The long-term impact of vaginal surgical mesh devices on pain clinic and psychological service referrals, anti-inflammatory testing and pelvic scans in UK primary care: A cohort study with the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

OBJECTIVE: To examine long-term complications in women with stress urinary incontinence (SUI) and pelvic organ prolapse (POP), with and without surgical mesh implants. DESIGN: Longitudinal open cohort study from 1 April 2006 (or 1 April 2012) to 30 November 2018. SETTING: The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Gold database, which is linked to Hospital Episodes Statistics (HES) inpatient data, the HES Diagnostic Imaging Dataset (DID), Office for National Statistics mortality data and Index of Multiple Deprivation socio-economic status data. SAMPLE: Women aged ≥18 years with a diagnostic SUI/POP Read code. METHODS: Rates are estimated using negative binomial regression. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of referrals for: psychological and pain services; urinalysis, C-reactive protein (CRP) and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) testing; and pelvic ultrasound, computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. RESULTS: A cohort of 220 544 women were eligible for inclusion; 74% (n = 162 687) had SUI, 37% (n = 82 123) had POP and 11% (n = 24 266) had both. Rates of psychological referrals and CT scans were lower in women with SUI mesh surgery, but this was offset by higher rates of CRP testing in women with SUI or POP mesh, MRI scans in women with SUI mesh, and urinalysis testing and referrals to pain clinics for women with POP mesh. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest a higher burden of morbidity in women with SUI/POP mesh surgery, and that these women may require ongoing follow-up in the primary care setting.

Drug shortages. Part 1. Definitions and harms.

Drug shortages are repeatedly in the news. The earliest drug shortages were reported during the First World War, but the numbers of shortages have increased in recent years. In the first part of this two-part review, we discuss definitions of drug shortages and so-called stockouts, which are localized shortages, and the harms that they can cause. Drug shortages make it difficult or impossible to meet the therapeutic needs of individual patients or populations, but we lack an adequate definition. The problems are too complicated to be encompassed in a brief intensional dictionary-style definition, and that is reflected in the many different attempts at definition that have been proposed. We therefore propose an extensional operational definition that incorporates the processes by which products are manufactured, the causes of shortages and the contributory factors. A definition of this sort allows one to identify the main causes of a particular drug shortage and therefore the remedies that might prevent, mitigate or manage it. In the second part of the review we discuss the causes and solutions in more detail. Adverse drug reactions and medication errors attributable to shortages occur but are not often reported. Adverse reactions to substitute medicines are possible, and errors can occur because of unfamiliarity or unnecessary treatment with replacement medicines. Other harmful outcomes include withdrawal reactions, undertreatment, treatment delays and cancellations, failure of alternatives and disruption of clinical trials.

The quality of paediatric asthma guidelines: evidence underpinning diagnostic test recommendations from a meta-epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is one of the most frequent reasons children visit a general practitioner (GP). The diagnosis of childhood asthma is challenging, and a variety of diagnostic tests for asthma exist. GPs may refer to clinical practice guidelines when deciding which tests, if any, are appropriate, but the quality of these guidelines is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To determine (i) the methodological quality and reporting of paediatric guidelines for the diagnosis of childhood asthma in primary care, and (ii) the strength of evidence supporting diagnostic test recommendations. DESIGN: Meta-epidemiological study of English-language guidelines from the United Kingdom and other high-income countries with comparable primary care systems including diagnostic testing recommendations for childhood asthma in primary care. The AGREE-II tool was used to assess the quality and reporting of the guidelines. The quality of the evidence was assessed using GRADE. RESULTS: Eleven guidelines met the eligibility criteria. The methodology and reporting quality varied across the AGREE II domains (median score 4.5 out of 7, range 2-6). The quality of evidence supporting diagnostic recommendations was generally of very low quality. All guidelines recommended the use of spirometry and reversibility testing for children aged ≥5 years, however, the recommended spirometry thresholds for diagnosis differed across guidelines. There were disagreements in testing recommendations for 3 of the 7 included tests. CONCLUSIONS: The variable quality of guidelines, lack of good quality evidence, and inconsistent recommendations for diagnostic tests may contribute to poor clinician adherence to guidelines and variation in testing for diagnosing childhood asthma.

