Evaluating the risk of conflict on recent Ebola outbreaks in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BACKGROUND: Reducing Ebola virus transmission relies on the ability to identify cases and limit contact with infected bodily fluids through biosecurity, safe sex practices, safe burial and vaccination. Armed conflicts can complicate outbreak detection and interventions due to widespread disruption to governments and populations. Guinea and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have historically reported the largest and the most recent Ebola virus outbreaks. Understanding if conflict played a role in these outbreaks may help in identifying key risks factors to improve disease control. METHODS: We used data from a range of publicly available data sources for both Ebola virus cases and conflict events from 2018 to 2021 in Guinea and the DRC. We fitted these data to conditional logistic regression models using the Self-Controlled Case Series methodology to evaluate the magnitude in which conflict increased the risk of reported Ebola virus cases in terms of incidence rate ratio. We re-ran the analysis sub-nationally, by conflict sub-event type and tested any lagged effects. RESULTS: Conflict was significantly associated with an increased risk of reported Ebola virus cases in both the DRC and Guinea in recent outbreaks. The effect was of a similar magnitude at 1.88- and 1.98-times increased risk for the DRC and Guinea, respectively. The greatest effects (often higher than the national values) were found in many conflict prone areas and during protest/riot-related conflict events. Conflict was influential in terms of Ebola virus risk from 1 week following the event and remained important by 10 weeks. CONCLUSION: Extra vigilance is needed following protests and riot-related conflict events in terms of Ebola virus transmission. These events are highly disruptive, in terms of access to transportation and healthcare and are often in urban areas with high population densities. Additional public health messaging around these types of conflict events, relating to the risks and clinical symptoms may be helpful in reducing transmission. Future work should aim to further understand and quantify conflict severity and intensity, to evaluate dose-response relationships in terms of disease risk.

The 2020 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: responding to converging crises.

TRANSLATIONS: For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.

A disaster diplomacy perspective of acute public health events.

Conceptions of acute public health events typically assume that they are tackled exclusively or principally through technical and medical solutions. Yet health and politics are inexorably linked. To better understand this link, this paper adopts a disaster diplomacy perspective for analysing and assessing the impacts of acute public health events on diplomatic outcomes. Two gaps in understanding disaster-health-politics connections are addressed: (i) how health interventions can impact diplomatic endeavours, especially for (ii) acute public health events. Three diverse case studies are interpreted from a disaster diplomacy perspective: Cuba's medical diplomacy, China and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and polio vaccination. Disaster diplomacy permits deeper investigation and analysis of connections amongst health, disaster, and diplomatic activities by viewing efforts on acute public health events as being political through disaster risk reduction (beforehand) and disaster response (during and afterwards). Understanding improves how health interventions affect diplomacy and on disaster diplomacy's limitations.

Child health prioritisation in national adaptation policies on climate change: a policy document analysis across 160 countries.

Integration of child-specific adaptation measures into health policies is imperative given children's heightened susceptibility to the health impacts of climate change. Using a document analysis method, we examined 160 national adaptation policies for inclusion of child-relevant measures and identified 19 child health-related adaptation domains. 44 (28%) of 160 countries' policies that were analysed failed to include any domains, 49 (31%) included at least one child-related domain, 62 (39%) included between two and six domains, and five (3%) included at least seven domains. Predominant domains among child-specific adaptation measures included education and awareness raising, followed by community engagement and nutrition. No country addressed children's direct needs in the domain of mental health. National adaptation policies tend towards overly simple conceptualisations of children across four major lenses: age, social role, gender, and agency. Limited inclusion of child-specific measures in national adaptation policies suggests insufficient recognition of and action on children's susceptibility to climate change effects.

Cholera past and future in Nigeria: Are the Global Task Force on Cholera Control's 2030 targets achievable?

