partial mediation effects of technological progress and industrial structure in the positive effects of unofficial environmental regulation on environmental quality. This study assesses the policy effectiveness of environmental regulation and determines the underlying mechanism between environmental regulation and environmental quality to provide a reference for other countries regarding environmental improvement.

Are LMICs Achieving the Lancet Commission Global Benchmark for Surgical Volumes? A Systematic Review.

INTRODUCTION: The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery (LCoGS) set the benchmark of 5000 procedures per 100,000 population annually to meet surgical needs adequately. This systematic review provides an overview of the last ten years of surgical volumes in Low and Middle- Income-Countries (LMICs). METHODOLOGY: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane, and EMBASE databases for studies from LMICs addressing surgical volume. The number of surgeries performed per 100,000 population was estimated. We used cesarean sections, hernia, and laparotomies as index cases for the surgical capacities of the country. Their proportions to total surgical volumes were estimated. The association of country-specific surgical volumes and the proportion of index cases with its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita was analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 26 articles were included in this review. In LMICs, on average, 877 surgeries were performed per 100,000 population. The proportion of cesarean sections was found to be high in all LMICs, with an average of 30.1% of the total surgeries, followed by hernia (16.4%) and laparotomy (5.1%). The overall surgical volumes increased as the GDP per capita increased. The proportions of cesarean section and hernia to total surgical volumes decreased with increased GDP per capita. Significant heterogeneity was found in the methodologies to assess surgical volumes, and inconsistent reporting hindered comparison between countries. CONCLUSION: Most LMICs have surgical volumes below the LCoGS benchmark of 5000 procedures per 100,000 population, with an average of 877 surgeries. The surgical volume increased while the proportions of hernia and cesarean sections reduced with increased GDP per capita. In the future, it's essential to apply uniform and reproducible data collection methods for obtaining multinational data that can be more accurately compared.

Attracting adolescents to become doctors and nurses: differential importance of personal and environmental factors in 61 economies.

BACKGROUND: Doctors and nurses play a fundamental role in maintaining global health systems and achieving universal health care coverage. However, significant shortages persist, and little is known about the popularity of these careers among young people in various economies or the relative impact of personal inputs and contextual factors. METHODS: Using data from the large-scale Programme of International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018, we showed the recent distribution of adolescents' medical (doctor) and nursing career expectations in 61 economies. With multilevel logistic and hierarchical linear regression, we examined the relative importance of economic indicators, health work conditions, and personal background factors in affecting adolescents' health career expectations. RESULTS: Approximately 11% of adolescents expected to be doctors in each economy, while only 2% expected to be nurses. Adolescents were attracted to health professions mainly by system-level favourable conditions (accounting for 1/3 variance), including (a) government health expenditure beyond that expected gross domestic product (GDP); (b) a safe working environment for doctors in wealthy nations; and (c) high salaries for nurses in less-developed economies. In contrast, adolescents' background (gender, social status, and academic ability) was less influential, explaining only 10% of the differences. CONCLUSIONS: In the technological and digital era, high-ability students are equally competitive for emerging careers other than doctors and nurses. In developing countries, a high salary package and societal respect are enough to attract adolescents to nursing careers. In contrast, for developed countries, extra expenditures beyond regular GDP allocation and a safe work environment are crucial in attracting adolescents to become doctors. Salary may effectively attract international-trained doctors and nurses, but the work environment will likely emerge as an essential factor in retaining migrants in their positions. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: No human participants were involved in this study.

Valuing maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health for societal progress - Going beyond the economic orthodoxy of gross domestic product.

AIM: In view of the long-standing recognition that gross domestic product (GDP) does not capture the unremunerated work largely conducted by women upon which societal well-being depends, to discuss the implications for GDP of maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health (MNCAH), and its influences on health, well-being and prosperity across the life course and across generations. METHODS: A wide-ranging discussion of the informal think-tank The Venice Forum was held over two days, with inputs from invited experts in person and online. RESULTS: There was consensus that a strong case could be made for inclusion of unremunerated work largely conducted by women as a positive contribution to GDP in view of its impact on future health and prosperity, and conversely exclusion from GDP of outputs from industries which harm health. CONCLUSION: Taken with the current challenges from COVID, climate change and conflict, there is a compelling need to redefine economic progress through equitable models and metrics that incorporate short-/medium-/long-term societal value of activities that improve MNCAH.

The rise of prosociality in fiction preceded democratic revolutions in Early Modern Europe.

The English and French Revolutions represent a turning point in history, marking the beginning of the modern rise of democracy. Recent advances in cultural evolution have put forward the idea that the early modern revolutions may be the product of a long-term psychological shift, from hierarchical and dominance-based interactions to democratic and trust-based relationships. In this study, we tested this hypothesis by analyzing theater plays during the early modern period in England and France. We found an increase in cooperation-related words over time relative to dominance-related words in both countries. Furthermore, we found that the accelerated rise of cooperation-related words preceded both the English Civil War (1642) and the French Revolution (1789). Finally, we found that rising per capita gross domestic product (GDPpc) generally led to an increase in cooperation-related words. These results highlight the likely role of long-term psychological and economic changes in explaining the rise of early modern democracies.

