RESUMO
Background: Long COVID is a debilitating multisystem condition. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of long COVID in the adult population of Scotland, and to identify risk factors associated with its development. Methods: In this national, retrospective, observational cohort study, we analysed electronic health records (EHRs) for all adults (≥18 years) registered with a general medical practice and resident in Scotland between March 1, 2020, and October 26, 2022 (98-99% of the population). We linked data from primary care, secondary care, laboratory testing and prescribing. Four outcome measures were used to identify long COVID: clinical codes, free text in primary care records, free text on sick notes, and a novel operational definition. The operational definition was developed using Poisson regression to identify clinical encounters indicative of long COVID from a sample of negative and positive COVID-19 cases matched on time-varying propensity to test positive for SARS-CoV-2. Possible risk factors for long COVID were identified by stratifying descriptive statistics by long COVID status. Findings: Of 4,676,390 participants, 81,219 (1.7%) were identified as having long COVID. Clinical codes identified the fewest cases (n = 1,092, 0.02%), followed by free text (n = 8,368, 0.2%), sick notes (n = 14,469, 0.3%), and the operational definition (n = 64,193, 1.4%). There was limited overlap in cases identified by the measures; however, temporal trends and patient characteristics were consistent across measures. Compared with the general population, a higher proportion of people with long COVID were female (65.1% versus 50.4%), aged 38-67 (63.7% versus 48.9%), overweight or obese (45.7% versus 29.4%), had one or more comorbidities (52.7% versus 36.0%), were immunosuppressed (6.9% versus 3.2%), shielding (7.9% versus 3.4%), or hospitalised within 28 days of testing positive (8.8% versus 3.3%%), and had tested positive before Omicron became the dominant variant (44.9% versus 35.9%). The operational definition identified long COVID cases with combinations of clinical encounters (from four symptoms, six investigation types, and seven management strategies) recorded in EHRs within 4-26 weeks of a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. These combinations were significantly (p < 0.0001) more prevalent in positive COVID-19 patients than in matched negative controls. In a case-crossover analysis, 16.4% of those identified by the operational definition had similar healthcare patterns recorded before testing positive. Interpretation: The prevalence of long COVID presenting in general practice was estimated to be 0.02-1.7%, depending on the measure used. Due to challenges in diagnosing long COVID and inconsistent recording of information in EHRs, the true prevalence of long COVID is likely to be higher. The operational definition provided a novel approach but relied on a restricted set of symptoms and may misclassify individuals with pre-existing health conditions. Further research is needed to refine and validate this approach. Funding: Chief Scientist Office (Scotland), Medical Research Council, and BREATHE.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: The majority of medicines prescribed for children are prescribed in primary care for common acute and chronic conditions. This is in contrast to prescribing in secondary care where the population of children admitted is small but where a large number of different medicines are prescribed to treat more serious and less common conditions. METHODS: Data on prescribing was extracted from the General Practice Administration System for Scotland (GPASS) for the year November 1999 to October 2000 and prescribing patterns for children aged 0-16 years expressed as percentages. A comparison of age specific consultations for asthma, as an example of a common paediatric condition, was also made between two separate general practice data sets, the General Practice Research Database (GRPD) and the continuous morbidity recording (CMR) subset of GPASS. RESULTS: Of 214 medicines investigated for unlicensed and off-label prescribing no unlicensed prescribing was identified. Off-label prescribing due to age was most common among younger and older children. The most common reasons for off-label prescriptions were, in order of frequency, lower than recommended dose, higher than recommended dose, below the recommended age, and unlicensed formulation. Age and gender specific consultations for asthma were similar in the two representative databases, GPRD and CMR, both showing disappearance of the male predominance in the teenage years. CONCLUSIONS: Large primary care data sets available within a unified health care system such as the UK National Health Service (NHS) are likely to be broadly compatible and produce similar results. The prescribing of off-label medicines to children is common in primary care, most commonly due to prescribing out with the recommended dosage regimen.