Evaluating the impact of a very low-cost intervention to increase practices' engagement with data and change prescribing behaviour: a randomized trial in English primary care.

BACKGROUND: Unsolicited feedback can solicit changes in prescribing. OBJECTIVES: Determine whether a low-cost intervention increases clinicians' engagement with data, and changes prescribing; with or without behavioural science techniques. METHODS: Randomized trial (ISRCTN86418238). The highest prescribing practices in England for broad-spectrum antibiotics were allocated to: feedback with behavioural impact optimization; plain feedback; or no intervention. Feedback was sent monthly for 3 months by letter, fax and email. Each included a link to a prescribing dashboard. The primary outcomes were dashboard usage and change in prescribing. RESULTS: A total of 1401 practices were randomized: 356 behavioural optimization, 347 plain feedback, and 698 control. For the primary engagement outcome, more intervention practices had their dashboards viewed compared with controls [65.7% versus 55.9%; RD 9.8%, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 4.76% to 14.9%, P < 0.001]. More plain feedback practices had their dashboard viewed than behavioural feedback practices (69.1% versus 62.4%); but not meeting the P < 0.05 threshold (6.8%, 95% CI: -0.19% to 13.8%, P = 0.069). For the primary prescribing outcome, intervention practices possibly reduced broad-spectrum prescribing to a greater extent than controls (1.42% versus 1.12%); but again not meeting the P < 0.05 threshold (coefficient -0.31%, CI: -0.7% to 0.1%, P = 0.104). The behavioural impact group reduced broad-spectrum prescribing to a greater extent than plain feedback practices (1.63% versus 1.20%; coefficient 0.41%, CI: 0.007% to 0.8%, P = 0.046). No harms were detected. CONCLUSIONS: Unsolicited feedback increased practices' engagement with data, with possible slightly reduced antibiotic prescribing (P = 0.104). Behavioural science techniques gave greater prescribing effects. The modest effects on prescribing may reflect saturation from similar initiatives on antibiotic prescribing. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN86418238.

A randomised controlled trial of extended anticoagulation treatment versus standard treatment for the prevention of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) and post-thrombotic syndrome in patients being treated for a first episode of unprovoked VTE (the ExACT study).

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is prevalent and impactful, with a risk of death, morbidity and recurrence. Post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS) is a common consequence and associated with impaired quality of life (QoL). The ExACT study was a non-blinded, prospective, multicentred randomised controlled trial comparing extended versus limited duration anticoagulation following a first unprovoked VTE (proximal deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism). Adults were eligible if they had completed ≥3 months anticoagulation (remaining anticoagulated). The primary outcome was time to first recurrent VTE from randomisation. The secondary outcomes included PTS severity, bleeding, QoL and D-dimers. Two-hundred and eighty-one patients were recruited, randomised and followed up for 24 months (mean age 63, male:female 2:1). There was a significant reduction in recurrent VTE for patients receiving extended anticoagulation [2·75 vs. 13·54 events/100 patient years, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0·20 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0·09 to 0·46, P < 0·001)] with a non-significant increase in major bleeding [3·54 vs. 1·18 events/100 patient years, aHR 2·99 (95% CI: 0·81-11·05, P = 0·10)]. Outcomes of PTS and QoL were no different between groups. D-dimer results (on anticoagulation) did not predict VTE recurrence. In conclusion, extended anticoagulation reduced VTE recurrence but did not reduce PTS or improve QoL and was associated with a non-significant increase in bleeding. Results also suggest very limited clinical utility of D-dimer testing on anticoagulated patients.

