Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis.

BACKGROUND: The USA struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics. We sought to answer five key policy-relevant questions regarding the following: 1) what roles social, economic, and racial inequities had in interstate variation in COVID-19 outcomes; 2) whether states with greater health-care and public health capacity had better outcomes; 3) how politics influenced the results; 4) whether states that imposed more policy mandates and sustained them longer had better outcomes; and 5) whether there were trade-offs between a state having fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections and total COVID-19 deaths and its economic and educational outcomes. METHODS: Data disaggregated by US state were extracted from public databases, including COVID-19 infection and mortality estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) COVID-19 database; Bureau of Economic Analysis data on state gross domestic product (GDP); Federal Reserve economic data on employment rates; National Center for Education Statistics data on student standardised test scores; and US Census Bureau data on race and ethnicity by state. We standardised infection rates for population density and death rates for age and the prevalence of major comorbidities to facilitate comparison of states' successes in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. We regressed these health outcomes on prepandemic state characteristics (such as educational attainment and health spending per capita), policies adopted by states during the pandemic (such as mask mandates and business closures), and population-level behavioural responses (such as vaccine coverage and mobility). We explored potential mechanisms connecting state-level factors to individual-level behaviours using linear regression. We quantified reductions in state GDP, employment, and student test scores during the pandemic to identify policy and behavioural responses associated with these outcomes and to assess trade-offs between these outcomes and COVID-19 outcomes. Significance was defined as p<0·05. FINDINGS: Standardised cumulative COVID-19 death rates for the period from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022 varied across the USA (national rate 372 deaths per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 364-379]), with the lowest standardised rates in Hawaii (147 deaths per 100 000 [127-196]) and New Hampshire (215 per 100 000 [183-271]) and the highest in Arizona (581 per 100 000 [509-672]) and Washington, DC (526 per 100 000 [425-631]). A lower poverty rate, higher mean number of years of education, and a greater proportion of people expressing interpersonal trust were statistically associated with lower infection and death rates, and states where larger percentages of the population identify as Black (non-Hispanic) or Hispanic were associated with higher cumulative death rates. Access to quality health care (measured by the IHME's Healthcare Access and Quality Index) was associated with fewer total COVID-19 deaths and SARS-CoV-2 infections, but higher public health spending and more public health personnel per capita were not, at the state level. The political affiliation of the state governor was not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 death rates, but worse COVID-19 outcomes were associated with the proportion of a state's voters who voted for the 2020 Republican presidential candidate. State governments' uses of protective mandates were associated with lower infection rates, as were mask use, lower mobility, and higher vaccination rate, while vaccination rates were associated with lower death rates. State GDP and student reading test scores were not associated with state COVD-19 policy responses, infection rates, or death rates. Employment, however, had a statistically significant relationship with restaurant closures and greater infections and deaths: on average, 1574 (95% UI 884-7107) additional infections per 10 000 population were associated in states with a one percentage point increase in employment rate. Several policy mandates and protective behaviours were associated with lower fourth-grade mathematics test scores, but our study results did not find a link to state-level estimates of school closures. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 magnified the polarisation and persistent social, economic, and racial inequities that already existed across US society, but the next pandemic threat need not do the same. US states that mitigated those structural inequalities, deployed science-based interventions such as vaccination and targeted vaccine mandates, and promoted their adoption across society were able to match the best-performing nations in minimising COVID-19 death rates. These findings could contribute to the design and targeting of clinical and policy interventions to facilitate better health outcomes in future crises. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, J and E Nordstrom, and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Quantifying the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on gender equality on health, social, and economic indicators: a comprehensive review of data from March, 2020, to September, 2021.

BACKGROUND: Gender is emerging as a significant factor in the social, economic, and health effects of COVID-19. However, most existing studies have focused on its direct impact on health. Here, we aimed to explore the indirect effects of COVID-19 on gender disparities globally. METHODS: We reviewed publicly available datasets with information on indicators related to vaccine hesitancy and uptake, health care services, economic and work-related concerns, education, and safety at home and in the community. We used mixed effects regression, Gaussian process regression, and bootstrapping to synthesise all data sources. We accounted for uncertainty in the underlying data and modelling process. We then used mixed effects logistic regression to explore gender gaps globally and by region. FINDINGS: Between March, 2020, and September, 2021, women were more likely to report employment loss (26·0% [95% uncertainty interval 23·8-28·8, by September, 2021) than men (20·4% [18·2-22·9], by September, 2021), as well as forgoing work to care for others (ratio of women to men: 1·8 by March, 2020, and 2·4 by September, 2021). Women and girls were 1·21 times (1·20-1·21) more likely than men and boys to report dropping out of school for reasons other than school closures. Women were also 1·23 (1·22-1·23) times more likely than men to report that gender-based violence had increased during the pandemic. By September 2021, women and men did not differ significantly in vaccine hesitancy or uptake. INTERPRETATION: The most significant gender gaps identified in our study show intensified levels of pre-existing widespread inequalities between women and men during the COVID-19 pandemic. Political and social leaders should prioritise policies that enable and encourage women to participate in the labour force and continue their education, thereby equipping and enabling them with greater ability to overcome the barriers they face. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Impact of the Salud Mesoamerica Initiative on delivery care choices in Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.