Mortality by road transport injury in Brazilian municipalities between 2000 and 2018.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate patterns of mortality by road transport injury (RTI) in Brazilian municipalities, focused on deaths of motorcyclists, between 2000 and 2018, and their relation with population size and economic status. STUDY DESIGN: This was an ecological epidemiological study with a descriptive and analytical nature. METHODS: The age-standardized RTI mortality rates were calculated for the Brazilian municipalities, referring to the 3-year periods of 2000/2002 (T1), 2009/2011 (T2), and 2016/2018 (T3). The rates were stratified according to macroregion and population size and were compared in terms of percentage variation from one 3-year period to another. The Moran Global and Local indices were used in the spatial point-pattern analysis of the rates. To verify the association with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the Spearman correlation coefficient was applied. RESULTS: A decline in RTI mortality rates was found between 2000 and 2018, with the most significant declines observed in municipalities from the South and Southeast regions of Brazil. However, increases were observed among motorcyclists. Clusters of municipalities were detected, which presented high mortality rates among the motorcyclists in the Northeast region and in some states of the North and Midwest regions. The mortality rates showed a negative correlation with the GDP per capita of the Brazilian municipalities. CONCLUSIONS: Although there were decreases in RTI mortality rates between 1990 and 2018, there was a significant increase in deaths among motorcyclists, especially in the Northeast, North, and Midwest regions of the country. Such differences can be explained by unequal growth in the size of the motorcycle fleet in those regions, by less law enforcement capability, and by the implementation of educational actions.

Modeling the impact of innovation in marine energy generation-related technologies on carbon dioxide emissions in South Korea.

South Korea has invested extensively in developing revolutionary marine and ocean technologies to accomplish renewable energy goals. Despite that, the available literature offers no insight into the environmental benefits of innovation in marine energy generation, distribution, or transmission-related technologies (IMET). This study examines the nexus between carbon dioxide emissions (CO2e) and IMET in South Korea (1990Q1-2018Q4). Control variables include international collaboration in green technology development (ICGD), gross domestic product (per capita) (GDPPC), expansionary commercial policy (ECP), and renewable energy use (REC). First, the findings validated the long-run relationship among ICGD, GDPPC, ECP, REC, IMET, and CO2e. Second, the findings asserted that increasing IMET assisted in the generation of low-carbon renewable energy, thereby contributing to the improvement of environmental quality. Third, the estimates revealed that an increase in GDPPC and ECP was positively associated with an upsurge in CO2e. Fourth, the data depicted that ICGD facilitated co-green technologies development, which de-escalated CO2e. Fifth, REC was negatively associated with a decrease in CO2e. Based on current estimates, this article recommended that governments implement policies that encourage companies and academia to participate in IMET to promote the green economy.

Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Index of Ecological Footprint.

This paper aims to contribute to the growing body of research literature on assessing environmental efficiency by introducing a new key performance indicator (KPIs) in more complete and dependable aspects of ecological footprint indices. For this purpose, the DEA model considering three inputs (energy consumption, labor force, and capital stock), one desirable output (GDP), and different undesirable outputs (CO2 emissions, ecological footprint indicators) are applied to 27 OECD countries from 2000 to 2017. According to the results, Norway, Luxemburg, and United Kingdom are the most environmentally efficient countries in terms of environmental efficiency and ecological footprint efficiency. On the other hand, the lowest environmental and ecological footprint efficiencies were in countries like Lithuania, Slovak, Czech, Estonia, and the USA. In addition, these nations fare poorly regarding their carbon footprint and farmland efficiency. In further detail, Lithuania, South Korea, Portugal, and Spain have a critical status in fishing ground efficiency, while the forest area efficiency is very acute in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Czech.

The relationships between income, life satisfaction and emotional well-being in European countries differing in wealth.

The aim of this study is to investigate whether income has different relationships to subjective well-being in richer countries compared to poorer ones. We report analyses based on interview data collected in the European Social Survey (n = 72,574) that examine how income relates to life satisfaction (LS) and emotional well-being (EWB) in 28 European countries, varying in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Our results indicate that the within-country correlations of income with LS and EWB decrease as GDP per capita increases. Partial correlations controlling for EWB are positive but do not vary with GDP per capita, whereas partial correlations controlling for LS vary inversely with GDP per capita. We hypothesise that the invariant income-LS relationships result from effects of relative income on social comparisons, while the varying income-EWB relationships result from the negative impacts of time scarcity in richer countries and the buffering of negative experiences in poorer ones.