Open-label randomised pragmatic trial (CONTACT) comparing naproxen and low-dose colchicine for the treatment of gout flares in primary care.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the effectiveness and safety of naproxen and low-dose colchicine for treating gout flares in primary care. METHODS: This was a multicentre open-label randomised trial. Adults with a gout flare recruited from 100 general practices were randomised equally to naproxen 750 mg immediately then 250 mg every 8 hours for 7 days or low-dose colchicine 500 mcg three times per day for 4 days. The primary outcome was change in worst pain intensity in the last 24 hours (0-10 Numeric Rating Scale) from baseline measured daily over the first 7 days: mean change from baseline was compared between groups over days 1-7 by intention to treat. RESULTS: Between 29 January 2014 and 31 December 2015, we recruited 399 participants (naproxen n=200, colchicine n=199), of whom 349 (87.5%) completed primary outcome data at day 7. There was no significant between-group difference in average pain-change scores over days 1-7 (colchicine vs naproxen: mean difference -0.18; 95% CI -0.53 to 0.17; p=0.32). During days 1-7, diarrhoea (45.9% vs 20.0%; OR 3.31; 2.01 to 5.44) and headache (20.5% vs 10.7%; 1.92; 1.03 to 3.55) were more common in the colchicine group than the naproxen group but constipation was less common (4.8% vs 19.3%; 0.24; 0.11 to 0.54). CONCLUSION: We found no difference in pain intensity over 7 days between people with a gout flare randomised to either naproxen or low-dose colchicine. Naproxen caused fewer side effects supporting naproxen as first-line treatment for gout flares in primary care in the absence of contraindications. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN (69836939), clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01994226), EudraCT (2013-001354-95).

Effect of Antihypertensive Medication Reduction vs Usual Care on Short-term Blood Pressure Control in Patients With Hypertension Aged 80 Years and Older: The OPTIMISE Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Deprescribing of antihypertensive medications is recommended for some older patients with polypharmacy and multimorbidity when the benefits of continued treatment may not outweigh the harms. Objective: This study aimed to establish whether antihypertensive medication reduction is possible without significant changes in systolic blood pressure control or adverse events during 12-week follow-up. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Optimising Treatment for Mild Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly (OPTIMISE) study was a randomized, unblinded, noninferiority trial conducted in 69 primary care sites in England. Participants, whose primary care physician considered them appropriate for medication reduction, were aged 80 years and older, had systolic blood pressure lower than 150 mm Hg, and were receiving at least 2 antihypertensive medications were included. Participants enrolled between April 2017 and September 2018 and underwent follow-up until January 2019. Interventions: Participants were randomized (1:1 ratio) to a strategy of antihypertensive medication reduction (removal of 1 drug [intervention], n = 282) or usual care (control, n = 287), in which no medication changes were mandated. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was systolic blood pressure lower than 150 mm Hg at 12-week follow-up. The prespecified noninferiority margin was a relative risk (RR) of 0.90. Secondary outcomes included the proportion of participants maintaining medication reduction and differences in blood pressure, frailty, quality of life, adverse effects, and serious adverse events. Results: Among 569 patients randomized (mean age, 84.8 years; 276 [48.5%] women; median of 2 antihypertensive medications prescribed at baseline), 534 (93.8%) completed the trial. Overall, 229 (86.4%) patients in the intervention group and 236 (87.7%) patients in the control group had a systolic blood pressure lower than 150 mm Hg at 12 weeks (adjusted RR, 0.98 [97.5% 1-sided CI, 0.92 to ∞]). Of 7 prespecified secondary end points, 5 showed no significant difference. Medication reduction was sustained in 187 (66.3%) participants at 12 weeks. Mean change in systolic blood pressure was 3.4 mm Hg (95% CI, 1.1 to 5.8 mm Hg) higher in the intervention group compared with the control group. Twelve (4.3%) participants in the intervention group and 7 (2.4%) in the control group reported at least 1 serious adverse event (adjusted RR, 1.72 [95% CI, 0.7 to 4.3]). Conclusions and Relevance: Among older patients treated with multiple antihypertensive medications, a strategy of medication reduction, compared with usual care, was noninferior with regard to systolic blood pressure control at 12 weeks. The findings suggest antihypertensive medication reduction in some older patients with hypertension is not associated with substantial change in blood pressure control, although further research is needed to understand long-term clinical outcomes. Trial Registration: EudraCT Identifier: 2016-004236-38; ISRCTN identifier: 97503221.