BACKGROUND: The Salud Mesoamérica Initiative (SMI) is a public-private collaboration aimed to improve maternal and child health conditions in the poorest populations of Mesoamerica through a results-based aid mechanism. We assess the impact of SMI on the staffing and availability of equipment and supplies for delivery care, the proportion of institutional deliveries, and the proportion of women who choose a facility other than the one closest to their locality of residence for delivery. METHODS: We used a quasi-experimental design, including baseline and follow-up measurements between 2013 and 2018 in intervention and comparison areas of Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Honduras. We collected information on 8754 births linked to the health facility closest to the mother's locality of residence and the facility where the delivery took place (if attended in a health facility). We fit difference-in-difference models, adjusting for women's characteristics (age, parity, education), household characteristics, exposure to health promotion interventions, health facility level, and country. RESULTS: Equipment, inputs, and staffing of facilities improved after the Initiative in both intervention and comparison areas. After adjustment for covariates, institutional delivery increased between baseline and follow-up by 3.1 percentage points (ß = 0.031, 95% CI -0.03, 0.09) more in intervention areas than in comparison areas. The proportion of women in intervention areas who chose a facility other than their closest one to attend the delivery decreased between baseline and follow-up by 13 percentage points (ß = - 0.130, 95% CI -0.23, - 0.03) more than in the comparison group. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that women in intervention areas of SMI are more likely to go to their closest facility to attend delivery after the Initiative has improved facilities' capacity, suggesting that results-based aid initiatives targeting poor populations, like SMI, can increase the use of facilities closest to the place of residence for delivery care services. This should be considered in the design of interventions after the COVID-19 pandemic may have changed health and social conditions.

Reducing Cardiovascular Disparities Through Community-Engaged Implementation Research: A National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Workshop Report.

Cardiovascular disparities remain pervasive in the United States. Unequal disease burden is evident among population groups based on sex, race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, educational attainment, nativity, or geography. Despite the significant declines in cardiovascular disease mortality rates in all demographic groups during the last 50 years, large disparities remain by sex, race, ethnicity, and geography. Recent data from modeling studies, linked micromap plots, and small-area analyses also demonstrate prominent variation in cardiovascular disease mortality rates across states and counties, with an especially high disease burden in the southeastern United States and Appalachia. Despite these continued disparities, few large-scale intervention studies have been conducted in these high-burden populations to examine the feasibility of reducing or eliminating cardiovascular disparities. To address this challenge, on June 22 and 23, 2017, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute convened experts from a broad range of biomedical, behavioral, environmental, implementation, and social science backgrounds to summarize the current state of knowledge of cardiovascular disease disparities and propose intervention strategies aligned with the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute mission. This report presents the themes, challenges, opportunities, available resources, and recommended actions discussed at the workshop.

Perceptions of and barriers to family planning services in the poorest regions of Chiapas, Mexico: a qualitative study of men, women, and adolescents.

BACKGROUND: In the poorest regions of Chiapas, Mexico, 50.2% of women in need of contraceptives do not use any modern method. A qualitative study was needed to design effective and culturally appropriate interventions. METHODS: We used purposive maximum-variation sampling to select eight municipalities with a high proportion of residents in the poorest wealth quintile, including urban, rural, indigenous, and non-indigenous communities. We conducted 44 focus group discussions with 292 women, adolescent women, and men using semi-structured topic guides. We analyzed the data through recursive abstraction. RESULTS: There were intergenerational and cultural gaps in the acceptability of family planning, and in some communities family planning use was greatly limited by gender roles and religious objections to contraception. Men strongly influenced family planning choices in many households, but were largely unreached by outreach and education programs due to their work hours. Respondents were aware of many modern methods but often lacked deeper knowledge and held misconceptions about long-term fertility risks posed by some hormonal methods. Acute physical side effects also dissuaded use. The implant was a new and highly acceptable method due to ease of use, low upkeep, and minimal side effects; however, it was perceived as subject to stock-outs. Adolescent women reported being refused services at health facilities and requested more reproductive health information from their parents and schools. Mass and social media are growing sources of reproductive health information. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identifies a number of barriers to family planning that have yet to be adequately addressed by existing programs in Chiapas' poorest regions, and calls for reinvigorated efforts to provide effective, acceptable, and culturally appropriate interventions for these communities.

Trends in the burden of most common obesity-related cancers in 16 Southern Africa development community countries, 1990-2019. Findings from the global burden of disease study.

