Predictive value of inflammatory markers for cancer diagnosis in primary care: a prospective cohort study using electronic health records.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Early identification of cancer in primary care is important and challenging. This study examined the diagnostic utility of inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate and plasma viscosity) for cancer diagnosis in primary care. METHODS: Cohort study of 160,000 patients with inflammatory marker testing in 2014, plus 40,000 untested matched controls, using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), with Cancer Registry linkage. Primary outcome was one-year cancer incidence. RESULTS: Primary care patients with a raised inflammatory marker have a one-year cancer incidence of 3.53% (95% CI 3.37-3.70), compared to 1.50% (1.43-1.58) in those with normal inflammatory markers, and 0.97% (0.87-1.07) in untested controls. Cancer risk is greater with higher inflammatory marker levels, with older age and in men; risk rises further when a repeat test is abnormal but falls if it normalises. Men over 50 and women over 60 with raised inflammatory markers have a cancer risk which exceeds the 3% NICE threshold for urgent investigation. Sensitivities for cancer were 46.1% for CRP, 43.6% ESR and 49.7% for PV. CONCLUSION: Cancer should be considered in patients with raised inflammatory markers. However, inflammatory markers have a poor sensitivity for cancer and are therefore not useful as 'rule-out' test.