Efficacy of self-monitored blood pressure, with or without telemonitoring, for titration of antihypertensive medication (TASMINH4): an unmasked randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Studies evaluating titration of antihypertensive medication using self-monitoring give contradictory findings and the precise place of telemonitoring over self-monitoring alone is unclear. The TASMINH4 trial aimed to assess the efficacy of self-monitored blood pressure, with or without telemonitoring, for antihypertensive titration in primary care, compared with usual care. METHODS: This study was a parallel randomised controlled trial done in 142 general practices in the UK, and included hypertensive patients older than 35 years, with blood pressure higher than 140/90 mm Hg, who were willing to self-monitor their blood pressure. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to self-monitoring blood pressure (self-montoring group), to self-monitoring blood pressure with telemonitoring (telemonitoring group), or to usual care (clinic blood pressure; usual care group). Randomisation was by a secure web-based system. Neither participants nor investigators were masked to group assignment. The primary outcome was clinic measured systolic blood pressure at 12 months from randomisation. Primary analysis was of available cases. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN 83571366. FINDINGS: 1182 participants were randomly assigned to the self-monitoring group (n=395), the telemonitoring group (n=393), or the usual care group (n=394), of whom 1003 (85%) were included in the primary analysis. After 12 months, systolic blood pressure was lower in both intervention groups compared with usual care (self-monitoring, 137·0 [SD 16·7] mm Hg and telemonitoring, 136·0 [16·1] mm Hg vs usual care, 140·4 [16·5]; adjusted mean differences vs usual care: self-monitoring alone, -3·5 mm Hg [95% CI -5·8 to -1·2]; telemonitoring, -4·7 mm Hg [-7·0 to -2·4]). No difference between the self-monitoring and telemonitoring groups was recorded (adjusted mean difference -1·2 mm Hg [95% CI -3·5 to 1·2]). Results were similar in sensitivity analyses including multiple imputation. Adverse events were similar between all three groups. INTERPRETATION: Self-monitoring, with or without telemonitoring, when used by general practitioners to titrate antihypertensive medication in individuals with poorly controlled blood pressure, leads to significantly lower blood pressure than titration guided by clinic readings. With most general practitioners and many patients using self-monitoring, it could become the cornerstone of hypertension management in primary care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research via Programme Grant for Applied Health Research (RP-PG-1209-10051), Professorship to RJM (NIHR-RP-R2-12-015), Oxford Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care, and Omron Healthcare UK.

A real-world approach to Evidence-Based Medicine in general practice: a competency framework derived from a systematic review and Delphi process.

BACKGROUND: Evidence-Based Medicine (EBM) skills have been included in general practice curricula and competency frameworks. However, GPs experience numerous barriers to developing and maintaining EBM skills, and some GPs feel the EBM movement misunderstands, and threatens their traditional role. We therefore need a new approach that acknowledges the constraints encountered in real-world general practice. The aim of this study was to synthesise from empirical research a real-world EBM competency framework for general practice, which could be applied in training, in the individual pursuit of continuing professional development, and in routine care. We sought to integrate evidence from the literature with evidence derived from the opinions of experts in the fields of general practice and EBM. METHODS: We synthesised two sets of themes describing the meaning of EBM in general practice. One set of themes was derived from a mixed-methods systematic review of the literature; the other set was derived from the further development of those themes using a Delphi process among a panel of EBM and general practice experts. From these two sets of themes we constructed a real-world EBM competency framework for general practice. RESULTS: A simple competency framework was constructed, that acknowledges the constraints of real-world general practice: (1) mindfulness - in one's approach towards EBM itself, and to the influences on decision-making; (2) pragmatism - in one's approach to finding and evaluating evidence; and (3) knowledge of the patient - as the most useful resource in effective communication of evidence. We present a clinical scenario to illustrate how a GP might demonstrate these competencies in their routine daily work. CONCLUSION: We have proposed a real-world EBM competency framework for general practice, derived from empirical research, which acknowledges the constraints encountered in modern general practice. Further validation of these competencies is required, both as an educational resource and as a strategy for actual practice.