Background: Obesity-related cancers in the 16 Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries is quite prominent. The changes and time trends of the burden of obesity-related cancers in developing countries like SADC remain largely unknown. A descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to assess the burden of obesity-related cancers, (liver, esophageal, breast, prostate, colon/rectal, leukemia, ovarian, uterine, pancreatic, kidney, gallbladder/biliary tract, and thyroid cancers) in SADC countries. Methods: Data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases Study was used. Deaths extracted from vital registration, verbal autopsies and ICD codes. Cancer-type, mortality and prevalence per 100,000 population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and Spatio-Temporal Gaussian process with mixed effects regression models. Annual rates of change (AROCs) between 1990 and 2019 and the corresponding UIs were calculated. Results: The top age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 in 2019 for males were leukemia, 20.1(14.4-26.4), esophageal cancer, 15.1 (11.2-19.1), and colon and rectal cancer, 10.3 (8.6-12.6). For females, breast cancer, 20.6 (16.6-25.0), leukemia, 17.1 (11.4-23.7), and esophageal cancer, 8.3 (5.5-10.7), had the leading mortality rates. For males, AROC substantial (p < 0.05) increase for kidney cancer for 11 of the countries (AROC from 0.41% to 1.24%), colon cancer for eight of the countries (from 0.39% to 0.92%), and pancreatic cancer for seven countries (from 0.26% to 1.01%). In females, AROC showed substantial increase for pancreatic cancer for 13 of the countries from (0.34%-1.67%), nine countries for kidney cancer (from 0.27% to 1.02%), seven countries each for breast cancer (0.35%-1.13%), and ovarian cancer (from 0.33% to 1.21%). Conclusions: There is need for location-specific and culturally appropriate strategies for better nutrition and weight control, and improved screening for all cancers. Health promotion messaging should target kidney, colon, pancreatic, and breast cancers and encourage clinically tested methods of reducing BMI such as increasing personal physical activity and adoption of effective dietary regimes.

Health of the world's adolescents: a synthesis of internationally comparable data.

Adolescence and young adulthood offer opportunities for health gains both through prevention and early clinical intervention. Yet development of health information systems to support this work has been weak and so far lagged behind those for early childhood and adulthood. With falls in the number of deaths in earlier childhood in many countries and a shifting emphasis to non-communicable disease risks, injuries, and mental health, there are good reasons to assess the present sources of health information for young people. We derive indicators from the conceptual framework for the Series on adolescent health and assess the available data to describe them. We selected indicators for their public health importance and their coverage of major health outcomes in young people, health risk behaviours and states, risk and protective factors, social role transitions relevant to health, and health service inputs. We then specify definitions that maximise international comparability. Even with this optimisation of data usage, only seven of the 25 indicators, covered at least 50% of the world's adolescents. The worst adolescent health profiles are in sub-Saharan Africa, with persisting high mortality from maternal and infectious causes. Risks for non-communicable diseases are spreading rapidly, with the highest rates of tobacco use and overweight, and lowest rates of physical activity, predominantly in adolescents living in low-income and middle-income countries. Even for present global health agendas, such as HIV infection and maternal mortality, data sources are incomplete for adolescents. We propose a series of steps that include better coordination and use of data collected across countries, greater harmonisation of school-based surveys, further development of strategies for socially marginalised youth, targeted research into the validity and use of these health indicators, advocating for adolescent-health information within new global health initiatives, and a recommendation that every country produce a regular report on the health of its adolescents.

Indirect Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness for the Prevention of Rotavirus Hospitalization: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Two rotavirus vaccines, RotaTeq and Rotarix, are licensed for global use; however, the protection they confer to unvaccinated individuals through indirect effects remains unknown. We systematically reviewed the literature and quantified indirect rotavirus vaccine effectiveness (VE) for preventing rotavirus hospitalization in children aged less than 5 years. From 148 identified abstracts, 14 studies met our eligibility criteria. In our main analysis using a random-effects model, indirect rotavirus VE was 48% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 39-55%). In a subgroup analysis by country income level, indirect VE was greater in high-income countries (52%; 95% CI: 43-60%) than in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (25%; 95% CI: 5-41%). In a sensitivity analysis using a quality-effects model, the indirect VE in LMICs was not statistically significant (25%; 95% CI: 0-44%). Our findings highlight the importance of increasing rotavirus vaccine coverage, particularly in LMICs where evidence for indirect VE is limited and rotavirus burden is high.

Slaying little dragons: the impact of the Guinea Worm Eradication Program on dracunculiasis disability averted from 1990 to 2016.

