Regional ozone impacts of increased natural gas use in the Texas power sector and development in the Eagle Ford shale.

The combined emissions and air quality impacts of electricity generation in the Texas grid and natural gas production in the Eagle Ford shale were estimated at various natural gas price points for the power sector. The increased use of natural gas in the power sector, in place of coal-fired power generation, drove reductions in average daily maximum 8 h ozone concentration of 0.6-1.3 ppb in northeastern Texas for a high ozone episode used in air quality planning. The associated increase in Eagle Ford upstream oil and gas production nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions caused an estimated local increase, in south Texas, of 0.3-0.7 ppb in the same ozone metric. In addition, the potential ozone impacts of Eagle Ford emissions on nearby urban areas were estimated. On the basis of evidence from this work and a previous study on the Barnett shale, the combined ozone impact of increased natural gas development and use in the power sector is likely to vary regionally and must be analyzed on a case by case basis.

Establishing policy relevant background (PRB) ozone concentrations in the United States.

Policy Relevant Background (PRB) ozone concentrations are defined by the United States (U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as those concentrations that would occur in the U.S. in the absence of anthropogenic emissions in continental North America (i.e., the U.S, Canada, and Mexico). Estimates of PRB ozone have had an important role historically in the EPA's human health and welfare risk analyses used in establishing National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). The margin of safety for the protection of public health in the ozone rulemaking process has been established from human health risks calculated based on PRB ozone estimates. Sensitivity analyses conducted by the EPA have illustrated that changing estimates of PRB ozone concentrations have a progressively greater impact on estimates of mortality risk as more stringent standards are considered. As defined by the EPA, PRB ozone is a model construct, but it is informed by measurements at relatively remote monitoring sites (RRMS). This review examines the current understanding of PRB ozone, based on both model predictions and measurements at RRMS, and provides recommendations for improving the definition and determination of PRB ozone.

Transport of atmospheric fine particulate matter: part 2--findings from recent field programs on the intraurban variability in fine particulate matter.

Air quality field data, collected as part of the fine particulate matter Supersites Program and other field measurements programs, have been used to assess the degree of intraurban variability for various physical and chemical properties of ambient fine particulate matter. Spatial patterns vary from nearly homogeneous to quite heterogeneous, depending on the city, parameter of interest, and the approach or method used to define spatial variability. Secondary formation, which is often regional in nature, drives fine particulate matter mass and the relevant chemical components toward high intraurban spatial homogeneity. Those particulate matter components that are dominated by primary emissions within the urban area, such as black carbon and several trace elements, tend to exhibit greater spatial heterogeneity. A variety of study designs and data analysis approaches have been used to characterize intraurban variability. High temporal correlation does not imply spatial homogeneity. For example, there can be high temporal correlation but with spatial heterogeneity manifested as smooth spatial gradients, often emanating from areas of high emissions such as the urban core or industrial zones.

Transport of atmospheric fine particulate matter: part 1--findings from recent field programs on the extent of regional transport within North America.

Air quality field data, collected as part of the fine particulate matter Supersites program and other field measurements programs, have been used to assess the role of aerosol transport, over length scales of approximately 100-1000 km, on fine particulate matter concentrations. Assessment of data from New York, NY; Baltimore, MD; Pittsburgh, PA; Atlanta, GA; Houston, TX; St. Louis, MO; and Fresno, CA, indicates that in virtually all of the regions, transport of aerosol over distances of 100-1000 km has a significant impact on urban particulate matter concentrations and a dominant role in determining rural particulate matter concentrations, though the nature of the regional contributions differs from region to region. This assessment is generally consistent with previous conceptual models of fine particulate matter formation and accumulation in these regions. The nature of the transported aerosol is largely sulfate in Eastern and Midwestern cities and nitrate in the Central Valley of California. In addition to physical transport of aerosol over distances of 100-1000 km, regional transport of aerosol precursors may lead to conditions conducive to large-scale nucleation events. Regional nucleation events have been reported in the East, Midwest, and in California. The events occurred in the morning soon after surface layers coupled with layers aloft, and the events generate ultrafine particles. In some cases, these nucleation events have been correlated with availability of sulfur dioxide and, therefore, may be sulfate formation events.

Fine particulate matter emissions inventories: comparisons of emissions estimates with observations from recent field programs.

Emissions inventories of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were compared with estimates of emissions based on data emerging from U.S. Environment Protection Agency Particulate Matter Supersites and other field programs. Six source categories for PM2.5 emissions were reviewed: on-road mobile sources, nonroad mobile sources, cooking, biomass combustion, fugitive dust, and stationary sources. Ammonia emissions from all of the source categories were also examined. Regional emissions inventories of PM in the exhaust from on-road and nonroad sources were generally consistent with ambient observations, though uncertainties in some emission factors were twice as large as the emission factors. In contrast, emissions inventories of road dust were up to an order of magnitude larger than ambient observations, and estimated brake wear and tire dust emissions were half as large as ambient observations in urban areas. Although comprehensive nationwide emissions inventories of PM2.5 from cooking sources and biomass burning are not yet available, observational data in urban areas suggest that cooking sources account for approximately 5-20% of total primary emissions (excluding dust), and biomass burning sources are highly dependent on region. Finally, relatively few observational data were available to assess the accuracy of emission estimates for stationary sources. Overall, the uncertainties in primary emissions for PM2.s are substantial. Similar uncertainties exist for ammonia emissions. Because of these uncertainties, the design of PM2.5 control strategies should be based on inventories that have been refined by a combination of bottom-up and top-down methods.

Influence of population density and temporal variations in emissions on the air duality benefits of NOx emission trading.

Ozone formation is a complex function of local hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide emissions. Therefore, trading of NOx emissions among geographically distributed facilities can lead to more or less ozone formation than across-the-board reductions. Monte Carlo simulations of trading scenarios involving 51 large NOx point sources in eastern Texas were used in a previous study by the authors to assess the effects of trading on air quality benefits, as measured by changes in ozone concentrations. The results indicated that 12% of trading scenarios would lead to greater than a 25% variation from conventional across-the-board reductions when air quality benefits are based only on changes in ozone concentration. The current study found that when benefits are based on a metric related to population exposure to ozone, two-thirds of the trading scenarios lead to changes in air quality benefits of approximately 25%. Variability in air quality benefits is not as strongly dependent on the temporal distribution of NOx emissions.