A BEME systematic review of UK undergraduate medical education in the general practice setting: BEME Guide No. 32.

BACKGROUND: General practice is increasingly used as a learning environment in undergraduate medical education in the UK. AIM: The aim of this project was to identify, summarise and synthesise research about undergraduate medical education in general practice in the UK. METHODS: We systematically identified studies of undergraduate medical education within a general practice setting in the UK from 1990 onwards. All papers were summarised in a descriptive report and categorised into two in-depth syntheses: a quantitative and a qualitative in-depth review. RESULTS: 169 papers were identified, representing research from 26 UK medical schools. The in-depth review of quantitative papers (n = 7) showed that medical students learned clinical skills as well or better in general practice settings. Students receive more teaching, and clerk and examine more patients in the general practice setting than in hospital. Patient satisfaction and enablement are similar whether a student is present or not in a consultation, however, patients experience lower relational empathy. Two main thematic groups emerged from the qualitative in-depth review (n = 10): the interpersonal interactions within the teaching consultation and the socio-cultural spaces of learning which shape these interactions. The GP has a role as a broker of the interactions between patients and students. General practice is a socio-cultural and developmental learning space for students, who need to negotiate the competing cultures between hospital and general practice. Lastly, patients are transient members of the learning community, and their role requires careful facilitation. CONCLUSIONS: General practice is as good, if not better, than hospital delivery of teaching of clinical skills. Our meta-ethnography has produced rich understandings of the complex relationships shaping possibilities for student and patient active participation in learning.

Development of a search filter for identifying studies completed in primary care.

BACKGROUND: Identifying articles relevant to primary care is challenging for busy clinicians. Setting specific search strategies can be used to help clinicians find pertinent studies in a timely fashion. OBJECTIVES: To develop search filters for identifying research studies of relevance to primary care in MEDLINE (OvidSP). METHODS: We conducted a search of MEDLINE (OvidSP) for articles published in five core medical journals at five yearly intervals. We identified a gold standard set of primary care relevant articles which was divided into two subsets. The first subset was used to identify frequently occurring words and phrases through textual analysis. Search filters were developed from these words and phrases and internally validated against records in the second subset. We evaluated the filters performance in a search for articles on two common primary care conditions in MEDLINE (OvidSP). RESULTS: Of the 12 045 articles retrieved, 9028 records were reviewed, of which 371 articles were relevant to primary care (gold standard). When the search filters generated from textual analysis were internally validated, filter specificity peaked at 99% with 60% sensitivity, 67% precision and 97% accuracy. When evaluated against a set of articles on two common primary care conditions, the best performing combination search filter specificity maximized at 99.7% with sensitivity reaching 15% (precision 90%; accuracy 89%). CONCLUSION: The best performing combination search filter works well in reducing the number of irrelevant papers retrieved in a MEDLINE (OvidSP) search if a busy clinician needs to focus on research relevant to primary care.

Placebo use in the UK: a qualitative study exploring GPs' views on placebo effects in clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Surveys show GPs use placebos in clinical practice and reported prevalence rates vary widely. AIM: To explore GPs' perspectives on clinical uses of placebos. DESIGN AND SETTING: A web-based survey of 783 UK GPs' use of placebos in clinical practice. METHODS: Qualitative descriptive analysis of written responses ('comments') to three open-ended questions. RESULTS: Comments were classified into three categories: (i) defining placebos and their effects in general practice; (ii) ethical, societal and regulatory issues faced by doctors and (iii) reasons why a doctor might use placebos and placebo effects in clinical practice. GPs typically defined placebos as lacking something, be that adverse or beneficial effects, known mechanism of action and/or scientific evidence. Some GPs defined placebos positively as having potential to benefit patients, primarily through psychological mechanisms. GPs described a broad array of possible harms and benefits of placebo prescribing, reflecting fundamental bioethical principles, at the level of the individual, the doctor-patient relationship, the National Health Service and society. While some GPs were adamant that there was no place for placebos in clinical practice, others focused on the clinically beneficial effects of placebos in primary care. CONCLUSION: This study has elucidated specific costs, benefits and ethical barriers to placebo use as perceived by a large sample of UK GPs. Stand-alone qualitative work would provide a more in-depth understanding of GPs' views. Continuing education and professional guidance could help GPs update and contextualize their understanding of placebos and their clinical effects.