Background: The objective of this study was to document the worldwide decline of dracunculiasis (Guinea worm disease, GWD) burden, expressed as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), from 1990 to 2016, as estimated in the Global Burden of Disease study 2016 (GBD 2016). While the annual number of cases of GWD have been consistently reported by WHO since the 1990s, the burden of disability due to GWD has not previously been quantified in GBD. Methods: The incidence of GWD was modeled for each endemic country using annual national case reports. A literature search was conducted to characterize the presentation of GWD, translate the clinical symptoms into health sequelae, and then assign an average duration to the infection. Prevalence measures by sequelae were multiplied by disability weights to estimate DALYs. Results: The total DALYs attributed to GWD across all endemic countries (n=21) in 1990 was 50,725 (95% UI: 35,265-69,197) and decreased to 0.9 (95% UI: 0.5-1.4) in 2016. A cumulative total of 12,900 DALYs were attributable to GWD from 1990 to 2016. Conclusions: Using 1990 estimates of burden propagated forward, this analysis suggests that between 990,000 to 1.9 million DALYs have been averted as a result of the eradication program over the past 27 years.

Management of hepatocellular in the United States.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of cancer burden globally. In the United States, the incidence of HCC is forecast to continue to rise for the next 15 years. Patients with HCC vary markedly owing to heterogeneous tumor characteristics and concomitant liver dysfunction. In the United States and Europe, HCC is staged and managed according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system. For very early and early stage HCC, or BCLC 0/A, liver transplant is the optimal treatment option. Liver resection and radiofrequency or microwave ablation are alternative treatment options. For intermediate stage HCC, or BCLC B, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the standard of care. An alternative locoregional therapy, transarterial radioembolization using yttrium-90, has shown comparable outcomes with TACE and may be used in patients for whom TACE is contraindicated. For advanced stage HCC, or BCLC C, systemic chemotherapy with sorafenib, a multikinase inhibitor, is the only evidence-based treatment option available. Another multikinase inhibitor, regorafenib, was recently approved as a second-line therapy for this patient group. Randomized clinical trials investigating other agents in enriched patient groups and novel therapeutics including checkpoint inhibitors are underway. Patient with prohibitive performance status and/or end stage liver dysfunction are classified terminal stage HCC, or BCLC D, and are managed with best supportive care. The future direction for the management of HCC will rely on continuing efforts to uncover molecular pathways and actionable genetic aberrations in HCC.

Low uptake of periodic health examinations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2013.

INTRODUCTION: It is unknown whether Saudis receive health examinations periodically. To inform health authorities on the health-seeking behavior of the Saudi population, we investigated patterns of periodic health examination (PHE) use by Saudis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a nationally representative multistage survey of individuals aged 15 years or older on sociodemographic characteristics, healthcare utilization, and self-reported chronic conditions. We used a backward elimination multivariate logistic regression model to measure associations between PHE and sociodemographic, behavioral, and health characteristics. RESULTS: Between April and June 2013, a total of 12,000 households were contacted, and 10,735 participants completed the survey (response rate of 89.4%). Among participants, 2542 (22.9%), representing more than 2.7 million Saudis aged 15 years or older, received a PHE during the past 2 years. Moreover, 7463 (73.5%) participants, representing 9.1 million Saudis, visited a healthcare setting in the past 2 years due to illness or injury. The likelihood of receiving a PHE in the past 2 years increased with age, education, being married, consumption of five servings of fruits and vegetables per day, diagnoses of prediabetes, diabetes, or hypercholesterolemia, and a visit to a healthcare setting within the last 2 years due to an illness or an injury. DISCUSSION: This is the first national study to investigate the use of PHE in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) where healthcare is freely available. Few Saudis seek preventive healthcare and most healthcare visits are for injuries or sickness. KSA may reduce its health expenditures by routinizing PHE and detecting chronic conditions at early stages.

Prioritization MICA: a Web-based application to prioritize public health resources.

Although setting priorities is an important step in making public health policy, the benefit of using epidemiology to prioritize scarce public health resources has not been fully recognized. This situation is mostly due to the complexity of proposed models for setting priorities. We describe a public health priority setting model, Missouri Information for Community Assessment Priority Setting Model (Priority MICA), which uses epidemiologic measures available in most surveillance systems across the United States. Priority MICA uses data from birth and death certificates, hospital discharges, emergency departments, risk factors from the Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System, and eight epidemiologic measures to construct six priority criteria: size (the number of emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and deaths), severity (number of deaths of people younger than 65), urgency (trends in deaths and hospital morbidity), preventability (evidence-based score), community support (score of social support for preventive action), and racial-disparity (race comparison through death and morbidity rate ratio). Priority MICA is part of a Web-based interactive tool that makes available data from a wide variety of surveillance systems (http://www.dhss.mo.gov/MICA). The top 10 priority diseases determined by Priority MICA were compared to a more traditional method of ranking diseases by mortality rates. Using the additional criteria in Priority MICA identified four more priority diseases than were identified using just mortality while the ranking of the other six priority diseases differed between methods.