BACKGROUND: Understanding and continually assessing the achievability of global health targets is key to reducing disease burden and mortality. The Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) Roadmap aims to reduce cholera deaths by 90% and eliminate the disease in twenty countries by 2030. The Roadmap has three axes focusing on reporting, response and coordination. Here, we assess the achievability of the GTFCC targets in Nigeria and identify where the three axes could be strengthened to reach and exceed these goals. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using cholera surveillance data from Nigeria, cholera incidence was calculated and used to model time-varying reproduction number (R). A best fit random forest model was identified using R as the outcome variable and several environmental and social covariates were considered in the model, using random forest variable importance and correlation clustering. Future scenarios were created (based on varying degrees of socioeconomic development and emissions reductions) and used to project future cholera transmission, nationally and sub-nationally to 2070. The projections suggest that significant reductions in cholera cases could be achieved by 2030, particularly in the more developed southern states, but increases in cases remain a possibility. Meeting the 2030 target, nationally, currently looks unlikely and we propose a new 2050 target focusing on reducing regional inequities, while still advocating for cholera elimination being achieved as soon as possible. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The 2030 targets could potentially be reached by 2030 in some parts of Nigeria, but more effort is needed to reach these targets at a national level, particularly through access and incentives to cholera testing, sanitation expansion, poverty alleviation and urban planning. The results highlight the importance of and how modelling studies can be used to inform cholera policy and the potential for this to be applied in other contexts.

Toward resourcefulness: pathways for community positive health.

Communities are powerful and necessary agents for defining and pursuing their health, but outside organizations often adopt community health promotion approaches that are patronizing and top-down. Conversely, bottom-up approaches that build on and mobilize community health assets are often critiqued for tasking the most vulnerable and marginalized communities to use their own limited resources without real opportunities for change. Taking into consideration these community health promotion shortcomings, this article asks how communities may be most effectively and appropriately supported in pursuing their health. This article reviews how community health is understood, moving from negative to positive conceptualizations; how it is determined, moving from a risk-factor orientation to social determination; and how it is promoted, moving from top-down to bottom-up approaches. Building on these understandings, we offer the concept of 'resourcefulness' as an approach to strengthen positive health for communities, and we discuss how it engages with three interrelated tensions in community health promotion: resources and sustainability, interdependence and autonomy, and community diversity and inclusion. We make practical suggestions for outside organizations to apply resourcefulness as a process-based, place-based, and relational approach to community health promotion, arguing that resourcefulness can forge new pathways to sustainable and self-sustaining community positive health.

Synthesising the shifting terminology of community health: A critiquing review of agent-based approaches.

The field of community health promotion encompasses a wide range of approaches, including bottom-up approaches that recognise and build on the agency and strengths of communities to define and pursue their health goals. Momentum towards agent-based approaches to community health promotion has grown in recent years, and several related but distinct conceptual and methodological bodies of work have developed largely in isolation from each other. The lack of a cohesive collection of research, practice, and policy has made it difficult to learn from the innovations, best practices, and shortcomings of these approaches, which is exacerbated by the imprecise and inconsistent use of related terms. This article provides a review of three agent-based approaches to promoting community health: asset-based approaches, capacity building, and capabilities approaches, noting the theoretical origins and fundamental concepts, applications and methodologies, and limitations and critiques of each. This article discusses their commonalities and differences in terms of how they conceptualise and approach the promotion of community health, including a critical consideration of their limitations and where they may prove to be counterproductive. This article argues that agent-based approaches to community health must be met with meaningful opportunities to disengage from the structures that constrain their health.

Do Women in Nepal Like Playing a Mobile Game? MANTRA: A Mobile Gamified App for Improving Healthcare Seeking Behavior in Rural Nepal.

In Low and Middle Income Countries (LMIC), one of the causes of maternal and child mortality is a lack of medical knowledge and consequently the inability to seek timely healthcare. Mobile health (mHealth) technology is gradually becoming a universal intervention platform across the globe due to ubiquity of mobile phones and network coverage. MANTRA is a novel mHealth intervention developed to tackle maternal and child health issues through a serious mobile game app in rural Nepal, which demonstrated a statistically significant knowledge improvement in rural women. This paper explores the perceptions and usability of the MANTRA app amongst rural women and Female Community Health Volunteers (FCHVs) in Nepal. Despite the challenges of a target user group with limited educational levels and low smartphone experience, all participants viewed the MANTRA app with approval and enthusiasm. They were willing to engage further with the mHealth intervention and to share their experience and knowledge with fellow community members. Participants also showed an increase in awareness of danger signs enabling them to make better informed health decisions in the future. FCHVs viewed the app as a validation tool providing and support for greater impact of their efforts in rural Nepal. Growing mobile ownership, network coverage and availability of smartphones along with acceptance of the prototype MANTRA app in rural communities suggest encouraging prospects for mHealth interventions to be incorporated in the national health infrastructure in Nepal and other LMICs.