Barriers and Facilitators to Implementing Cost-Effective Evidence-Based Childhood Cancer Treatment in a Resource-Limited Setting in Egypt: A Qualitative Interview Study.

PURPOSE: Childhood cancer treatment is complex, resource-intensive, and expensive, and resource-limited settings would benefit from providing cost-effective treatment approaches on the basis of evidence. Effective implementation of cost-effective evidence-based treatment requires knowledge about factors influencing its use. In this study, we determined the clinicians' perceptions of the barriers and facilitators to implementing cost-effective evidence-based treatment for children with cancer in a resource-limited pediatric oncology setting in Egypt. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study on the basis of semistructured interviews with senior clinicians who make high-level decisions on treatment protocols and tailored decisions for the atypically complicated group of patients. Purposive sampling was used to recruit the participants. Thematic analysis was conducted semantically to develop themes of barriers and facilitators. RESULTS: Fourteen participants agreed to participate in the study: nine pediatric oncologists; three surgeons; and two radiation oncologists. We identified four main themes of barriers and facilitators: awareness and orientation; knowledge, skills, and attitudes; system, resources, and context; and clinical practice. The main barriers included absence of easily available costs/cost-effectiveness data, limited resources and inability to pay for expensive novel (cost-effective) drugs, and gap between evidence and practice. The main facilitators included adopting standard treatment protocols on the basis of clinical effectiveness, leadership support, availability of patients' clinical and cost data from local context, and existing knowledge and skills in clinical research and health economic evaluation. The interview participants also provided suggestions to promote the implementation of cost-effective evidence-based treatment in priority areas. CONCLUSION: Our study findings provide an understanding of the barriers and facilitators affecting the implementation of cost-effective evidence-based treatment for childhood cancers in Egypt. We provide practical recommendations to address the implementation gaps with implications on practice, policy, and research.

Cost-effectiveness of childhood cancer treatment in Egypt: Lessons to promote high-value care in a resource-limited setting based on real-world evidence.

Background: Childhood cancer in low-and middle-income countries is a global health priority, however, the perception that treatment is unaffordable has potentially led to scarce investment in resources, contributing to inferior survival. In this study, we analysed real-world data about the cost-effectiveness of treating 8886 children with cancer at a large resource-limited paediatric oncology setting in Egypt, between 2013 and 2017, stratified by cancer type, stage/risk, and disease status. Methods: Childhood cancer costs (USD 2019) were calculated from a health-system perspective, and 5-year overall survival was used to represent clinical effectiveness. We estimated cost-effectiveness as the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (cost/DALY) averted, adjusted for utility decrement for late-effect morbidity and mortality. Findings: For all cancers combined, cost/DALY averted was $1384 (0.5 × GDP/capita), which is very cost-effective according to WHO-CHOICE thresholds. Ratio of cost/DALY averted to GDP/capita varied by cancer type/sub-type and disease severity (range: 0.1-1.6), where it was lowest for Hodgkin lymphoma, and retinoblastoma, and highest for high-risk acute leukaemia, and high-risk neuroblastoma. Treatment was cost-effective (ratio <3 × GDP/capita) for all cancer types/subtypes and risk/stage groups, except for relapsed/refractory acute leukaemia, and relapsed/progressive patients with brain tumours, hepatoblastoma, Ewing sarcoma, and neuroblastoma. Treatment cost-effectiveness was affected by the high costs and inferior survival of advanced-stage/high-risk and relapsed/progressive cancers. Interpretation: Childhood cancer treatment is cost-effective in a resource-limited setting in Egypt, except for some relapsed/progressive cancer groups. We present evidence-based recommendations and lessons to promote high-value in care delivery, with implications on practice and policy. Funding: Egypt Cancer Network; NIHR School for Primary Care Research; ALSAC.

