Evaluation of risk prediction scores for adults hospitalized with COVID-19 in a highly-vaccinated population, Aotearoa New Zealand 2022.
IJID Reg
; 12: 100424, 2024 Sep.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-39281192
ABSTRACT
Objectives:
COVID-19 severity prediction scores need further validation due to evolving COVID-19 illness. We evaluated existing COVID-19 risk prediction scores in Aotearoa New Zealand, including for Maori and Pacific peoples who have been inequitably affected by COVID-19.Methods:
We conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 from January to May 2022, including all Maori and Pacific patients, and every second non-Maori, non-Pacific (NMNP) patient to achieve equal analytic power by ethnic grouping. We assessed the accuracy of existing severity scores (4C Mortality, CURB-65, PRIEST, and VACO) to predict death in the hospital or within 28 days.Results:
Of 2319 patients, 582 (25.1%) identified as Maori, 914 (39.4%) as Pacific, and 862 (37.2%) as NMNP. There were 146 (6.3%, 95% confidence interval 5.4-7.4%) deaths, with a predicted probability of death higher than observed mortality for VACO (10.4%), modified PRIEST (15.1%) and 4C mortality (15.5%) scores, but lower for CURB-65 (4.5%). C-statistics (95% CI) of severity scores were 4C mortality Maori 0.82 (0.75, 0.88), Pacific 0.87 (0.83, 0.90), NMNP 0.90 (0.86, 0.93); CURB-65 Maori 0.83 (0.69, 0.92), Pacific 0.87 (0.82, 0.91), NMNP 0.86 (0.80, 0.91); modified PRIEST Maori 0.85 (0.79, 0.90), Pacific 0.81 (0.76, 0.86), NMNP 0.83 (0.78, 0.87); and VACO Maori 0.79 (0.75, 0.83), Pacific 0.71 (0.58, 0.82), NMNP 0.78 (0.73, 0.83).Conclusions:
Following re-calibration, existing risk prediction scores accurately predicted mortality.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Idioma:
En
Revista:
IJID Reg
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Nova Zelândia