Why COVID-19 modelling of progression and prevention fails to translate to the real-world.

Mathematical models were used widely to inform policy during the COVID pandemic. However, there is a poor understanding of their limitations and how they influence decision-making. We used systematic review search methods to find early modelling studies that determined the reproduction number and analysed its use and application to interventions and policy in the UK. Up to March 2020, we found 42 reproduction number estimates (39 based on Chinese data: R0 range 2.1-6.47). Several biases affect the quality of modelling studies that are infrequently discussed, and many factors contribute to significant differences in the results of individual studies that go beyond chance. The sources of effect estimates incorporated into mathematical models are unclear. There is often a lack of a relationship between transmission estimates and the timing of imposed restrictions, which is further affected by the lag in reporting. Modelling studies lack basic evidence-based methods that aid their quality assessment, reporting and critical appraisal. If used judiciously, models may be helpful, especially if they openly present the uncertainties and use sensitivity analyses extensively, which need to consider and explicitly discuss the limitations of the evidence. However, until the methodological and ethical issues are resolved, predictive models should be used cautiously.

Integrating patient values and preferences in healthcare: a systematic review of qualitative evidence.

OBJECTIVES: To identify and thematically analyse how healthcare professionals (HCPs) integrate patient values and preferences ('values integration') in primary care for adults with non-communicable diseases (NCDs). DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-aggregation methods were used for extraction, synthesis and analysis of qualitative evidence. DATA SOURCES: Relevant records were sourced using keywords to search 12 databases (ASSIA, CINAHL, DARE, EMBASE, ERIC, Google Scholar, GreyLit, Ovid-MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PubMed-MEDLINE, Scopus and Web of Science). ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Records needed to be published between 2000 and 2020 and report qualitative methods and findings in English involving HCP participants regarding primary care for adult patients. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Relevant data including participant quotations, authors' observations, interpretations and conclusions were extracted, synthesised and analysed in a phased approach using a modified version of the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Data Extraction Tool, as well as EPPI Reviewer and NVivo software. The JBI Critical Appraisal Checklist for Qualitative Research was used to assess methodological quality of included records. RESULTS: Thirty-one records involving >1032 HCP participants and 1823 HCP-patient encounters were reviewed. Findings included 143 approaches to values integration in clinical care, thematically analysed and synthesised into four themes: (1) approaches of concern; (2) approaches of competence; (3) approaches of communication and (4) approaches of congruence. Confidence in the quality of included records was deemed high. CONCLUSIONS: HCPs incorporate patient values and preferences in healthcare through a variety of approaches including showing concern for the patient as a person, demonstrating competence at managing diseases, communicating with patients as partners and tailoring, adjusting and balancing overall care. Themes in this review provide a novel framework for understanding and addressing values integration in clinical care and provide useful insights for policymakers, educators and practitioners. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020166002.

Deaths from cardiovascular disease involving anticoagulants: a systematic synthesis of coroners' case reports.

BACKGROUND: The global burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is forecast to increase, and anticoagulants will remain important medicines for its management. Coroners' Prevention of Future Death reports (PFDs) provide valuable insights that may enable safer and more effective use of these agents. AIM: To identify CVD-related PFDs involving anticoagulants. DESIGN & SETTING: Case series of coronial reports in England and Wales between 2013 and 2019. METHOD: A total of 3037 PFDs were screened for eligibility. PFDs were included where CVD and an anticoagulant caused or contributed to the death. Included cases were descriptively analysed and content analysis was used to assess concerns raised by coroners and who had responded to them. RESULTS: The study identified 113 CVD-related PFDs involving anticoagulants. Warfarin (36%, n = 41), enoxaparin (11%, n = 12), and rivaroxaban (11%, n = 12) were the most common anticoagulants reported. Concerns most frequently raised by coroners included poor systems (31%), poor communication (25%), and failures to keep accurate medical records (25%). These concerns were most often directed to NHS trusts (29%), hospitals (10%), and general practices (8%). Nearly two-thirds (60%) of PFDs had not received responses from such organisations, which are mandatory under regulation 28 of the Coroners' (Investigations) Regulations 2013. A publicly available tool has been created by the authors (https://preventabledeathstracker.net), which displays coroners' reports in England and Wales to streamline access, and identify important lessons to prevent future deaths. CONCLUSION: National organisations, healthcare professionals, and prescribers should take actions to address the concerns of coroners in PFDs to improve the safe use of anticoagulants in patients with CVD.

Non-antibiotic treatment of acute urinary tract infection in primary care: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The views of women with acute, uncomplicated urinary tract infection (auUTI) on the acceptability of non-antibiotic treatment options are poorly understood. AIM: To establish women's thoughts on and experience of non-antibiotic treatment for auUTIs. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative interview study with primary care patients in Oxfordshire, UK, embedded within the Cranberry for Urinary Tract Infection (CUTI) feasibility trial. METHOD: One-to-one, semi-structured interviews were conducted between August 2019 and January 2020 with some CUTI trial participants and some patients who were not part of the CUTI trial who had experienced at least one urinary tract infection (UTI) in the preceding 12 months in Oxfordshire, UK. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: In total, 26 interviews were conducted and analysed. Women expected to receive an immediate antibiotic for their UTI but were aware of the potential harms of this approach. They were keen to find a non-antibiotic, 'natural' alternative that could effectively manage their symptoms. In certain situations (early illness, milder illness, and with no important upcoming engagements), women indicated they would be prepared to postpone antibiotic treatment by up to 3 days, especially if offered an interim non-antibiotic option with perceived therapeutic potential. CONCLUSION: Many women with auUTIs are open to trying non-antibiotic treatments first in certain situations. There is scope for more dialogue between primary care clinicians and patients with auUTI around delaying antibiotic treatment and using non-antibiotic options initially, which could reduce antibiotic consumption for this common infection.

The Long-Term Impact of Vaginal Surgical Mesh Devices in UK Primary Care: A Cohort Study in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

PURPOSE: Stress urinary incontinence (SUI) and pelvic organ prolapse (POP) may be treated with surgical mesh devices; evidence of their long-term complications is lacking. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Rates of diagnoses of depression, anxiety or self-harm (composite measure) and sexual dysfunction, and rates of prescriptions for antibiotics and opioids were estimated in women with and without mesh surgery, with a diagnostic SUI/POP code, registered in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) gold database. RESULTS: There were 220,544 women eligible for inclusion; 74% (n = 162,687) had SUI, 37% (n = 82,123) had POP, and 11% (n = 24,266) had both. Women undergoing mesh surgery for SUI or POP had about 1.1 times higher rates of antibiotic use. Women with no previous history of the outcome, who underwent mesh surgery had 2.43 (95% CI 2.19-2.70) and 1.47 (95% CI 1.19-1.81) times higher rates of depression, anxiety, or self-harm, 1.88 (95% CI 1.50-2.36) and 1.64 (95% CI 1.02-2.63) times higher rates of sexual dysfunction and 1.40 (95% CI 1.26-1.56) and 1.23 (95% CI 1.01-1.49) times higher opioid use for SUI and POP, respectively. Women with a history of depression, anxiety and self-harm had 0.3 times lower rates of these outcomes with SUI or POP mesh surgery (HR for SUI 0.70 (95% CI 0.67-0.73), HR for POP 0.72 (95% CI 0.65-0.79)). Women with a history of opioid use who had POP mesh surgery had about 0.09 times lower rates (HR 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.96)) of prescriptions. Negative control outcome analyses showed no evidence of an association between asthma consultations and mesh surgery in women with POP, but the rate was 0.09 times lower (HR 0.91 (95% CI 0.87-0.94)) in women with SUI mesh surgery, suggesting that study results are subject to some residual confounding. CONCLUSION: Mesh surgery was associated with poor mental and sexual health outcomes, alongside increased opioid and antibiotic use, in women with no history of these outcomes and improved mental health, and lower opioid use, in women with a previous history of these outcomes. Although our results suggest an influence of residual confounding, careful consideration of the benefits and risk of mesh surgery for women with SUI or POP on an individual basis is required.